2024 Vermont gubernatorial election
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The 2024 Vermont gubernatorial election was held on November 5, 2024, to elect the governor of Vermont, concurrently with the 2024 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to the United States Senate and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican Governor Phil Scott won re-election to a fifth term, defeating the Democratic nominee, Vermont Commission on Women co-chair Esther Charlestin.[1][2][3] Primary elections took place on August 13, 2024.[4]
Being frequently ranked as the nation's most popular governor,[5][6][7] Scott has won re-election by continually increasing margins since taking office. Despite Vermont's partisan lean toward the Democratic Party, Scott was expected to easily win.
Along with New Hampshire, this race was one of two Republican-held governorships up for election in 2024 in a state carried by Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election. This was the best Republican performance in a Vermont gubernatorial election since 1946, with Scott winning every municipality (as he did in 2022)[8] and Scott's coattails allowed Republicans to break Democratic supermajorities in the state legislature.
Republican primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Phil Scott, incumbent governor (2017–present)[9]
Withdrawn
[edit]- Peter Duval, former Underhill selectman and independent candidate for governor in 2022 (ran as a Democrat)[10]
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Phil Scott (incumbent) | 23,173 | 92.75% | |
| Republican | Undervotes[a] | 1,357 | 5.43% | |
| Write-in | 448 | 1.79% | ||
| Republican | Overvotes | 7 | 0.03% | |
| Total votes | 23,565 | 100.00% | ||
Democratic primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Esther Charlestin, co-chair of the Vermont Commission on Women and former Middlebury selectman[12]
Eliminated in primary
[edit]Declined
[edit]- Howard Dean, former governor (1991–2003) and former chair of the Democratic National Committee (2005–2009)[14]
- Caleb Elder, state representative (2018–present)[15] (running for state senate)[16]
- Miro Weinberger, former mayor of Burlington (2012–2024)[17]
- David Zuckerman, Lieutenant Governor of Vermont (2017–2021, 2023–present) and nominee for governor in 2020 (running for re-election)[18]
Endorsements
[edit]Esther Charlestin
Political parties
Results
[edit]
Charlestin
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Esther Charlestin | 24,007 | 46.19% | |
| Democratic | Undervotes[a] | 13,404 | 25.79% | |
| Democratic | Peter Duval | 9,377 | 18.04% | |
| Republican | Phil Scott (write-in) | 4,558 | 8.77% | |
| Write-in | Misc. Write-ins | 601 | 1.56% | |
| Democratic | Overvotes | 22 | 0.04% | |
| Total votes | 51,969 | 100% | ||
Progressive primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Withdrew after nomination
[edit]Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Progressive | Marielle Blais | 268 | 64.73% | |
| Progressive | Undervotes[a] | 71 | 17.11% | |
| Republican | Phil Scott (write-in) | 35 | 8.45% | |
| Democratic | Esther Charlestin (write-in) | 21 | 5.07% | |
| Write-in | Misc. Write-ins | 19 | 4.59% | |
| Total votes | 414 | 100% | ||
Independent and third party candidates
[edit]Declared
[edit]- June Goodband (Green Mountain Peace and Justice Party), counselor[20]
- Kevin Hoyt (Independent), videographer and perennial candidate[20]
- Poa Mutino (Independent), program manager[21]
General election
[edit]Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[22] | Solid R | June 13, 2024 |
| Inside Elections[23] | Solid R | July 14, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[24] | Safe R | June 4, 2024 |
| RCP[25] | Solid R | July 13, 2024 |
| Elections Daily[26] | Safe R | July 12, 2023 |
| CNalysis[27] | Solid R | August 17, 2024 |
Polling
[edit]| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Phil Scott (R) |
Esther Charlestin (D) |
Kevin Hoyt (I) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire[28] | October 29 – November 2, 2024 | 1,167 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 65% | 26% | 2% | 2%[c] | 4% |
| University of New Hampshire[29] | August 15–19, 2024 | 924 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 56% | 28% | 5% | 2%[d] | 10% |
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Phil Scott (incumbent) | 266,439 | 73.43% | +2.52% | |
| Democratic/Progressive | Esther Charlestin | 79,217 | 21.83% | −2.11% | |
| Independent | Kevin Hoyt | 9,368 | 2.58% | +0.52% | |
| Green Mountain Peace and Justice | June Goodband | 4,512 | 1.24% | N/A | |
| Independent | Eli "Poa" Mutino | 2,414 | 0.67% | N/A | |
| Write-in | 891 | 0.25% | −0.21 | ||
| Total votes | 362,841 | 100.0% | |||
| Republican hold | |||||
Notes
[edit]References
[edit]- ^ Kinzel, Bob (October 19, 2023). "If Gov. Phil Scott runs for reelection, he will remain a Republican". Vermont Public. Retrieved November 13, 2023.
- ^ Mearhoff, Sarah (August 13, 2024). "Esther Charlestin wins Democratic gubernatorial nod while statewide incumbents cruise to primary victories". VTDigger. Retrieved November 3, 2024.
- ^ Thomas, Steff Danielle (November 5, 2024). "GOP Gov. Phil Scott wins reelection in blue Vermont". The Hill. Retrieved November 17, 2024.
- ^ "2024 State Primary Election Dates". www.ncsl.org. Retrieved August 6, 2023.
- ^ "Poll finds Scott retains highest approval rating among governors in US". WCAX News. July 24, 2023. Retrieved March 16, 2024.
- ^ Mueller, Julia (January 12, 2023). "Here are America's most popular and least popular governors". The Hill. Retrieved March 16, 2024.
- ^ MultiState. "Decoding 2023 Gubernatorial Approval Ratings". MultiState. Retrieved March 16, 2024.
- ^ McDonald, Zoe. "Vermont election updates: Scott, Rodgers and legislative candidates give strong showing". Vermont Public. Retrieved November 17, 2024.
- ^ Mearhoff, Sarah (May 11, 2024). "Phil Scott to seek 5th term as governor". VTDigger. Retrieved May 11, 2024.
- ^ a b Mearhoff, Sarah (August 5, 2024). "Several Democratic primaries feature candidates with conservative ties". VTDigger. Retrieved August 7, 2024.
- ^ a b c Secretary of State of Vermont (August 13, 2024). "Vermont Election Night Results". electionresults.vermont.gov. Retrieved August 17, 2024.
- ^ Stolk, Babette (January 5, 2024). "Middlebury educator and consultant Esther Charlestin announces run for governor". VTDigger. Retrieved January 8, 2024.
- ^ a b Mearhoff, Sarah (May 30, 2024). "As filing deadline passes, Vermont appears set for a sleepier statewide election season". VTDigger. Retrieved May 31, 2024.
- ^ Mearhoff, Sarah (May 20, 2024). "Howard Dean will not run for governor of Vermont". VTDigger. Retrieved May 20, 2024.
- ^ Mearhoff, Sarah (October 17, 2023). "State Rep. Caleb Elder floats a 2024 race for governor". VTDigger. Retrieved October 18, 2023.
- ^ Flowers, John (March 15, 2024). "Starksboro Rep. Caleb Elder to run for state Senate". Addison County Independent. Retrieved March 30, 2024.
- ^ Mearhoff, Sarah (May 20, 2024). "Howard Dean, Miro Weinberger rule out runs for governor of Vermont". VTDigger. Retrieved May 20, 2024.
- ^ Mearhoff, Sarah (May 2, 2024). "David Zuckerman is seeking reelection to lieutenant governor's office". VTDigger. Retrieved May 2, 2024.
With his reelection announcement Thursday, Zuckerman largely quashed any rumors that he would try to make the jump to higher office this year, either again to the governor's office or to Washington
- ^ Mearhoff, Sarah (August 21, 2024). "With primary results certified, Vermont's 2024 candidates are set". VTDigger. Retrieved August 21, 2024.
- ^ a b "General Election Candidates". Vermont Secretary of State. May 13, 2024.
- ^ Cusanelli, Michael (May 20, 2024). "Political newcomer Poa Mutino announces campaign to become governor of Vermont". WPTZ. Retrieved May 30, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Governor Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved July 24, 2023.
- ^ "Gubernatorial Ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved July 24, 2023.
- ^ "2024 Gubernatorial race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved July 24, 2023.
- ^ "2024 Governor Races". www.realclearpolling.com. Retrieved July 16, 2024.
- ^ "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. July 22, 2023. Retrieved July 24, 2023.
- ^ "Governor Forecasts". CNalysis. Retrieved August 17, 2024.
- ^ University of New Hampshire
- ^ University of New Hampshire
- ^ "2024 General Election Canvass Report" (PDF). VT SOS. Retrieved December 10, 2024.
External links
[edit]Official campaign websites