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2024 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania

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Main article: 2024 United States Senate elections
Not to be confused with 2024 Pennsylvania Senate election.

2024 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania
← 2018 November 5, 2024 2030 →
 
Nominee Dave McCormick Bob Casey Jr.
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 3,399,295 3,384,180
Percentage 48.82% 48.60%
County results
McCormick:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Casey:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
U.S. senator before election

Bob Casey Jr.
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Dave McCormick
Republican

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The 2024 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Pennsylvania. Incumbent Democratic Senator Bob Casey Jr. lost re-election to a fourth term, being defeated by Republican nominee Dave McCormick in what was considered a major upset.[1] Most predictions gave Casey a slight advantage, and Casey narrowly led in most polls. Along with Sherrod Brown in Ohio and Jon Tester in Montana, Casey was one of three incumbent Senators to lose re-election in 2024.

The primary election took place on April 23, 2024.[2] The election was considered essential for Democrats' chances to retain their majority in 2024.[3]

The Associated Press and Fox News declared McCormick the winner on November 7,[4] while Decision Desk HQ called the race for McCormick on November 14.[5] CNN, NBC, ABC, and CBS all called the race for McCormick on November 21; Casey conceded the race later that day.[6] A recount confirmed the result of the election.[7]

This was Pennsylvania's closest US Senate election since the passage of the Seventeenth Amendment, as well as the closest Senate election of the 2024 cycle. McCormick was the only Republican challenger to win in a state flipped by Trump in the 2024 presidential election. The other three Republican Senate gains were in states Trump had won in all three of his runs.

Notably, the margin of just 0.22% between the Republican and Democratic candidates is fewer than the votes received by either the Libertarian candidate, John Thomas (1.29% of the vote), the Green candidate, Leila Hazou (0.95% of the vote), or the Constitution candidate, Marty Selker (0.34% of the vote).

This election made Pennsylvania one of several states to have a younger senior senator (John Fetterman) and an older junior senator (McCormick). McCormick was sworn in on January 3, 2025.

Background

[edit]

Pennsylvania is considered to be a purple state at the federal level, especially since in the 2020 presidential election, Joe Biden carried Pennsylvania by about 1.2 percentage points. Democrats had controlled both U.S. Senate seats, the governorship, a majority of its U.S. House delegation, and the Pennsylvania House of Representatives. The last time Republicans won a U.S. Senate seat in Pennsylvania was in 2016.[8][9][10][11]

Senator Bob Casey Jr. was first elected in the blue wave of 2006, defeating then-incumbent Senator Rick Santorum by about 17 percentage points. He was re-elected in 2012 by 9 percentage points (when he ran ahead of Obama by almost 4 points) and in the blue wave of 2018 by 13 percentage points.[12][13][14] Given these three decisive victories, Casey's fourth term appeared inevitable for much of the race. However, tightening polls in the final weeks indicated a closer contest, even as Casey was largely considered the favorite to win.[15]

Democratic primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Disqualified

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Bob Casey Jr.

Executive officials

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

Statewide officials

Individuals

Political parties

Organizations

Labor unions

Newspapers

Fundraising

[edit]
Campaign finance reports as of April 15, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Bob Casey Jr. (D) $23,790,263 $12,391,802 $11,886,480
Source: Federal Election Commission[53]

Results

[edit]
Democratic primary results[54]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Bob Casey Jr. (incumbent) 1,024,545 100.00%
Total votes 1,024,545 100.00%

Republican primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Withdrawn

[edit]

Disqualified

[edit]
  • Joseph Vodvarka, spring manufacturer and perennial candidate[57]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Dave McCormick

Executive Branch officials

Federal officials

State cabinet officials

U.S senators

U.S. representatives

State senators

Local officials

  • Sam DeMarco, at-large Allegheny County councilor (2016–present) and chair of the Allegheny County Republican Party (2018–present)[75]

Party officials

Organizations

Political parties

Individuals

Fundraising

[edit]
Campaign finance reports as of April 15, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Dave McCormick (R) $11,052,879 $4,660,701 $6,399,998
Source: Federal Election Commission[53]

Polling

[edit]
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Kathy
Barnette 		Doug
Mastriano 		David
McCormick 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[84] March 9–10, 2023 616 (LV) – 11% 39% 21% 29%
– – 42% 28% 29%

Results

[edit]
Republican primary results[54]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Dave McCormick 878,320 100.00%
Total votes 878,320 100.00%

Third parties

[edit]

Libertarian convention

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]
  • John Thomas, educator[85]

Eliminated at convention

[edit]
  • Erik Gerhardt, carpenter, nominee for U.S. Senate in 2022, and candidate for president in 2020[86]

Green Party

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]
  • Leila Hazou, shop owner[87]

Constitution Party

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]
  • Bernard Selker, truck driver[87]

American Solidarity Party

[edit]

Disqualified

[edit]

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[89] Tossup October 21, 2024
Inside Elections[90] Tilt D November 9, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[91] Lean D June 13, 2024
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[92] Lean D June 8, 2024
Elections Daily[93] Lean D October 24, 2024
CNalysis[94] Lean D November 21, 2023
RealClearPolitics[95] Tossup August 5, 2024
Split Ticket[96] Lean D October 23, 2024
538[97] Lean D October 28, 2024

Post-primary endorsements

[edit]
Bob Casey Jr. (D)

Executive branch officials

Dave McCormick (R)

Former U.S. executive officials

U.S. Senators

Individuals

John Thomas (L)

Individuals

Fundraising

[edit]
Campaign finance reports as of October 16, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Bob Casey (D) $52,879,737 $50,545,793 $2,821,961
Dave McCormick (R) $27,698,652[b] $26,030,736 $1,675,736
Source: Federal Election Commission[53]

Debates

[edit]
2024 Pennsylvania U.S. Senate election debates
No. Date Host Moderator Link Democratic Republican
Key:
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Not invited   I  Invited  W  Withdrawn
Casey McCormick
1 October 3, 2024 WHTM-TV Dennis Owens YouTube P P
2 October 15, 2024 WPVI-TV Matt O'Donnell, Sharrie Williams, Ilia Garcia C-SPAN P P

Polling

[edit]

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Bob
Casey Jr. (D) 		Dave
McCormick (R) 		Undecided
[c] 		Margin
538[106] through November 4, 2024 November 4, 2024 48.2% 45.4% 6.4% Casey +2.8%
RealClearPolitics[107] October 21 – November 4, 2024 November 4, 2024 48.1% 46.3% 5.6% Casey +1.8%
270toWin[108] October 24 – November 4, 2024 November 4, 2024 48.4% 45.9% 5.7% Casey +2.5%
TheHill/DDHQ[109] through November 4, 2024 November 4, 2024 48.6% 46.6% 4.8% Casey +2.0%
Average 48.3% 46.1% 5.6% Casey +2.2%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Bob
Casey Jr. (D) 		Dave
McCormick (R) 		Other Undecided
AtlasIntel[110] November 3–4, 2024 1,840 (LV) ± 2.0% 49% 47% 2% 2%
Survation[111] November 1–4, 2024 929 (LV) – 49% 42% 3%[d] 6%
Research Co.[112] November 2–3, 2024 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 48% 46% 2%[e] 4%
Patriot Polling (R)[113] November 1–3, 2024 903 (RV) ± 3.0% 50% 49% – –
The Trafalgar Group (R)[114] November 1–3, 2024 1,089 (LV) ± 2.9% 46% 47% – 7%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[115] November 1–2, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 48% 47% 2% 3%
AtlasIntel[116] November 1–2, 2024 2,049 (LV) ± 2.0% 49% 47% 3%[f] 2%
Emerson College[117][A] October 30 – November 2, 2024 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 47% – 6%
New York Times/Siena College[118][B] October 29 – November 2, 2024 1,527 (LV) ± 2.9% 50% 45% – 4%
1,527 (RV) ± 2.8% 50% 45% – 6%
Mainstreet Research/FAU[119] October 25 – November 2, 2024 699 (LV) ± 3.6% 49% 44% 1%[g] 6%
726 (RV) ± 3.6% 48% 43% 2%[h] 7%
Morning Consult[120] October 23 – November 1, 2024 1,538 (LV) ± 3.0% 46% 43% – 11%
AtlasIntel[121] October 30–31, 2024 1,738 (LV) ± 2.0% 49% 46% 3%[f] 2%
OnMessage (R)[122] October 29–31, 2024 800 (LV) – 46% 46% – 8%
Data for Progress (D)[123] October 25–31, 2024 908 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 45% 2%[i] 4%
YouGov[124][C] October 25–31, 2024 947 (LV) ± 3.5% 50% 44% – 6%
982 (RV) 50% 43% – 6%
ActiVote[125] October 14–31, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 50.5% 49.5% – –
Muhlenberg College[126][D] October 27–30, 2024 460 (LV) ± 6.0% 49% 46% 3% 1%
Suffolk University[127][E] October 27–30, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 49% 46% 2%[i] 2%
Marist College[128] October 27–30, 2024 1,400 (LV) ± 3.4% 50% 48% 1%[j] 1%
1,558 (RV) ± 3.2% 50% 48% 1%[j] 1%
Echelon Insights[129] October 27–30, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.5% 44% 47% 3%[k] 5%
The Washington Post[130] October 26–30, 2024 1,204 (LV) ± 3.1% 49% 46% 2%[l] 3%
1,204 (RV) 49% 45% 3%[m] 3%
AtlasIntel[131] October 25–29, 2024 1,229 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 47% 3%[f] 2%
Fox News[132] October 24–28, 2024 1,057 (LV) ± 3.0% 50% 48% – 1%
1,310 (RV) ± 2.5% 51% 46% 1% 2%
Quinnipiac University[133] October 24–28, 2024 2,186 (LV) ± 2.1% 50% 47% 2%[n] 1%
Monmouth University[134] October 24–28, 2024 824 (RV) ± 3.8% 45% 44% – 12%
CNN/SSRS[135] October 23–28, 2024 819 (LV) ± 4.7% 48% 45% 6%[o] 1%
CBS News/YouGov[136] October 22–28, 2024 1,249 (LV) ± 3.6% 48% 42% 3%[p] 7%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[137] October 26–27, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 47% 47% 2%[q] 4%
North Star Opinion Research (R)[138][F] October 22–26, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 42% 5%[r] 9%
UMass Lowell/YouGov[139] October 16–23, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.7% 48% 42% 3%[s] 7%
Emerson College[140][G] October 21–22, 2024 860 (LV) ± 3.3% 47% 46% 2%[t] 6%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)[141] October 18–22, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 49% 46% 2%[u] 4%
Franklin & Marshall College[142] October 9–20, 2024 583 (LV) ± 5.0% 49% 48% – 3%
794 (RV) ± 4.3% 48% 41% 5%[v] 6%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[143] October 17–19, 2024 1,084 (LV) ± 2.9% 47% 47% – 6%
AtlasIntel[144] October 12–17, 2024 2,048 (LV) ± 2.0% 47% 48% 2%[w] 3%
The Bullfinch Group[145] October 11–17, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 50% 43% – 8%
YouGov[146][H] October 7–17, 2024 1,043 (LV) ± 3.44% 50% 42% – 8%
1,062 (RV) ± 3.4% 49% 42% – 9%
Morning Consult[120] October 6–15, 2024 1,395 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 41% – 10%
New York Times/Siena College[147][B] October 7–10, 2024 857 (LV) ± 3.8% 48% 44% – 8%
857 (RV) ± 3.7% 48% 43% – 9%
American Pulse Research & Polling[148] October 2–10, 2024 1,193 (LV) ± 2.8% 48% 45% 2%[x] 5%
TIPP Insights (R)[149][F] October 7–9, 2024 803 (LV) ± 3.5% 47% 43% 1%[y] 9%
1,079 (RV) 48% 40% 1%[z] 12%
UMass Lowell/YouGov[150] October 2–9, 2024 800 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 39% 3%[aa] 10%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[151] October 7–8, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 47% 45% 2%[q] 6%
Emerson College[152][A] October 5–8, 2024 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 46% – 6%
Research Co.[153] October 5–7, 2024 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 47% 44% 1%[ab] 8%
Quinnipiac University[154] October 3–7, 2024 1,412 (LV) ± 2.6% 51% 43% 2%[ac] 5%
ActiVote[155] September 6 – October 7, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 53% 47% – –
OnMessage (R)[156][ad] September 28–29, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 45% 44% 5%[ae] 7%
Patriot Polling (R)[157] September 27–29, 2024 816 (RV) ± 3.0% 51% 48% – –
The Bullfinch Group[158][I] September 26–29, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.46% 48% 39% 12%[af] –
52% 42% 6%[ag] –
The Trafalgar Group (R)[159] September 26–29, 2024 1,090 (LV) ± 2.9% 47% 46% – 7%
Emerson College[160][G] September 27–28, 2024 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 45% – 8%
AtlasIntel[161] September 20–25, 2024 1,775 (LV) ± 2.0% 47% 45% 1%[ah] 6%
BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[162][J] September 19–25, 2024 474 (LV) – 48% 42% 3%[ai] 6%
52% 45% – 3%
Fox News[163] September 20–24, 2024 775 (LV) ± 3.5% 53% 44% 1%[aj] 2%
1,021 (RV) ± 3.0% 53% 44% 1%[aj] 2%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[164][K] September 17–24, 2024 816 (RV) ± 3.0% 49% 45% – 6%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)[165] September 16–22, 2024 700 (LV) ± 3.7% 48% 40% 1%[ak] 11%
RMG Research[166][L] September 18–20, 2024 783 (LV) ± 3.5% 50% 44% 1%[aj] 5%
Remington Research Group (R)[167][M] September 16–20, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 49% 45% – 7%
Muhlenberg College[168][D] September 16–19, 2024 450 (LV) ± 6.0% 48% 43% 5% 4%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[169][N] September 16–19, 2024 1,086 (LV) ± 2.8% 47% 41% 2%[al] 10%
UMass Lowell/YouGov[170] September 11–19, 2024 800 (LV) ± 4.0% 47% 38% 3%[aa] 13%
Emerson College[171][A] September 15–18, 2024 880 (LV) ± 3.2% 47% 42% – 11%
MassINC Polling Group[172][O] September 12–18, 2024 800 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 42% 2%[am] 6%
Morning Consult[120] September 9–18, 2024 1,756 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 40% – 11%
Marist College[173] September 12–17, 2024 1,663 (RV) ± 2.0% 52% 46% 1%[j] 1%
1,476 (LV) ± 3.2% 52% 47% – 1%
Quinnipiac University[174] September 12–16, 2024 1,331 (LV) ± 2.7% 52% 43% 1%[an] 3%
The Washington Post[175] September 12–16, 2024 1,003 (LV) ± 3.6% 47% 46% 7%[ao] –
48% 48% 5%[ap] –
New York Times/Siena College[176][B] September 11–16, 2024 1,082 (RV) ± 4.1% 48% 39% – 13%
1,082 (LV) ± 4.3% 49% 40% – 11%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[177] September 14–15, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 49% 44% 2%[q] 5%
Franklin & Marshall College[178] September 4–15, 2024 890 (RV) ± 4.1% 48% 40% 3%[aq] 10%
Suffolk University[179][E] September 11–14, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 47% 43% 2%[ar] 8%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[180][N] September 6–9, 2024 801 (LV) ± 3.0% 44% 36% 5%[as] 14%
Morning Consult[120] August 30 – September 8, 2024 1,910 (LV) ± 2.0% 49% 40% – 11%
co/efficient (R)[181] September 4–6, 2024 889 (LV) ± 3.29% 45% 36% – 19%
CBS News/YouGov[182] September 3–6, 2024 1,076 (LV) ± 3.4% 48% 41% 3%[at] 8%
YouGov[183][C] August 23 – September 3, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.6% 52% 41% – 8%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[184] August 28–30, 2024 1,082 (LV) ± 2.9% 46% 45% – 8%
CNN/SRSS[185] August 23–29, 2024 789 (LV) ± 4.7% 46% 46% 7%[au] 1%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[186][N] August 25–28, 2024 1,071 (LV) ± 2.8% 44% 38% 4%[av] 14%
Emerson College[187][A] August 25–28, 2024 950 (LV) ± 3.1% 48% 44% – 8%
SoCal Strategies (R)[188][P] August 23, 2024 713 (LV) – 47% 41% – 12%
800 (RV) – 45% 40% – 15%
ActiVote[189] August 3–23, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 55% 45% – –
Fabrizio Ward (R)[190][Q] August 19–21, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 46% 43% – 11%
Cygnal (R)[191] August 14–15, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.4% 46% 42% – 12%
42% 38% 7%[aw] 13%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[192][N] August 12–15, 2024 825 (LV) ± 3.2% 44% 36% 1%[ax] 17%
Emerson College[193] August 13–14, 2024 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 44% – 8%
Quinnipiac University[194] August 8–12, 2024 1,738 (LV) ± 2.4% 52% 44% 1%[ay] 3%
The Bullfinch Group[195][R] August 8–11, 2024 500 (RV) ± 4.38% 51% 39% – 10%
Franklin & Marshall College[196] July 31 – August 11, 2024 920 (RV) ± 3.8% 48% 36% 3%[az] 13%
New York Times/Siena College[197] August 6–9, 2024 693 (RV) ± 4.0% 50% 36% – 14%
693 (LV) ± 4.2% 51% 37% – 11%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[198][N] July 31 – August 3, 2024 743 (LV) ± 3.4% 45% 40% 2%[ba] 12%
BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[199][J] July 26 – August 2, 2024 411 (LV) – 53% 40% – 7%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)[200] July 22–28, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 47% 42% – 11%
Fox News[201] July 22–24, 2024 1,034 (RV) ± 3.0% 55% 42% – 1%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[202][N] July 22–24, 2024 851 (LV) ± 3.1% 46% 39% 4%[bb] 11%
Emerson College[203][S] July 22–23, 2024 850 (RV) ± 3.3% 48% 44% – 8%
SoCal Strategies (R)[204][T] July 20–21, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 50% 40% – 10%
Public Policy Polling (D)[205][U] July 17–18, 2024 624 (RV) ± 3.8% 50% 39% – 11%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[206][N] July 16–18, 2024 688 (LV) – 44% 37% 3%[bc] 15%
Public Policy Polling (D)[207][V] July 11–12, 2024 537 (RV) – 47% 44% – 9%
YouGov[208][C] July 4–12, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.4% 50% 38% 1% 11%
889 (LV) – 51% 39% 1% 9%
New York Times/Siena College[209] July 9–11, 2024 872 (RV) ± 3.7% 50% 39% – 10%
872 (LV) ± 3.8% 50% 42% – 8%
Expedition Strategies[210][W] June 24 – July 8, 2024 284 (LV) – 48% 45% – 7%
Remington Research Group (R)[211][M] June 29 – July 1, 2024 673 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 48% – 4%
Cygnal (R)[212] June 27–28, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 46% 42% – 12%
The Bullfinch Group[213][X] June 14–19, 2024 800 (RV) ± 3.5% 48% 36% – 16%
Emerson College[214][A] June 13–18, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 47% 41% – 12%
Marist College[215] June 3–6, 2024 1,181 (RV) ± 3.6% 52% 46% – 2%
Mainstreet Research/FAU[216] May 30–31, 2024 1,012 (RV) ± 3.1% 48% 40% 5% 7%
923 (LV) ± 3.1% 49% 42% 3% 6%
KAConsulting (R)[217][Y] May 15–19, 2024 600 (RV) – 47% 37% 4%[bd] 12%
BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[218][J] May 6–13, 2024 730 (LV) ± 3.6% 49% 41% – 10%
New York Times/Siena College[219][B] April 28 – May 9, 2024 1,023 (RV) ± 3.6% 46% 41% – 13%
1,023 (LV) ± 3.6% 46% 44% – 10%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[220][K] April 24–30, 2024 1,398 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 44% – 8%
Emerson College[221][A] April 25–29, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 46% 42% – 12%
CBS News/YouGov[222] April 19–25, 2024 1,306 (LV) ± 3.1% 46% 39% – 15%
Muhlenberg College[223] April 15–25, 2024 417 (RV) ± 6.0% 45% 41% 5% 9%
The Bullfinch Group[224][R] March 29 – April 3, 2024 600 (RV) ± 4.0% 45% 38% 9% 8%
National Public Affairs[225] March 2024 759 (LV) ± 3.6% 32% 28% – 40%
Franklin & Marshall College[226] March 20–31, 2024 431 (RV) ± 5.7% 46% 39% – 15%
The Bullfinch Group[227][X] March 22–26, 2024 800 (RV) ± 3.5% 47% 30% 8% 15%
Emerson College[228] March 10–13, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 52% 48% – –
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)[229] February 27 – March 7, 2024 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 48% 42% – 10%
Emerson College[230] February 14–16, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 49% 39% – 13%
Chism Strategies[231] February 6–8, 2024 500 (RV) ± 5.0% 38% 37% – 25%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[232][Z] January 22–25, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 47% 40% – 12%
Franklin & Marshall College[233] January 17–28, 2024 1,006 (RV) ± 3.6% 47% 35% 4% 14%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)[234] January 15–21, 2024 745 (LV) ± 3.7% 46% 42% 3% 9%
Quinnipiac University[235] January 4–8, 2024 1,680 (RV) ± 2.4% 53% 43% 1%[aj] 2%
The Bullfinch Group[236][X] December 8–12, 2023 800 (RV) ± 3.5% 42% 27% 13%[be] 20%
Change Research (D)[237][AA] December 3–7, 2023 2,532 (RV) ± 3.5% 44% 41% 0% 15%
Franklin & Marshall College[238] October 11–22, 2023 873 (RV) ± 4.1% 46% 39% 4% 12%
Emerson College[239] October 1–4, 2023 430 (RV) ± 4.7% 41% 33% 8% 18%
Quinnipiac University[240] September 28 – October 2, 2023 1,725 (RV) ± 2.4% 50% 44% 2%[bf] 4%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)[241] May 2–8, 2023 700 (LV) ± 3.7% 53% 41% 1% 5%
Cygnal (R)[242] April 12–13, 2023 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 41% 0% 13%
Franklin & Marshall College[243] March 27 – April 7, 2023 643 (RV) ± 6.6% 42% 35% – 23%
Hypothetical polling

Bob Casey Jr. vs. Doug Mastriano

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Bob
Casey Jr. (D) 		Doug
Mastriano (R) 		Undecided
Franklin & Marshall College[243] March 27 – April 7, 2023 643 (RV) ± 3.7% 47% 31% 22%
Cygnal (R)[242] April 12–13, 2023 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 39% 12%

Results

[edit]
2024 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania[244]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Dave McCormick 3,399,295 48.82% +6.20%
Democratic Bob Casey Jr. (incumbent) 3,384,180 48.60% −7.14%
Libertarian John Thomas 89,653 1.29% +0.27%
Green Leila Hazou 66,388 0.95% +0.33%
Constitution Marty Selker 23,621 0.34% N/A
Total votes 6,963,137 100.0%
Republican gain from Democratic

Results by county

[edit]
County[245] Dave McCormick
Republican 		Bob Casey Jr.
Democratic 		Various candidates
Other parties 		Margin Total votes cast
# % # % # % # %
Adams 38,505 63.88% 19,947 33.09% 1,824 3.03% 18,556 30.79% 60,276
Allegheny 272,861 38.112% 425,280 59.404% 17,781 2.484% -152,419 -21.290% 715,922
Armstrong 26,653 72.14% 9,136 24.73% 1,155 3.13% 17,517 47.42% 36,944
Beaver 53,593 56.56% 38,529 40.66% 2,635 2.78% 15,064 15.90% 94,757
Bedford 22,855 81.50% 4,624 16.49% 564 2.01% 18,231 65.01% 28,043
Berks 108,058 53.06% 89,063 45.74% 6,521 3.20% 18,995 9.33% 203,642
Blair 44,741 69.13% 18,445 28.50% 1,537 2.37% 26,296 40.63% 64,723
Bradford 22,099 71.50% 8,007 25.90% 804 2.60% 14,092 45.59% 30,910
Bucks 194,203 48.57% 196,444 49.13% 9,186 2.30% −2,241 -0.56% 399,833
Butler 77,328 63.925% 40,973 33.871% 2,666 2.204% 36,355 30.054% 120,967
Cambria 46,482 65.464% 22,887 32.243% 1,635 2.303% 23,595 33.231% 71,004
Cameron 1,558 70.37% 580 26.20% 76 3.43% 978 44.17% 2,214
Carbon 22,603 64.45% 11,570 32.99% 898 2.56% 11,033 31.46% 35,071
Centre 38,054 47.32% 40,382 50.22% 1,979 2.46% -2,328 -2.89% 80,415
Chester 138,271 42.60% 178,765 55.07% 7,551 2.33% -40,494 −12.65% 324,587
Clarion 14,179 72.06% 4,683 23.80% 815 4.14% 9,496 48.26% 19,677
Clearfield 29,063 72.27% 10,111 25.14% 1,038 2.58% 18,952 47.13% 40,212
Clinton 12,250 66.403% 5,722 31.017% 476 2.580% 6,528 35.386% 18,448
Columbia 20,617 63.63% 10,969 33.85% 814 2.51% 9,648 29.78% 32,400
Crawford 28,234 63.10% 13,370 31.30% 1,110 2.60% 14,864 31.80% 42,714
Cumberland 78,178 53.037% 64,713 43.902% 4,512 3.061% 13,465 9.135% 147,403
Dauphin 66,949 44.945% 77,022 51.708% 4,985 3.347% −10,073 -6.763% 148,956
Delaware 121,482 37.212% 197,424 60.475% 7,551 2.313% −75,942 -23.263% 326,457
Elk 11,939 69.749% 4,679 28.335% 499 2.916% 7,260 42.414% 17,117
Erie 65,603 47.94% 67,868 49.60% 3,371 2.46% −2,265 -1.66% 136,842
Fayette 40,804 64.82% 20,752 32.97% 1,389 2.21% 20,052 31.86% 62,945
Forest 1,808 68.25% 741 27.97% 100 3.78% 1,067 40.28% 2,649
Franklin 57,217 68.836% 23,591 28.381% 2,313 2.783% 33,626 40.455% 83,121
Fulton 6,773 83.45% 1,197 14.75% 146 1.80% 5,576 68.70% 8,116
Greene 11,643 67.91% 5,075 29.60% 427 2.49% 6,568 38.31% 17,145
Huntingdon 16,910 74.43% 5,582 24.24% 986 4.28% 11,328 49.19% 23,028
Indiana 27,881 66.28% 13,181 31.33% 1,006 2.39% 14,700 34.94% 42,068
Jefferson 17,618 76.34% 4,834 20.95% 626 2.71% 12,784 55.39% 23,078
Juniata 9,252 76.824% 2,478 20.576% 313 2.600% 6,774 56.248% 12,043
Lackawanna 51,944 44.82% 61,653 53.20% 2,289 1.98% −9,709 −8.38% 115,886
Lancaster 162,105 56.218% 118,580 41.123% 7,668 2.659% 43,525 15.095% 288,353
Lawrence 29,405 62.842% 16,176 34.570% 1,211 2.588% 13,229 28.272% 46,792
Lebanon 46,172 63.13% 24,745 33.83% 2,222 3.04% 21,427 29.30% 73,139
Lehigh 87,147 46.458% 94,875 50.577% 5,562 2.965% −7,728 −4.119% 187,584
Luzerne 87,048 56.166% 64,495 41.614% 3,442 2.221% 22,553 14.552% 154,985
Lycoming 40,672 68.36% 17,354 29.17% 1,472 2.47% 23,318 39.19% 59,498
McKean 13,799 70.51% 5,231 26.73% 541 2 47% 8,568 43.78% 19,571
Mercer 36,468 62.78% 20,302 34.95% 1,318 2.27% 16,166 27.83% 58,088
Mifflin 16,413 74.79% 4,991 22.74% 542 2.47% 11,422 52.05% 21,946
Monroe 40,884 48.07% 41,712 49.04% 2,455 2.89% −828 -0.97% 85,051
Montgomery 196,422 37.78% 311,859 59.98% 11,687 2.25% −115,437 −22.20% 519,968
Montour 5,847 59.060% 3,813 38.515% 240 2.425% 2,034 20.545% 9,900
Northampton 85,787 49.13% 84,762 48.54% 4,066 2.33% 1,025 0.59% 174,615
Northumberland 28,706 66.305% 13,432 31.025% 1,156 2.670% 15,274 35.280% 43,294
Perry 18,355 71.476% 6,470 25.195% 855 3.329% 11,885 46.281% 25,680
Philadelphia 129,098 18.70% 541,567 78.45% 19,651 2.85% −412,469 -59.75% 690,316
Pike 20,869 60.30% 6,470 37.30% 831 2.40% 7,960 23.00% 34,609
Potter 7,109 78.51% 1,695 18.72% 251 2.77% 5,414 59.79% 9,055
Schuylkill 48,553 66.66% 22,224 30.51% 2,063 2.83% 26,329 36.15% 72,840
Snyder 14,211 71.243% 5,309 26.616% 427 2.141% 8.902 44.628% 19,947
Somerset 30,667 75.135% 9,059 29.195% 1,090 2.671% 21,608 52.940% 40,816
Sullivan 2,612 70.31% 1,021 27.48% 82 2.21% 1,591 23.83% 3,715
Susquehanna 15,545 69.97% 6,129 27.59% 542 2.44% 6,671 30.28% 22,216
Tioga 15,778 73.62% 5,066 23.64% 588 2.74% 10,712 49.98% 21,432
Union 12,747 60.49% 7,872 37.36% 453 2.15% 4,875 23.13% 21,072
Venango 17,829 66.9181% 7,872 29.6926% 597 3.3893% 4,875 18.2975% 26,643
Warren 13,655 66.07% 6,415 31.04% 903 2.89% 7,240 35.03% 20,667
Washington 71,798 59.61% 45,926 38.13% 2,717 2.56% 25,872 21.48% 120,441
Wayne 19,331 65.897% 9,385 31.993% 619 2.110% 9,946 33.904% 29,335
Westmoreland 128,040 62.2816% 45,926 36.3765% 4,893 2.3419% 52,036 24.9051% 208,937
Wyoming 9,919 66.043% 4,750 31.627% 350 2.330% 5,169 21.416% 15,019
York 148,098 59.7343% 91,779 37.0184% 8,051 3.2473% 56,319 22.7159% 247,928
Totals 3,399,295 48.82% 3,384,180 48.60% 179,662 2.58% 15,115 0.22% 6,963,137

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

[edit]

McCormick won 9 of 17 congressional districts, with the remaining eight going to Casey, including one that elected a Republican.[246][247]

District Casey Jr. McCormick Representative
1st Brian Fitzpatrick
2nd Brendan Boyle
3rd Dwight Evans
4th Madeleine Dean
5th Mary Gay Scanlon
6th Chrissy Houlahan
7th 48% 50% Susan Wild (118th Congress)
Ryan Mackenzie (119th Congress)
8th 46% 51% Matt Cartwright (118th Congress)
Rob Bresnahan (119th Congress)
9th Dan Meuser
10th Scott Perry
11th Lloyd Smucker
12th Summer Lee
13th John Joyce
14th Guy Reschenthaler
15th Glenn Thompson
16th Mike Kelly
17th Chris Deluzio

Analysis

[edit]

In Pennsylvania, a statewide recount is triggered under state law if the margin falls within 0.5% of the total vote. Preliminary results for the election reached this threshold on November 13, 2024, with McCormick at 48.9% leading Casey's 48.5%, as outstanding ballots continued to be counted across the state. Secretary of the Commonwealth Al Schmidt officially ordered the recount later that evening, with Casey declining to concede.[248] The deadline for the counties to begin their recounts is on November 20, the third Wednesday after the election according to state law, however, counties can start their recounts as early as November 18, with all counties required to submit their results to the Department of State by noon on November 26 as the results must be reported by the Secretary of the Commonwealth by noon on November 27.[249] Additionally, the counties must use different machines for the recount than were used on Election Day.[250]

On Monday, November 18, following a series of challenges and disputes, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court directed all of the state's county election officials not to count certain mail-in ballots which arrived on time yet lacked a correct handwritten date on the return envelope. [251][252]

The last instance of a statewide recount being held was for the 2022 Republican primary for Pennsylvania's Class 3 Senate seat, of which McCormick was also a candidate. Conversely to his stance in the 2024 general election, he unsuccessfully sued to have undated mail-in ballots counted. After completion of the recount he would concede to Mehmet Oz, with the final results expanding Oz's margin by 49 votes.[253]

Analysis

[edit]

McCormick certainly benefitted from the presence of former President Donald Trump on the ballot, who carried the state over Vice President Harris by just over 120,000 votes (for a margin of roughly 1.7%) in the concurrent presidential election. Indeed, McCormick cleared 60% in most counties in the state’s less-populated interior and even 70% in many.

Unlike with Ohio and Montana, however, McCormick had to seek support beyond the Trump base as he was running in a swing state. Casey and Trump both won Bucks, Erie, and Monroe Counties. McCormick campaigned with Nikki Haley in the suburbs of Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, aiming to appeal to voters uneasy about Trump by positioning himself as a more establishment candidate. Casey aired ads in late October to highlight his votes with the Trump administration, while McCormick tied Casey to Harris, highlighting his votes with the Biden administration. However, both candidates received fewer votes than their respective parties’ presidential candidate in the concurrent 2024 presidential election. Senator McCormick received about 144,000 fewer votes than President Trump, while Senator Casey received almost 39,000 fewer votes than Vice President Harris. [254][255][256]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ a b c Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ $4,263,800 of this total was self-funded by McCormick
  3. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  4. ^ Thomas (L) and Hazou (G) with 1%; "Refused" with 1%
  5. ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%
  6. ^ a b c "Other" with 2%; "Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 1%
  7. ^ "Another candidate" with 1%
  8. ^ "Another candidate" with 2%
  9. ^ a b Thomas (L) and Hazou (G) with 1%
  10. ^ a b c "Another party's candidate" with 1%
  11. ^ Hazou (G) with 2%; Thomas (L) with 1%
  12. ^ "Someone else" with 1%; "Would not vote" with 1%
  13. ^ "Someone else" with 1%; "Would not vote" with 2%
  14. ^ "Refused" with 2%
  15. ^ "Other" with 4%; "Neither" with 2%
  16. ^ "Someone else" with 3%
  17. ^ a b c "Other" with 2%
  18. ^ Thomas (L) with 2%; Hazou (G) and Selker (C) with 1%; "Other" with 1%
  19. ^ Thomas with 2%; "Another candidate" with 1%
  20. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  21. ^ "Refuse" with 2%
  22. ^ "Other" (Thomas (L), Hazou (G) & Selker (C)) with 5%
  23. ^ "Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 1%; "Other" with 1%
  24. ^ "Another candidate" with 2%
  25. ^ "Other" with 1%
  26. ^ "Other" with 1%
  27. ^ a b Hazou (G) and Thomas (L) with 1%; "Another candidate" with 1%
  28. ^ "Some other candidate" with 1%
  29. ^ "Someone else" with 1%; "Refused" with 1%
  30. ^ Poll sponsored by Sentinel Action Fund
  31. ^ "Other" with 5%
  32. ^ "None of the Above" with 9%; "Other" with 3%
  33. ^ Thomas (L) with 3%, Hazou (G) with 2%, and Selker (C) with 1%
  34. ^ "Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 1%; "Other" with <1%
  35. ^ "Someone else" with 1%; "Would not vote" with 2%
  36. ^ a b c d "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
  37. ^ "Other" with 1%
  38. ^ Thomas (L), "Wouldn't vote if these are the candidates" with 1%
  39. ^ "Another candidate" and "Would not vote for senate" each with 1%; "Prefer not to say" with <1%
  40. ^ "Refused" with 1%
  41. ^ "No opinion/Skipped" with 4%; Thomas (L), Hazou (G), and "Would not vote" each with 1%
  42. ^ "No opinion/Skipped" with 3%; "Would not vote" each with 2%
  43. ^ "Other" with 3%
  44. ^ Thomas (L) with 1%; Selker (C) with 1%; Hazou (G) with <1%
  45. ^ "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 4%; Thomas (L) with 1%
  46. ^ "Someone else" with 3%
  47. ^ "Other" with 4%; "Neither" with 3%
  48. ^ Thomas (L) with 1%; Hazou (G) with 1%; "Other" with 1%; "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 1%
  49. ^ Thomas (L) with 3%; Hazou (G) with 2%; Messina (AS) and Selker (C) with 1%
  50. ^ Leila Hazou (G) with 1%, John Thomas (L), "Other (Another Third Party/Write-In)", and Marty Selker (C) with 0%
  51. ^ "Refused" with 1%
  52. ^ "Some other candidate" with 3%
  53. ^ John Thomas (L) and "Other (Another Third Party/Write-In)" with 1%; Leila Hazou (G) and Marty Selker (C) with 0%
  54. ^ John Thomas (L) with 2%; Leila Hazou (G) with 1%; Marty Selker (C) with 0%; "Other (Another Third Party/Write-In)" with 1%
  55. ^ Leila Hazou (G), John Thomas (L), and Marty Selker (C) with 1%
  56. ^ "Would not vote" with 3%; "Someone else" with 1%
  57. ^ "None of the above" with 8%; "Other" with 5%
  58. ^ "Someone else" & "Wouldn't vote" with 1%

Partisan clients

  1. ^ a b c d e f Poll sponsored by The Hill
  2. ^ a b c d Poll sponsored by The Philadelphia Inquirer
  3. ^ a b c Poll conducted for The Times, Stanford University, Arizona State University, and Yale University
  4. ^ a b Poll sponsored by The Morning Call
  5. ^ a b Poll sponsored by USA Today
  6. ^ a b Poll sponsored by American Greatness
  7. ^ a b Poll sponsored by RealClearPennsylvania
  8. ^ Poll sponsored by Rose Institute of State and Local Government
  9. ^ Poll sponsored by the Commonwealth Foundation
  10. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by The Cook Political Report
  11. ^ a b Poll commissioned by AARP
  12. ^ Poll sponsored by the Napolitan Institute
  13. ^ a b Poll sponsored by American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, a group that supports Republicans.
  14. ^ a b c d e f g Poll sponsored by The Daily Telegraph
  15. ^ Poll sponsored by Spotlight PA
  16. ^ Poll sponsored by On Point Politics and Red Eagle Politics, the latter of which supports the Republican Party.
  17. ^ Poll sponsored by the Pinpoint Policy Institute
  18. ^ a b Poll sponsored by the Independent Center
  19. ^ Poll sponsored by The Hill and Nexstar
  20. ^ Poll sponsored by On Point Politics
  21. ^ Poll sponsored by Clean and Prosperous America PAC, a group that supports Democrats.
  22. ^ Poll sponsored by the Progress Action Fund, which is a sponsor of the Democratic Party.
  23. ^ Poll Sponsored by Progressive Policy Institute
  24. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by the Commonwealth Foundation, a conservative think tank
  25. ^ Poll conducted for Vapor Technology Association
  26. ^ Poll sponsored by McCormick's campaign
  27. ^ Poll sponsored by Future Majority, a partisan sponsor for the Democratic Party.

References

[edit]
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  249. ^ Bernard, Katie; Lai, Jonathan (November 14, 2024). "Pennsylvania's Senate race is going to a recount. How will it work?". The Philadelphia Inquirer. Retrieved November 14, 2024.
  250. ^ "Recount starts in Pennsylvania US Senate race between Casey, McCormick". WGAL. Retrieved November 18, 2024.
  251. ^ Lo Wang, Hansi. "Pennsylvania's high court sides with Republicans on misdated mail ballots". NPR. Retrieved November 19, 2024.
  252. ^ LEVY, MARC (November 18, 2024). "Pennsylvania's high court orders counties not to count disputed ballots in US Senate race". AP. Retrieved November 19, 2024.
  253. ^ Walker, Carter (June 13, 2024). "Elections 101: Everything you need to know about election recounts in Pennsylvania". Spotlight PA. Retrieved November 14, 2024.
  254. ^ "David McCormick campaigns with Nikki Haley in Senate-race push for moderate voters in Western Pa". 90.5 WESA. October 31, 2024. Retrieved December 2, 2024.
  255. ^ Walsh, Sean Collins (November 9, 2024). "Trump, messaging, and money: How Dave McCormick unseated Bob Casey in Pennsylvania's Senate race". www.inquirer.com. Retrieved December 2, 2024.
  256. ^ Walsh, Sean Collins (November 9, 2024). "Haley campaigns for McCormick in Philly and Pittsburgh suburbs". www.penncapital-star.com. Retrieved December 2, 2024.
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Official campaign websites

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