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2020 United States presidential election in New Mexico

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Main article: 2020 United States presidential election

2020 United States presidential election in New Mexico
← 2016 November 3, 2020 2024 →
Turnout68.67% (of eligible voters) (Increase6.31 pp)
 
Nominee Joe Biden Donald Trump
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Delaware Florida
Running mate Kamala Harris Mike Pence
Electoral vote 5 0
Popular vote 501,614 401,894
Percentage 54.29% 43.50%
President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elections in New Mexico
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The 2020 United States presidential election in New Mexico was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[2] New Mexico voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. New Mexico has five electoral votes in the Electoral College.[3]

New Mexico was won by Biden by a 10.79% margin of victory. Prior to the election, most news organizations making election predictions considered New Mexico as a state Biden would win, or a safe blue state. Biden scored victories in all of the state's three largest counties: Bernalillo, Doña Ana, and Santa Fe counties, home to Albuquerque, Las Cruces, and Santa Fe, respectively; all of them voted for Biden in margins greater than ten points.[4] Aggregate polling correctly showed Biden ahead by double-digits in the state.[5][6]

Per exit polls by the Associated Press, much of Biden's strength in New Mexico came from Latino voters, from whom he garnered 61% of the vote. These included 54% of Latinos of Mexican heritage and 70% of Spanish-Americans. Biden also carried a plurality of Caucasian/white voters in the state (49% to Trump's 48%).[7] He also won over Native Americans, garnering over 60% of the vote.[8][9] 53% of voters believed the Trump administration was doing too little to help Native American reservations in New Mexico during the COVID-19 pandemic, and these voters broke for Biden by 75%–23%.

This was the first election since 1968 in which New Mexico voted more Republican than neighboring Colorado. Biden became the first Democrat to win the White House without carrying Colfax County, or Hidalgo County since 1920, when it was created.[10][11] This was the first election since 1948 in which Valencia County voted for the losing candidate.[12] Although New Mexico is no longer classified as a critical swing state, Trump became the first ever Republican incumbent to consecutively lose New Mexico in an election and only the second ever U.S. president after Jimmy Carter to consecutively lose New Mexico in the state's history.

Primary elections

[edit]

The primary elections were held on June 2, 2020.

Republican primary

[edit]

Donald Trump ran unopposed in the Republican primary, and thus received all of the state's 22 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention.[13]

2020 New Mexico Republican presidential primary
Candidate Votes % Estimated
delegates
Donald Trump (incumbent) 144,067 91.25 22
Uncommitted 13,809 8.75 0
Total 157,876 100% 22

Democratic primary

[edit]
This section is an excerpt from 2020 New Mexico Democratic presidential primary § NMresults.[edit]
2020 New Mexico Democratic presidential primary[14]
Candidate Votes % Delegates[15]
Joe Biden 181,700 73.30 30
Bernie Sanders (withdrawn) 37,435 15.10 4
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn) 14,552 5.87
Andrew Yang (withdrawn) 4,026 1.62
Tulsi Gabbard (withdrawn) 2,735 1.10
Deval Patrick (withdrawn) 971 0.39
Uncommitted Delegate 6,461 2.61
Total 247,880 100% 34

Libertarian primary

[edit]
Main article: 2020 Libertarian Party presidential primaries
2020 New Mexico Libertarian presidential primary
June 2, 2020 2024 →
← NE
 
Candidate Jo Jorgensen
(nominee)[a] 		Uncommitted Lincoln Chafee
(withdrawn)
Home state South Carolina N/A Wyoming
Popular vote 520 330 158
Percentage 33.12% 21.02% 10.06%
 
Candidate Jacob Hornberger
(lost)[a] 		Adam Kokesh
(lost)[a] 		Sam Robb
(lost)[a]
Home state Virginia Indiana Pennsylvania
Popular vote 154 124 90
Percentage 9.81% 7.90% 5.73%
Election results by county
  Jo Jorgensen
  Uncommitted
  Tie
  No votes
New Mexico Libertarian presidential primary, June 2, 2020[18]
Candidate Votes Percentage
Jo Jorgensen (nominee)[a] 520 33.12%
Uncommitted 330 21.02%
Lincoln Chafee (withdrawn) 158 10.06%
Jacob Hornberger (lost)[a] 154 9.81%
Adam Kokesh (lost)[a] 124 7.90%
Sam Robb (lost)[a] 90 5.73%
John Monds (lost)[a] 63 4.01%
Dan Behrman (lost)[a] 58 3.69%
Arvin Vohra (lost)[a] 39 2.48%
James Ogle (lost)[a] 34 2.17%
Total 1,557 100%

General election

[edit]

Final predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking
The Cook Political Report[19] Solid D
Inside Elections[20] Solid D
Sabato's Crystal Ball[21] Likely D
Politico[22] Likely D
RCP[23] Lean D
Niskanen[24] Safe D
CNN[25] Solid D
The Economist[26] Safe D
CBS News[27] Likely D
270towin[28] Likely D
ABC News[29] Solid D
NPR[30] Likely D
NBC News[31] Likely D
538[32] Solid D

Polling

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Graphical summary

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Aggregate polls

[edit]
Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other/
Undecided
[b] 		Margin
270 to Win[33] October 6 – November 1, 2020 November 3, 2020 53.5% 40.5% 6.0% Biden +13.0
FiveThirtyEight[34] until November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 53.8% 42.3% 3.9% Biden +11.5
Average 53.7% 41.4% 4.9% Biden +12.3

Polls

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Jo
Jorgensen
Libertarian 		Howie
Hawkins
Green 		Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios[35] Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 1,481 (LV) ± 3.5% 42%[d] 56% – – – –
Research & Polling Inc./Albuquerque Journal[36] Oct 23–29, 2020 1,180 (LV) ± 2.9% 42% 54% – – 3%[e] 1%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[35] Oct 1–28, 2020 2,719 (LV) – 46% 52% – – – –
GBAO Strategies/GBAO Strategies/Ben Ray Luján (D)[37][A] Oct 14–17, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 41% 54% – – – –
Public Policy Polling/NM Political Report[38] Sep 30 – Oct 1, 2020 886 (LV) ± 3.3% 39% 53% 2% – 2%[f] 4%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[35] Sep 1–30, 2020 1,015 (LV) – 44% 54% – – – 1%
Research & Polling Inc./Albuquerque Journal[39] Aug 26 – Sep 2, 2020 1,123 (LV) ± 2.9% 39% 54% – – – –
SurveyMonkey/Axios[35] Aug 1–31, 2020 1,087 (LV) – 43% 56% – – – 2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[35] Jul 1–31, 2020 904 (LV) – 48% 49% – – – 2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[35] Jun 8–30, 2020 506 (LV) – 50% 49% – – – 1%
Public Policy Polling/NM Political Report[40] Jun 12–13, 2020 740 (V) ± 3.6% 39% 53% – – – 8%
Public Policy Polling/The Majority Institute[41][B] Apr 20–21, 2020 1,091 (RV) ± 3.1% 40% 52% – – – –
Emerson College[42] Jan 3–6, 2020 967 (RV) ± 3.1% 46% 54% – – – –
Former candidates

Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Pete
Buttigieg (D)
Emerson College[42] Jan 3–6, 2020 967 (RV) ± 3.1% 45% 55%

Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Bernie
Sanders (D)
Emerson College[42] Jan 3–6, 2020 967 (RV) ± 3.1% 41% 59%

Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Elizabeth
Warren (D)
Emerson College[42] Jan 3–6, 2020 967 (RV) ± 3.1% 46% 54%

Results

[edit]
2020 United States presidential election in New Mexico[43]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Joe Biden
Kamala Harris 		501,614 54.29 +6.03
Republican Donald Trump (incumbent)
Mike Pence (incumbent) 		401,894 43.50 +3.46
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen 		12,585 1.36 −7.98
Green Howie Hawkins
Angela Walker 		4,426 0.48 −0.76
Constitution Sheila "Samm" Tittle[g]
David Sandige 		1,806 0.20 +0.01
Socialism and Liberation Gloria La Riva
Sunil Freeman 		1,640 0.18 +0.04
Total votes 923,965 100%
Democratic win

By county

[edit]
County Joe Biden
Democratic 		Donald Trump
Republican 		Various candidates
Other parties 		Margin Total votes cast
# % # % # % # %
Bernalillo 193,757 61.01% 116,135 36.57% 7,698 2.42% 77,622 24.44% 317,590
Catron 595 25.58% 1,698 73.00% 33 1.42% -1,103 -47.42% 2,326
Chaves 6,381 28.43% 15,656 69.76% 406 1.81% -9,275 -41.33% 22,443
Cibola 4,745 53.30% 3,975 44.65% 183 2.05% 770 8.65% 8,903
Colfax 2,611 43.40% 3,271 54.37% 134 2.23% -660 -10.97% 6,016
Curry 4,307 28.52% 10,444 69.16% 350 2.32% -6,137 -40.64% 15,101
De Baca 231 25.64% 656 72.81% 14 1.55% -425 -47.17% 901
Dona Ana 47,957 58.03% 32,802 39.69% 1,882 2.28% 15,155 18.34% 82,641
Eddy 5,424 23.36% 17,454 75.16% 344 1.48% -12,030 -51.80% 23,222
Grant 7,590 52.58% 6,553 45.40% 292 2.02% 1,037 7.18% 14,435
Guadalupe 1,234 56.37% 917 41.89% 38 1.74% 317 14.48% 2,189
Harding 179 35.45% 319 63.17% 7 1.38% -140 -27.72% 505
Hidalgo 823 41.69% 1,120 56.74% 31 1.57% -297 -15.05% 1,974
Lea 4,061 19.41% 16,531 79.03% 326 1.56% -12,470 -59.62% 20,918
Lincoln 3,194 30.99% 6,942 67.36% 170 1.65% -3,748 -36.37% 10,306
Los Alamos 7,554 61.45% 4,278 34.80% 461 3.75% 3,276 26.65% 12,293
Luna 3,563 43.97% 4,408 54.40% 132 1.63% -845 -10.43% 8,103
McKinley 18,029 68.07% 7,801 29.45% 656 2.48% 10,228 38.62% 26,486
Mora 1,745 64.97% 903 33.62% 38 1.41% 842 31.35% 2,686
Otero 8,485 36.00% 14,521 61.61% 565 2.39% -6,036 -25.61% 23,571
Quay 1,170 30.21% 2,634 68.01% 69 1.78% -1,464 -37.80% 3,873
Rio Arriba 10,990 66.09% 5,408 32.52% 230 1.39% 5,582 33.57% 16,628
Roosevelt 1,802 27.27% 4,634 70.13% 172 2.60% -2,832 -42.86% 6,608
San Juan 18,083 34.58% 32,874 62.86% 1,337 2.56% -14,791 -28.28% 52,294
San Miguel 7,888 68.41% 3,421 29.67% 222 1.92% 4,467 38.74% 11,531
Sandoval 40,588 53.01% 34,174 44.64% 1,800 2.35% 6,414 8.37% 76,562
Santa Fe 62,530 76.05% 18,329 22.29% 1,368 1.66% 44,201 53.76% 82,227
Sierra 2,265 38.10% 3,542 59.58% 138 2.32% -1,277 -21.48% 5,945
Socorro 3,722 51.98% 3,255 45.46% 183 1.86% 467 6.52% 7,160
Taos 13,121 76.37% 3,715 21.62% 345 2.01% 9,406 54.75% 17,181
Torrance 2,344 32.19% 4,772 65.54% 165 2.27% -2,428 -33.35% 7,281
Union 383 21.41% 1,388 77.59% 18 1.00% -1,005 -56.18% 1,789
Valencia 14,263 44.19% 17,364 53.80% 650 2.01% -3,101 -9.61% 32,277
Total 501,614 54.29% 401,894 43.50% 20,457 2.21% 99,720 10.79% 923,965

By congressional district

[edit]

Biden won 2 out of 3 congressional districts.

District Trump Biden Representative
1st 37.4% 60.2% Deb Haaland
2nd 54.9% 43.1% Xochitl Torres Small
Yvette Herrell
3rd 40.1% 57.7% Ben Ray Luján
Teresa Leger Fernandez

Analysis

[edit]

The state used to be quite competitive, voting for Democrat Al Gore in 2000 with a margin of only 366 votes and Republican George W. Bush in 2004 by 5,988 votes. However, New Mexico has become a reliably blue state since then as Democrats have relied on Hispanic, Native American, and urban voters to deliver victories.[44]

On the other hand, Trump increased his popular vote percentage by 3.46%, earning 43.5% of the vote share and over 400,000 votes in total. Much of this improvement could be attributed to the fact that the Libertarian Party nominee in 2016 had been former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson, who earned 9.34% of the vote in his home state; Johnson did not run in 2020. That said, Trump's 43.5% represented not only an improvement on his own vote share in 2016, but also on those of future Utah Senator Mitt Romney in 2012 (42.84%) and Arizona Senator John McCain in 2008 (41.78%).

Aftermath

[edit]

On December 14, 2020, the Trump campaign filed a lawsuit against the New Mexico Secretary of State over the use of ballot drop-boxes for the 2020 presidential election. However, on January 11, 2021, five days after Congress certified the results for Joe Biden, the campaign dropped the lawsuit.[45][46] Trump attorneys Mark Caruso and Michael Smith[47] cited “events that have transpired since the inception of this lawsuit” in a three-page motion as the reason for dropping the lawsuit. Despite the withdrawal, the motion still allows for revisiting these concerns in the future.[48]

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l Jorgensen was nominated at the 2020 Libertarian National Convention on May 23,[16] ten days before the New Mexico primary, which was delayed due to the COVID-19 pandemic.[17]
  2. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  3. ^ Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  4. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  5. ^ "Other candidate" with 3%
  6. ^ "other" with 2%
  7. ^ The national Constitution Party nominated Don Blankenship for President with William Mohr as his running mate, but the New Mexico state party chose Tittle and Sandige.

Partisan clients

  1. ^ Poll sponsored by Ben Ray Luján's campaign for the 2020 United States Senate election in New Mexico
  2. ^ This poll was sponsored by the Majority Institute, a communications firm which supports the Democratic Party

References

[edit]
  1. ^ "New Mexico Election Results 2020". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. Retrieved November 17, 2020.
  2. ^ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Archived from the original on August 2, 2018. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  3. ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  4. ^ "New Mexico Election Results". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 21, 2020.
  5. ^ "New Mexico 2020 Presidential Election Polls: Biden vs. Trump". 270toWin.com. Retrieved November 21, 2020.
  6. ^ Bycoffe, Aaron; King, Ritchie; Koeze, Ella; Mehta, Dhrumhil; Mithani, Jasmine; Wolfe, Julia (November 21, 2020). "New Mexico President: General Election Polls". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved November 21, 2020.
  7. ^ "New Mexico Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
  8. ^ Caldera, Camille. "Fact check: There was strong Navajo support for Biden, but numbers cited in claim have changed". USA TODAY. Retrieved November 12, 2020.
  9. ^ "Dzil Yizhiin stays true blue, defying national rural trend". Navajo Times. November 5, 2020. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
  10. ^ "The Political Graveyard: Colfax County, N.M." politicalgraveyard.com. Retrieved December 17, 2020.
  11. ^ "The Political Graveyard: Hidalgo County, N.M." politicalgraveyard.com. Retrieved June 6, 2022.
  12. ^ Chief, Dan Boyd | Journal Capitol Bureau (November 23, 2020). "Valencia County's 17 presidential elections streak comes to an end". www.abqjournal.com. Retrieved December 17, 2020.
  13. ^ "New Mexico Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved June 3, 2020.
  14. ^ "2020 Primary Election Results". New Mexico Secretary of State. Retrieved October 14, 2020.
  15. ^ "Delegate Tracker". interactives.ap.org. Associated Press. Retrieved June 3, 2020.
  16. ^ Doherty, Brian (May 23, 2020). "Jo Jorgensen Wins Libertarian Party Presidential Nomination". Reason. Retrieved August 7, 2020.
  17. ^ Saul, Stephanie; Corasaniti, Nick (May 27, 2020). "16 States Have Postponed Primaries During the Pandemic. Here's a List". The New York Times. Retrieved July 18, 2020.
  18. ^ "2020 Primary Election Results Statewide Summary" (PDF). New Mexico Secretary of State. Link under "2020 Primary Election Results". July 28, 2020. p. 12. Retrieved June 7, 2021.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: location (link)
  19. ^ "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  20. ^ "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  21. ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  22. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  23. ^ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  24. ^ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Archived April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.
  25. ^ David Chalian; Terence Burlij (June 11, 2020). "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
  26. ^ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
  27. ^ "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
  28. ^ "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
  29. ^ "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
  30. ^ Montanaro, Domenico (August 3, 2020). "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
  31. ^ "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. August 6, 2020. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
  32. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. August 12, 2020. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
  33. ^ "New Mexico 2020 Presidential Election Polls: Biden vs. Trump - 270toWin". 270toWin.com.
  34. ^ Best, Ryan; Bycoffe, Aaron; King, Ritchie; Mehta, Dhrumil; Wiederkehr, Anna (June 28, 2018). "New Mexico : President: general election Polls". FiveThirtyEight.
  35. ^ a b c d e f "Candidate preference". www.tableau.com.
  36. ^ Boyd, Dan (October 31, 2020). "Journal Poll: Biden comfortably ahead in NM". Albuquerque Journal.
  37. ^ "GBAO Strategies/Ben Ray Luján (D)" (PDF).
  38. ^ "Biden leads Trump by 14 points in NM - NM Political Report". October 6, 2020.
  39. ^ Boyd, Dan (September 5, 2020). "Journal Poll: Biden holds sizable lead over Trump in NM". Albuquerque Journal.
  40. ^ "Poll: Biden, Luján lead in New Mexico after primaries - NM Political Report". June 16, 2020.
  41. ^ "Public Policy Polling/The Majority Institute". Archived from the original on April 25, 2020.
  42. ^ a b c d "Emerson Polling - New Mexico 2020: Democrats Strong in the Land of Enchantment, but Split Between Sanders and Biden for Nomination". emersonpolling.reportablenews.com.
  43. ^ "Federal". New Mexico Secretary of State. Retrieved November 25, 2020.
  44. ^ Silver, Nate (March 8, 2016). "Bloomberg Might Have Produced President Trump". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved November 12, 2020.
  45. ^ "President Donald Trump's campaign drops New Mexico election lawsuit". MSN. Archived from the original on January 21, 2021. Retrieved January 15, 2021.
  46. ^ "Complaint" (PDF). UnAmericanBar. Retrieved July 10, 2021.
  47. ^ "Complaint". UnAmericanBar. Retrieved July 10, 2021.
  48. ^ "Trump asks to drop voting allegations in New Mexico, for now". Associated Press. April 20, 2021.

Further reading

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