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2020 United States presidential election in Maryland

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For related races, see 2020 United States presidential election.
2020 United States presidential election in Maryland
← 2016 November 3, 2020 2024 →
Turnout74.63%Increase 2.65 pp[1]
 
Nominee Joe Biden Donald Trump
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Delaware Florida
Running mate Kamala Harris Mike Pence
Electoral vote 10 0
Popular vote 1,985,023 976,414
Percentage 65.36% 32.15%
President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

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The 2020 United States presidential election in Maryland was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[2] Maryland voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Maryland has 10 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[3]

Biden easily carried Maryland with 65.4% of the vote to Trump's 32.2% (a margin of 33.2%, significantly larger than Hillary Clinton's 26.4% in 2016). Prior to the election, all news organizations projecting the election considered Maryland a state that Biden would carry comfortably. Maryland has long been a Democratic-leaning state, and no Republican presidential candidate has won it since George H. W. Bush in 1988. Biden carried the Black-majority, suburban counties of Prince George's County and Charles County with over 80% and 60% of the vote respectively, Baltimore City with almost 90% of the vote, and the white-majority, suburban counties of Montgomery, Howard, and Baltimore with over 60% each. While Republicans typically win more counties by running up margins in more rural western Maryland and the Eastern Shore, the Baltimore-Washington area casts over three-fourths of the state's vote, making it difficult for a Republican to carry Maryland. While Trump won 14 of Maryland's 24 county-level jurisdictions, Biden won the six largest, all of which are part of the Baltimore-Washington area–Montgomery, Prince George's, Anne Arundel, Howard and Baltimore counties and Baltimore City–by over a million votes collectively, more than enough to carry the state.

Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Biden's principal strength in Maryland came from winning 94% of African-Americans, who represented 28% of the electorate. 74% of voters believed the criminal justice system needed a complete overhaul or major changes, and they opted for Biden by 73%. Biden won all other major demographic groups, including 52% of Whites (the first time since 1964 that a Democratic candidate won the white vote in Maryland), 69% of Latinos, 79% of Jews, 54% of Protestants, and 51% of Catholics.[4]

Biden flipped Frederick County in the Washington, D.C., exurbs and Talbot County on the Eastern Shore Democratic for the first time since 1964.[5] He also flipped Kent County on the Eastern Shore, home of Washington College, Democratic for the first time since 2008. In another college county on the Eastern Shore, Wicomico (home of Salisbury University), Trump won but was held below 50% of the vote for the first time for a Republican nominee since 1996.

Primary elections

[edit]

The primary elections were originally scheduled for April 28, 2020. On March 17, they were moved to June 2 due to concerns over the COVID-19 pandemic.[6]

Republican primary

[edit]

Donald Trump won the Republican primary, and thus received all of the state's 38 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention.[7]

Democratic primary

[edit]
This section is an excerpt from 2020 Maryland Democratic presidential primary § MDresults.[edit]
2020 Maryland Democratic presidential primary[8]
Candidate Votes % Delegates[9]
Joe Biden 879,753 83.72 96
Bernie Sanders (withdrawn) 81,939 7.80
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn) 27,134 2.58
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn) 7,180 0.68
Michael Bloomberg (withdrawn) 6,773 0.64
Andrew Yang (withdrawn) 6,670 0.63
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn) 5,685 0.54
Tulsi Gabbard (withdrawn) 4,226 0.40
Cory Booker (withdrawn) 2,662 0.25
Michael Bennet (withdrawn) 2,291 0.22
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn) 897 0.09
Julian Castro (withdrawn) 760 0.07
Tom Steyer (withdrawn) 671 0.06
Deval Patrick (withdrawn) 406 0.04
Uncommitted 23,726 2.26
Total 1,050,773 100% 96

Green primary

[edit]
2020 Maryland Green Party primary[10][11]
Candidate Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Round 4
Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes %
Howie Hawkins 34 53.1% 34 61.8% 34 64.15% 34 68%
Dario Hunter 16 25% 16 29.1% 16 30.18% 16 32%
Kent Mesplay 2 3.1% 3 5.5% 3 5.66% Eliminated
Write-ins 2 3.1% 2 3.6% Eliminated
Sedinam Moyowasiza-Curry 1 1.6% Eliminated
Empty ballot 9 14.1% Eliminated
Total votes 64 100.0%

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[12] Safe D September 10, 2020
Inside Elections[13] Safe D September 4, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[14] Safe D July 14, 2020
Politico[15] Safe D September 8, 2020
RCP[16] Safe D August 3, 2020
Niskanen[17] Safe D July 26, 2020
CNN[18] Safe D August 3, 2020
The Economist[19] Safe D September 2, 2020
CBS News[20] Likely D August 16, 2020
270towin[21] Safe D August 2, 2020
ABC News[22] Safe D July 31, 2020
NPR[23] Likely D August 3, 2020
NBC News[24] Safe D August 6, 2020
538[25] Safe D September 9, 2020

Polling

[edit]

Graphical summary

[edit]


Aggregate polls

[edit]
Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other/
Undecided
[a] 		Margin
270 to Win[26] October 7–26, 2020 November 3, 2020 60.0% 31.7% 8.3% Biden +28.3
Real Clear Politics[27] September 4 – October 24, 2020 November 3, 2020 60.3% 31.0% 8.7% Biden +29.3
FiveThirtyEight[28] until November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 63.1% 31.6% 5.3% Biden +31.4
Average 61.1% 31.4% 7.4% Biden +29.7

Polls

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Jo
Jorgensen
Libertarian 		Howie
Hawkins
Green 		Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios[29] Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 3,216 (LV) ± 2.5% 31%[c] 66% – – – –
Swayable[30] Oct 23 – Nov 1, 2020 503 (LV) ± 5.7% 31% 67% 2% 0% – –
SurveyMonkey/Axios[29] Oct 1–28, 2020 5,820 (LV) – 32% 66% – – – –
Gonzalez Maryland Poll[31] Oct 19–24, 2020 820 (RV) ± 3.5% 33% 58% – – 3%[d] 6%
Goucher College[32] Sep 30 – Oct 4, 2020 776 (LV) ± 3.5% 30% 61% 2% 2% 3%[e] 2%
Change Research/Our Voice Maryland[33] Sep 29 – Oct 1, 2020 650 (V) ± 4.55% 32% 61% – – – –
SurveyMonkey/Axios[29] Sep 1–30, 2020 2,364 (LV) – 31% 67% – – – 2%
OpinionWorks[34] Sep 4–11, 2020 753 (LV) – 30% 62% – – 3%[d] 5%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[29] Aug 1–31, 2020 1,813 (LV) – 31% 66% – – – 3%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[29] Jul 1–31, 2020 1,911 (LV) – 32% 66% – – – 2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[29] Jun 8–30, 2020 1,175 (LV) – 34% 64% – – – 2%
Gonzalez Maryland Poll[35] May 19–23, 2020 810 (LV) ± 3.5% 31% 59% – – – 6%
Goucher College[36] Feb 13–19, 2020 718 (LV) ± 3.6% 35% 60% – – 1%[f] 4%[g]
Former candidates

with Donald Trump and Michael Bloomberg

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Michael
Bloomberg (D) 		Undecided
Goucher College[36] Feb 13–19, 2020 718 (LV) ± 3.6% 32% 59% –

with Donald Trump and Pete Buttigieg

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Pete
Buttigieg (D) 		Undecided
Goucher College[36] Feb 13–19, 2020 718 (LV) ± 3.6% 33% 58% –

with Donald Trump and Tulsi Gabbard

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Tulsi
Gabbard (D) 		Undecided
Goucher College[36] Feb 13–19, 2020 718 (LV) ± 3.6% 35% 52% –

with Donald Trump and Amy Klobuchar

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Amy
Klobuchar (D) 		Undecided
Goucher College[36] Feb 13–19, 2020 718 (LV) ± 3.6% 32% 59% –

with Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Bernie
Sanders (D) 		Undecided
Goucher College[36] Feb 13–19, 2020 718 (LV) ± 3.6% 34% 61% –

with Donald Trump and Tom Steyer

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Tom
Steyer (D) 		Undecided
Goucher College[36] Feb 13–19, 2020 718 (LV) ± 3.6% 36% 54% –

with Donald Trump and Elizabeth Warren

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Elizabeth
Warren (D) 		Undecided
Goucher College[36] Feb 13–19, 2020 718 (LV) ± 3.6% 35% 59% –
Hypothetical polling

with Donald Trump and Generic Democrat

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Generic
Democrat 		Other Undecided
Goucher College[37] Sep 13–18, 2019 548 (RV) ± 4.2% 28% 65% 3%[h] 4%
DFM Research[38] Jan 19–22, 2019 500 (A) ± 4.4% 31% 53% – 16%

Results

[edit]
2020 United States presidential election in Maryland[39]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Joe Biden
Kamala Harris 		1,985,023 65.36% +5.03%
Republican Donald Trump
Mike Pence 		976,414 32.15% −1.76%
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen 		33,488 1.10% −1.76%
Green Howie Hawkins
Angela Walker 		15,799 0.52% −0.77%
Bread and Roses Jerome Segal
John de Graaf 		5,884 0.19% N/A
Write-in 20,422 0.67% -0.94%
Total votes 3,037,030 100%

By county

[edit]
County Joe Biden
Democratic 		Donald Trump
Republican 		Various candidates
Other parties 		Margin Total votes cast
# % # % # % # %
Allegany 9,158 29.89% 20,886 68.16% 597 1.95% -11,728 -38.27% 30,641
Anne Arundel 172,823 55.82% 127,821 41.28% 8,973 2.90% 45,002 14.54% 309,617
Baltimore 258,409 62.28% 146,202 35.24% 10,321 2.49% 112,207 27.04% 414,932
Baltimore City 207,260 87.28% 25,374 10.69% 4,827 2.03% 181,886 76.59% 237,461
Calvert 22,587 45.99% 25,346 51.61% 1,179 2.40% -2,759 -5.62% 49,112
Caroline 5,095 32.26% 10,283 65.11% 416 2.63% -5,188 -32.85% 15,794
Carroll 36,456 36.34% 60,218 60.02% 3,635 3.64% -23,762 -23.68% 100,327
Cecil 16,809 35.42% 29,439 62.03% 1,214 2.56% -12,630 -26.61% 47,462
Charles 62,171 69.47% 25,579 28.58% 1,748 1.95% 36,592 40.89% 89,498
Dorchester 6,857 42.92% 8,764 54.85% 356 2.23% -1,907 -11.93% 15,977
Frederick 77,675 53.34% 63,682 43.73% 4,258 2.92% 13,993 9.61% 145,615
Garrett 3,281 21.02% 12,002 76.88% 328 2.10% -8,721 -55.86% 15,611
Harford 63,095 42.58% 80,930 54.61% 4,161 2.81% -17,835 -12.03% 148,186
Howard 129,433 70.70% 48,390 26.43% 5,239 2.86% 81,043 44.27% 183,062
Kent 5,329 49.37% 5,195 48.13% 270 2.50% 134 1.24% 10,794
Montgomery 419,569 78.61% 101,222 18.96% 12,952 2.43% 318,347 59.65% 533,743
Prince George's 379,208 89.26% 37,090 8.73% 8,557 2.01% 342,118 80.53% 424,855
Queen Anne's 10,709 35.35% 18,741 61.87% 840 2.77% -8,032 -26.52% 30,290
St. Mary's 23,138 41.57% 30,826 55.38% 1,701 3.06% -7,688 -13.81% 55,665
Somerset 4,241 41.80% 5,739 56.56% 167 1.65% -1,498 -14.76% 10,147
Talbot 11,062 49.04% 10,946 48.53% 547 2.43% 116 0.51% 22,555
Washington 26,044 38.42% 40,224 59.35% 1,511 2.23% -14,180 -20.93% 67,779
Wicomico 22,054 47.72% 22,944 49.65% 1,218 2.64% -890 -1.93% 46,216
Worcester 12,560 39.63% 18,571 58.60% 560 1.77% -6,011 -18.97% 31,691
Totals 1,985,023 65.36% 976,414 32.15% 75,593 2.49% 1,008,609 33.21% 3,037,030

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

[edit]

Biden won 7 of the state's 8 congressional districts.[40]

District Biden Trump Representative
1st 39.1% 58.8% Andy Harris
2nd 65.8% 32.4% Dutch Ruppersberger
3rd 68.7% 29.4% John Sarbanes
4th 79.1% 19.2% Anthony Brown
5th 68.6% 29.7% Steny Hoyer
6th 60.6% 37.5% David Trone
7th 78.4% 20% Kweisi Mfume
8th 69% 28.9% Jamie Raskin

Analysis

[edit]

Biden's performance was the strongest in Maryland for any candidate since Horatio Seymour's 67.2% in 1868. In terms of statewide vote share, Trump performed worse than any Republican since 1912, when the national Republican vote was split by former President Theodore Roosevelt's third-party run; even landslide losers Herbert Hoover in 1932, Alf Landon in 1936, and Barry Goldwater in 1964 managed higher vote shares than Trump's 32.15%. Apart from 1912, only in the antebellum elections of 1856 and 1860–when the Republican Party was not yet established in the slaveholding Old Line State–did the Republican nominee perform worse than Trump did in 2020. In this election, Maryland voted 28.75% to the left of the nation at-large.[41]

With the exception of Somerset County, every county in the state swung to Biden from Hillary Clinton's performance in 2016; many swung Democratic by double digits.[42] It was also one of five states in the nation in which Biden's victory margin was larger than one million raw votes: the others being California, New York, Massachusetts and Illinois.

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. ^ a b c d e f g h i Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  4. ^ a b "Someone else" with 3%
  5. ^ "Refused" with 3%
  6. ^ "Other" with 1%; would not vote with 0%
  7. ^ Includes "Refused"
  8. ^ "Neither Democratic nor Republican; will vote third party" with 2%; "refused" with 1%

References

[edit]
  1. ^ "Official Turnout (By Party and County)" (PDF).
  2. ^ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Archived from the original on August 2, 2018. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  3. ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  4. ^ "Maryland Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
  5. ^ "County winners, 1836-2016". Google Docs. Retrieved November 15, 2020.
  6. ^ "Maryland postpones April 28 primary election over coronavirus". Politico. March 17, 2020.
  7. ^ "Maryland Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved June 3, 2020.
  8. ^ "2020 Presidential Primary Election Results". Maryland State Board of Elections. Retrieved October 14, 2020.
  9. ^ "Delegate Tracker". interactives.ap.org. Associated Press. Retrieved June 3, 2020.
  10. ^ "HOWIE HAWKINS WINS MARYLAND GREEN PARTY PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY". Maryland Green Party. May 31, 2020. Retrieved June 3, 2020.
  11. ^ "2020 MGP Presidential Data" (PDF). May 31, 2020. Retrieved June 3, 2020.
  12. ^ "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  13. ^ "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  14. ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  15. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  16. ^ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  17. ^ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Archived April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.
  18. ^ David Chalian; Terence Burlij (June 11, 2020). "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
  19. ^ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
  20. ^ "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
  21. ^ "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
  22. ^ "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
  23. ^ Montanaro, Domenico (August 3, 2020). "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
  24. ^ "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. August 6, 2020. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
  25. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. August 12, 2020. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
  26. ^ "Maryland 2020 Presidential Election Polls: Biden vs. Trump - 270toWin". 270toWin.com.
  27. ^ "2020 Maryland: Trump vs. Biden | RealClearPolling". www.realclearpolling.com.
  28. ^ Best, Ryan; Bycoffe, Aaron; King, Ritchie; Mehta, Dhrumil; Wiederkehr, Anna (June 28, 2018). "Maryland : President: general election Polls". FiveThirtyEight.
  29. ^ a b c d e f "Candidate preference". www.tableau.com.
  30. ^ "Swayable". Archived from the original on November 27, 2020.
  31. ^ "Gonzalez Maryland Poll" (PDF).
  32. ^ "Goucher College" (PDF).
  33. ^ Kurtz, Josh (October 7, 2020). "Forget the 2020 Election. Here Are Some Early Poll Results on 2022".
  34. ^ OpinionWorks
  35. ^ "Gonzalez Maryland Poll" (PDF).
  36. ^ a b c d e f g h "Goucher College" (PDF).
  37. ^ "Goucher College" (PDF).
  38. ^ "DFM Research" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on February 9, 2019. Retrieved April 24, 2019.
  39. ^ "2020 Election Results". Maryland State Board of Elections. Retrieved December 10, 2020.
  40. ^ "Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for 2020, 2016, and 2012".
  41. ^ "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections". uselectionatlas.org. Retrieved March 31, 2023.
  42. ^ "Presidential Election Results: Biden Wins". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved August 30, 2022.

Further reading

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[edit]
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