This is an archive of past discussions with User:KingEdinburgh. Do not edit the contents of this page. If you wish to start a new discussion or revive an old one, please do so on the current talk page.
As usual, the Army is irritatingly late with announcing their assignments until after confirmation.
MG Gingrich: Has extensive background and qualifications in force generation, force assessment and readiness. It's highly likely to be Deputy Chief of Staff, G8 (LTG Peterson has served since 2021).
MG Gainey: About time, since Gainey has a 2019 date of rank. Calling it. Gainey is succeeding LTG Karbler (who served since 2020) at SMDC. With Gen Cotton getting STRATCOM, it was the end of the road for Karbler. With Gainey's cookie-cutter air defense artillery background, he couldn't possibly be nominated for anything else. Just to be safe, dark-horse chance at Director, Missile Defense Agency.
MG Hoyle: Another obvious one. She's succeeding LTG(P) Hamilton as Deputy Chief of Staff, G4, with Hamilton due for promotion to general to succeed GEN Daly at AMC.
MG Collins: Difficult. Director, Hypersonics is out since LTG Rasch assumed office fairly recently. The other 3-star acquisition positions open to the Army have people who served since at least 2020 - Director, Defense Contract Management Agency (LTG Bassett), DCG Acquisitions, Army Futures Command (LTG Todd) and Director, Army Acquisition Corps (LTG Marion). Ranked by likelihood, DCG Acquisitions is #1, Director, AAC is #2 (recent AAC directors tend to rotate in from non-AAC field posts) and Director, DCMA is #3 (rotation between services has been fairly consistent for this joint assignment).
LTG Jensen, director of the Army National Guard, just received a new official portrait, which is a good indicator that he's retiring this year (previous discussions stated that the next CNGB will be an Air Force general, and the VCNGB will likely be a current major general, so no dice for Jensen). The Director typically serves a four-year term, renewable once, but in recent years, the term has by convention stabilized to 2-3 years.
No potential candidates to succeed him at the moment, the criteria are - below 60 so they can serve a maximum 4-year term with no waiver (they typically don't push the envelope unless it's an exceptional candidate), currently serving adjutant general from the Army (excluding non-state territories like Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands), currently serving current deputy directors or former deputy directors of the Army National Guard (MG Andonie now), currently serving NGB joint staff Army major generals.
Navy
Both Navy nominations have announced assignments, so I'll instead prattle about the turnovers above them, namely of VADM Thomas at Seventh Fleet and VADM Cooper at Naval Forces Central Command.
VADM Thomas: I highly doubt Thomas is retiring so soon. Seventh Fleet commanders have historically rotated to staff billets upon completion of their tour, so I'm assuming Thomas is succeeding VADM Conn as DCNO N9. The 60-year old Conn, as EPMen stated in his predictions, is already pushing it age-wise. However, a second three-star tour will severely hamper Thomas's chance for four-star (EPMen predicted him as a candidate for Pacific Fleet or VCNO), as he will be 60 years old this November, and 62-63, just shy of the mandatory retirement age, if he serves the full three years as DCNO N9.
VADM Cooper: NAVCENT has a spottier record of follow-on assignments with its commanders. With Cooper having only served one staff assignment as a flag officer (Chief of Legislative Affairs), I doubt he's getting a staff assignment. Thus, he's most likely succeeding VADM Kitchener as Commander, Naval Surface Forces. With that in mind, some of us have long believed that Cooper is a four-star hopeful, and COMNAVSURFOR is a dead-end assignment historically. So Assistant to the CJCS (VADM Kilrain is overdue to retire) and DCNO N8 (VADM Hughes has served since 2021 but in EPMen's predictions is a potential VCNO candidate) are far-off predictions too. Assuming Number two happens, Cooper won't formally be reassigned till the second half of the year, given the promotion track that has to take place (Wikoff > Cooper > Hughes > Franchetti [current VCNO] > Gilday [current CNO]), since ADM Gilday's statutory term ends in August 2023.
Air Force
Gebara's assignment has been announced, so I'll make a fairly likely prediction for Lt Gen Dawkins, who he's replacing as DCS A10.
@SuperWIKI Well, we now know for sure that VADM Thomas is not retiring so soon. In order of likelihood, I'd say:
1. DCNO, N9
2. DCNO, N7 (depends on if VADM Hughes gets reassigned/ promoted)
3a. DCNO, N8 (RADM Gumbleton or RADM Skillman more likely)
3b. NAVAIR/ AIRPAC
As for LTG Brennan, no obvious choice. Assistant to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff is possible. Maybe AFRICOM Deputy, First Army, FORSCOM Deputy (if LTG Calvert retires), Eighth Army, V Corps, or I Corps (if LTG Brunson retires or gets reassigned). No obvious Special Forces position unless LTG Braga retires early (which is doubtful since he's one of the younger 3-stars in the Army). EPMen (talk) 05:52, 7 March 2023 (UTC)
Actually, now that I think about it further, it's possible that LTG Braga replaces LTG Piatt as Director of the Army Staff and Brennan takes his place a Army Special Operations Command. LTG Piatt is retiring this summer and per the latest Navy flag roster, RADM Sands isn't supposed to become USSOCOM J3 until July, so plenty of time for all of these moves to happen. @SuperWIKIEPMen (talk) 06:03, 7 March 2023 (UTC)
@EPMen: Since DCG Acquisitions, Army Futures Command is being downgraded to two-star level with MG Dean's assignment, likely that MG Collins is going to be Director, Army Acquisition Corps. And per the roster, Sands is to be USSOCOM Chief of Staff, not J3. SuperWIKI (talk) 10:44, 7 March 2023 (UTC)
VADM Dwyer - Likely an assignment on the Navy Staff, which is common for outgoing fleet commanders. Either DCNO N3/5 (currently VADM Black) or DCNO N9 (currently VADM Conn), with an outside chance at Commander, Naval Air Forces (currently VADM Whitesell).
RADM Cheever - Reasonably certain it's Commander, Naval Air Forces. His official biography is a cookie-cutter list of naval air training and operational posts, aside from (and unlike VADM Dwyer) Chief of Naval Air Training.
RADM Downey - Either principal military deputy assistant secretary of the Navy (research, development and acquisition) (currently VADM Morley) or Commander, Naval Air Systems Command (currently VADM Chebi).
VADM Clapperton/ MG Heritage: One will get CYBERCOM Deputy, the other will get SPACECOM Deputy. Outside chance that MG Heritage gets DC, Information if LTG Glavy leaves that position early. — Preceding unsigned comment added by EPMen (talk • contribs)
@KingEdinburgh, EPMen, Neovu79, and Garuda28: Whoopee! Here comes the first tsunami of the year - and they won't get confirmed for months (notwithstanding divine intervention or a miracle compromise) because Senator Tuberville is against the Pentagon's abortion policy. Nevertheless, here's my predictions:
PN532 - Dale R. White: Commander, Air Force Life Cycle Management Center (currently Lt Gen Morris). The other potential post, PEO F-35 (currently Lt Gen Schmidt), just turned over last year; from reading the FY2024 DOD Weapons catalogue, it's unlikely a new fighter is being created that warrants a new PEO.
PN546 - James E. Pitts: EPMen, looks like Pitts isn't retiring after all. If we're assuming that VADM Houston will be promoted to become Director, Naval Reactors, Pitts will be succeeding him as Commander, Submarine Forces. Like RADM Cheever before, incredibly cookie-cutter submarine career track.
PN540 - Roger B. Turner: Potentially DC, PP&O. The MEFs either just turned over or (as with I MEF) have already announced their nominee.
PN538 - David M. Hodne: My goodness, I've never seen a general with the word infantry stencilled into each and every one of his roles before. I'm stumped. Help!
PN536 - Laura Lenderman: Only two obvious positions, both of which turned over only last year. Deputy Commander, Air Mobility Command or Deputy Commander, TRANSCOM.
PN535 - Kevin Schneider: Commander, Pacific Air Forces. Once he takes command, Gen Kelly will be the last remaining Air Force MAJCOM commander who was present in the four-star list in early 2021 - when I first started working on the article.
The nominations of MajGen Anderson and GEN George are self-explanatory since their new assignments are in the nominations by statute. Sidenote, EPMen, I also find it funny that now we'll have a Senator Cotton and a General Cotton on and testifying before the Senate Armed Services Committee. Cotton "N" Kelly. SuperWIKI (talk) 11:26, 21 April 2023 (UTC)
@SuperWIKI Whoa. Huge. A few I might have different takes on.
-First off, MG Hodne could be getting Director of the Army Staff or FORSCOM Deputy if LTG Calvert retires (late 2020 DOR). First Army is also a dark horse possibility.
-I disagree on VADM Cooper. I think he could be getting DCNO N9. ACJCS is another possibility.
-DCNO N4 is another possibility for RADM Gray, but Navy Installations Command is more likely.
-I think Pleus could succeed Schneider as Director of the Air Staff with ACJCS being a possibility for him as well.
-On Lenderman, I have a different prediction, but another non-announced chain of events would have to happen first. If CQ Brown gets CJCS, and Van Ovost gets CSAF, I think Lt. Gen. Brian Robinson could get TRANSCOM (AETC is a 3-star position, but it is a major command, he served as TRANSCOM J3 as an O-8, Biden/ Austin have been big on promoting Black generals and they may also not want to promote Gen. Minihan given his outspoken rhetoric on China), then Lenderman could get AETC (she was AETC's Director of Plans, Programs, and Requirements). EPMen (talk) 15:33, 21 April 2023 (UTC)
My reflections after today's announcements (By the time you read this, there could already be new nominations that render some of these points moot).
What I got correct:
-RADM Gray to Navy Installations Command.
-RADM Davids to Superintendent, United States Naval Academy.
-RADM McLane to Naval Surfaces Forces/ Naval Surface Force, US Pacific Fleet.
-Lt. Gen. Pleus to Director of Staff, US Air Force.
What surprised me a little:
-VADM Cooper to CENTCOM Deputy is a bit surprising. But Guillot has been a 3-star long enough that his likely retirement is not a complete shock.
-MG Turner to III MEF. Thought Bierman and Furness would've just swapped.
What surprised me a lot:
-RADM Gumbleton to Deputy Commander, US Fleet Forces Command. Maybe RADM Skillman could still get DCNO, N8 after all. Only other possibility there in my opinion is RADM Dollaga.
-RADM Pitts to DCNO, N9. Now it'll either be RADM Converse, RADM Jablon, or RADM Perry that takes over Submarine Forces if VADM Houston gets the Naval Reactors gig.
-Maj. Gen. Lenderman to PACAF Deputy. She's NEVER had any assignments in the Pacific theater. Also surprising since Lt. Gen. Jacobson only has a 2021 DOR. But as long as PACAF Deputy has been a 3-star position, it's always been a mobility pilot.
-Brig. Gen. Dale White to MILDEP, ASA for ATL. Lt. Gen. Shipton has only been in the role since last summer so I doubt she's retiring. She's had a lot of strategy roles, so maybe she'll get ACJCS. Or she could transfer to the Space Force (plenty of space assignments in her career) and get VCSO. EPMen (talk) 02:18, 25 April 2023 (UTC)
Yeah, I can't see any other open position for him, aside from (until today) CSAF, but General Van Ovost seems to be the heir apparent. VADM Houston is 100% going to succeed ADM Caldwell at Naval Reactors. Lt Gen Hurry is possibly going to become DLA director. If she's succeeding Lt Gen Miller at A4 instead, it's a mild humiliation, Miller's had no more than one year in both positions. The former prediction, however, now leaves an open spot for MG Simerly. Where is he going, @EPMen:? SuperWIKI (talk) 08:09, 3 May 2023 (UTC)
Agreed that Wilsbach will take over USNORTHCOM/ NORAD and that Houston is 100% going to Naval Reactors.
If Maj. Gen. Hurry will be taking over DLA, my next best guess for MG Simerly is Deputy Commanding General/ Chief of Staff at TRADOC. If that is the case, LTG Gervais could be retiring (she has a 2021 DOR) or potentially be succeeding LTG McKean as Deputy Commanding General, Futures and Concepts at Futures Command. EPMen (talk) 12:22, 3 May 2023 (UTC)
@SuperWIKI It's official that VADM Houston will be succeeding ADM Caldwell at Naval Reactors (I called it as far back as when Houston was nominated for the 3-star rank).
Seems Wilsbach is going to Air Combat Command. Maybe Kelly will go to NORAD/NORTHCOM instead, notwithstanding earlier predictions. SuperWIKI (talk) 04:14, 5 May 2023 (UTC)
Maybe. Or Kelly could be retiring. And maybe a Navy person could (most likely VADM Koehler) could be getting NORAD/ NORTHCOM after all. No question Schaefer is retiring with Hurry becoming AFMC Deputy. I would've thought Dertien was destined for that role. Shipton's next move is still a major question mark, but I wouldn't rule out a transfer to the Space Force.
Very doubtful that Koehler will be getting USNORTHCOM/NORAD. His career is more focused in the Pacific. More importantly, NORAD is traditionally an Air Force command. Neovu79 (talk) 06:23, 8 May 2023 (UTC)
@Neovu79 I wouldn't normally except VADM Koehler to get NORAD/ NORTHCOM, but the Navy is underrepresented among combatant commanders. Lots of NORAD/ NORTHCOM commanders came with heavy Pacific experience. General Wilsbach is probably more likely, but VADM Koehler is the most likely Navy officer to get it in my opinion, but I supposed ADM Caudle has a chance too (but only one non-pilot ever has commanded NORAD/ NORTHCOM, retired Army General Charles Jacoby) EPMen (talk) 01:52, 17 May 2023 (UTC)
Overall: Pork-barrel spending and individual interests of members of Congress (Senator Schatz was very concerned about how it conflicts with DOD's own professional interests and targets), misuse of unfunded priority lists (Senator Warren received robotic, evasive answers from every combatant commander who used it; DOD in SecDef Austin's and GEN Milley's hearing expressed support for repealing its mandatory usage)
Combatant commands: Boko Haram, Sudan, Somalia (AFRICOM), over-the-horizon capabilities, Afghanistan and Iran (CENTCOM), Russia and Ukraine (EUCOM), China, China, China, nukes, North Korea, China, China, China, Guam (INDOPACOM), please shut up about the Chinese spy balloon (NORTHCOM), literally nothing from unfunded priorities because everything of importance was discussed in closed session (SOCOM), fentanyl and drug trafficking, Title 42, military powers of arrest and conflict with the Department of Homeland Security (SOUTHCOM), also Russia and China (STRATCOM). Have not watched TRANSCOM hearings yet.
Services: Failure to meet recruiting and retention targets (everybody), poor Army base and home conditions, DEI training and CRT (the Army), failure to meet the congressionally-mandated 31 amphibious ship requirements because the Navy wants to scrap faster than it can replace but the Marines are pushing back (Navy and Marine Corps). Have only watched one Air Force hearings with the House Appropriations Defense Subcommittee, but couldn't tell what they were talking about because their mics are so soft. SuperWIKI (talk) 08:31, 3 May 2023 (UTC)
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I'm hiding the nomination of General Brown to be Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff for the time being. While the nomination seems all but certain, there is no official source on Congress.gov stating that the nomination has actually been sent to the Senate. An insider source telling us that Brown is the prospective nominee doesn't seem sufficient amount of proof for me.
Remember that user I mentioned a while back who insulted me on my talk page? That user has been trying to plug Air Force generals for the CJCS position (e.g. replacing Mark Milley with the failed-CJCS candidate David L. Goldfein) over and over, with multiple sock accounts, including adding the same nomination that you added. Thus, I also don't want to show double standards that they can use against me if they use another sock account to get on Wikipedia. SuperWIKI (talk) 05:30, 25 May 2023 (UTC)
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Hi KingEdinburgh! I'll be leaving for mandatory national service on 11 July, and will be in rotation for about 2 years. For at least the first two months of service, I will be in basic training. As such, until I transition to vocational training (which by nature of my physical standards will be clerical shift work), I won't be free to update and edit the usual pages as much as I used to during this two-month period.
So, if it doesn't inconvenience you and the other users I'm messaging, I just wanted to give notice on these issues and hope for your help in updating the usual Wikipedia articles as necessary. I thank you for the help. SuperWIKI (talk) 07:51, 26 June 2023 (UTC)
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BREAKING NEWS: CNO is going to ADM Franchetti after all with ADM Paparo getting INDOPACOM (surprised they're announcing in this early). Also SHOCKED that VADM Kilby will getting VCNO, especially since he and ADM Franchetti are both surface warfare officers.
On another note, prior to it being announced that Franchetti is getting CNO, I saw an article (I think from USNI News, but I was too busy to share at the moment) theorizing that the reason Secretary Austin recommended Paparo for CNO was to give the Army a shot at INDOPACOM but the Army candidate mentioned was GEN Fenton, not LTG Clark. Although I do think LTG Clark is a possibility for US Forces Korea/ UNC/ CFC.
I checked congress.gov this morning and saw no nominations so when I saw this on the CBS Evening News tonight, I was shocked. Can't remember another time where the White House announced military personnel moves prior to being sent to the Senate. @Neovu79EPMen (talk) 04:25, 22 July 2023 (UTC)
It doesn't happen often, but it's not unprecedented. Recently Gen. CQ was nominated on 25 May 2023, before it was sent to the Senate on 30 May 2023. Neovu79 (talk) 04:40, 22 July 2023 (UTC)
You can't even imagine the backlog on the three-star and two-star articles I maintain. As for Clark, I think he could still move up to INDOPACOM after USFK and 3 years of Paparo. SuperWIKI (talk) 02:55, 22 July 2023 (UTC)
I think you guys may want to temper your expectations on some of these joint commands. While a few unified commands have revolving commanders from different services, a vast majority of them are "unofficially" reserved to one (or two) specific service(s). INDOPACOM is traditionally a Navy command. That and the fact that no other service has ever been its commander, makes it difficult to believe that they would assign someone from another service to a command that encomapasses 66% of our planet's oceans and control of half of the Navy's numbered fleets; two of which are the largest fleets in the Navy. SecDef Rumsfeld threw tradition out the window when he nominated Gen Martin to PACOM, and Sen. McCain helped make sure that didn't come to pass, via the Darleen Druyun scandal. ADM Fallon's nomination to CENTCOM was also unprecedented due to the majority of the command being made up of Army and Marine troops. Over 15 years later since he resigned, no other Navy officer has served as CENTCOM's commander. Prior to being dual-hatted with USNORTHCOM, NORAD's commander was strictly an Air Force general. Even then, the past three commanders and the next commander are Air Force. Neovu79 (talk) 04:29, 22 July 2023 (UTC)
@Neovu79: A question, if I may. Assuming Senator Tuberville lifts his hold in the coming months, we could have a sudden glut of promotions as a consequence. Usually, two to six three-star promotions per service occur each month. Instead, we could have up to nine four-star promotions, and over twenty three-star promotions in one month now, depending on how quickly DOD decides to fill stagnant positions.
To prevent seniority chaos if the held nominees are all promoted at once or close in date, would their dates of rank (DORs) be backdated to when they would have been promoted under ordinary, staggered circumstances? Or would all nominees to the same rank (40+ prospective three-stars as of today) be jammed into the month the hold was lifted, assuming they all get promoted around the same time? SuperWIKI (talk) 06:56, 22 July 2023 (UTC)
It’s possible that their date of ranks could be backdated. That’s not unprecedented, depending if the service chief, the service secretary, and the SecDef feel that the officer should have been promoted earlier. The most likely scenario is that the service departments and the DoD will stagger their promotion dates. Three and four-stars aren’t permanent ranks so typically promotions usually occur when they assume office, since there isn’t a set rotation for leaving an assignment like most permanent ranks. Neovu79 (talk) 13:28, 22 July 2023 (UTC)
The establishment should go well. However, Senator Tuberville's hold is still in place, thus delaying the confirmation of any appointee, either Sasseville or a new person. SuperWIKI (talk) 23:53, 17 July 2023 (UTC)
Courtesy of a very helpful Senate session where a number of Democratic senators excoriated Senator Tuberville for his hold, we now know the assignments of a number of Army LTG nominees. It's not just a handful, they're basically reading out loud as many assignments as possible to drive the point home.
MG Gingrich is going to Deputy Chief of Staff, G-8.
LTG Potter is going to be Director of the Army Staff (that surprised me).
@Neovu79 and EPMen: Thoughts? I also apologise - due to my national service obligations, I continue to be slightly slower than I used to be with tracking nominations. I mistakenly listed MG Gingrich's current assignment as CG, 1st Cavalry Division in the 3-star pending appointments section, and updated MajGen Adams's assignment as deputy commandant for programs and resources late. Goodness, I feel moderately embarrassed by this. SuperWIKI (talk) 16:06, 27 July 2023 (UTC)
No worries. Is MG Hodne going to be DCG, Army Futures Command or DCG, Futures and Concepts, Army Futures Command? EPMen (talk) 23:46, 27 July 2023 (UTC)
If at least one version the 2024 NDAA that includes Tuberville's abortion restrictions, doesn't make it to the president's desk, I expect all of these nominations to get returned to the president, after the end of this year's congressional session. Neovu79 (talk) 00:33, 14 August 2023 (UTC)
You don't expect the nominees to start pulling out and retiring en masse if those nominations are returned, right? That, in addition to those who are retiring after their extensions are complete like LTG Karbler. SuperWIKI (talk) 01:07, 14 August 2023 (UTC)
I don't expect that, but it's possible. The most likely scenario is that the Senate will agree to suspend Senate Rule XXXI, paragraph 6, and allow many of those nominations that are sitting pending in the Executive Calendar, to be carried over to the next congressional session. Assuming that no senator objects to the carry over. In other words, the Senate most agree via unanimous consent, for each nomination in the Executive Calendar. Neovu79 (talk) 06:19, 14 August 2023 (UTC)
If Tuberville decides to object to that, it would be an extremely petty move - made worse by the fact that he'll give (and have to give by convention) a snooty speech explaining why he's doing so. SuperWIKI (talk) 07:41, 14 August 2023 (UTC)
That would definitely be petty, however, Tuberville's grievance is with the SecDef and DoD policy and not with the officers themselves. If he were to do that, he would have to go through the entire process of blocking all of their nominations again, if/when the president renominates them, which will most likely be the case. It would be prudent for him to let the nominations to be carried over and continue to keep them on hold. Neovu79 (talk) 17:32, 15 August 2023 (UTC)
@SuperWIKI I've been behind on everything lately. I do now wonder if they are eliminating the position of Assistant to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff given that there hasn't been a nominee for months. The primary role of the ACJCS (not sure why the title is what it is) is to serve as the top military adviser to the Secretary of State.
Of the 3-star officers who've had their successors announced but it hasn't yet been announced whether they are retiring, the only one that I see as a strong contender to be ACJCS based on their resume is Lt. Gen. Julazadeh.
But it seems that this year and last year, there have been a lot of 3-star officers (especially in the Air Force and Marine Corps) that are retiring after 2 years in the 3-star rank instead of 3 years. (Some of these have already retired and some retirements aren't yet confirmed but hard to imagine where they'd reassigned):
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@SuperWIKI I just saw that. Still a hold on 4-star nominations but hundreds of others confirmed. Still a few Army 3-star nominees whose next assignments we don't yet know.
Almost certain that MG Michele Bredenkamp will succeed Lt. Gen. Kruse as Director's Advisor for Military Affairs, Office of the Director of National Intelligence. I could see MG Stephen Smith succeeding LTG Sims as J3 on the Joint Staff or LTG Calvert as FORSCOM Deputy.
Also, I am beginning to think the position of Assistant to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff has been eliminated. I wonder if they had to drop it when the position of Commander, Security Assistance Group–Ukraine was created. The job title is misleading anyways since their primary job is serving as the top military advisor to the Secretary of State. EPMen (talk) 23:42, 5 December 2023 (UTC)
@KingEdinburgh, @EPMen and @SuperWIKI: As you may have already heard, starting in 2024, the vice chief of the National Guard Bureau will be elevated to a four-star general. I have created a new flag, modified from the current File:Flag of the Vice Chief of the National Guard Bureau.svg, in advance of the elevation, in what is most likely what the vice chief's new flag will look like. The question I have for you is, should we add this flag to the List of active duty United States four-star officers article in advance as well? I would not recommend adding it to the Vice Chief of the National Guard Bureau and National Guard Bureau articles, since the vice chief is still currently a three-star. I would love the hear your thoughts on this matter.
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Happy New Year! I can't believe it's now been three years since I began paying attention to General/ Flag officer promotions. Like last year, I am going to make some predictions of who might be nominated for 4-star (and some 3-star) positions that are likely turning over this year. Feel free to share you thoughts @KingEdinburgh @SuperWIKI@Neovu79.
Joint 4-star:
Chief of the National Guard Bureau: Considering that the job has alternated between the Army National Guard and the Air National Guard every term since 2008, I'd say Lt. Gen. Loh is the frontrunner but I wouldn't count out Lt. Gen. Sasseville considering his notoriety surrounding 9/11. I would also throw in Lt. Gen. Caine as a dark horse.
Vice Chief of the National Guard Bureau: Newly a 4-star position. It will likely be someone from the Army National Guard, with LTG Jensen being the only current Army National Guard 3-star officer.
US Forces Korea: I'd say the frontrunners are GEN Poppas, LTG Clark, and LTG Sims. I don't think the Biden administration will promote GEN Charles Flynn considering there is a photo out there of him and his brother with Sidney Powell. It has always been an Army role but that is not an official rule so my dark horses are LtGen Jurney and VADM Cooper.
I know it won't go to Michael Flynn. I was saying that his brother (active duty GEN Charles Flynn) likely won't get promoted further because there's a photo out there of him and his brother (an election conspiracy theorist himself) with election conspiracy theorist Sidney Powell. EPMen (talk) 15:21, 2 January 2024 (UTC)
US Southern Command: The Navy is overdue for more representation in the joint 4-star ranks and SOUTHCOM has had Navy commanders in the past but considering the current SOUTHCOM Deputy Commander (VADM Holsey) has only been in the role for a year, I doubt it will happen this year. Among the Army ranks, I'd keep an eye on LTG Fletcher (who at one point served as SOUTHCOM's J5 and commanded SOCSOUTH), LTG Evans (who holds the same role that GEN Richardson held prior to her promotion), LTG Frank (who has deployed to Haiti in the past), and LTG Aguto (whose experience in security assistance would translate well to SOUTHCOM theater). From the Air Force, I'd keep an eye on Lt. Gen. Plehn (who was SOUTHCOM Deputy from 2018-21), Lt. Gen. Nahom, Lt. Gen. Bauernfeind, Lt. Gen. Basham, and Lt. Gen. Rupp. From the Marine Corps, I'd keep an eye on Lt Gen Heckl and LtGen Cavanaugh. Overall, this is probably the hardest 4-star position to predict.
US Transportation Command: I don't think the Biden administration will nominate Gen. Minihan after he made statements on China that go against the administration's official position. I'd say Lt. Gen. Robinson is the frontrunner considering he's served on the TRANSCOM staff as J3 as well as the fact that Austin has elevated a lot of Black officers. Despite being a 3-star officer, AETC is as big if not bigger than some of the 4-star Air Force commands. I'd also throw in Lt. Gen. Kosinski and Lt. Gen. Rupp, with LTG Sullivan as a dark horse.
US Fleet Forces Command: I think VADM Cooper is the frontrunner but I'd also keep an eye VADM Black and VADM Dwyer.
Air Force 4-star:
Air Mobility Command: I'd say the same Air Force officers under consideration for TRANSCOM (Lt. Gen. Robinson, Lt. Gen. Kosinski, and Lt. Gen. Rupp) will be in the mix along with well as Lt. Gen Reed.
Joint 3-star:
Way too many positions to predict all. I will note which positions I expect to come open and will make predictions for a select few. On the Joint Staff, I'm not even going to try to predict which ones will come open.
Director, J5, Joint Staff: We know that VADM Koehler is being promoted so I will predict that this role will go to VADM Boyle with MajGen Benedict also in the mix.
Senior Military Assistant to the Secretary of Defense: Not making a prediction but I do wonder if there's any possibility that Austin would choose anyone from a branch other than the Army.
Director, Defense Information Systems Agency: I'd keep an eye on Army MG Christopher Eubank, Army MG Jeth Rey, Army MG Jacqueline D. Brown (despite the fact that she was just promoted to the 2-star ranks), Army MG Robert L. Edmonson II, Marine Corps MajGen Matos, and Air Force Maj. Gen. Snoddy.
President, National Defense University: My top choices are MajGen Rock, RADM Peter A. Garvin (the current President of the Naval War College), and MG David C. Hill (the current President of the Army War College).
EUCOM Deputy: Not making a direct prediction but will note that there is very little representation from outside the Army and Air Force on the current EUCOM leadership team (I believe that RDML (sel) Thomas Shultz, the Deputy Director, for Plans, Policy, Strategy, and Capabilities, J-5/8, is the only General/ Flag officer at EUCOM headquarters from outside the Army or Air Force).
NORTHCOM/ NORAD Deputy: Not really going to try since it could be anyone from the Army Reserve, Army National Guard, or Navy Reserve. I may keep an eye on Army National Guard MG Jarrard simply because of his familial ties.
Associate Director for Military Affairs, Central Intelligence Agency: Not going to predict but will note that it has always been filled by someone with a special forces/ special operations background.
Commander, NATO Special Operations Headquarters: Not making a prediction.
United States Security Coordinator, Israel-Palestinian Authority: Not making a prediction but will mention that I saw an article from 2022 that the Pentagon was considering downgrading the role to an O-6 position (https://www.axios.com/2022/06/01/pentagon-security-coordinator-rank-palestinians). I doubt that will happen now considering the current Israel-Hamas war but I still wouldn't rule out a downgrade to a 2-star role.
Army 3-star:
Military Deputy for Budget, Assistant Secretary of the Army for Financial Management and Comptroller: MG Mark S. Bennett is the obvious frontrunner.
Inspector General of the Army: Not making a prediction.
Deputy Chief of Staff, G6: Same Army names in contention for DISA Director (MG Jeth Rey, MG Jacqueline D. Brown, MG Christopher Eubank, and MG Robert L. Edmonson II).
Deputy Commanding General/ Chief of Staff, US Army Training and Doctrine Command: Not making a prediction.
Commanding General, I Corps: So many possibilities but I'd say MG McFarlane is the favorite.
Commanding General, US Army North: Not making a prediction.
Commanding General, US Army Special Operations Command: Multiple possibilities but I'd keep an eye on MG Kevin Leahy, MG Joshua Rudd, and MG Angle.
Commanding General, US Army Corps of Engineers: It's up or out for MG William H. Graham Jr. and MG David C. Hill, but I'd also throw MG Kimberly Colloton into the mix.
Chief of the Army Reserve: So many possibilities but I'd keep an eye on MG Jami Shawley.
Chief of the Army National Guard: So many possibilities but I'd once again keep an eye on MG Jarrard.
Navy 3-star:
Deputy Chief of Naval Operations for Operations, Plans, and Strategy (N3/ N5): Not making a prediction.
Commander, US Third Fleet: I'd keep an eye RADM Jeffrey T. Anderson.
Commander, US Sixth Fleet: I'd keep an eye RADM Schlise, RADM Fred Pyle, RADM Christopher Sweeney, and RADM Anthony Carullo.
Principal Military Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Navy for Research, Development, and Acquisition: Not making a prediction.
Commander, Naval Air Systems Command: Not making a prediction.
Commander, Naval Information Forces: I'd keep an eye RADM John Okon, RADM Michael Vernazza, and RADM Nicholas Homan.
Inspector General of the Navy: Not making a prediction.
Chief of the Navy Reserve: Not making a prediction.
Marine Corps 3-star:
Deputy Commandant for Combat Development & Integration: I'd say MajGen Erc Austin is the frontrunner (as he's previously served under the Deputy Commandant for CD&I) but I'd also keep an eye on MajGen Benjamin T. Watson (given his experienced commanding the Marine Corps Warfighting Laboratory).
Deputy Commandant for Installations and Logistics: I'd keep an eye MajGen David Maxwell and MajGen Keith Reventlow.
Commanding General, Marine Corps Training and Education Command: I'd say MajGen Bargeron is the frontrunner given his previous command of Marine Corps University. I'd also throw in MajGen William Bowers, who also previously commanded Marine Corps University.
Commanding General, III Marine Expeditionary Force: The same usual suspects of former division commanders (MajGen Eric Austin, MajGen Bargeron, MajGen Benedict and MajGen Benjamin T. Watson).
Air Force 3-star:
Deputy Chief of Staff for Installations, Logistics, and Force Protection (A4): Maj. Gen. King is the clear frontrunner.
Commander, US Forces Japan/ Fifth Air Force: I'd keep an eye on Maj. Gen. Carey, who has previously the commanded the 18th Wing and Maj. Gen. Jobe, who previously the commanded the 35th Fighter Wing.
Commander, US Alaskan Command (US Northern Command)/ Commander, Eleventh Air Force): I'd keep an eye on Maj. Gen. France, who has previously the commanded the 3rd Operations Group.
Commander, Air Education and Training Command: For the third time, I'd once again keep an eye on Maj. Gen. France (who served as Aide-de-Camp to the AETC Commander), as well as the current AETC Deputy Maj. Gen. Sears, Maj. Gen. Cunningham and Maj. Gen. Nichols (who has previously the commanded the 14th Flying Training Wing).
Surgeon General of the Air Force: Gen. DeGoes is the clear frontrunner.
Superintendent, United States Air Force Academy: Unlike the other service academies, the Air Force Academy HAS had one non-alumnus (Lt. Gen. Rosa, and alumnus of The Citadel) serve as Superintendent. If any non-alumnus were to become Superintendent, it would be Maj. Gen. Edmondson, a former Commandant of Cadets whose space operations background would came in handy with the continued integration of the Space Force into the Air Force Academy. Like with AETC, I'd keep an eye on Maj. Gen. France, Maj. Gen. Sears, Maj. Gen. Cunningham and Maj. Gen. Nichols. I'd also throw in Maj. Gen. David Abba (who served as Intercollegiate Athletic Program Manager at the Academy following graduation) as well as Maj. Gen. Bibb, Maj. Gen. Julian Cheater, Maj. Gen. Dertien, Maj. Gen. Dunn, and Maj. Gen. Ekman. Pretty much all current Air Force 2-star who attended the Academy and have been in the two-star rank since at least 2022 will be in the mix. I don't think we will get a Superintendent from the Space Force quite yet. EPMen (talk) 21:05, 1 January 2024 (UTC)
Any chance of turning this over-illustrated series of lists into an actual article?. If I had a sense of humour I would fild the table of epaulettes almost as funny as all the effing medal ribbons, but I don't.TheLongTone (talk) 15:41, 26 January 2024 (UTC)
It's not there on my end - I've noticed that updates on Congress.gov and military websites come late in my geographic location. SuperWIKI (talk) 04:59, 3 February 2024 (UTC)
Very unfortunate. I think there was another actually but it hasn't received attention because it was a Brigadier General nominee. It appears Jose E. Sumangil (USAF) is working a civilian job per LinkedIn. He had been nominated for Brigadier General and confirmed. @SuperWIKIEPMen (talk) 03:53, 9 February 2024 (UTC)
Air Education and Training Command → Airman Development Command − The command is to be renamed to better prepare Airmen the range of duties they can expect in a more expeditionary force, and Agile Combat Development doctrine has now become the norm. The rename will also include an increase the command's responsibility and oversight over programs like NCO academies[1]
Great all you guys are ahead of me!! Good to hear you're all tracking this. EPMen please copy me in on all new such news when you hear it. Courtesy fyi to Lineagegeek though I am sure he has all of this already. Buckshot06(talk)02:41, 22 February 2024 (UTC)
Cheers mate. Thanks from the sheep too. Do also note the new proposed organization splits wing commanders from base commanders which will make for a lot of changes down the line.. Buckshot06(talk)02:44, 22 February 2024 (UTC)
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@KingEdinburgh, Neovu79, and EPMen: Even as Senator Tuberville's (and Schmitt's hold) has been lifted, the transition has been slow. Many nominees confirmed last December have yet to assume their new commands, and the usual promotion is simultaneously arrives on scheduled. Thought I'd update everyone:
GEN Hamilton is suspended as AMC commanding general. As stated above, Neovu suspects that he will retire. Obvious 3-star nominees are obvious - acting CG LTG Mohan and Army G-4 LTG Hoyle.
VADM Wade is currently in limbo. His JTF Red Hill, having completed defueling of Hawaii's Red Hill facility, has now transferred responsibility to the Navy's Navy Closure Task Force - Red Hill, commanded by RADM Barnett.[1]
MajGen Heritage is still MARFORCYBER commander, while his to-be predecessor LtGen Glavy (presumably to retire) remains as Deputy Commandant for Information.[2] MajGen Matos remains as Heritage's deputy. Don't know what's delaying Heritage's promotion - setting an auspicious date for a change of command?
Maj Gen Pirak will be ANG's next director, with the accompanying appointment to Lt Gen. Could this mean that Lt Gen Loh is the presumptive nominee for NGB director? For VCNGB, I don't think that Lt Gen Sasseville is getting 4 stars, as the next VCNGB will be from the Army if Loh is elevated. Could be any of the sitting Army adjutant generals (except MG Daugherty of Washington state, who is retiring).
Oh wow, I didn't even notice this post (it appears I might've been tagged improperly). Shows how busy I've been as of late. We're overdue for another large batch of nominees and hopefully there will be some when I wake up in a few hours. Until then (and even if there's nothing), here's my thoughts on the above:
-I think LTG Mohan is the clear frontrunner to succeed GEN Hamilton. LTG Hoyle has only been in the 3-star rank for a few months and she'd possibly be the youngest 4-star ever (at least in Army history). She graduated from West Point in 1994. There are Colonels who were just confirmed to the rank of Brigadier General who graduated the same year (well not that many, but I know of at least one, BG (select) Jin Pak. The frontrunners to be DCG of US Army Materiel Command if LTG Mohan is elevated are MG Jered Helwig and MG David Wilson.
-VADM Wade has several possibilities for his next assignment. The three most likely (in no particular order) in my opinion are: 1) DCNO, N3/ N5; 2: Director, J5, Joint Staff; 3) Commander, US Third Fleet.
-No ideas as to what's delaying the promotion of MG Heritage.
Sasseville is probably the front-runner to be the next CNGB, which is probably one of the reasons why we haven't seen him get nominated for a fourth star, while serving as VCNGB. The other reason is probably because both he and GEN Hokanson are near the end of their terms. Unlike ADM Michel, who had only been in-office for a little over a year, and had about two more years left in his term as VCCG. Neovu79 (talk) 01:28, 6 April 2024 (UTC)
It wouldn't matter, since Sasseville only 61, with a SecDef waiver, he would be able to serve until 66 and could potentially serve a full four-year term as CNGB. While the standard requirement is three years in-grade, Sasseville would only need to serve two-years with the SecDef's approval, or the POTUS can waive the time-in-grade requirement altogether. Neovu79 (talk) 02:43, 9 April 2024 (UTC)
@Neovu79 and EPMen: At the moment, there are only two eligible three-star National Guardsmen with normal career paths (since Lt Gen Loh is also retiring) - LTG Jensen and LTG Carden, both of whom are Army. Jensen was Minnesota's AG, and Carden was Georgia's AG. At least one of them will be the new Vice Chief; I doubt they'll bring an Army person to succeed Hokanson. I think Carden has the edge here, as he was Georgia's AG during the George Floyd protests in Atlanta. His experience there may prove useful as the principal advisor to the service secretaries on federalised Guard forces, with the 2025 inauguration. A new NORTHCOM deputy is an easy order compared to a new ARNG director, which requires a change of command (though Jensen is due to rotate out soon). Alternatively, Carden becomes ARNG director while Jensen becomes VCNGB for his remaining three to four years of service before turning 64.
Assuming DOD doesn't deep-select from one of its current two-star officers, the only sitting ANG three-star, Lt Gen Caine would be an unusual choice for CNGB. Intelligence and special operations with a dearth of high-level Guard positions. He briefly served as a special assistant to Hokanson in 2021. It's not without precedent for a CIA military advisor to reach high levels - Gen Welsh, the 20th CSAF, is testament to this.
If DOD does deep-select for CNGB and/or VCNGB, the delay in Maj Gen Pirak's nomination for ANG director is intriguing. Perhaps they're rerouting him to another position? For Army, MG Edwards (recently left the Joint Staff), MG Wilz, MG Prendergast and AGs currently in their 4th or 5th year of duty (anyone below is too junior, anyone above is probably retiring within 2 years) are potential nominees. The possibilities two-star wise are mind-boggling. SuperWIKI (talk) 05:23, 31 May 2024 (UTC)
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Maybe they finally felt bad of the Navy, lol. The Air Force has less active-duty uniformed personnel than the Navy, but they have more four-star officers. But all jokes aside, it has to do with the growing threats in the Pacific from Russia, China, and North Korea. The Navy has spent years downsizing, during the Obama administration, that there are far less combat ready ships available than ever before. The Zumwalt-class destroyers and the Littoral combat ships are a complete failure and waste of taxpayer money, that the Navy has been scrambling to acquire more Arleigh Burke-class destroyers to meet global demands, and to fix the construction issues of the new Constellation-class frigates that caused the first ship to be delayed to 2029. Neovu79 (talk) 03:28, 24 July 2024 (UTC)
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@KingEdinburgh, EPMen, Garuda28, and SuperWIKI: I'm hesitant to add a dog to the List of United States Navy vice admirals from 2010 to 2019, given that the appointment was not made by the president, nor can I find any record that the Senate voted on the appointment, as required by U.S. law. I'm leaning towards that rank being honorary since the promotion/appointment document was issues and signed by the Surgeon General of the Navy. However, Laura Lee was a two-star in 2011 prior to her promotion to three-star in 2015. Any thoughts?
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-VADM Cooper would be only the second Navy admiral to command CENTCOM but during his time commanding Fifth Fleet, he spearheaded new unmanned innovations and the Navy had a major role in countering Houthi missile attacks.
-Lt. Gen. Grynkewich. There has never been an Air Force officer that commanded CENTCOM but given how much drone warfare occurs in the theater, I think we're overdue. I think Grynkewich is by far the most qualified in terms of the amount of experience he's had in the CENTCOM theater. However, Grynkewich is young enough (commissioned 1993) that he could conceivably hold a different 4-star role first (US Air Forces in Europe and Africa is a strong possibility) and still have another 4-star tour.
-GEN Poppas. If it were to go to another Army officer, I think Poppas is the most likely. I'd say Lt. Gen. Donahue is more likely for USSOCOM.
Williams is 63. Unless the new SecDef (maybe Mike Waltz) decides to extend him to 66, it's unlikely. Williams is also from central casting though – big frame, booming voice. SuperWIKI (talk) 03:55, 9 November 2024 (UTC)
You never know. I definitely think it could happen. And as for SOCOM, I'm 99.9% sure that it will be either LTG Donahue or VADM Bradley. Donahue was the last US soldier to leave Afghanistan while Bradley was one of the first to deploy after 9/11. I'll be making my full predictions for 2025 once the next (presumably final) batch of 3/4 star nominees for 2024 comes out.
I honestly have no idea who to expect for EUCOM Deputy but given the lack of Navy representation at EUCOM HQ, I'd throw in RADM Spedero. For the other two, I think we won't get nominees till 2025. EPMen (talk) 05:36, 9 November 2024 (UTC)
@EPMen yes Donahue is an unknown to me. He has backgrounds in special ops, as well as traditional infantry pipeline. He could fill: SOCOM, CENTCOM, FORSCOM, or AFC. I think we can rule out AMC. Neovu79 (talk) 06:00, 15 November 2024 (UTC)
If this is of any indication, GEN Kurilla seems to be sort of liked by the enlisted folks. However, he seems to have a history of being boorish and clumsy when under stress. Nothing to the level of beating people up or berating them mercilessly. I think he'll slip through just fine. In any case, his term is scheduled to end by next year, so it makes less of a difference if he's relieved. SuperWIKI (talk) 03:42, 20 November 2024 (UTC)
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