2022 East German Volkskammer Election

2021 West German Federal Election
All 591 seats in Bundestag; 296 seats needed for a majority
Chancellor before election; Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer; CDU	Elected Chancellor ; TBD;

2023 East German Chamber of States Election
All 60 seats in the Chamber of States; 31 seats needed for a majority
President of the Chamber of States before election; Lorenz Caffier; CDU	Elected President of the Chamber of States ; Lorenz Caffier; CDU

2022 East German Volkskammer Election
All 145 seats in the Volkskammer; 73 seats needed for a majority
Minister-President before election; Klara Geywitz; SPD	Elected Minister-President ; Reiner Haseloff; CDU

Page is based upon a poll of East Germans on September 26 2022. What if East Germany was its own country. Rules ca.

Leaders are the leader of the largest state party at their last elections. Leader of National Party if they are from East Germany

Background

In 2021 Dietmar Woidke led the SPD (Social Democratic Party) to victory forming a left-wing coalition between Social Democratic Party of Germany and Alliance 90/The Greens with the Party of Democratic Socialism as confidence and supply. After the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine it was discovered that Woidke held in excess of €100 thousand of undisclosed shares in Russian natural gas company Surgutneftegas, and was therefore forced to resign when the Greens triggered a no-confidence vote in the government. After Woidke's resignation Deputy Minister-President Klara Geywitz was appointed by president Michael Müller to lead the cabinet until new elections. At a special congress the SPD replaced Woidke as leader with Mecklenburg-Vorpommern premier Manuela Schwesig.

Electoral System

The 145 member of the Volkskammer are elected by open-list proportional representation. 100 seat are elected from constituencies based on the 6 states. The remaining 45 seats are then distributed to the parties based on their national performance to ensure a proportional result. To gain access to the 45 leveling seats a party must pass the 5% vote threshold or win at least one state level seat. Both state and national seats are distributed to the parties based on the Saint-Lague method.

The Campaign

The primary issue of the campaign where the rising cost of living for East German families and corruption within the SPD. With much focus being put on the price of natural gas to consumers. The majority of East German homes are reliant on natural gas for heating of homes, and the majority of that gas, before EU sanctions, came from Russia. After the revelations of Minister-President Woitke's Russian stock holdings, an independent investigation under the auspices of former Supreme Court Judge Monika Weisberg-Schwarz to investigate any potential corrupt links between high-level East German government officials and Russia. The appointment of Weisberg by the interim Minister-President Geywitz was rather controversial as Weisberg was originally appointed to the Supreme court by then SPD Berlin Mayor Klaus Wowereit. In response to the appointment AFD leader Chrupalla stated, "This appointment is another sign of SPD corruption and the elite protecting itself". In addition he promised that to replace Weisberg with a "truly independent" investigation if his party was to win the election.

The issue that dominated the campaign was as stated the issue of rising inflation with a focus on the rise in natural gas prices. To address the high prices the outgoing SPD government had already implemented energy subsidy vouchers for the poorest citizens. Manuela Schweisig stated that if elected her government would "Increase and enlarge the voucher program". Reiner Haseloff and the CDU proposed to "reengage stalled and shutdown coal mines and powerplants to insure East German energy independence". The Greens co-leader Wolfram Günther proposed to "use the current situation as a opportunity to complete the green energy transition". The BFD election manifesto called to "lower energy VAT and other tariffs to the lowest possible under EU law to ensure a competitive energy market". Lastly both AFD and PDS leaders called on the Government and European Union to relax oil and has sanctions on Russia. With Chrupulla stating, "The aggressive sanctions leveraged on the Russian Federation are both harming European peace and making our citizens poorer."

On the question of sanctions on Russian gas and oil both Schwesing and Haseloff stated their disagreement with Chrupalla. At a business council meeting in Dresden, where both leaders attended, Haseloff stated that, "harsh sanctions on Russia are an imperative in a achieving common European response to Russian aggression and ensuring the integrity of European energy markets". Schwesig stated she would "push for the harshest possible sanctions to ensure the victory of the Ukrainian people in their fight against Russian aggression".

Results

Capitalizing on rising energy prices and the Social Democratic governments scandals, the right-wing Alternative for Germany and the conservative CDU/CSU were able to become the largest parties in East Germany. This elections marked the first time that the AFD became the largest party in any German election at national or state level, gaining 10 seats. The CDU came second improving the 2021 election result by 13 seats.

The biggest losers in the election were the incumbent SPD. Despite being widely popular in her home state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Schwesig was not able to turn her party's fortunes around. The SPD ended up loosing 19 seats, nearly halving their representation in the Volkskammer. The Greens made moderate gains winning 5 more seats than in 2021, whereas The PDS and the BFD lost 5 and 4 seats respectively.

After the election AFD leader Tino Chrupalla called for the AFD and CDU/CSU to join together to form a "stable majority government for these unprecedented times". This would be the first time that AFD would join government at any national/state level in either Germanys. SPD Leader Schwesig and Greens leader Bettina Jarasch called for the CDU to reject the far-right and instead to join a Grand coalition (Germany) consisting of "reasonable and mainstream parties". BFD Leader Sebastian Czaja explicitly called for Reiner Haseloff to become Minister-President, adding that "The Free Democrats are always ready to take responsibility and govern". In his election night speech Dietmar Bartsch expressed his sadness that the former left of center government parties had "collapsed to less than 4/10 in the Volkskammer". He urged all parties to reject the AFD and hoped that "racists and extremists" would not be allowed into government.


Party		Votes	%	+/–	Seats	+/–
	Party of Democratic Socialism	745,987	8.00	-2.0	12	-5
	Social Democratic Party of Germany	1,398,726	15.00	-3.2	22	-19
	B’90/Grüne	1,305,478	14.00	+3.1	21	+5
	Association of Free Democrats	652,739	7.00	-2.9	11	–4
	Christian Democratic Union	2,424,459	26.00	+9.1	39	+13
	Alternative for Germany	2,517,707	27.00	+7.9	40	+10
	Others	279,745	3.00	na	0	0
Total		9,324,841	100.00	–	145	0

Source: Twitter Guy^[1]

Reactions

SPD leader Manuela Schwesig announced deep regret that East Germany became the third European country alongside Sweden and Italy where the far-right emerged as the victors in recent elections. She stressed that the she would fight to exclude AFD from any future government and whatever the result she would stay on as leader. Chancellor of Germany Armin Laschet expressed disappointment that his ""eastern brothers" had opted to vote so heavily for the hard-right". And added he hoped that the "center would hold against the forces of extremism. President of the European Comission Ursula von der Leyen expressed her hope towards a positive relationship with the next East German government, whatever the composition. Prime minister of Spain Pedro Sánchez announced he was sad to see collapse of the Social Democrats, however said that "whichever government forms I know that Eastern Germany will continue too be a strong partner for European cooperation, the results definitely express that". Tino Chrupalla was congratulated by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, hoping that Chrupalla would presure the EU to adopt a more "realistic, and citizens centric" view on Russian sanctions.

The Economist and Financial times noted that this was the first time a radical right party had achieved first place in a western European national election. With the Economist's Brussels bureau chief Stanley Pignal writing "The AFD's victory in the East German elections show cracks in European integration and challenge the Western alliance in Ukraine. Mainstream parties must address grievances and rebuild trust".

Government Formation and Aftermath

As leader of the largest party Tino Chrupalla was invited by President of East Germany Michael Müller to attempt to form a government. Chrupalla stated that he was "Glad to granted this opportunity to show that the AFD is ready to govern", Chrupalla also announced that he would be looking forward to engage in talks with all parties to find a governing majority. The SPD, Greens and FDP immediately rejected to partake in these talks, whereas the CDU and The PDS accepted the invitation. There was much surprise that The PDS accepted Chrupalla's invitation to join government talks. Commentators remarked that this was probably down to the two parties' pro-Russians stances^[2] Despite taking part in coalition talks CDU leader Hasselof expressed skepticism about governing with the AFD, stating "There are clear disagreements between us, however the German people have spoken, and it is the responsibility of the largest parties to take upon us the responsibility to govern".

Preliminary talks started between AFD, CDU and the PDS on October 23. The PDS left negotiations the evening of the same day, stating that "differences in economic policy were too large, despite the common priority too lower East Germans energy bills and ensure peace in Europe". Both AFD and CDU leaders announced that "steady progress" was being made. 3 days later at the Volkskammer's convening assembly AFD member Carsten Hütter was elected as the President of the Presidium of the Volkskammer, making him the speaker of the chamber and signaling the potential for an AFD-CDU coalition. 2 months later on December 27 leaders Tino Chrupulla and Reiner Hasseloff presented a government agreement to president Michael Müller making this government formation (3 months) the longest in East Germany history. After Meeting the President at Schönhausen Palace Chrupulla said in a following press conference " We are delighted to announce the formation of a coalition government alongside the CDU. This coalition represents a commitment to the aspirations and concerns of the people of East Germany. We have guaranteed that this government will follow a more realistic foreign policy and drive down prices for all families." With Hasseloff stating his partiy's priorities for the government, including "Political, economic, and social stability".

Despite being only the second largest party the CDU leader Hasseloff was selected to become Minister President, while Chrupalla was to become Finance Minister. Parties agree for an AFD Volkskammer President, finance minster, and Justice Minister, CDU Minister-President and Foreign minister.

^ "East Germany Polls". Europe Elections/Deutschland Wähly. 27 September 2022. Retrieved 27 September 2022.
^ Generic Liberal Newspaper

2023 East German Chamber of States Election

On the 2nd of August 2023 East German voters went to the polls to elect the 60 seats for the upper house of their legislature, the Chamber of states. This was the sixth sexennial election to the chamber since the transition to democracy.

Compared to the Volkskammer the Chamber of States is the less important chamber having fewer powers. The consent of the chamber is necessary to enact amend the constitution, approve international treaties, and enact legislation that relates to the relationship between the federal government and states or the relationship between the states.

Based on the newest polling at the time of writing. Mix of landtag and bundetag polling in each state and adjusted "national" east german polling. See excel spreadsheets for exact methods.

Background

After the 2022 Volkskammer election AFD and CDU formed a government coalition with Reiner Haseloff as Minister-President and Tino Chrupalla as his deputy.

After disappointing election results both the Party of Democratic Socialism (PDS) and the Association of Free Democrats (BFD) replaced their leaders. At their national congress PDS chose MEP Martin Schirdewan in a contested election against Volkskammer delegation leader Martina Renner. Thomas Kemmerich was initially selected by the BFD national board to serve until a permanent leader could be elected, but was in March elected permanently at the BFD's yearly conference. Despite their poor performance in the previous year's Volkskammer election SPD elected to keep Manuela Shwesig as leader.

Electoral System

The 60 members of the Chamber of States are elected by open list proportional representation with each state being assigned 10 seats. In each state there is a electoral threshold of 5%, and seats are distributed by the Saint-Lague method.

Results

The election was seen as a victory for the incumbent government, which increased their majority in the Chamber from 31 to 34. This came from AFD gaining 3 more seats and increasing their votes by 5.6%, and despite loosing 2.4% of the vote the CDU were able to hold on to all their seats and remain the largest party in the chamber. The SPD kept the same number of seats while slightly increasing their vote total by 0.7%. Despite being the joint largest seat winner in the election, +6, the Greens received 5% fewer votes compared to the previous year's Volkskammer elections.

The election's biggest losers where PDS and BFD. PDS lost half of their seats going from 12 to 6 and falling from 17.1% of the votes to 9.1%. PDS leader Martin Schirdewan stated that this seat descreas was "expected", and that the party gained votes compared to the last Volkskammer election. The liberal BFD continued their downward trend losing votes both compared to the last Chamber of States election and Volkskammer election. BFD were only able to pass the 5% threshold in 3 out of the 6 states. Like PDS the BFD's seats count was halved, going from 6 to 3.


Party		Votes	%	+/–	Seats	+/–
	Party of Democratic Socialism	846,056	9.07	-8.0	6	-6
	Social Democratic Party of Germany	1,412,253	15.15	+0.7	10	+0
	B’90/Grüne	838,379	8.99	+3.0	7	+6
	Association of Free Democrats	497,416	5.33	-2.5	3	–3
	Christian Democratic Union	2,388,011	25.61	-2.4	18	+0
	Alternative for Germany	2,383,171	25.56	+5.6	16	+3
	Others	959,556	10.29	n/a	0	n/a
Total		9,324,842	100.00	–	60	–

Source: Marks Magic Excel Skills

Aftemath

President of the Chamber Lorenz Caffier was reelected to his post while AFD politician Kristin Brinker was elected to replace Gesine Lötzsch (PDS) as vice-president.

List of Minister-Presidents of East Germany (1990 - present)

Had some fun version

#	Name	Took Office	Left Office	Time in Office	Party	Cabinet	Election	Previous Experience
1	Lothar de Maizière	April 1990	December 1990^[a]	8 Months	CDU	CDU-DSU-DA-BFD	1990	Deputy Chairman of the Council of Ministers Minister for Church Affairs
2	Peter-Michael Diestel	December 1990	July 1995^[b]	4 Years 7 Months	DSU	CDU-DSU-DA-BFD	(-)	Deputy Minister-President of East Germany
2	Peter-Michael Diestel	December 1990	July 1995^[b]	4 Years 7 Months	CDU	CDU-BFD-GRÜNE	1994	Deputy Minister-President of East Germany
3	Rupert Scholz	July 1995	October 1998	3 Years 3 Months	CDU	CDU-BFD-GRÜNE	(-)	Minister of Defence
4	Manfred Stolpe	October 1998	December 2003^[c]	5 Years 2 Months	SPD	SPD-GRÜNE	1998	Minister-President of Brandenburg
4	Manfred Stolpe	October 1998	December 2003^[c]	5 Years 2 Months	SPD	SPD-GRÜNE	2002	Minister-President of Brandenburg
5	Wolfgang Thierse	December 2003	November 2009	5 Years 11 Months	SPD	SPD-GRÜNE	(-)	President of the Presidium of the Volkskammer
5	Wolfgang Thierse	December 2003	November 2009	5 Years 11 Months	SPD	SPD-PDS	2005	President of the Presidium of the Volkskammer
6	Angela Merkel	November 2009	October 2021	11 Years 11 Months	CDU	CDU-SPD	2009	Minister for the Environment and Nuclear Safety
						CDU-GRÜNE	2013
						CDU-SPD-BFD	2017
7	Dietmar Woidke	October 2021	July 2022^[d]	10 Months	SPD	SPD-PDS-GRÜNE	2021	Minister-President of Brandenburg
8	Klara Geywitz	July 2022	December 2022	6 Months	SPD	SPD-PDS	(-)	Minister of the Interior, Security, and Community
9	Reiner Haseloff	December 2022	incumbent		CDU	CDU-AFD	2022	Minister-President of Saxony-Anhalt

No resignation version

Without stasi allegation resignations and other shenanigans


#	Name	Took Office	Left Office	Time in Office	Party	Cabinet	Election
1	Lothar de Maizière	April 1990	October 1998	8 Years 6 Months	CDU	CDU-DSU-DA-BFD	1990
1	Lothar de Maizière	April 1990	October 1998	8 Years 6 Months	CDU	CDU-BFD-GRÜNE	1994
2	Manfred Stolpe	October 1998	November 2009	11 Years 1 Month	SPD	SPD-GRÜNE	1998
						SPD-GRÜNE	2002
						SPD-PDS	2005
3	Angela Merkel	November 2009	October 2021	11 Years 11 Months	CDU	CDU-SPD	2009
						CDU-GRÜNE	2013
						CDU-SPD-BFD	2017
4	Dietmar Woidke	October 2021	Incumbent		SPD	SPD-PDS-GRÜNE	2021

List of Presidents of East Germany (1990 - present)


#	Name	Took Office	Left Office	Time in Office	Party	Election
1	Sabine Bergmann-Pohl	April 1990	April 2000	10 Years	CDU	1990
1	Sabine Bergmann-Pohl	April 1990	April 2000	10 Years	CDU	1995
2	Walter Momper	April 2000	April 2010	10 Years	SPD	2000
2	Walter Momper	April 2000	April 2010	10 Years	SPD	2005
3	Erich Iltgen	April 2010	June 2019^[e]	9 Years 2 Months	CDU	2010
3	Erich Iltgen	April 2010	June 2019^[e]	9 Years 2 Months	CDU	2015
4	Michael Müller	June 2019	Incumbent		SPD	2019

2021 West German General Election

Die Linke: 22 seats

SPD: 165 seats

B’90/Grüne: 102 seats

SSW: 1 seat

FDP: 77 seats

CDU/CSU: 171 seats

AfD: 53 seats


Party		Votes	%	+/–	Seats	+/–
	The Left (Germany)	0	0.00	-	22	-
	Social Democratic Party of Germany	0	0.00	-	165	-
	B’90/Grüne	0	0.00	-	102	-
	Free Democratic Party (Germany)	0	0.00	-	77	–
	CDU/CSU	0	0.00	-	171	-
	Alternative for Germany	0	0.00	-	53	-
	South Schleswig Voters' Association	55,578	100.00	-	1	-
	Others	0	0.00	na	0	0
Total		55,578	100.00	–	591	0

Source: Twitter Guy^[1]

^ Stasi Regnation
^ On 10 July, 1995, the Hanseatic Higher Regional Court in Hamburg ruled that Diestel was politically responsible for the destruction of files from the Ministry for State Security during his tenure as Interior Minister of the GDR
^ Resigned after allegations of Stasi collaboration were leveraged by the Federal Commissioner for the Stasi Records
^ Resigned after loosing a no-confidence vote. See: Gasgate (Top of article)
^ Died in office

^ "East Germany Polls". Europe Elections/Deutschland Wähly. 27 September 2022. Retrieved 27 September 2022.

[1] "East Germany Polls". Europe Elections/Deutschland Wähly. 27 September 2022. Retrieved 27 September 2022.

[2] Generic Liberal Newspaper

[3] Stasi Regnation

[4] On 10 July, 1995, the Hanseatic Higher Regional Court in Hamburg ruled that Diestel was politically responsible for the destruction of files from the Ministry for State Security during his tenure as Interior Minister of the GDR

[5] Resigned after allegations of Stasi collaboration were leveraged by the Federal Commissioner for the Stasi Records

[6] Resigned after loosing a no-confidence vote. See: Gasgate (Top of article)

[7] Died in office

[8] "East Germany Polls". Europe Elections/Deutschland Wähly. 27 September 2022. Retrieved 27 September 2022.

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