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2018 Georgia gubernatorial election

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2018 Georgia gubernatorial election
← 2014 November 6, 2018 2022 →
Turnout56.80% Increase 14.55pp
 
Nominee Brian Kemp Stacey Abrams
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 1,978,408 1,923,685
Percentage 50.22% 48.83%
Kemp:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Abrams:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Governor before election

Nathan Deal
Republican

Elected Governor

Brian Kemp
Republican

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The 2018 Georgia gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, concurrently with other statewide and local elections to elect the next governor of the U.S. state of Georgia. Republican Secretary of State Brian Kemp won the election, defeating Democratic former State Representative Stacey Abrams.

The primary elections were held on May 22, 2018, and a primary runoff was held on July 24, 2018, between Republican candidates Kemp and Lieutenant Governor Casey Cagle; Kemp prevailed. Incumbent Republican governor Nathan Deal was term-limited and thus could not seek a third consecutive term. Abrams won the Democratic primary with over 75% of the vote, allowing her to avoid a runoff. Kemp was the sitting Secretary of State at the time of the election. Kemp's position led to accusations of a conflict of interest, as Kemp oversaw the administration of an election in which he was the candidate.

On November 7, Kemp declared victory over Abrams. The following morning, Kemp resigned as Secretary of State.[1] On November 16, every county certified their votes with Kemp leading by roughly 55,000 votes.[2] Shortly after the election certification, Abrams suspended her campaign; she accepted Kemp as the legal winner of the election while refusing to say that the election was legitimate.[3][4] Abrams has since claimed numerous[5] instances of election activity that allegedly unfairly affected the results. Following the election, Abrams and her organization Fair Fight filed a number of lawsuits challenging the constitutionality and Voting Rights Act compliance of Georgia's voting laws.[6]

Kemp prevailed by 54,723 votes, defeating Abrams 50.2–48.8%. Georgia's 2018 gubernatorial election was its closest governor's race since 1966.[7] Kemp was re-elected governor in 2022 in a rematch with Abrams.

Republican primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominated

[edit]

Eliminated in the runoff

[edit]

Eliminated in the primary

[edit]

Withdrew

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Casey Cagle

Governors

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

State senators

State representatives

Individuals

Organizations

Hunter Hill

U.S. senators

State representatives

U.S. representatives

Clay Tippins

State representatives

Michael Williams

Individuals

First round

[edit]

Polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Casey
Cagle 		Hunter
Hill 		Brian
Kemp 		Clay
Tippins 		Michael
Williams 		Other Undecided
Opinion Savvy[45] May 15–16, 2018 515 ± 4.3% 31% 14% 20% 12% 5% 4% 15%
SurveyUSA[46] May 10–15, 2018 558 ± 5.1% 35% 10% 17% 8% 3% – 27%
University of Georgia[47] April 19–26, 2018 507 ± 4.4% 41% 9% 10% 4% 3% 1%[48] 33%
Meeting Street Research (R-Citizens for Georgia's Future)[49] March 1 and 3–4, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 38% 10% 10% 3% 2% 3%[50] 35%
Clarion Research (R-Hill)[51] March 2–3, 2018 547 ± 4.5% 48% 21% 15% 8% 7% – –
Mason-Dixon[52] February 20–23, 2018 500 ± 4.5% 27% 11% 13% 12% 5% 1%[53] 31%
Meeting Street Research (R-Citizens for Georgia's Future)[49] February 6–7, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 31% 7% 12% 5% 2% 3% 40%
The Wickers Group (R-Kemp)[54] October 21–24, 2017 400 ± 4.5% 34% 1% 13% 0% 1% – 48%
Landmark/Rosetta Stone[55] October 16–17, 2017 800 ± 3.5% 35% 9% 7% 1% 4% – 44%
McLaughlin & Associates (R-Cagle)[56] September 28 – October 1, 2017 600 ± 4.0% 41% 4% 12% 2% 3% – 39%

Results

[edit]
Initial primary results by county:
  Cagle—50–60%
  Cagle—40–50%
  Cagle—<40%
  Kemp—<40%
  Kemp—40–50%
  Kemp—50–60%
  Hill—<40%
  Tie
Republican primary results[57][58]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Casey Cagle 236,987 38.95
Republican Brian Kemp 155,189 25.51
Republican Hunter Hill 111,464 18.32
Republican Clay Tippins 74,182 12.19
Republican Michael Williams 29,619 4.87
Republican Eddie Hayes 939 0.15
Total votes 608,380 100

Runoff

[edit]

Casey Cagle and Brian Kemp advanced to a runoff on July 24, 2018, since neither candidate amassed over 50% of the vote in the May 22 primary.[59] On July 18, 2018, President Trump tweeted his support for Kemp, and Vice President Pence traveled to Georgia to campaign with him on July 20, 2018.[60]

Polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Casey
Cagle 		Brian
Kemp 		Undecided
Trafalgar Group (R)[61] July 21–22, 2018 1,177 ± 2.7% 41% 59% 0%
SurveyUSA[62] July 15–19, 2018 688 ± 4.7% 34% 40% 26%
Opinion Savvy[63] July 17–18, 2018 466 ± 4.5% 37% 55% 8%
University of Georgia[64] July 5–12, 2018 769 ± 3.5% 41% 44% 15%
Public Opinion Strategies (R-Kemp)[65] June 26–28, 2018 500 ± 4.0% 45% 45% –
Cygnal[66] June 26–27, 2018 812 ± 3.4% 44% 43% 14%
Rosetta Stone[67] June 7, 2018 400 ± 4.9% 48% 41% 12%
McLaughlin & Associates (R-Cagle)[68] May 29–31, 2018 500 ± 4.5% 52% 42% 5%
Public Opinion Strategies (R-Kemp)[69] May 29–31, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 46% 45% 9%

Debates

[edit]
Dates Location Kemp Cagle Link
July 6, 2018 Augusta, Georgia Participant Participant Full debate: Video on YouTube

Results

[edit]

Brian Kemp easily won the runoff by nearly 40 points despite the latest polls having him up by no more than 18. Cagle won only two counties, Monroe and Stephens.[70]

Runoff results by county:
  Kemp—80–90%
  Kemp—70–80%
  Kemp—60–70%
  Kemp—50–60%
  Cagle—50–60%
  Cagle—60–70%
Republican primary runoff results[71]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Brian Kemp 408,595 69.45
Republican Casey Cagle 179,712 30.55
Total votes 588,307 100.0

Democratic primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominated

[edit]

Eliminated in the primary

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Stacey Abrams

Federal politicians

Statewide and local politicians

Individuals

Labor unions

Organizations

Websites and newspapers

Stacey Evans

Federal politicians

Statewide politicians

State legislators

Local politicians

Polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Stacey
Abrams 		Stacey
Evans 		Undecided
Opinion Savvy[45] May 15–16, 2018 522 ± 4.3% 58% 19% 23%
SurveyUSA[46] May 10–15, 2018 475 ± 6.2% 43% 24% 33%
20/20 Insight (D-Evans)[128] May 9–15, 2018 433 ± 5.4% 42% 34% 25%
University of Georgia[129] April 12–18, 2018 473 ± 4.5% 33% 15% 52%
Mason-Dixon[52] February 20–23, 2018 500 ± 4.5% 29% 17% 54%

Results

[edit]
Primary results by county:
  Abrams—80–90%
  Abrams—70–80%
  Abrams—60–70%
  Abrams—50–60%
  Evans—50–60%
  Evans—60–70%
Democratic primary results[130]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Stacey Abrams 424,305 76.44
Democratic Stacey Evans 130,784 23.56
Total votes 555,089 100.0

Libertarian primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

Withdrew

[edit]

General election

[edit]

If no candidate had gained a simple majority of the votes in the general election, a runoff election between the top two candidates would have been held on December 4, 2018.[134]

Debates

[edit]
Dates Location Kemp Abrams Metz Link
October 23, 2018 Atlanta, Georgia Participant Participant Participant Full debate - C-SPAN
  • A second debate was scheduled for November 4, 2018 (2 days before Election Day), but it was canceled when Kemp pulled out of the schedule in order to attend a rally for President Donald Trump. The Kemp campaign sent multiple other dates but the Abrams campaign declined due to a full schedule.[135]

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[136] Tossup October 26, 2018
The Washington Post[137] Tossup November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[138] Lean R November 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report[139] Tilt R November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[140] Tossup November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[141] Tossup November 4, 2018
Daily Kos[142] Tossup November 5, 2018
Fox News[143][a] Tossup November 5, 2018
Politico[144] Tossup November 5, 2018
Governing[145] Tossup November 5, 2018
Notes
  1. ^ The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races.

Endorsements

[edit]
Stacey Abrams (D)

Former U.S. Executive Branch officials

Federal politicians

Statewide and local politicians

Individuals

Labor unions

Organizations

Websites and newspapers

Brian Kemp (R)

U.S. executive branch officials

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

State politicians

Organizations

Individuals

Newspapers

Polling

[edit]

Graphical summary

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Brian
Kemp (R) 		Stacey
Abrams (D) 		Ted
Metz (L) 		Other Undecided
The Trafalgar Group (R)[245] October 30 – November 3, 2018 2,171 ± 2.1% 52% 40% – 4% 4%
20/20 Insight (D-Southern Majority)[246] October 31 – November 2, 2018 614 ± 4.0% 46% 50% 1% – 3%
Emerson College[247] October 29–31, 2018 724 ± 3.7% 49% 47% 1% – 2%
Cygnal (R)[248] October 27–30, 2018 504 ± 4.4% 49% 47% 4% – 0%
University of Georgia[249] October 21–30, 2018 1,091 ± 3.0% 47% 47% 2% – 5%
Opinion Savvy[250] October 28–29, 2018 623 ± 3.9% 47% 48% 2% – 3%
Opinion Savvy[251] October 21–22, 2018 824 ± 3.4% 48% 48% 1% – 3%
Marist College[252] October 14–18, 2018 554 LV ± 4.8% 46% 45% 4% <1% 4%
49% 47% – 1% 4%
864 RV ± 3.8% 44% 46% 4% <1% 6%
47% 47% – 1% 5%
Ipsos[253] October 4–11, 2018 1,088 ± 3.4% 47% 46% 2% 1% 4%
University of Georgia[254] September 30 – October 9, 2018 1,232 ± 2.8% 48% 46% 2% – 4%
SurveyUSA[255] October 3–8, 2018 655 ± 4.9% 47% 45% – 2% 6%
Public Policy Polling (D-Georgia Engaged)[256] October 5–6, 2018 729 ± 3.0% 46% 46% – – 7%
Landmark Communications[257] October 1, 2018 964 ± 3.2% 48% 46% 2% – 3%
SurveyMonkey[258] September 9–24, 2018 1,955 ± 3.0% 43% 43% – – 14%
Garin-Hart-Yang (D-Abrams)[259] September 17–20, 2018 603 ± 4.1% 42% 48% 3% – 7%
University of Georgia[260] August 26 – September 4, 2018 1,020 ± 3.1% 45% 45% 2% – 8%
Gravis Marketing[261] July 27–29, 2018 650 ± 3.8% 44% 46% – – 10%
SurveyUSA[262] July 15–19, 2018 1,199 ± 4.3% 46% 44% – – 10%
Garin-Hart-Yang (D-Abrams)[263] May 23–25, 2018 601 ± 4.0% 40% 49% – – –
Mason-Dixon[52] February 20–23, 2018 625 ± 4.0% 37% 40% – – 23%
Hypothetical polling

with Casey Cagle

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Casey
Cagle (R) 		Stacey
Abrams (D) 		Undecided
SurveyUSA[262] July 15–19, 2018 1,199 ± 4.3% 45% 43% 12%
Garin-Hart-Yang (D-Abrams)[263] May 23–25, 2018 601 ± 4.0% 43% 48% –
SurveyUSA[46] May 10–15, 2018 2,339 ± 3.5% 46% 41% 14%
Mason-Dixon[52] February 20–23, 2018 625 ± 4.0% 45% 39% 16%

with Clay Tippins

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Clay
Tippins (R) 		Stacey
Abrams (D) 		Undecided
Mason-Dixon[52] February 20–23, 2018 625 ± 4.0% 40% 41% 19%

with Hunter Hill

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Hunter
Hill (R) 		Stacey
Abrams (D) 		Undecided
Mason-Dixon[52] February 20–23, 2018 625 ± 4.0% 37% 43% 20%

with Stacey Evans

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Casey
Cagle (R) 		Stacey
Evans (D) 		Undecided
SurveyUSA[46] May 10–15, 2018 2,339 ± 3.5% 45% 41% 13%
Mason-Dixon[52] February 20–23, 2018 625 ± 4.0% 47% 38% 15%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Brian
Kemp (R) 		Stacey
Evans (D) 		Undecided
Mason-Dixon[52] February 20–23, 2018 625 ± 4.0% 42% 39% 19%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Clay
Tippins (R) 		Stacey
Evans (D) 		Undecided
Mason-Dixon[52] February 20–23, 2018 625 ± 4.0% 41% 38% 21%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Hunter
Hill (R) 		Stacey
Evans (D) 		Undecided
Mason-Dixon[52] February 20–23, 2018 625 ± 4.0% 35% 36% 29%

with Casey Cagle

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Casey
Cagle (R) 		Jason
Carter (D) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[264] May 27–30, 2016 724 ± 3.6% 40% 39% 21%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Casey
Cagle (R) 		Kasim
Reed (D) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[264] May 27–30, 2016 724 ± 3.6% 46% 33% 21%

with Brian Kemp

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Brian
Kemp (R) 		Jason
Carter (D) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[264] May 27–30, 2016 724 ± 3.6% 38% 40% 22%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Brian
Kemp (R) 		Kasim
Reed (D) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[264] May 27–30, 2016 724 ± 3.6% 43% 33% 24%

Results

[edit]
2018 Georgia gubernatorial election[265]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Brian Kemp 1,978,408 50.22% −2.52%
Democratic Stacey Abrams 1,923,685 48.83% +3.95%
Libertarian Ted Metz 37,235 0.95% −1.41%
Write-in 81 0.00% -0.02%
Total votes 3,939,409 100.00% N/A
Republican hold

By county

[edit]

All results from the office of the Secretary of State of Georgia.[266]

County Brian Kemp
Republican		 Stacey Abrams
Democratic		 Ted Metz
Libertarian		 Total
votes
% # % # % #
Appling 79.72% 5,428 19.94% 1,358 0.34% 23 6,809
Atkinson 74.39% 1,876 25.26% 637 0.36% 9 2,522
Bacon 86.71% 3,321 12.77% 489 0.52% 20 3,830
Baker 58.24% 753 41.38% 535 0.39% 5 1,293
Baldwin 49.47% 7,735 49.84% 7,793 0.69% 108 15,636
Banks 89.75% 6,150 9.41% 645 0.83% 57 6,852
Barrow 73.57% 20,162 25.18% 6,900 1.25% 343 27,405
Bartow 76.09% 28,425 22.82% 8,524 1.10% 410 37,359
Ben Hill 63.80% 3,539 35.75% 1,983 0.45% 25 5,547
Berrien 85.00% 5,314 14.40% 900 0.61% 38 6,252
Bibb 38.27% 23,225 61.07% 37,066 0.66% 401 60,692
Bleckley 78.52% 3,816 20.62% 1,002 0.86% 42 4,860
Brantley 91.29% 5,198 8.10% 461 0.61% 35 5,694
Brooks 61.36% 3,511 38.24% 2,188 0.40% 23 5,722
Bryan 70.12% 10,507 28.78% 4,313 1.10% 165 14,985
Bulloch 62.69% 14,848 36.44% 8,630 0.87% 205 23,683
Burke 50.57% 4,410 48.95% 4,269 0.48% 42 8,721
Butts 71.74% 6,358 27.65% 2,451 0.61% 54 8,863
Calhoun 42.65% 810 57.08% 1,084 0.26% 5 1,899
Camden 65.29% 11,139 33.57% 5,727 1.14% 195 17,061
Candler 72.34% 2,560 27.21% 963 0.45% 16 3,539
Carroll 69.79% 29,204 29.11% 12,180 1.10% 459 41,843
Catoosa 79.47% 18,881 19.32% 4,590 1.21% 287 23,758
Charlton 75.08% 2,534 24.36% 822 0.56% 19 3,375
Chatham 40.01% 41,425 58.97% 61,059 1.02% 1,059 103,543
Chattahoochee 54.57% 603 44.71% 494 0.72% 8 1,105
Chattooga 79.85% 5,936 19.44% 1,445 0.71% 53 7,434
Cherokee 72.08% 76,700 26.36% 28,047 1.56% 1,664 106,411
Clarke 28.56% 12,365 70.27% 30,427 1.18% 510 43,402
Clay 45.19% 536 54.13% 642 0.67% 8 1,186
Clayton 11.79% 10,868 87.81% 80,971 0.40% 373 92,212
Clinch 76.04% 1,717 23.65% 534 0.31% 7 2,258
Cobb 44.53% 138,852 54.12% 168,767 1.35% 4,195 311,814
Coffee 70.78% 8,929 28.78% 3,630 0.44% 56 12,615
Colquitt 75.83% 9,830 23.56% 3,054 0.61% 79 12,963
Columbia 66.44% 40,947 32.49% 20,023 1.08% 664 61,634
Cook 70.93% 4,116 28.73% 1,667 0.34% 20 5,803
Coweta 69.69% 40,471 29.12% 16,908 1.19% 692 58,071
Crawford 72.86% 3,595 26.39% 1,302 0.75% 37 4,934
Crisp 63.05% 4,445 36.55% 2,577 0.40% 28 7,050
Dade 82.53% 4,508 16.18% 884 1.28% 70 5,462
Dawson 85.94% 9,953 13.12% 1,519 0.94% 109 11,581
Decatur 60.05% 5,492 39.53% 3,615 0.43% 39 9,146
DeKalb 15.64% 48,923 83.47% 261,042 0.89% 2,776 312,741
Dodge 73.93% 5,220 25.73% 1,817 0.34% 24 7,061
Dooly 52.73% 2,001 46.96% 1,782 0.32% 12 3,795
Dougherty 29.69% 9,330 69.94% 21,980 0.37% 115 31,425
Douglas 39.35% 21,744 59.82% 33,053 0.83% 458 55,255
Early 55.26% 2,285 44.50% 1,840 0.24% 10 4,135
Echols 88.19% 1,008 11.02% 126 0.79% 9 1,143
Effingham 76.89% 17,969 22.01% 5,145 1.10% 257 23,371
Elbert 69.73% 5,152 29.70% 2,194 0.57% 42 7,388
Emanuel 69.98% 5,400 29.52% 2,278 0.49% 38 7,716
Evans 69.39% 2,392 30.17% 1,040 0.44% 15 3,447
Fannin 82.96% 9,306 16.13% 1,809 0.92% 103 11,218
Fayette 56.03% 32,497 42.75% 24,796 1.22% 705 57,998
Floyd 71.10% 21,569 27.84% 8,445 1.07% 324 30,338
Forsyth 70.57% 65,845 27.97% 26,092 1.46% 1,361 93,298
Franklin 86.54% 7,051 12.71% 1,036 0.75% 61 8,148
Fulton 26.66% 112,991 72.34% 306,589 0.99% 4,208 423,788
Gilmer 83.70% 10,471 15.32% 1,917 0.98% 122 12,510
Glascock 91.39% 1,189 8.22% 107 0.38% 5 1,301
Glynn 63.54% 20,743 35.64% 11,636 0.82% 269 32,648
Gordon 81.93% 14,586 17.11% 3,046 0.97% 172 17,804
Grady 67.30% 5,633 32.31% 2,704 0.39% 33 8,370
Greene 65.10% 5,856 34.39% 3,093 0.51% 46 8,995
Gwinnett 42.23% 132,998 56.55% 178,097 1.21% 3,823 314,918
Habersham 83.51% 12,944 15.59% 2,417 0.90% 139 15,500
Hall 73.35% 49,442 25.50% 17,187 1.15% 777 67,406
Hancock 24.58% 872 75.14% 2,666 0.28% 10 3,548
Haralson 87.65% 9,278 11.52% 1,219 0.83% 88 10,585
Harris 74.03% 11,834 25.15% 4,021 0.82% 131 15,986
Hart 76.60% 7,370 22.64% 2,178 0.77% 74 9,622
Heard 83.21% 3,374 16.13% 654 0.67% 27 4,055
Henry 41.97% 41,364 57.31% 56,485 0.72% 709 98,558
Houston 57.93% 34,314 41.12% 24,358 0.95% 560 59,232
Irwin 75.83% 2,701 23.89% 851 0.28% 10 3,562
Jackson 81.60% 21,950 17.38% 4,674 1.02% 275 26,899
Jasper 74.52% 4,430 24.96% 1,484 0.52% 31 5,945
Jeff Davis 82.64% 3,979 16.91% 814 0.46% 22 4,815
Jefferson 46.95% 3,177 52.67% 3,564 0.38% 26 6,767
Jenkins 64.66% 1,857 34.96% 1,004 0.38% 11 2,872
Johnson 72.47% 2,524 27.22% 948 0.32% 11 3,483
Jones 67.82% 8,438 31.65% 3,938 0.52% 65 12,441
Lamar 69.39% 5,105 29.84% 2,195 0.77% 57 7,357
Lanier 71.24% 1,910 28.42% 762 0.34% 9 2,681
Laurens 65.87% 12,484 33.64% 6,375 0.49% 93 18,952
Lee 74.66% 10,120 24.76% 3,356 0.58% 79 13,555
Liberty 36.16% 5,557 63.09% 9,696 0.75% 115 15,368
Lincoln 69.44% 2,756 29.93% 1,188 0.63% 25 3,969
Long 64.81% 2,591 34.29% 1,371 0.90% 36 3,998
Lowndes 57.30% 20,488 42.02% 15,024 0.67% 241 35,753
Lumpkin 79.23% 9,157 19.28% 2,228 1.50% 173 11,558
Macon 36.90% 1,556 62.89% 2,652 0.21% 9 4,217
Madison 78.48% 9,181 20.67% 2,418 0.85% 100 11,699
Marion 63.87% 1,872 35.38% 1,037 0.75% 22 2,931
McDuffie 60.54% 5,323 38.98% 3,427 0.48% 42 8,792
McIntosh 59.50% 3,218 39.96% 2,161 0.54% 29 5,408
Meriwether 58.88% 5,093 40.47% 3,501 0.65% 56 8,650
Miller 77.88% 1,803 21.68% 502 0.43% 10 2,315
Mitchell 56.16% 4,187 43.53% 3,245 0.31% 23 7,455
Monroe 71.94% 9,308 27.18% 3,516 0.88% 114 12,938
Montgomery 76.13% 2,686 23.27% 821 0.60% 21 3,528
Morgan 71.22% 6,807 27.99% 2,675 0.80% 76 9,558
Murray 85.76% 9,512 13.43% 1,489 0.81% 90 11,091
Muscogee 38.48% 24,348 60.79% 38,462 0.73% 462 63,272
Newton 45.08% 19,449 54.27% 23,412 0.65% 280 43,141
Oconee 69.80% 14,480 29.00% 6,015 1.20% 249 20,744
Oglethorpe 70.44% 4,568 28.48% 1,847 1.08% 70 6,485
Paulding 66.53% 40,784 32.56% 19,959 0.92% 562 61,305
Peach 52.01% 5,432 47.54% 4,966 0.45% 47 10,445
Pickens 84.80% 11,331 14.23% 1,901 0.97% 130 13,362
Pierce 88.95% 6,123 10.72% 738 0.33% 23 6,884
Pike 85.71% 7,322 13.63% 1,164 0.67% 57 8,543
Polk 79.13% 10,177 20.12% 2,588 0.75% 96 12,861
Pulaski 69.77% 2,527 29.79% 1,079 0.44% 16 3,622
Putnam 71.82% 6,704 27.63% 2,579 0.56% 52 9,335
Quitman 55.53% 522 43.62% 410 0.85% 8 940
Rabun 80.01% 6,063 18.84% 1,428 1.15% 87 7,578
Randolph 45.07% 1,257 54.43% 1,518 0.50% 14 2,789
Richmond 31.47% 22,076 67.75% 47,531 0.78% 548 70,155
Rockdale 31.93% 11,703 67.45% 24,725 0.62% 227 36,655
Schley 80.96% 1,565 18.26% 353 0.78% 15 1,933
Screven 60.36% 3,268 39.36% 2,131 0.28% 15 5,414
Seminole 66.59% 2,149 32.88% 1,061 0.53% 17 3,227
Spalding 61.17% 14,937 37.92% 9,258 0.91% 222 24,417
Stephens 80.62% 7,326 18.62% 1,692 0.76% 69 9,087
Stewart 41.78% 760 57.89% 1,053 0.33% 6 1,819
Sumter 48.78% 5,149 50.78% 5,360 0.45% 47 10,556
Talbot 39.51% 1,167 59.75% 1,765 0.74% 22 2,954
Taliaferro 38.00% 350 61.67% 568 0.33% 3 921
Tattnall 76.32% 5,073 23.12% 1,537 0.56% 37 6,647
Taylor 62.81% 2,069 36.58% 1,205 0.61% 20 3,294
Telfair 66.77% 2,425 32.79% 1,191 0.44% 16 3,632
Terrell 45.70% 1,800 53.95% 2,125 0.36% 14 3,939
Thomas 61.22% 10,557 38.29% 6,602 0.49% 85 17,244
Tift 69.65% 9,523 29.77% 4,070 0.59% 80 13,673
Toombs 74.75% 6,623 24.84% 2,201 0.41% 36 8,860
Towns 81.69% 5,009 17.37% 1,065 0.95% 58 6,132
Treutlen 68.86% 1,800 30.83% 806 0.31% 8 2,614
Troup 60.77% 14,533 38.55% 9,218 0.68% 162 23,913
Turner 62.98% 2,062 36.65% 1,200 0.37% 12 3,274
Twiggs 52.72% 1,999 46.84% 1,776 0.45% 17 3,792
Union 83.43% 9,899 15.61% 1,852 0.96% 114 11,865
Upson 66.83% 7,063 32.58% 3,443 0.59% 62 10,568
Walker 80.97% 17,400 17.86% 3,838 1.17% 252 21,490
Walton 76.88% 29,742 22.43% 8,679 0.69% 265 38,686
Ware 71.66% 7,894 27.84% 3,067 0.50% 55 11,016
Warren 46.57% 1,053 53.07% 1,200 0.35% 8 2,261
Washington 50.53% 4,128 49.11% 4,012 0.36% 29 8,169
Wayne 80.15% 8,120 19.15% 1,940 0.70% 71 10,131
Webster 59.91% 659 40.00% 440 0.09% 1 1,100
Wheeler 71.05% 1,372 28.74% 555 0.21% 4 1,931
White 84.51% 9,667 14.40% 1,647 1.09% 125 11,439
Whitfield 72.30% 19,758 26.80% 7,323 0.90% 246 27,327
Wilcox 73.32% 2,064 26.47% 745 0.21% 6 2,815
Wilkes 58.90% 2,578 40.53% 1,774 0.57% 25 4,377
Wilkinson 55.64% 2,373 44.01% 1,877 0.35% 15 4,265
Worth 75.39% 5,915 24.14% 1,894 0.47% 37 7,846

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

[edit]

Kemp won eight of 14 congressional districts. Abrams won the other six, including one that elected a Republican.[267]

District Kemp Abrams Representative
1st 56.49% 42.61% Buddy Carter
2nd 43.62% 55.89% Sanford Bishop
3rd 64.21% 34.8% Drew Ferguson
4th 20.05% 79.28% Hank Johnson
5th 11.31% 87.89% John Lewis
6th 47.51% 50.97% Lucy McBath
7th 48.64% 50.03% Rob Woodall
8th 64.11% 35.22% Austin Scott
9th 78.82% 20.13% Doug Collins
10th 61.39% 37.74% Jody Hice
11th 59.33% 39.27% Barry Loudermilk
12th 57.69% 41.58% Rick W. Allen
13th 23.28% 75.99% David Scott
14th 75.38% 23.65% Tom Graves

Voter demographics

[edit]
Edison Research exit poll
Demographic subgroup Abrams Kemp No
Answer 		% of
Voters
Gender
Men 46 52 2 46
Women 51 49 N/A 54
Age
18–24 years old 60 38 2 9
25–29 years old 72 26 2 5
30–39 years old 61 38 1 15
40–49 years old 49 50 1 19
50–64 years old 41 58 1 29
65 and older 40 60 N/A 22
Race
White 25 74 1 60
Black 93 6 1 30
Latino 62 37 1 5
Asian N/A N/A N/A 2
Other N/A N/A N/A 3
Race by gender
White men 25 73 2 28
White women 25 75 N/A 32
Black men 88 11 1 14
Black women 97 2 1 16
Latino men N/A N/A N/A 2
Latina women N/A N/A N/A 3
Others 54 44 2 5
Education
High school or less 38 61 1 30
Some college education 50 48 2 25
Associate degree 51 48 1 12
Bachelor's degree 54 45 1 21
Advanced degree 60 39 1 12
Education and race
White college graduates 40 59 1 22
White no college degree 17 82 1 39
Non-white college graduates 85 14 1 12
Non-white no college degree 84 15 1 28
Whites by education and gender
White women with college degrees 43 57 N/A 11
White women without college degrees 16 83 1 21
White men with college degrees 38 61 1 11
White men without college degrees 17 81 2 17
Non-whites 84 15 1 40
Income
Under $30,000 65 34 1 20
$30,000–49,999 38 60 2 20
$50,000–99,999 43 57 N/A 35
$100,000–199,999 41 58 1 18
Over $200,000 N/A N/A N/A 7
Party ID
Democrats 97 2 1 33
Republicans 3 97 N/A 38
Independents 54 44 2 28
Party by gender
Democratic men 96 3 1 12
Democratic women 98 2 n/a 21
Republican men 3 97 N/A 17
Republican women 3 97 N/A 21
Independent men 55 42 3 17
Independent women 53 45 2 12
Ideology
Liberals 88 11 1 20
Moderates 63 36 1 38
Conservatives 16 83 1 42
Marital status
Married 33 66 1 55
Unmarried 63 36 1 45
Gender by marital status
Married men 29 68 3 25
Married women 34 65 1 30
Unmarried men 58 41 1 21
Unmarried women 69 31 N/A 24
First-time midterm election voter
Yes 53 46 1 18
No 48 50 2 82
Most important issue facing the country
Health care 79 20 1 34
Immigration 9 90 1 32
Economy 43 57 N/A 23
Gun policy N/A N/A N/A 9
Area type
Urban 70 29 1 22
Suburban 43 56 1 63
Rural 42 58 N/A 15
Source: CNN[268]

Electoral controversies

[edit]

Kemp retained his office as Georgia Secretary of State throughout the campaign, leading to allegations of a conflict of interest for overseeing an election in which he himself was a candidate. During the campaign, he was called upon by former president and former governor of Georgia Jimmy Carter[269] and the Georgia chapters of the NAACP and Common Cause to resign from the secretariat position. Kemp refused to do so[270] until after he claimed victory, two days following the election. Kemp also accused the state Democratic Party of hacking into the state's voter database a few days before the election; however, an email released shortly after the accusation was made showed the party warning election security experts, highlighting "massive" vulnerabilities within the state's My Voter Page and its online voter registration system, not an attempt to hack the database, as Kemp had claimed.[271]

Irregularities in voter registration occurred prior to the election. Between 2012 and 2018, Kemp's office canceled over 1.4 million voter registrations, with nearly 700,000 cancellations in 2017 alone.[272] Over 300,000 people were removed from the rolls on the grounds that they had moved to a new address when they actually had not.[273] On a single night in July 2017, half a million voters had their registrations canceled. According to The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, election-law experts said that this "may represent the largest mass disenfranchisement in US history."[274] The registrations of 53,000 voters, disproportionately affecting black people, were delayed by Kemp's office for not exactly matching state driver records. After a lawsuit was filed, Kemp agreed to allow flagged voters to vote if they had identification.[275] These irregularities resulted in allegations that Kemp was using voter suppression to increase his chances of winning the contest.[275] Georgia election officials responded to these allegations by stating that any voter flagged for irregularities could still vote, receiving a regular ballot (not a provisional ballot), by providing ID at a valid polling place, as is required of all voters by state law.[276] Concerning the question of why the pending registration status mattered if those voters could vote normally at the polls, critics claimed that learning of this status might discourage those voters from turning out to the polls at all.[277]

The Washington Post reported that "more than 200 polling places" across Georgia were closed in the 2018 election, "primarily in poor and minority neighborhoods. Voters reported long lines, malfunctioning voting machines and other problems that delayed or thwarted voting in those areas."[278] (The Atlanta Journal-Constitution found that "precinct closures and longer distances likely prevented an estimated 54,000 to 85,000 voters from casting ballots" on the 2018 Election Day.)[279] According to Richard L. Hasen, professor of law and political science at the University of California at Irvine, "there is no question that Georgia in general and Brian Kemp in particular took steps to make it harder for people to register and vote, and that those people tended to skew Democratic."[280]

On November 12, 2018, U.S. District Court Judge Amy Totenberg ruled that Georgia's secretary of state office must take steps to preserve provisional ballots and begin counting them.[281][282][283] On November 13, 2018, U.S. District Court Judge Leigh Martin May ruled that Gwinnett County violated the Civil Rights Act in rejecting absentee ballots with missing or incorrect specified year of birth of the absentee voter.[281]

On November 16, 2018, Abrams announced that she was ending her campaign. Abrams acknowledged that Kemp would be certified as victor, while emphasizing that her statement was not a concession, saying "I acknowledge that Secretary of State Brian Kemp will be certified as the victor of the 2018 gubernatorial election. [...] But let’s be clear, this is not a speech of concession because concession means to acknowledge an action is right, true or proper."[7][284][285][286][287] Abrams announced the creation of Fair Fight Action, a voting rights nonprofit organization that sued the secretary of state and state election board in federal court for voter suppression.[288] In February 2021, a federal judge ruled that Fair Fight's claims about voting machines, voter list security, and polling place issues were resolved by changes in Georgia's election law, or invalidated due to lack of standing to sue.[289][290] In April 2021, a judge allowed some claims in the legal challenge to proceed while rejecting others.[291] On September 30, 2022, a federal judge ruled against Fair Fight on the remaining claims, finding that Georgia's voting practices did not violate the Constitution or the Voting Rights Act.[292][293][294][295] According to the judge, the case "resulted in wins and losses for all parties over the course of the litigation and culminated in what is believed to have been the longest voting rights bench trial in the history of the Northern District of Georgia."[296][297][298]

Since losing the election, Abrams has repeatedly claimed that the election was not fairly conducted[299] and has declined to call Kemp the legitimate governor of Georgia.[300] Her position is that Kemp, who oversaw the election in his role as Secretary of State, had a conflict of interest and suppressed turnout by purging nearly 670,000 voter registrations in 2017, and that about 53,000 voter registrations were pending a month before the election.[299][301] She has said, "I have no empirical evidence that I would have achieved a higher number of votes. However, I have sufficient and I think legally sufficient doubt about the process to say that it was not a fair election."[299]

On November 9, 2018, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported that its investigation of the 2018 statewide elections in Georgia had found "no evidence ... of systematic malfeasance – or of enough tainted votes to force a runoff election".[302] A follow-up analysis in December 2019 by the Atlanta Journal-Constitution found "an estimated 54,000 to 85,000 voters" were impacted by changes, such as precinct closures in the aftermath of Shelby County v. Holder. However, it found that Abrams would have need up to 67% of the votes at "ideal voting locations" for a runoff to occur.[279]

In his 2020 book, University of California law professor and election law expert Richard L. Hasen described Kemp as "perhaps the most incompetent state chief elections officer" in the 2018 elections and said it was "hard to tell" which of Kemp's "actions were due to incompetence and which were attempted suppression."[303]

According to Washington Post fact checker Glenn Kessler writing in September 2022, Abrams repeatedly falsely claimed that she "won" the election, that the election was "rigged", that it was "stolen", that it was not "free and fair", and that Kemp had "cheated". Kessler said that "Abrams played up claims the election was stolen until such tactics became untenable for anyone who claims to be an advocate for American democratic norms and values".[284]

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Official campaign websites

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