Talk:Second-term curse

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Why is FDR listed in 2nd Term Curse? FDR, was an American politician who served as the 32nd president of the United States from 1933 until his death in 1945.That is 3 terms. Not a 1 hit wonder. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franklin_D._Roosevelt?wprov=sfla1

Is this original research?

Is the topic of this article a genuine phenomenon, or has someone just noticed that bad things sometimes happen during second terms? It would be interesting to compare second terms with first terms to see if occurrences are more likely during a second term than a first - for example the September 11th attacks occurred during G W Bush's first term, and really set the tone for the remainder of his presidency...?

Also is there any evidence of this going back prior to WW2, or is this perhaps an example of recentism? — Preceding unsigned comment added by 109.94.137.1 (talk) 15:25, 7 May 2013 (UTC)[reply]

No, this is not original research. All content is cited by reliable sources such as the New York Times,[1] Washington Post,[2] Los Angeles Times,[3] and other American mainstream newspapers, who have all used the term "second-term curse" to explain the second terms of recent U.S. presidents (emphasis added). Because they have covered this idea for the past few years, it should meet Wikipedia's criteria for inclusion. However, they have not gone back as far as FDR as far as I know. Of course, like the Curse of Tippecanoe or sports-related curses, whether it is a genuine phenomenon or a coincidence or some "fun facts" to gossip about is in the eye of the beholder. Zzyzx11 (talk) 05:25, 8 May 2013 (UTC)[reply]

Obama

Since the Roll-out of Obamacare was a disaster, I put it in as part of the "Second term curse" but it was removed. Why? I dunno. But if you think about it, Nixon should be removed too because the Watergate break-in took place during his FIRST term. Also, the Vietnam war had been going on well before LBJ took office, and the notorious murder of Diem took place before the notorious Kennedy murder. So that should be taken out too.Ericl (talk) 14:04, 8 November 2013 (UTC)[reply]

Since his second term began, we have had unregistered users add anything and everything that has "gone wrong" in Obama's second term without a reliable source. Anything that is already listed should be cited with a reliable source that 1) mentions the second-term curse and 2) the event. This page was previously tagged as a candidate for deletion [4] on grounds of being a neologism. Therefore I would like to keep this strictly under Wikipedia's policies of verifiability, neutrality, and avoidance of original research. Unless you have a reliable source that 1) mentions the second-term curse and 2) Obamacare, you are welcome to re-add it. Thanks. Zzyzx11 (talk) 06:04, 9 November 2013 (UTC)[reply]

For example, here's the quote from the National Journal article: http://www.nationaljournal.com/2012-presidential-campaign/5-reasons-why-obama-and-romney-will-get-no-mandate-20121106 under the second-term curse section - "Just ask George W. Bush who tried to [change] Social Security in 2005".

Here's the quote from the Washington Post article "Fending Off the 'Second-Term Curse'" at http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A21942-2005Jan19.html: "Yet both those presidents joined the list of chief executives who saw things go sharply downhill after their first terms. Harry S. Truman and Lyndon B. Johnson, who enjoyed high popularity after filling out terms for predecessors who died in office, were so weakened politically that they chose not to seek reelection. Truman was done in by the Korean War, inflation and scandals; Johnson, by the Vietnam War, racial unrest and a reaction against the Great Society legislation." (emphasis added).

Thus I'm still looking for an article for a mainstream reliable source (whether NY Times, Washington Post, Newsweek, Time or even Fox News) that mentions both "second term curse" and "Obamacare". Thanks. Zzyzx11 (talk) 06:23, 9 November 2013 (UTC)[reply]

I would think that the rise of ISIS or the debt defaults could be added at this point. --167.219.88.140 (talk) 17:07, 31 August 2016 (UTC)[reply]

Again, I'm still looking for an article from a mainstream reliable source that points directly to the second term curse. The criteria for things that "have gone wrong" should not be based on the original research/thoughts/opinions of Wikipedia editors, or the list could become endless (especially with people who oppose Obama and view that everything he touches "has gone wrong"). Zzyzx11 (talk) 04:47, 1 September 2016 (UTC)[reply]

http://www.cnn.com/2013/11/15/politics/second-term-drama/ — Preceding unsigned comment added by Zookeeperman (talk • contribs) 19:34, 8 November 2016 (UTC)[reply]

Joke?Vandalism?

This line, "the ghost of George Washington might have put a curse on any president who seeks a second term"

seems like it is either vandalism, or a joke line. Maybe it is the style in which it is written, but it hardly seems editorial. — Preceding unsigned comment added by 96.38.9.178 (talk) 17:00, 31 October 2019 (UTC)[reply]

Does not being elected count?

Does running for a second term and not being elected (ever) count? Grover Cleveland obviously doesn't count because he was elected after the next president anyway. (Trump may try again in 4-8 years, but as badly as this one went, I doubt he'd get re-elected.) — Preceding unsigned comment added by 2603:8081:1610:E059:E5A5:62B2:8B8E:4803 (talk) 18:51, 7 November 2020 (UTC)[reply]

Obama sourcing

I removed the following items as unsourced:

HealthCare.gov launch issues^[1] - NY Times source says "To conservative opponents, battles over the Affordable Care Act website, Internal Revenue Service practices and the Benghazi attack signaled the Democratic president’s failure." and then goes on to identify Obama's reduction in the number of Americans without health insurance as a positive. I don't feel that this is strong enough to use without attribution.
Edward Snowden leaks^[2] - According to WP:RSP, statements sourced to the Washington Examiner should be attributed.
David Petraeus' guilty plea^[1]^[3] - Not mentioned in Fiscal Times. NY Times says "The closest thing to a public corruption prosecution tied to an Obama appointee’s official duties was a guilty plea by the former C.I.A. director David Petraeus in 2015 to a misdemeanor charge for allowing his mistress access to classified material. which could arguably support inclusion.
Numerous domestic terrorist attacks on U.S. soil, including the 2015 San Bernardino attack and the 2016 Orlando nightclub shooting^[4] - According to WP:RSP the Daily Wire is "generally unreliable for factual reporting".
Low public support for his strategy against ISIL^[1] - Failed verification; NY Times source does not mention Iraq war.

Although these items include references, the issue is that the sources are either unreliable or don't support the statement being made. –dlthewave ☎ 13:56, 8 March 2021 (UTC)[reply]

References

^ ^a ^b ^c Harwood, John (January 6, 2016). "Avoiding the Dreaded 'Second-Term Curse'". The New York Times. Retrieved December 5, 2016.
^ Hughes, Brian (July 19, 2014). "The 10 worst second-term moments for presidents since Richard Nixon". The Washington Examiner. Retrieved December 18, 2016.
^ Pianin, Eric (October 22, 2014). "While Obama Skulks Around, Hillary Rides a Crest of Popularity". The Fiscal Times. Retrieved December 5, 2016.
^ "A Complete List of Radical Islamic Terror Attacks on U.S. Soil Under Obama". Daily Wire. 2016-12-07. Retrieved 2017-01-30.

Survivorship Bias

Isn't this clearly and easily attributable to survivorship bias? Presidents who serve a second term are more likely to have had a strong first term, because having a strong first term makes you more likely to get elected again. So even if second terms are just average, they would still seem worse than first terms of two-term presidents, because first terms of two-term presidents are better than average. To know if it was real, you'd have to compare second terms to average presidential terms in general, not only first terms of two-term presidents. Finnigami (talk) 23:11, 8 July 2022 (UTC)[reply]

Donald Trump

Matt Gaetz withdrew himself from Attorney General consideration amidst a probe of sex trafficking (Source: [5]). Should the following be included under Donald Trump even though his second term hasn't started yet: Withdrawal of Matt Gaetz for United States Attorney General amidst a probe into allegations of sex trafficking? 217.180.201.163 (talk) 19:08, 21 November 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Only if, per WP:RS, a reliable source refers to the Gaetz withdrawl as part of the Second-term Curse. The source you provided does not do that. - Millionsandbillions (talk) 20:44, 24 November 2024 (UTC)[reply]

[obama2-1] Harwood, John (January 6, 2016). "Avoiding the Dreaded 'Second-Term Curse'". The New York Times. Retrieved December 5, 2016.

[2] Hughes, Brian (July 19, 2014). "The 10 worst second-term moments for presidents since Richard Nixon". The Washington Examiner. Retrieved December 18, 2016.

[3] Pianin, Eric (October 22, 2014). "While Obama Skulks Around, Hillary Rides a Crest of Popularity". The Fiscal Times. Retrieved December 5, 2016.

[4] "A Complete List of Radical Islamic Terror Attacks on U.S. Soil Under Obama". Daily Wire. 2016-12-07. Retrieved 2017-01-30.

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