Talk:2021 Bulgarian general election

Bundle

Several accounts included that but only one provided explanation. Anyway I fail to see the logic how using it in another article or a personal taste justifies distorting the data here. Different articles may suit their data to that but here it doesn't work. Polls in August show only DB to be 2nd party. When that bundle is added the line of DB is never placed higher than 4th place for the entire period from July to November. In August even the dot of DB is placed never higher than 3rd place and below ITN because ITN lacks any dot in August when this bundle is activated(I remind that DB is 2nd not 3rd in August unanimously as per polls). So this feature distorts both the lines and the dots without leaving any note of the actual poll results. When the bundle is removed all the lines are accurate. At least state your reason here before adding that disruption. Stevan22 (talk) 20:09, 21 October 2021 (UTC)

Using the Bundle gives a rough indicator of how votes changed over the time. It is not meant to be accurate, just a rough representation of how the votes fall. If a user wants to see the specifics, they can look at the table or the dots on the graph. Moreover, there are a couple of days in which there were polls that were done at similar time periods, which bundle deals with well, while just a line ends up with it looking a mess. Overall, the graph is for the trends of votes, which is accurately portrayed only through bundle, and it should be both clear and obvious what is happening to vote shares. Hence, bundle should be used. Quinnnnnby (talk) 20:24, 21 October 2021 (UTC)

I don't understand what you mean with "It is not meant to be accurate," and "the graph is for the trends of votes, which is accurately portrayed only through bundle,". Only? It is only inaccurate. Did you even read what I wrote? It is meant to be accurate for me if not for you. Hence bundle should not be used on this article. I do not need to argue that the accurate data is favourable over the distorted. Why it is not meant to be accurate for you????? That implies you may have conflict of interest with the party with which you openly declare affiliation on your user page. So I hope someone else joins here for whom it is meant to be accurate. Stevan22 (talk) 21:03, 21 October 2021 (UTC)

Accuracy is not everything, especially when looking at general trends. Non-bundled data is extremely messy and incoherent when polls are closer together, as they will get when the election comes closer. Also, on your point on party affiliation, there is no conflict of interest, I solely put that on my user page as I was the creator of the site & it was my first major page that I worked with. Personally, I don't particularly support any party in Bulgaria, I just want to make the opinion polling data obvious & clear for users who just quickly look at the data and do not have the time to rifle through all the specifics. Hope you understand where I'm coming from :) Quinnnnnby (talk) 21:13, 21 October 2021 (UTC)

Who is asking what is everything? So you are now going to make others believe you that you are here to hide and distort accuracy for some reason? For COI or not your confession to do so is a total nonsense. I am done with wasting time. Stevan22 (talk) 21:38, 21 October 2021 (UTC)

I am in no way distorting accuracy, all of the data is entirely accurate and done in a similar way to many other polling pages on this site - it is averaged out using a tried & tested formula that produces a graph that people can make sense of. I just hoped I would be able to change the graph to something that will futureproof it for the coming month or so when there will be a higher traffic of both people unfamiliar to Bulgarian politics and a higher number of polls. However, I guess there is little support for this. I wish you all the best Quinnnnnby (talk) 21:47, 21 October 2021 (UTC)

NOTA

There has been some back and forth over the use of NOTA (None of the above) in the opinion polls graph. I would argue that it is something that brings about confusion and inconsistency. Firstly, polls from each company vary - they will have different samples, different questions, different options. Therefore, the % of people choosing NOTA/TBD or similar is massively different between polls. Take the Exacta & Sova Harris polls. Both finished the poll on the same day, but have radically different % of NOTA/TBD, with 12% and 1.7% respectively. This means that there are inconsistencies in the results of the polls, since a high NOTA will often decrease the % scores for other political parties, disrupting the trends. Furthermore, having a NOTA line on the graph suggests to a casual user that there is suddenly this party that has jumped to 12% in a matter of a day, when in fact it is just people choosing no party. Practically all other opinion polling pages exclude this data for these reasons and more, so data should be recalculated to accommodate for this. Quinnnnnby (talk) 20:24, 21 October 2021 (UTC)

It is a biased opinion to remove the NOTA polls. Why not remove these no NOTA polls? I don't know in which case it would be more confusing, but hiding either data is going to make it more deceiving. NOTA is part of the ballot and as a general rule all the results of the poll should be listed before you reach an agreement to exclude something. Other articles have elections without NOTA in the ballot, and even if with it excluding it, it is on their own part. The PP party is also new and excluded from many polls making incosistency between them. So what? And what are these bizzare figures change of your last edit that I couldn't find in the polls? Let's stick to polls 79.100.132.135 (talk) 20:42, 21 October 2021 (UTC)

The figures Quinnnnby is reverting to remain unexplained and not in the sources provided. Stevan22 (talk) 21:07, 21 October 2021 (UTC)

Hi, I calculated data by using the simple formula of (party support)/(100-NOTA/TBD). I have not recalculated data much prior to this, so if there is a better formula it would be great if I could be informed on this for the future. It is a usual procedure to recalculate data so that NOTA is not included, especially since it can distort figures. Unfortunately, there is seemingly no perfect way forward, as you either have to include not fully accurate data on the graph or include a NOTA line that creates large inconsistencies and can easily be mistaken for a party by a casual viewer. However, I would like to refute your point about the PP party, since it is included in every poll since its creation, hence there is no inconsistency as it just represents its support from creation. A more apt point would focus on the lack of some of the parties like IMRO-BND, though that is covered by the 'other' section. Especially when combined with non-bundle data, the NOTA data makes the entire graph chaos and it is preferable to just remove it and include a note at the bottom, which is already there even though data does include NOTA/TBD.

Also, I was unaware that there was a NOTA option on the ballot paper - I thought this was only a feature for the presidential election. If you have any sources to prove that this isn't the case I will concede to your point about this. Thanks Quinnnnnby (talk) 21:28, 21 October 2021 (UTC)

I've made a recalculation and got up to 0.3% deviation for each figure to Quinnnnnby revision. Wonder which is more correct? 79.100.132.135 (talk) 15:59, 24 October 2021 (UTC)

color

Hi

For some parties, the colors are WP:OR. --Panam2014 (talk) 14:02, 23 October 2021 (UTC)

Hi, I think the colours were changed recently to distinguish between the parties. Many (e.g. DPS, PP, Gerb, DB) had similar colours that made it hard to tell one from another, especially in a graphical setting. However, the colours chosen do not seem to have any basis, so it might be worth changing them to secondary colours (i.e. ones included on websites/logos) Quinnnnnby (talk) 17:35, 24 October 2021 (UTC)

Barometer

Someone removed that poll becasue the agency "doesn't" have its own website. And threfore condemned it as unreliable, but it is still trusted by major newspapers and TV media. That is its actual website http://www.barometar.eu/ Personally, I don't find the argument decisive. 79.100.132.135 (talk) 16:07, 24 October 2021 (UTC) This agenecy was under a hacker attack and therefore the website is frozen [1] The argument to remove that poll is insubstantional 79.100.132.135 (talk) 16:15, 24 October 2021 (UTC)

To include that or not?

The article Nationwide hypothetical polling for the 2020 United States presidential election includes polls taken in many news websites. Fox, particularly asked for telephone number, while the proposed ones don't. So, their porblem is the margin of error relies based on cookies or web address. Online newspapers are most popular in both Bulgaria and the US, so the covered audience may be comparable. The most popular is probably 24 chasa. Of course, the news sites have large margin of error and shouldn't be included in the graph individually. The proposed ones: [2] [3] [4] [5] 79.100.132.135 (talk) 19:18, 26 October 2021 (UTC) The newspaper 24 chasa's website was the second most[6] popular website in Bulgaria in 2019 after an online store, and the second most popular online news agency was Fakti with both agencies having more than 1.5 million users each out of about 4.5 million internet users. They were displaced in 2020. Both[7][8] provide ongoing polls that show opposite winners in the presidential election, and may be used as mean in the graph. It won't be a good idea to publish the parliamentary poll in the same box because it largely understimates most of the votes of one party DPS, the ethnic minority party. However, if this is the only case it would be OK to use them for the presidential polls(at least second round). 24 chasa shows GERB-SDS voters to be the majority 52%, so it may host a biased sample due to its political bias making readers hugely retreat, or it may reflect trends that are nationwide against Radev's alliance because of his cabinet's very recent strict changes on pandemic restrictions. 79.100.132.135 (talk) 23:28, 26 October 2021 (UTC)

So, these were the top parties in the polls of 24 Chasa. Previous elections:
11.03 - GERB 26%, VMRO 16%, PK 12% [9]
26.05 - GERB 50%, DB 10%, ITN 8% [10]
This election:
17.09 - GERB 45%, PP 18%, 6% BSP [11]
12.10 - GERB 53%, PP 14%, 8% BSP [12]
27.10 - PP 57% [13] (9400 voters)
The last one has large sample, and it says it allowed one vote per IP. That's how this data applies to the graph

79.100.132.135 (talk) 23:36, 27 October 2021 (UTC)

Hi, I think that it's incorrect to mix up official polls and online polls. But it is possible to create a separate graph just for online polls. There is an issue with these online polls, though - most of them are conducted, as you mentioned, by "24 Chasa". And it is basically an open secret here that 24 Chasa, Trud, and other media are strongly biased towards GERB. So even if a separate graph is made, most information may be deceiving and incorrect.Tnvsjk2013 (talk) 16:27, 28 October 2021 (UTC)

Title

I'm surprised that this article, though started in August, doesn't include November in the title despite the titles July 2021 Bulgarian parliamentary election and April 2021 Bulgarian parliamentary election. Mcljlm (talk) 13:15, 15 November 2021 (UTC)

Because this is a general rather than parliamentary election, so doesn't need disambiguating by month. Number 57 13:21, 15 November 2021 (UTC)

The article's 2nd sentence is "They were the country's third parliamentary elections in 2021, with no party able to form a government after the elections in April and July." and Section 1 Background refers to the July election, suggesting the month is needed. Mcljlm (talk) 21:22, 15 November 2021 (UTC)

The article is about both though, hence 'general election'. There has only been one general election this year. Number 57 21:46, 15 November 2021 (UTC)

General election states "A general election is a political voting election where generally all or most members of a given political body are chosen." Note the following: https://bnr.bg/en/post/101553532/five-days-remain-until-2-in-1-vote-in-bulgaria refers to "simultaneous presidential elections", https://balkaninsight.com/2021/11/15/new-anti-corruption-party-leads-in-bulgarian-parliamentary-elections/ "parliamentary elections" and "simultaneous presidential elections", https://www.euractiv.com/section/elections/news/change-continues-is-the-surprise-winner-of-bulgarian-elections/ "the parliamentary and presidential elections", https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/new-centrist-party-poised-win-bulgarias-election-partial-results-show-2021-11-15/ "parliamentary and presidential elections" and "third parliamentary election this year", https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-business-europe-general-elections-elections-a782a6c1512f739795aebec3c5af4a0a "parliamentary elections" and "After Bulgaria held inconclusive general elections in April and July, many hoped this third attempt ...". In its hourly news broadcasts the BBC World Service is referring to it as the 3rd parliamentary election this year. Mcljlm (talk) 02:01, 16 November 2021 (UTC)

This article is meant for both the parliamentary and the presidential election. Thus, I agree that "2021 Bulgarian general election" is the better suited title and that it does not need disambigation (it's the only Bulgarian general election taking place in 2021). Impru20^talk 06:12, 16 November 2021 (UTC)

There were 2 general elections held simultaneously, one parliamentary, the other presidential. The April and July elections were also general elections: "Bulgaria drifts towards a third general election this year" and "he opposed calls to hold forthcoming repeat parliamentary elections and presidential elections on a single date in November" https://balkaninsight.com/2021/09/03/bulgarian-mps-president-clash-over-holding-two-elections-at-once/; "Bulgaria’s presidential and early parliamentary elections" https://www.aa.com.tr/en/politics/bulgaria-to-hold-runoff-for-presidential-elections/2420918. Note also Merriam-Webster's definition "an election usually held at regular intervals in which candidates are elected in all or most constituencies of a nation or state" and the phrase "presidential general election" in its first example https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/general%20election; notice also "an election in which the people living in a country vote to choose the government" https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/general-election — Preceding unsigned comment added by Mcljlm (talk • contribs) 14:31, 16 November 2021 (UTC)

Yes, a parliamentary AND a presidential election being held simultaneously is the reason why this one is called "general", as opposed to the April and July ones, which were just parliamentary. What's the exact petition here? I'm unable to understand what the issue is. Impru20^talk 15:06, 16 November 2021 (UTC)

It's not parliamentary and presidential elections held simultaneously which make it general. In addition to the definitions above see the explanations at https://cavotes.org/types-elections under the headings What is a general election?, When are general elections held? and What is the purpose of a general election? as well as the following definitions: "A general election is an election in which candidates are elected to offices. This is in contrast to a primary election, which is used either to narrow the field of candidates for a given elective office or to determine the nominees for political parties in advance of a general election." https://ballotpedia.org/General_election, "A regular election of candidates for office, as opposed to a primary election." and the example "‘Presidential general elections and primary elections need not be an instantaneous public interest poll.’" https://www.lexico.com/definition/general_election, "an election to choose from among candidates previously nominated in a primary election, by party convention, etc." and "a nationwide or statewide election", https://www.collinsdictionary.com/dictionary/english/general-election, "an election in which every adult in the country can vote for the people who will represent them in parliament" https://www.macmillandictionary.com/dictionary/british/general-election, "an election in which all the people in a country who can vote elect a government" https://www.ldoceonline.com/dictionary/general-election, "An election involving all or most constituencies of a state or nation in the choice of candidates" https://ahdictionary.com/word/search.html?q=general+election, "That really big election in which all seats in the House of Commons are up for grabs and a new federal government is formed." https://www.apathyisboring.com/demodictionary, "An election, usually held at regular intervals, in which candidates are elected in all or most constituencies or electoral districts of a nation." and the examples which follow https://www.wordsense.eu/general_election/m "a national or state election; candidates are chosen in all constituencies)" http://wordnetweb.princeton.edu/perl/webwn?s=general+election, and the definitions at https://dictionary.university/General%20Election. — Preceding unsigned comment added by Mcljlm (talk • contribs) 16:08, 17 November 2021 (UTC)

General election has two meanings; in some countries it means a parliamentary election; in others it means elections of the president and parliament on the same day. I don't see what's so hard to understand about this. Number 57 17:12, 17 November 2021 (UTC)

General election, as per Wikipedia's own definition: "political voting election where generally all or most members of a given political body are chosen". Note that "general election" only equals to "parliamentary election" for countries which do not have an elected head of state (Spain, UK, etc.). For countries that elect a president as head of state, a general election only happens when both the parliamentary and the presidential elections are held simultaneously. Impru20^talk 17:44, 17 November 2021 (UTC)

https://ballotpedia.org/Election_results,_2014 and https://ballotpedia.org/Election_results,_2018 as well as https://www.electproject.org/us-elections-project-blog/2014-general-election-turnout-rates, https://www.electproject.org/2018g and https://cavotes.org/types-elections/ show "general elections" aren't restricted to years in which they're elected simultaneously. They also show "general election" doesn't only refer to those for US Congress and US President. Mcljlm (talk) 20:39, 17 November 2021 (UTC)

Notice Number 57 and Impru20 the following about the 2022 and 2023 Bulgarian parliamentary elections - "Fifth general elections in two years in Bulgaria" https://www.robert-schuman.eu/en/monitor/2017-fifth-general-elections-in-two-years-in-bulgaria and "Bulgaria Edges Closer to Sixth General Election in Two Years" https://balkaninsight.com/2023/05/04/bulgaria-edges-closer-to-sixth-general-election-in-two-years/ - as well as https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/bulgaria/, https://www.europeanmovement.ie/latvia-bulgaria-general-election-october-2022/ and https://apnews.com/article/bulgaria-election-voting-russia-politics-4e1d4a2c0376606fa992f532d3fb544b.

Yes – "general election" has two meanings – it can mean presidential/parliamentary elections being held together, or it can mean just a parliamentary election. In the sources you provide they are using the latter. Number 57 22:48, 18 January 2024 (UTC)

What's your basis for saying Number 57 that one meaning of "general election" is presidential/parliamentary elections being held at the same time? Mcljlm (talk) 16:42, 19 January 2024 (UTC)

It's common usage, hence why we have article titles like 2024 Uruguayan general election, 2022 Kenyan general election, 2023 Guatemalan general election and so on. See, for example, this UK parliament briefing on the 2020 Tanzanian general election (A general election was held on mainland Tanzania and the semi-autonomous Zanzibar on Wednesday 28 October 2020. As well as electing a president and vice-president, the electorate also voted for members of the National Assembly). Number 57 18:42, 19 January 2024 (UTC)

Categories

Currently the Categories for this article are different from those for the 2 previous 2021 elections:

Current elections, 2021 elections in Europe, 2021 elections in Bulgaria, Elections in Bulgaria, Opinion polling for future elections, Presidential elections in Bulgaria while those for the 2 previous 2021 Bulgarian elections

compared with

2021 elections in Europe, 2021 elections in Bulgaria, July 2021 events in Europe, Parliamentary elections in Bulgaria and

and

2021 elections in Europe, 2021 elections in Bulgaria, April 2021 events in Europe, Parliamentary elections in Bulgaria

Shouldn't they be the same apart for the month? Mcljlm (talk) 13:55, 15 November 2021 (UTC)

It's in Category:Current elections because of the tag – this will disappear when it's removed. And it's in Category:Presidential elections in Bulgaria because this article includes a presidential election. I've replaced Category:Elections in Bulgaria with Category:Parliamentary elections in Bulgaria, added Category:November 2021 events in Europe and removed the opinion polling one, as it's no longer a future election. Number 57 13:59, 15 November 2021 (UTC)

Two articles

I notice the Bulgarian, French, German and Italian WP editions each have two articles, one for the parliamentary election and the other for the presidential election: Президентски избори в България (2021), Парламентарни избори в България (ноември 2021); Élections législatives bulgares de novembre 2021, Élection présidentielle bulgare de 2021; Parlamentswahl in Bulgarien November 2021, Präsidentschaftswahl in Bulgarien 2021; Elezioni parlamentari in Bulgaria del novembre 2021, Elezioni presidenziali in Bulgaria del 2021. It would be sensible to do the same in the English edition as well, using the text of the article relating to the presidential election to create a new article entitled 2021 Bulgarian presidential election and adding its title as well as this article's (changed?) title to the list at 2021 Bulgarian parliamentary election (see French election, 2017) whose title would be changed unless a 2021 elections disambiguation page is created. Mcljlm (talk) 18:15, 18 November 2021 (UTC)

I disagree and think it's better to keep a single article. How other language wikis do things isn't really relevant here; each has their own conventions. Number 57 18:27, 18 November 2021 (UTC)

2 articles wouldn't be a precedent. Note 2017 French legislative election and 2017 French presidential election Mcljlm (talk) 18:46, 18 November 2021 (UTC)

Those two elections were not held on the same day, so is irrelevant as a comparison. Relevant comparisons (from just this year) are: 2020–21 Central African general election, 2021 Chilean general election, 2021 Ecuadorian general election, 2021 Honduran general election, 2021 Nicaraguan general election, 2020–21 Nigerien general election, 2021 Peruvian general election, 2021 Ugandan general election, 2021 Zambian general election. Number 57 18:57, 18 November 2021 (UTC)

I would ask Mcljlm to focus on what their actual pretense is and to stop opening different threads on what seemingly constitutes the same issue. Number 57 is right here, elections held in the same day are normally shown in one article. What other wikis do is not our concern, en.wiki conventions do not have to match those of any other wikis. Impru20^talk 19:11, 18 November 2021 (UTC)

File recreation

Can someone kindly convert the seat-distribution file to SVG? My computer wasn't permitting to download any software and thus I uploaded it in PNG format. Thanks. Mrvl2009 (talk) 10:47, 19 November 2021 (UTC)

A Commons file used on this page or its Wikidata item has been nominated for deletion

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Order of elections in infobox

Currently in the infobox the presidential election appears above the parliamentary one. This, IMHO, is wrong - Bulgaria is parliamentary democracy where the president is just a figurehead. The important elections are the parliamentary elections, and should therefor appear first. Would anyone object to changing the order? Rami R 07:57, 17 October 2022 (UTC)