Talk:2005 Atlantic hurricane season/October

October

Week 1

So it looks like we will start October out busy...depending on what happens with the wave in the Caribbean...I say by the end of the month, we're in Greek letters! (My prediction: 6 named storms, 3 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes) CrazyC83 23:54, 30 September 2005 (UTC)

19L.NONAME

AoI:001-Alt

(Discussion originally included in AoI:001, but this is the NEXT wave, first noted on 26 September).

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ABOUT 600 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.  WHILE THE
ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY MINIMAL...SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS
IT DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD.

Looks like if anything, it'll take it's time to develop. -- NSLE | Talk 06:45, 30 September 2005 (UTC)

90L.INVEST

THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE AND THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 650 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM
ALREADY HAS A SURFACE CIRCULATION SO AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
OVER OPEN WATERS.

It's now 90L.INVEST--Keith Edkins 12:10, 30 September 2005 (UTC)

This looks like it could develop as well...although I can't see a Cape Verde storm being more than a fish-spinner in October (but this is 2005, so rules don't mean a thing!!) BTW later today, when the October thread is added, this should be moved other there. My prediction for October: 6 named storms, 3 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes (one landfalling, the other a fish-spinner). CrazyC83 16:22, 30 September 2005 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 19

The Navy site now lists it as 19L NONAME but the NHC is mute. Anyone know what the hell is going on?

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 20:28, 30 September 2005 (UTC)

The Navy usually publish the number first. Expect NHC Advisory 1 any minute now.--Keith Edkins 20:44, 30 September 2005 (UTC)...Told ya--Keith Edkins 20:54, 30 September 2005 (UTC)

Ha! Ha! The Atlantic is alive again! [1]

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 21:03, 30 September 2005 (UTC)

Unfortunately, Stan's record is coming up fast. Unless this thing gets it together QUICKLY, we'll not have the record. -- RattleMan 21:47, 30 September 2005 (UTC)

This will be close...it has to be Tropical Storm Stan at the 11:00 advisory to keep the record going... CrazyC83 23:56, 30 September 2005 (UTC)

That's odd... Now the Cape Verde Season is happening in October... What's next? A major hurricane in December? RoswellAtup 05:58, 01 October 2005 (UTC)

Oh boy, a Cape Verde Hurricane? Can we really stand to have a monster hurricane now? User:tdwuhs

It might be possible we might have a small tropical storm in early December, it would be weird, but I think it's possible at this rate. --Revolución (talk) 22:50, 30 September 2005 (UTC)

Just as expected, this swirl will much likely to develop earlier than the one on western Caribbean, Hmmm, what's scary now is that the 99L.Invest is much like Hurricane Opal of 1995's birthplace... What if history will repeat itself? RoswellAtup 06:37, 01 October 2005 (UTC)

Looks like a fish-spinner for Stan...and 99L does remind me of Opal right now...could Tammy be the next big one? Can we even stand another big one? CrazyC83 23:52, 30 September 2005 (UTC)

Let's hope Bob won the pool for strongest storm, tough someone did bet on Tammy being the strongest. But let's hope if it does form nothing major. The residents of the Gulf Coast can't handle any more storms. User:tdwuhs

I think Emily will be upgraded into a category 5 hurricane and Maria will be downgraded into a category 2 storm.... -RoswellAtup 08:22, 01 October 2005 (UTC)

It looks like we lost Stan. NHC doesn't upgrade it in spite of it looking great on imagery. -- RattleMan 02:40, 1 October 2005 (UTC)

Poor Stan doesn't have any chance of becoming a hurricane too! -RoswellAtup 09:02, 01 October 2005 (UTC)

You don't seem to realize that hurricanes kill people and damage cities. --Revolución (talk) 17:31, 1 October 2005 (UTC)

Unless conditions improve, I don't think this system will become Stan, the environment just isn't friendly enough. Of course, that's what we said about Tropical Depression Nine (better known as Hurricane Irene).

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 19:23, 1 October 2005 (UTC)

Kiss this thing goodbye...it ain't gonna be Tammy... CrazyC83 15:29, 2 October 2005 (UTC)

20L.Stan

99L.INVEST

Backup Navy site says 99L. -- RattleMan 14:16, 26 September 2005 (UTC)

Is that that Caribbean storm? Yeah, that thing does look better organized than it did yesterday and the NHC says conditions could become more favorable soon.

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 16:04, 26 September 2005 (UTC)

And the models [2] [3] are liking this one for Stan. Grumble, grumble. --Holderca1 18:43, 26 September 2005 (UTC)

It doesn't look half-bad on the 'ole Navy satellite. On another note, it seems they dropped 98L.invest. --tomf688^{talk} 18:46, 26 September 2005 (UTC)

And according to das models, it could be entering the Gulf within the next several days. --tomf688^{talk} 18:50, 26 September 2005 (UTC)

It all depends on if it hits the pool of extremely warm water south of the larger Caribbean islands... CrazyC83 20:11, 26 September 2005 (UTC)

It also depends on if it survives the so-so conditions it's in right now. The visible isn't very impressive. I see about four possible centers in that thing [4]. The Dvorak IR image however gives a clear center: right in the middle of the mess [5].

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 22:10, 26 September 2005 (UTC)

Looks like the NHC no longer cares about it. [6] -- RattleMan 03:07, 27 September 2005 (UTC)

The 1-2-3 rule is only for active tropical cyclones and imminent tropical cyclones (formation forecast within 36 hours). The NHC still mentions the possibility of an improving upper-level environment on the system. [7]

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 03:37, 27 September 2005 (UTC)

NHC no longer interested? In their most recent TWO, they called it "vigorous", and thunderstorm activity has increased significantly over the past several hours. --tomf688^{talk} 20:52, 27 September 2005 (UTC)

They've got a Hurricane Hunter flight scheduled tomorrow. Note that every Hurricane Hunter aircraft that has taken off and flown into a disturbance this season has found that it was a tropical cyclone. Also, those flights cost a lot of taxpayer money per flight, so the NHC must be damned curious about it to send a plane down there.

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 21:20, 27 September 2005 (UTC)

Now the 1-2-3 rule thing says that cyclone development is possible within 36 hours in that general area. -- RattleMan 22:28, 27 September 2005 (UTC)

8 PM TWD:

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W S OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 15N. THIS SYSTEM IS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO INTENSIFY TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN 36 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW MORNING IF NECESSARY. RESIDENTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS BETWEEN JAMAICA AND HONDURAS FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 76W-84W.

-- RattleMan 00:16, 29 September 2005 (UTC)

They've been saying that for a while and is hasn't amounted to anything. Somebody (the storm or the Center) is crying wolf.

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 03:19, 29 September 2005 (UTC)

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM. INTERESTS IN AND AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE. Sounds like TD19 to me? CrazyC83 16:29, 29 September 2005 (UTC)

Looks like it too: [8], [9]. If it looks like a duck, walks like a duck, and sounds like a duck; it's a duck. Plus the NHC is getting more nervous by the minute. I can just see them now biting their nails raw waiting for that plane to get there. We could have a problem here friends.

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 19:06, 29 September 2005 (UTC)

Hey! What do you know, reverse psychology does work. [10].

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 19:36, 29 September 2005 (UTC)

At least we all know that is out there...and it still has time to develop...although likely just another storm like Bret, Gert and Jose... CrazyC83 20:31, 29 September 2005 (UTC)

Well would you rather have a major hurricane plow into Mexico?

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 20:40, 29 September 2005 (UTC)

The NHC is just confusing us! Yesterday they're telling us that the upper-levek conditions are more conducive and now they're telling us it less favorable... What the heck!!@$%*#! hmph!They're taking us for fools. I'm betting that the one on the Cape_verde will more likely to develop into Stan. RoswellAtup 05:40, 1 October 2005 (UTC)

Me too, but that one I can't see being any threat to land... CrazyC83 16:42, 30 September 2005 (UTC)

And we continue into October with 99L not knowing what it wants to do. -- RattleMan 00:09, 1 October 2005 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 20

It's now TD20. Which will develop first? CrazyC83 14:57, 1 October 2005 (UTC)

FINALLY. Took it long enough! I think TD19 will develop first, because this one took so damn long to get to TD status... -- RattleMan 15:02, 1 October 2005 (UTC)

Me too, I have a feeling this may not even reach tropical storm strength - and if it does, only barely...it doesn't have much time to do so before landfall. Possibly if TD20 stalls in the Bay of Campeche and starts to move northward over the Loop Current, it would strengthen though. I'm surprised TD19 is not yet Tropical Storm Stan, although for a distant fish-spinner, you often have to guess...since there is little in the way of observations available, and it would be a waste of resources to send a Hurricane Hunter out there. CrazyC83 15:06, 1 October 2005 (UTC)

But what about the shipping interests? WON'T SOMEONE PLEASE THINK OF THE SHIPPING INTERESTS?!?!?! Ahm, pardon me. At any rate, TD20 is still going to pass into the Gulf of Mexico after it crosses the Yucatan, so it could make TS or hurricane there if it doesn't make it before landfall, AND if it doesn't completely dissipate over the peninsula. --tomf688^{talk} 15:09, 1 October 2005 (UTC)

What order do we put the page in, if 19 and 20 become Tammy & Stan (respectively)?--Keith Edkins 15:16, 1 October 2005 (UTC)

Eh, good question. I suppose we rearrange them alphabetically. --tomf688^{talk} 15:18, 1 October 2005 (UTC)

Only if they both develop, in that order. Should 20 become Stan and 19 dissipate, it should remain as it is. CrazyC83 00:32, 2 October 2005 (UTC)

I think we should list them by TD number. There's certainly precedent; with the 2005 Pacific typhoon season we listed Damrey (17W) over Saola (18W) even though Saola got its name first. --NSLE | Talk 06:07, 2 October 2005 (UTC)

Hmmm, I'm beginning to think that both will never reach Tropical storm strengths...RoswellAtup 17:23, 1 October 2005 (UTC)

most likely, but it's possible the system could survive after passing over Yucatan, which would be bad because it would strengthen in the Gulf and could become a Cat 1 or 2 Hurricane Tammy if the system in the Atlantic develops into Stan first --Revolución (talk) 17:26, 1 October 2005 (UTC)

And what is the protocol if 19 and 20 become Tropical Storms at the same hour?...does earlier depression get the earlier letter or do they try to call which crossed the threshhold first?...does 20 have an unfair advantage on promotion because it's being looked at more often?--Louis E./le@put.com/12.144.5.2 19:03, 1 October 2005 (UTC)

I believe that if they formed at the same hour, they'd go by who got numbered first. That's just my understanding of it.

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 19:10, 1 October 2005 (UTC)

According to recon reports, a plane recorded wind speeds above 39 mph...but the 1 AM advisory didn't upgrade it. What... -- RattleMan 06:01, 2 October 2005 (UTC)

40 mph flight-level winds mean about 30-35 mph winds on the surface.

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 18:08, 2 October 2005 (UTC)

I know that (90% or something), and it was still above 39 mph. But that doesn't matter now, we got him. -- RattleMan 18:19, 2 October 2005 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Stan

...TROPICAL STORM STAN FORMS JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...

AT ABOUT 120 AM CDT... DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWENTY HAD INCREASED TO 45 MPH.  THEREFORE THE SYSTEM
HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM STAN... THE 18TH NAMED STORM OF
THE 2005 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON.  STAN IS ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL
ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO.

Yay! Now all we need is for TD19 to get it together. [11] -- RattleMan 07:11, 2 October 2005 (UTC)

I sure wouldn't want to be Mexico right now... getting pounded by two storms simultanrously, one on each side. 80.178.195.91 09:33, 2 October 2005 (UTC)

Pretty scary, but what if Stan could make an Opal-repetition? RoswellAtup 11:40, 2 October 2005 (UTC)

I wouldn't be surprised if it did...he just needs to survive over the Yucatan and he's got a Katrina-like opportunity to enter rapid deepening... CrazyC83 15:28, 2 October 2005 (UTC)

The steering seems fairly clear-cut to take it into the Mexican coast, though... unless you're seeing something I'm not (in which case, please correct me!) The Great Zo 16:50, 2 October 2005 (UTC)

The NHC seems to be becoming less confident that Stan will continue straight into Mexico, perhaps instead stopping entirely or changing direction. They also said that there's a 49% chance of rapid deepening. Not a good sign. 69.86.16.61 03:58, 4 October 2005 (UTC)

Despite the very warm waters of the Gulf, I can't see it becoming more than Cat 1 or Cat 2. --Revolución (talk) 17:16, 2 October 2005 (UTC)

A special advisory is being released... the storm is upgraded to 70 MPH and pressure has fallen RAPIDLY in the last few hours. We will see a Hurricane by the time I wake up tomorrow for sure (and a new header in this section, I'm sure). The Great Zo 06:12, 4 October 2005 (UTC)

They also saying it's moving faster - This could mean a friendlier environment for 92L to develop into. -- RattleMan 06:20, 4 October 2005 (UTC)

Hurricane Stan

Mexico's heading for a good old beating now... -- NSLE | Talk 11:28, 4 October 2005 (UTC)

Stan made landfall much quicker than expected...he turned to the southwest and took a shortcut to land... CrazyC83 15:39, 4 October 2005 (UTC)

That actually could be a good thing. It hit land before it had time to get any stronger.

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 16:32, 4 October 2005 (UTC)

CNN is reporting that 38 people have been killed by mudslides in El Salvador as a result of Stan [12]. This raises the possibility that, if enough mudslides occur, Stan may be considered for retirement despite being a weak storm. 69.86.16.61 18:47, 4 October 2005 (UTC)

It depends on how high the numbers go...but you're right, it could almost warrant its own article on all things except one: the lack of information. This could be a rare case where an article is created posthumously...last I checked, death toll was 51. Cesar was retired despite hitting the region as only a Category 1 storm and had a similar death toll... CrazyC83 20:47, 4 October 2005 (UTC)

Stan would make 5 candidates for retirement (Dennis, Emily, Katrina and Rita being the others). Probability: Dennis-85%, Emily-67%, Katrina-99%, Rita-95%, Stan-58%. Of course, I would have put Hurricane Gordon at 92% and Hurricane Klaus at 42% so anything can happen. The current record's been tied too many (3) times anyway.

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 21:55, 4 October 2005 (UTC)

Stan seems not all that different from Hurricane Diana and Hurricane Cesar-Douglas, which were retired. Of course, the odds of a storm name being retired are generally based on how damaging storms of that season have been, not how damaging all storms have been, and everything in this season pales in comparison to Katrina and Rita. Also, I would say that Ophelia has about the same odds as Stan of being retired at the moment (maybe 60%), mostly because name retirements are highly biased towards the US and damage to the US (and Canada). 69.86.16.61 22:02, 4 October 2005 (UTC)

From the Eastern Pacific tropical weather outlook:

THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF MEXICO HAS BECOME ABSORBED BY THE LARGER CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL STORM STAN CENTERED OVER THE STATE OF OAXACA. THE COMBINATIONS OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS IS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF MEXICO AND THE PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

This could be bad. What if Stan stalls do to the interaction? I don't want to think of how bad it could be if that happens.

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 23:39, 4 October 2005 (UTC)

That's possible too, and 99E.INVEST (Pacific TD16-E?) could also play a role in this... CrazyC83 03:15, 5 October 2005 (UTC)

Article shift?

51 are reported to be dead right now, and likely to rise, due to Stan's mudslides and floods. Should we move this to a separate article (although we need to find more information to get it detailed)? CrazyC83 20:51, 4 October 2005 (UTC)

Let's hold off until we have sufficient information to put together an article. Once we know enough about it, by all mean go ahead, but let's let the smoke clear first.

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 21:47, 4 October 2005 (UTC)

Hurricane Stan --Revolución (talk) 22:09, 4 October 2005 (UTC)

Dude! That's copied and pasted from the main article. That's BAD!

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 22:18, 4 October 2005 (UTC)

91L.INVEST

A new invest has formed out in the Atlantic at around 15N-37W. The Great Zo 16:17, 3 October 2005 (UTC)

Yeah, I noticed that too, but this one doesn't stand a chance. Conditions for development out there are bad and getting worse. This system is pitiful, almost no deep convection to it whatsoever. Pretty soon there will probably be nothing left.

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 00:02, 4 October 2005 (UTC)

They might as well let this thing go, it ain't gonna develop into nothing. Focus on Stan and 92L (TD21 tomorrow?). CrazyC83 02:42, 4 October 2005 (UTC)

And it's gone - well that was exciting, wasn't it? The Great Zo 13:05, 4 October 2005 (UTC)

22L.Tammy

NOTE: Tammy was originally 21L.Tammy, but because of the unnamed sub-tropical storm, it became 22L.Tammy; this applies for the rest of the storms that followed.

AoI:10W1-01 - Bahamas

11:30 AM TWO mentions:

"A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT
700 MILES EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR."

-- RattleMan 15:41, 1 October 2005 (UTC)

They say winds are unfavorable right now... ho-hum, thats what they also said about Hurricane Rita... Scary... ...RoswellAtup 17:30, 1 October 2005 (UTC)

can we just stick to reporting INVESTS and not clutter up the talk page with these "areas of interests"?

A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH A
WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW...IS CENTERED
A FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. ALTHOUGH
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT...THEY COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD.

-- RattleMan 18:28, 2 October 2005 (UTC)

perhaps it will become an invest in a few hours, and has anyone also noticed that blob east of the lesser antilles? could this be tammy? -- RoswellAtup 04:01, 3 October 2005 (UTC)

OMG DID YOU SEE THAT BLOB OVER TEXAS? THAT COULD BE A CAT 5 LOLOLOLOLOLOLOZORS!!!! OK, seriously though, the NHC has tentatively scheduled recon flights for the area near the Bahamas, and since the Navy site is down... it's possible it's an Invest by now. The Great Zo 14:43, 3 October 2005 (UTC)

From what I've heard, if this thing moved into the Gulf of Mexico it wouldn't develop very much, if at all. Upper-level winds and high shear are unfavorable for development across the northern Gulf. I don't think we have to worry about this one too much. bob rulz 03:20, 5 October 2005 (UTC)

92L.INVEST

The system is now an Invest... and the TWO is a bit more aggressive on it. It's hard not to be a bit alarmist at this one, while looking at where it's forming and the potential track... The Great Zo 16:17, 3 October 2005 (UTC)

Our third Category 5 of the season? I'm shuddering already. "Bahama Busters" are going to be infamous for years if this becomes Tammy and even approaches the strengths of Katrina and Rita. 69.86.16.61 21:57, 3 October 2005 (UTC)

Didn't someone predict that to happen down below? It needs to get to 180 mph, or 175 mph/896 mb, to beat Rita... CrazyC83 22:31, 3 October 2005 (UTC)

Wow another Bahama Buster? And we think Cape Verde Hurricanes are bad. Look at Katrina and Rita powerful storms even when landfalling and what destruction! Can we handle another one? By the time this season is over anyone with sense would move away from the Gulf Coast. User:tdwuhs

Ah, but the siren song of the shore is too great a pull for most. I know it is for me.

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 23:33, 3 October 2005 (UTC)

It's also harder when you get later into October, especially considering there is a ridge sitting over the Gulf (sending Stan into Mexico), which would send this thing up the Eastern Seaboard if it develops. CrazyC83 02:35, 4 October 2005 (UTC)

Hmmm, the forecast for October will have 3 named storms... Does it include Stan? RoswellAtup 03:04, 4 October 2005 (UTC)

Crazy C, ouch, good point. That would suck.

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 03:19, 4 October 2005 (UTC)

Here is the track http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_92.gif --199.44.251.2 12:41, 4 October 2005 (UTC)

Dude! Model consensus straight through Miami! That's always messy.

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 21:59, 4 October 2005 (UTC)

At least none of them predict a prolonged stay over the Gulf of Mexico. 69.86.16.61 22:03, 4 October 2005 (UTC)

10:30 PM TWO is really liking this one:

RADAR DATA...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT
A CLOSED CIRCULATION HAS NOT FORMED YET WITHIN THE LARGE AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER EXTENDING FROM FLORIDA EASTWARD ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS. THIS SYSTEM IS ALREADY PRODUCING WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL
STORM FORCE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA OF THE LOWEST PRESSURE
WHICH IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR A RAPID DEVELOPMENT BUT IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH
FOR THE SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM ON
WEDNESDAY. A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE AVAILABLE TO
INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY. HEAVY RAINS
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH TOMORROW. PLEASE CONSULT
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE FOR
INFORMATION ON POSSIBLE LOCAL HAZARDS...INCLUDING FLOOD WATCHES OR
WARNINGS. 

The words of importance here:

THIS SYSTEM IS ALREADY PRODUCING WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL
STORM FORCE [...] BUT IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH FOR THE SYSTEM
TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM ON
WEDNESDAY. 

-- RattleMan 03:03, 5 October 2005 (UTC)

This may immediately become Tropical Storm Tammy, never becoming TD21 at all...I see some weird loops coming out of this storm before a move for the eastern seaboard as a major hurricane... CrazyC83 03:18, 5 October 2005 (UTC)

Let's hope that this storm, if it becomes Tammy, that it won't be another Bahama Buster and follow her sisters Katrina and Rita. User:tdwuhs

I expect that it will be Vince that will become the major hurricane this October, if 92L is going to be Tammy, it has no chance of becoming a major hurricane if it tracks the eastern seaboard because of the unfavorable upper-level winds... User:RoswellAtup

What is strangest about this situation is that just about every model I've looked at tonight forecasts a tropical system of some sort in the Gulf within a couple of days. From my own observations... 92L isn't moving anywhere fast... Stan isn't looking to turn around... and I see nothing random that's going to pop up... but all three solutions are forecast by different models. This will be a very confusing, and yet very interesting next few days. The Great Zo 05:10, 5 October 2005 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Tammy

NHC says we have TS Tammy as of 7:30 EDT. --Patteroast 11:33, 5 October 2005 (UTC)

That is interesting. I suppose they should been calling this a TD for a while, then? --69.86.16.61 13:31, 5 October 2005 (UTC)

If another depression forms before Tammy is downgraded, do they reserve the designation 21 for Tammy or do they use it? --24.176.68.73 14:06, 5 October 2005 (UTC)

It would be TD22. This would have been 21 except for the fact that it was already at 40 mph when it got the circulation - which likely means it was already at tropical storm strength while still disorganized. CrazyC83 14:58, 5 October 2005 (UTC)

Yes. Although it is never called TD21, the number will be reserved for it as the number AL212005 is used in NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY and the number 21L is used in naval warning as well as in NRL.

In the past, when subtropical cyclones are not named, a number would also be reserved. For example, in 2001, Karen became a subtropical storm after TD12, it had the number AL1301 and 13L even when it was known as subtropical storm one in the advisory.

Well, somebody jumped and created Tropical Storm Tammy already, and even began changing links to it. Should this be VFD'd or something? Somehow, I doubt this one will be a notable one other than the fact that it is a "T" storm. Donovan Ravenhull 14:50, 5 October 2005 (UTC)

Speedy merge. Unless Tammy moves east into the Gulf Stream, it has almost no chance of being notable. CrazyC83 14:58, 5 October 2005 (UTC)

Still, I'm taking Tammy on a weird path. I think it will actually spin to the east with the help of the ridge over the northern Gulf (which would slide eastward), send Tammy slowly into the Gulf Stream, and steadily strengthen to become a major hurricane en route for the North Carolina coast as a Category 3 storm... CrazyC83 16:14, 5 October 2005 (UTC)

Could Tammy be another Allison in the works? User:tdwuhs

I hope to God not. The US coast, especially the Gulf coast (which Tammy won't touch thank God) can't take much more. Has anyone noticed that Tammy, barring an impossible stunt, will be the first female-named system to not become a hurricane since Gert way back in late July (back when we were all much younger)? That's astounding. We had six hurricanes in a row with barely name-worthy tropical storm barring a 7-straight run (Maria, Nate, Ophelia, Philippe, and Stan). That hasn't been done in decades. The amazing things that this season has brought out are almost endless.

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 00:28, 6 October 2005 (UTC)

Could it be possible that Tammy could make a loop into the Gulf of Mexico and re-strengthen and hit the West Coast of Florida? Scary thought. --Revolución (talk) 00:59, 6 October 2005 (UTC)

Enough nightmare scenarios here, geez!

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 01:43, 6 October 2005 (UTC)

93L.INVEST

The Navy site lists a new invest off the east coast of the Yucatan peninsula... looks like it thinks it's gonna be Stan Jr. --Patteroast 15:13, 5 October 2005 (UTC)

We can't help but be worried about it - even if it doesn't develop, it could compound the problems and lead to potentially catastrophic flooding... CrazyC83 15:16, 5 October 2005 (UTC)

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED OVER AND EAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS MORNING.  THIS SYSTEM IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED
AT THIS TIME...BUT SURFACE PRESSURES ARE LOW IN THE AREA.  UPPER-
LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD.

North-northeast is good news for the Yucutan and Central America, but sends it into the eastern Gulf. Didn't someone mention that models showed something coming out of nowhere and headed into the Gulf? --Patteroast 15:55, 5 October 2005 (UTC)

Yup, I had mentioned that earlier, and that's a very good observation on your part Patteroast. Clearly, with Tammy, the remnant of Stan, and this new blob all in the same area, the next few days will be very, very unsettled - with no "easy" forecast in sight. Now, here's something I just noticed on visible satellite images. Load one up if you can. There is a very, very clear cyclonic circulation crossing the Yucatan peninsula from west-to-east... headed back towards the rest of the "blob" and the Caribbean sea. The Great Zo 16:24, 5 October 2005 (UTC)

Bottom line: the season clearly isn't over yet. As one of the guys on the Weather Channel said, "We are flat-out sick of the tropics".

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 00:19, 6 October 2005 (UTC)

They better get a lot of rest this winter, because I can't see 2006 being much quieter! CrazyC83 03:57, 6 October 2005 (UTC)

Well, now they are saying that its not condusive to tropical development. Somehow, I don't think I'm going to relax just yet. Donovan Ravenhull 11:08, 6 October 2005 (UTC)

94L.INVEST

And while we're at it, might as well mention this one, too. Just added as an invest, and mentioned in the NHC discussion as follows:

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED WITH A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT 1700 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. 
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO
OCCUR.

Hasn't been much coming from these waves lately, but worth mentioning. --Patteroast 15:48, 5 October 2005 (UTC)

I can't see this one developing into anything. CrazyC83 16:11, 5 October 2005 (UTC)

2005 has not been friendly to anything near Africa. The Great Zo 16:19, 5 October 2005 (UTC)

2005 has been an extremely strange season, so we should be a bit precautious in trusting climatology, Zo. ;) --tomf688^{talk} 18:56, 5 October 2005 (UTC)

Indeed it has been a strange one - and the lack of Cape-Verde-type development in 2005 is a very big part of why it's been a strange season. Thus, I'd either expect that weirdness to continue (i.e. it doesn't develop) or the thing hits Cat 3 and turns back towards Africa. The Great Zo 21:43, 5 October 2005 (UTC)

Even if it does develop, it most likely wouldn't become very powerful and would be a fish-spinner anyway. Not only has this season not been kind to Cape Verde storms, but October isn't friendly to Cape Verde storms either. bob rulz 22:34, 5 October 2005 (UTC)

This season hasn't been very kind to the Gulf coast either.

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 00:15, 6 October 2005 (UTC)

10:30 PM TWO says:

THE LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT 1450 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD IS WELL ORGANIZED
AND IS MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO
BE DEVELOPING AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.

-- RattleMan 03:21, 6 October 2005 (UTC)

Week 2

So we come into Week 2 still pretty busy...this could be a long October, extending an already-atrocious season! CrazyC83 15:14, 8 October 2005 (UTC)

23L.NONAME

95L.INVEST

Backup Navy site says 95L. -- RattleMan 21:46, 7 October 2005 (UTC)

That must be this one from the outlook:

A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT 550 MILES NORTHEAST
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. 
THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

If we get a named subtropical storm we can have hours of fun debating whether it's really a record or not (as such storms weren't named before 2002 and none are recorded in the archives before 1968).--Keith Edkins 22:13, 7 October 2005 (UTC)

It should count, all unnamed subtropical storms on record should be included in storm counts...also in 1969, there were technically 18 tropical storms and one subtropical storm, but I'd record it as 19 storms... CrazyC83 22:57, 7 October 2005 (UTC)

Actually, 1969 had 17 tropical storms, and one subtropcial storm. http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1969/index.html

As you can see, there was a total of 18 storms, one of which was subtropical. Hurricanehink 03:20, 8 October 2005 (UTC)

(Sub-)Tropical Depression 22

It's official according to NRL's backup site. Computer models also initiated on this system. Hello Vince!?!? Hurricanehink 13:32, 8 October 2005 (UTC)

Why doesn't the original NRL update for 95L.INVEST & 22L.NONAME? 200.124.33.188 14:24, 8 October 2005 (UTC)

Oops, looks like we have our third October storm, and it doesn't look like it has a chance of becoming a major storm to me... and Dr. Gray tells us that one of the three storms will be a major hurricane... A simple case of miscalculation? If were going to have Wilma in the ff. days and becoming the major hurricane that would make us neglect all Dr. Gray's forecast for this month, and I think we are going to see alpha this month too! RoswellAtup 01:04, 9 October 2005 (UTC)

I don't know what you are referring to. Dr. Gray has not issued a forecast specifically for the month of October. --Holderca1 17:13, 8 October 2005 (UTC)

Actually, he did issue one on October 3. "Our October-only forecast calls for three named storms, two hurricanes, one major hurricane and NTC activity of 30 which is well above the mean October-only average value of 18." - Obviously, that'll have to be more than 3 named storms now, since people seem confident that Vince will get named storm status (and that'd make 3 already). AySz88^-^ 23:56, 8 October 2005 (UTC)

Interesting that they call it a Subtropical Depression...what's subtropical about TD22? Anyway I don't think this is October's major storm, although I can see this becoming a Category 1 hurricane before reaching New England... CrazyC83 15:06, 8 October 2005 (UTC)

Not to be mean, but you predict a lot of bad things about many storms that weren't that bad. I know Katrina and Rita have made us gun-shy, but not everything is going to be the big one. Reminds me of Sanford and Son. Mike H (Talking is hot) 16:22, 8 October 2005 (UTC)

Although I really do think there will be a big one still to come, it won't be this one. Too far north and it's going into unstable conditions. It will have to be Wilma - or a Greek letter. CrazyC83 22:25, 8 October 2005 (UTC)

Would this really be the first time a V name was used? --Revolución (talk) 15:33, 8 October 2005 (UTC)

Yes it would. It would be only the second time we got 20 tropical storms that warrant names, and the other was 1933 when storms were not named. CrazyC83 16:18, 8 October 2005 (UTC)

@mike: There has been a great deal of wishcasting here ever since the season began, but there isn't much that can be done except to gently remind people that they are much too overzealous sometimes. Furthermore, considering the shear this system might encounter, it will be lucky if it survives for more than several days. --tomf688^{talk} 16:49, 8 October 2005 (UTC)

If this becomes Vince, we will put the Western Pacific behind in the count again. Currently, we have more overall tropical cyclones (22 as opposed to WP's 20) but we are tied in named storms (19-19). That is one of the reasons I'm cheering this storm on. The other reason being that it's likely to be a fishie. The Atlantic is like the National League of hurricanes and the West Pacific's like the American League: Atlantic's good, but the West Pacific's always better.

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 17:56, 8 October 2005 (UTC)

And don't worry about "should we count this season as having 20 storms if Vince is subtropical", they seem moderately confident that it will become a tropical storm. Nicole in 2004 was notable as the first ever named subtropical storm that never attained tropical characteristics (I think), so they usually do become tropical. --Golbez 18:06, 8 October 2005 (UTC)

It's also possible that it may become full-fledged Tropical Depression 22 before reaching tropical storm status... CrazyC83 22:22, 8 October 2005 (UTC)

Or it could dissipate, like the NHC says it's doing right now. So much for a cat-1 hurricane striking New England, eh? ;) --tomf688^{talk} 02:56, 9 October 2005 (UTC)

Yup, it dissipated. -- RattleMan 03:30, 9 October 2005 (UTC)

There is a (slight) chance of redevelopment though...I figured it would weaken on the approach anyway (it wouldn't hit as a hurricane) as the waters up there are cooler. CrazyC83 03:46, 9 October 2005 (UTC)

THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF FORMER SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO IS CENTERED ABOUT 240 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DEVELOP INTERMITTENTLY JUST SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR... UPPER-LEVEL WINDS MAY BRIEFLY BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM PASSES OVER THE WARMER GULFSTREAM. THIS MAY ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER OR NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER... WHICH WOULD ENABLE THE SYSTEM TO BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MERGES WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM JUST OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHFSAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

Anyone noticed this lately? User:tdwuhs

Yabba-Dabba-Doo! [13] -- RattleMan 05:30, 11 October 2005 (UTC)

24L.Vince

AoI:10W2A

11:30 AM TWO mentions:

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY
BETWEEN THE AZORES AND THE CANARY ISLANDS.  WHILE THIS SYSTEM IS
OVER RELATIVELY COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE
MONITORED FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SIGNS OF SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT. 

And the TWD says:

AN UPPER LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH NEAR 33N20W AND ODDLY 
ENOUGH A TIGHT CORE OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN 45 NM OF 
THE CENTER...GIVING THE SYSTEM AN ALMOST TROPICAL APPEARANCE. A 
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S AND SE OF THE LOW FROM THE WESTERN 
CANARY ISLANDS SW TO 23N30W AND IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A 
STRATOCUMULUS FIELD. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE CANARY 
AND MADEIRA ISLANDS...BUT THIS SYSTEM IS MOSTLY COLD-CORE AND IS 
NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME TROPICAL OVER THE COLDER WATERS OF THE NE 
ATLC. FARTHER E...THE DEEP TROUGH IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE 
ALL THE WAY UP TO THE STRAITS OF GIBRALTAR AND SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION HAS FORMED OVER MOROCCO AND WESTERN SAHARA 
FROM 23N-32N BETWEEN 8W-15W.

-- RattleMan 18:06, 8 October 2005 (UTC)

96L.INVEST

Now an invest, according to backup navy site. Very close to the Strait of Gibralter! [14] --tomf688^{talk} 20:00, 8 October 2005 (UTC)

I can't see this one developing into a named storm...too far off the beaten path... CrazyC83 22:23, 8 October 2005 (UTC)

Has any tropical cyclone ever affected Europe or western Africa? 22:38, 8 October 2005 (UTC)

There have been a couple that hit Ireland or Scotland as tropical storms, and I seem to dimly recall one hitting Portugal, though that may have been after it was declared extratropical. --69.86.16.61 03:02, 9 October 2005 (UTC)

...is it just me, or does it look somewhat like a HURRICANE now? It has a closed eye! [15] -- RattleMan 03:21, 9 October 2005 (UTC)

There is definitely an "eye", but judging from the nearby continents, the storm seems to be very small. --tomf688^{talk} 03:34, 9 October 2005 (UTC)

Actually... check out this page about unusual formation areas for more info on Moroccan vortices. This fits the description of one of these types of storms very well. --tomf688^{talk} 03:40, 9 October 2005 (UTC)

Very small it may be, but that's certainly a Subtropical Storm, if not a Subtropical Cyclone (this is the current naming for a hurricane-strength subtropical system, yes?). Vince formed and nobody noticed. Also, those Morrocan storms look to be even smaller than this one and are much closer to shore. --69.86.16.61 03:43, 9 October 2005 (UTC)

Maybe it's time to do something usually wasteful - sending a Hurricane Hunter into a far-away storm! I'm sure it could be declared Tropical Storm #23 (or Hurricane #23) in the postseason reports if they let this one slip out of their hands...it may look like a hurricane, but I can't see that having 75 mph (hurricane-force) winds in that system. 40 mph (tropical storm-force) maybe... CrazyC83 03:47, 9 October 2005 (UTC)

I wonder if it is something similar to those Mediteranean storms which were suspected to be tropical cyclones. I think sending a Hurricane Hunter is not wasteful. This will give us a clearer idea about this system and, perhaps, those Mediteranean storms as well.

Based on satelite pictures, I really don't know why they are so confident that it is cold-core.--Momoko 11:03, 9 October 2005 (UTC)

I've been able to make out the coordinates - it is currently located at 32.9°N, 19.8°W. Looking at the infrared, it looks even more spectacular in the northwest section (which means it is probably moving west-northwest or due west). (Click on 85V - it is a long link). Also according to the "Wind" section, it seems to be about 40-50 knots (obscured by a missed data in the center of the storm). Going by what I have, this should at least be a 35-40 knot tropical storm. Clearest 'eye' shot yet! CrazyC83 04:04, 9 October 2005 (UTC)

It's looking better now: [16] Also, someone added this in the Timeline of events (of all places; I reverted it though Golbez and I reverted it at the same time): "Unnamed cyclone. A system at 30 north/20 was shown by Trmm/85h data to have developed a clear closed eyewall. This system also shown to have a tight wind field on quickscat data. This was all supported by sab t numbers of 3.0ST. A visible eye was seen on Ir satellite the night of 9th of October. The system was slowly moving to the northeast." Should we rewrite and add this to the article, or wait for official confirmation? -- RattleMan 05:49, 9 October 2005 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Vince

It's Vince! http://152.80.49.216/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

Computer models initiated the storm for 96L. Hurricanehink 13:16, 9 October 2005 (UTC)

Congratulations everyone, we are now the first season ever to use a V name, and now officially the second-most active season on record! Also, this is the earliest 20th tropical storm by 17 days! -- RattleMan 13:24, 9 October 2005 (UTC)

Can't see this remaining a tropical storm for very long, but once extratropical, it could reach hurricane intensity... CrazyC83 15:39, 9 October 2005 (UTC)

"Congratulations"? That's a pretty odd thing to say, as I'm sure nobody here is creating hurricanes. I'll assume that was some strange, subtle form of humor. RSpeer 07:04, 10 October 2005 (UTC)

Interesting to read the preliminary report on Hurricane Ivan (1980), which developed in a similar place and time of year:

The dynamics of a development such as Ivan are not well understood. Sea-surface
temperatures during formation were about 23°C and at no time did they exceed
25.5°C. The paths of the surface and 200 mb lows were very similar...

The circumstances seem to describe Vince pretty well. Maybe theory has advanced in the intervening 25 years?--Keith Edkins 16:42, 9 October 2005 (UTC)

I believe it was mentioned above but this storm seems to have an eye. This would be the second less-than-hurricane storm that had an eye this season, the other was Arlene. Is it just me, or does Vince look a hell of a lot like the south Atlantic hurricane last March? Doesn't look as strong, but it looks about the same size, shape, and structure.

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 17:24, 9 October 2005 (UTC)

I think you meant Cindy (which probably was a Category 1 hurricane, although it will be up to the NHC to confirm it in the post-season reports), not Arlene, that had the eye (Arlene was incredibly disorganized - the west side was basically clear). It does look a lot like the south Atlantic hurricane. Has any tropical storm ever formed north of 40°N? CrazyC83 17:39, 9 October 2005 (UTC)

It's going backwards! toward Europe.... weird... [17] --Revolución (talk) 17:48, 9 October 2005 (UTC)

No, I do in fact mean Arlene. While Arlene was disorganized, it showed a hint of an eye before landfall. Look at Arlene's sat photos on the Navy site. I tried to link you directly to the picture, but the Navy site won't display the URL in the box [mutters a curse]. [18].

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 20:17, 9 October 2005 (UTC)

Yep, Arlene had an eye right before landfall. It can be seen here, here, and here.200.74.188.7 17:18, 10 October 2005 (UTC)

Hurricane Vince

NHC now reports Vince as a hurricane. Wow! [19] -- RattleMan 20:55, 9 October 2005 (UTC)

This season just gets stranger and stranger...according to the discussion: "IF IT LOOKS LIKE A HURRICANE... IT PROBABLY IS... DESPITE ITS ENVIRONMENT AND UNUSUAL LOCATION." It might have been a hurricane since last night, when someone here caught it...the NHC is lucky that it stayed afloat, otherwise it might have been one giant embarrasment to miss a storm (which would have had to be declared Hurricane #23 in the post-season analysis). CrazyC83 21:49, 9 October 2005 (UTC)

Forecast has it making a landfall in northwestern Spain and Portugal , and it could possibly make a second landfall in France, or it could hit the UK or Ireland if it makes a sudden move to the left. --Revolución (talk) 21:55, 9 October 2005 (UTC)

That has got to be the strangest location for a hurricane to form. Not only that, the NHC almost missed it! It's probably been a hurricane for a day or two already. Someone should look for a picture of it for the article, both for balancing purposes and for having an image of such an unusual storm (almost as notable as Cyclone Catarina, I think). --69.86.16.61 22:58, 9 October 2005 (UTC)

There's a nice but raw image here: context 323k image AySz88^-^ 00:09, 10 October 2005 (UTC)

Is it a hurricane or a polar low? It would seem that a warm core storm could form anywhere if the temperature differential existed. Convection is a product of temperature (atmospheric and SSTS), humidity and vapor pressure, not just SSTS, which, for some reason, is the only thing a lot of people are focusing on. Warm core cyclones resembling hurricanes have existed for years in upper latitudes, called polar lows. I really don't think there is a fundamental difference in these types of storms. I am not surprised by this. --Mm35173 01:41, 10 October 2005 (UTC)

AySz88, thanks for the sat photos! Don't kid yourself, those are good-quality images. I've been dealing with nothing but crap since this morning. Doesn't this[20] look a lot like this [21]? I found that really curious. Of course the latter and more famous storm got a bit stronger and better organized, but still.

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 02:29, 10 October 2005 (UTC)

Speaking of which, that image of Vince is better than the one up right now. Perhaps it should be used as the image. --69.86.16.61 03:14, 10 October 2005 (UTC)

Is Vince related to the remnants of tropical depression 19? can anyone answer me? -- RoswellAtup 01:05, 10 October 2005 (UTC)

So we now have vince.... the third storm for this October... I thought Dr Gray says that there would be three named storms and one major hurricane... no where the heck is the major hurricane among this three? a simple case of miscalculations? -- RoswellAtup 01:05, 10 October 2005 (UTC)

Which is much smaller in size? hurricane vince or cyclone tracy? -- RoswellAtup 01:05, 10 October 2005 (UTC)

Roswell... the experts make educated guesses, nothing more. They have little idea what will actually happen, since the tropics are still quite the enigma (as can be seen with Vince). Take any prediction with a grain of salt. --tomf688^{talk} 18:54, 10 October 2005 (UTC)

We could possibly have a tropical cyclone hit Europe. That's unprecidented! It's expected to make landfall sometime early tomorrow morning. Even if it does become extratropical just before landfall, it's still incredible. I mean, I can't believe were even talking about this: a potential tropical storm hitting Europe.

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 03:14, 11 October 2005 (UTC)

It is pretty amazing. Even the NHC agrees: "WELL... THE LONG AND STRANGE 2005 HURRICANE SEASON CONTINUES AS TROPICAL STORM VINCE BEARS DOWN ON THE SOUTHERN IBERIAN PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN MOROCCO" [22]. They also to be predicting that it will make landfall before becoming extratropical. Completely unprecedented, and, if Vince does make landfall before becoming extratropical, it deserves its own article. --69.86.16.61 03:36, 11 October 2005 (UTC)

from the NHC site:

THE HISTORICAL RECORD SHOWS NO TROPICAL CYCLONE EVER MAKING LANDFALL

ON THE IBERIAN PENINSULA. BASED ON SURFACE REPORTS FROM FARO

PORTUGAL...THE CENTER PASSED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE COAST OF

PORTUGAL...BEFORE BECOMING THE FIRST TROPICAL CYCLONE TO MAKE

LANDFALL IN SPAIN.

i. e. looks like Vince is another record-setter. 80.178.189.213 08:54, 11 October 2005 (UTC)

I would agree with an article split on this one. There is an off chance it may get retired as well. Wouldn't be the first time the WMO retired a storm name for being unique rather than devastating. --Holderca1 12:41, 11 October 2005 (UTC)

Really, Holderca? I'd be very excited to hear about it, any examples. With regard to an article split, if someone can put together a good article and not just copy and paste the section from the main article. A good article was done on notable, but not terribly destructive Tropical Storm Odette. Hurricane Faith also has an article on it (by me in fact) and it wasn't terribly destructive. There are plenty of other examples, so if someone can put together an interesting and good quality article, by all means go for it.

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 13:15, 11 October 2005 (UTC)

Typhoon Vamei in December of 2001 had its name retired mainly due to its unusual location of formation (only 100 miles north of the equator) and making landfall where typhoons normally don't hit (Singapore). Sounds very similar to Vince, doesn't it? --Holderca1 16:04, 11 October 2005 (UTC)

Yea, what hurricanes have been retired just for being unusual? I have an idea! why don't we make an article listing all the unusual storms. Fableheroesguild 13:26, 11 October 2005 (UTC)

I wouldn't expect Vince to be retired - they don't normally get retired for being unusual. However, I don't see why it can't get the main article Hurricane Vince, after all there is no other disambiguation and what are the chances we'll reach that in 2011? If the date should be placed in, it should go to Hurricane Vince (2005) with the main article redirecting to that page. CrazyC83 15:16, 11 October 2005 (UTC)

I've created the page Hurricane Vince, with a heavy emphasis on the peculiarities of the storm, including its controversial development. (I left out the year in the name for now since, while it has almost no chance at being retired, there is no disambiguation and what are the chances of reaching it in 2011?) CrazyC83 15:59, 11 October 2005 (UTC)

Crazy C, the western Pacific has a different retiring system than the Atlantic, E. Pacific and C. Pacific. The names there are retired at the discretion of the country that submitted it. Typhoons that killed hundreds have not been retired and storms that didn't do much damage got retired. Fable, the best place to list unusual stuff is in the List of notable tropical cyclones.

E. Brown Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 16:32, 11 October 2005 (UTC)

The names in NW Pacific are retired at the discretion of WMO Typhoon Committee, not the country that submitted it. The replacement of names may be requested by the country/region being affetced, the country/region that submitted the name or any other country/region that objects the name.

Typhoons that killed hundreds have not been retired is simply because the country/region being affected did not request for the retirement of name.Momoko 10:14, 12 October 2005 (UTC)

97L.INVEST

The backup Navy site says there's a new invest in the Antilles. 200.74.188.7 17:02, 10 October 2005 (UTC)

That's looking like Wilma to me [23], but the NHC says the winds are too unfavorable. After Vince, I'd expect anything, however. --69.86.16.61 03:39, 11 October 2005 (UTC)

Who cares about the old rules - it's the 2005 season after all! The only question mark that remains is will peace finally come in November, or will it be pure hell right down to the wire (and possibly even beyond the boundary)? CrazyC83 04:00, 11 October 2005 (UTC)

It looks good until you consider that the low pressure circulation center is that thin swirl over 150 miles northwest of the deep convection you see there.

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 13:18, 11 October 2005 (UTC)

What is the boundary? I know the season ends November 30th, but at what date would they actually stop adding storms to the current list and start with the 'A' storm for next year. Is it January 1? Naraht 15:46, 11 October 2005 (UTC)

Yes. January 1 is the start of the next year, so logically they would stop using this list to name storms on that date.

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 16:26, 11 October 2005 (UTC)

That would be one strange storm if Tropical Storm or Hurricane Alberto of 2006 developed in January, when the waters are seldom warm enough for development and wind shear is extreme... CrazyC83 16:38, 11 October 2005 (UTC)

Have you forgotten about Hurricane Alice, which became a hurricane on December 31, 1954? --tomf688^{talk} 20:03, 11 October 2005 (UTC)

Look at the UKMET model - is it out to lunch or what? It holds the system back, then gradually intensifies it, then once north of 40°N, BOOM! It drops down at least 30 mb (those charts tend to underestimate pressure so I'd say at least 960 mb based on my estimate) - to a major hurricane at 42°N before landfall in Nova Scotia! Is it even possible for a storm to enter rapid intensification at that latitude? [24] CrazyC83 02:06, 13 October 2005 (UTC)

Maybe over the Gulf Stream. --69.86.16.61 16:30, 13 October 2005 (UTC)

If that is correct, we are seeing another wierd storm like Vince on our hands. Fableheroesguild 04:01, 14 October 2005 (UTC)

Areas of Interest

AoI:10W2B - Large Outlook

I have yet to see a TWO with this much text on it this season. [25] Talk about active tropics! --tomf688^{talk} 22:00, 6 October 2005 (UTC)

Pasting for posterity:

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE TROPICS ARE ACTIVE TODAY BUT NONE OF THE SYSTEMS POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.

SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO CUBA. THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR ANY SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT. DATA FROM THE CUBAN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE INDICATE THAT UP TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE BEEN MEASURED IN PORTIONS OF CUBA TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD.

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED A LITTLE BIT MORE THAN 1000 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LIMITED AT THIS TIME BUT SOME DEVELOPMENT IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AND A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA HAVE INCREASED OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORY ON THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TAMMY CENTERED ABOUT 75 MILES WEST OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA....UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT31 KWNH.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

Wow, amazing TWO. -- RattleMan 22:42, 6 October 2005 (UTC)

The first two of those are 93L and 94L.INVEST. But the other areas weren't mentioned yet. --Patteroast 23:35, 6 October 2005 (UTC)

Makes you wonder at what point they would say there isn't any "elsewhere" left!--Keith Edkins 08:05, 7 October 2005 (UTC)

AoI:10W2C - Florida Coast Oct 14

Look at this. Note: link is dated. Content will change. It appears that a 60-km or so wide mesocyclone has formed southeast of Melbourne, FL! It sure doesn't look baroclinic to me... has some nice symmetry to it. --24.176.68.73 18:30, 14 October 2005 (UTC)

Just scattered showers, waste of space here.

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 22:32, 14 October 2005 (UTC)

Agreed. --Revolución (talk) 23:15, 14 October 2005 (UTC)

Week 3

25L.Wilma

See Talk:2005 Atlantic hurricane season/Wilma

Nothing else?

If it weren't for the potentially-devastating Wilma, all would be quite tranquil right now...how long will it last? It might be a little while before we officially go Greek...there isn't even another invest out there! (Of course, it may be hard to spot with all eyes on Wilma) CrazyC83 22:03, 18 October 2005 (UTC)

It's October. September and the peak of the season are over; we won't always be monitoring something any more. --69.86.16.61 22:07, 18 October 2005 (UTC)

Geeze, there's a huge hurricane getting ready to devastate anything in its way, and you're saying it's "tranquil"... --Revolución (talk) 00:50, 19 October 2005 (UTC)

Calm down, Revolución. That's not what he said. —BazookaJoe 01:06, 19 October 2005 (UTC)

Maybe all the other potential invests are trying to help out Wilma? This isn't necessarily a good thing though...it would give the water a chance to rebuild and the eastern Caribbean is still ripe for a fourth (or fifth if Emily is upgraded) Category 5 hurricane...with all the monsters this year, could we see the first ever November Category 5 hurricane? If Emily could reach it (if it is upgraded) in July, what's to say it can't be done in November? CrazyC83 15:34, 19 October 2005 (UTC)

26L.Alpha

99L.INVEST

The NHC is decidedly un-interested in this system (for obvious reasons) but it's been declared an Invest as per the Navy site. It's currently passing through the Lesser Antilles. The Great Zo 13:12, 21 October 2005 (UTC)

They have been mentioning it in the TWO the past several days. --Holderca1 14:46, 21 October 2005 (UTC)

That wave is marching closer and closer to Wilma, and the closer it gets, the less likely development will be. If Wilma turns east or stalls, 99L should get sheared out by the outflow as it approaches. If, however, it got its act together today, it might be in business.--Mm35173 15:12, 21 October 2005 (UTC)

Could it get sucked into Wilma? What would happen if it did? CrazyC83 16:12, 21 October 2005 (UTC)

It would have to get quite a bit closer before it can happen. A stronger system can absorb a weaker system if they are close enough together. Hurricane Iris gobbled up tropical storm Karen in 1995 [26], and this year saw two similar events: hurricane Max absorbing tropical storm Lidia in the Pacific about a month ago, about the same time that a large low pressure system absorbed tropical storm Philippe. B.Wind 17:50, 21 October 2005 (UTC)

NHC getting interested.

A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND WINDS GUSTING TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO. THIS SYSTEM SHOWS SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 15 MPH.

Could this be the next one (I won't say it in case I jynx it)? Hurricanehink 22:19, 21 October 2005 (UTC)

I don't blame the NHC for not really putting emphasize on it. They want to focus on Wilma and at the same time praying that nothing will become of this new investigation. tdwuhs

Agreed, I can't see this blob developing into much. If it is notable for anything, all it will do is help out the big fish out there, and it will give Wilma an extra arm... CrazyC83 05:06, 22 October 2005 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 25

TD 25 says NRL [27]. Could this be Alpha?!?!?! Hurricanehink 13:12, 22 October 2005 (UTC)

Here are the Computer Models.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FIVE (AL252005) ON 20051022 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...

051022 1200 051023 0000 051023 1200 051024 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 15.8N 67.5W 16.8N 69.9W 18.1N 72.1W 20.0N 74.0W

BAMM 15.8N 67.5W 17.1N 69.9W 18.4N 71.8W 20.1N 73.8W

A98E 15.8N 67.5W 16.5N 70.0W 17.3N 72.2W 18.9N 74.2W

LBAR 15.8N 67.5W 16.9N 69.7W 18.5N 71.6W 20.5N 73.4W

SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 41KTS 46KTS

DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 33KTS 38KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...

051024 1200 051025 1200 051026 1200 051027 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 23.3N 75.4W 33.8N 71.3W 43.7N 53.4W 37.4N 25.8W

BAMM 23.2N 75.3W 32.3N 72.0W 41.4N 56.2W 39.8N 29.0W

A98E 22.4N 74.8W 28.2N 70.9W 34.7N 59.6W 37.7N 37.4W

LBAR 23.5N 74.1W 37.9N 66.0W .0N .0W .0N .0W

SHIP 51KTS 54KTS 51KTS 34KTS

DSHP 43KTS 45KTS 43KTS 25KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 15.8N LONCUR = 67.5W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 13KT

LATM12 = 15.1N LONM12 = 65.0W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 = 14KT

LATM24 = 14.3N LONM24 = 62.3W

WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Hurricanehink 13:24, 22 October 2005 (UTC)

...Geez! This season is crazy. I have to think it WILL become Alpha...O_O -- RattleMan 13:25, 22 October 2005 (UTC)

Fortunately the models seem to be in good agreement in terms of the forecast track: out to sea. [28] Nevertheless, storms in the formulative stages have a tendency to do whatever the hell they want to. --tomf688^{talk} 13:38, 22 October 2005 (UTC)

"Out To Sea" to you may mean something completely different for Haiti, a nation with a history of massive death tolls from weak storms. What happens if 50-MPH Tropical Storm Alpha kills 2,000? How do you retire a greek letter? The Great Zo 14:36, 22 October 2005 (UTC)

The NHC said that they would simply drop the letter - the next 22nd storm of a season would be Beta rather than Alpha. --69.86.16.61 15:24, 22 October 2005 (UTC)

Thanks for the info, and I echo Eric below in wanting to see where you heard that. Just think of the meteorological complications of retiring "Alpha". The "specific volume" form of the Ideal Gas Law will never be the same. Sororities and Fraternities everywhere will freak out, wondering what to re-name themselves. The famous Christ quote in the bible will be changed to "I am the Beta and the Omega". And some n00b will come in here to this talk page and start speculating on which alphabet we'll use once the Greek list is exhausted. The Great Zo 17:45, 22 October 2005 (UTC)

I can vouch for him that there exists a source for that. However, I just can't find it! I remember it was a Q&A and the article posted as a picture, so it's difficult to search for it on Google. I'm asking around on wunderground. AySz88^-^ 18:02, 22 October 2005 (UTC)

Do they retire tropical storms, even if they kill a lot of people? There have been some hurricanes with high death tolls that did not get retired. Though at this point, the possibility of a greek letter (other than Alpha) developing into a retirable name is definitely there. PK9 15:02, 23 October 2005 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Allison is the only non-hurricane to have its name retired. -- 69.86.16.61 19:57, 23 October 2005 (UTC)

The NHC says that it will get sucked into Wilma late in the forecast period. This will be neat: we might get to see a little Fugiwhara dance out in the Atlantic, east of Georgia... It is going to be complicated, though. Wilma will be surfing the eastern side of a cold front and will be bordering extratropical. If the front moves slowly, all of that stuff could make a mess up in New England. --Mm35173 15:14, 22 October 2005 (UTC)

The NHC says that with the current trend, strengthening to a tropical storm is likely. That's a bit disconcerting. NHC rarely says something is 'likely' even when it is. They usually say 'possible'. 69.86... where did you get that info, that's interesting?

Hurricane Eric - my dropsonde 16:40, 22 October 2005 (UTC)

Damn it! Damn it! Damn it! It's headed right for Haiti. I think this could be another Jeanne disaster if it develops. --Revolución (talk) 17:07, 22 October 2005 (UTC)

My fears exactly. Let's keep them in our thoughts and prayers. —BazookaJoe 17:51, 22 October 2005 (UTC)

It's moving fairly quickly. Let's hope that continues.

Hurricane Eric - my dropsonde 18:29, 22 October 2005 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Alpha

It is now listed as Alpha at the navy site.--Jyril 19:09, 22 October 2005 (UTC)

...everyone, history has been made...the records, shattered...no words... -- RattleMan 19:12, 22 October 2005 (UTC)

The records have been broken ... again. Freiberg 01:17, 23 October 2005 (UTC)

While I have no doubt the next NHC update will reflect the upgrade to TS Alpha, is using the Navy site as a baseline correct? The NHC is the official forecaster of Atlantic storms, not the Navy, and the NHC is still calling it a depression. ColdCaffeine 19:45, 22 October 2005 (UTC)

I was about to mention that too ... I'm sure the NHC will call it as such ... however the Navy is not the official site .... NHC is. SargeAbernathy 19:54, 22 October 2005 (UTC)

The Navy gets their info from the NHC. --Holderca1 19:51, 22 October 2005 (UTC)

Ah! True True. I see the "From NHC" link above the storm. Why would NHC give the Navy a heads up before the general public though? SargeAbernathy 19:54, 22 October 2005 (UTC)

Because the Navy handles things like hurricane hunters and other things, I think. The Navy is a major partner in all this. --Golbez 20:00, 22 October 2005 (UTC)

The NHC would not pass the information directly to the Navy, it would be passed up the chain and then over to the DoD. The DoD controls the hurricane hunters which are Air Force Reserve assets. The Navy provides storm information to all DoD assets. The projected path charts you see on the Navy site is what DoD installations use to determine what actions to take to prepare for the storm. --Holderca1 20:11, 22 October 2005 (UTC)

HA! http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200525_model.gif I always love these early model predictions .... One second it ends up in Maine, next prediction it's in Istanbul or something :) SargeAbernathy 19:58, 22 October 2005 (UTC)

But it still goes over Hispaniola, that seems inevitable. Bad thing. --Jyril 20:06, 22 October 2005 (UTC)

What can you say - this is unbelieveable. Who knows what that fraternity named Alpha will do? Maybe they just want to wait for Wilma to pick itself up? CrazyC83 21:58, 22 October 2005 (UTC)

Not sure what you mean there but this is incredible. The 1933 record stood for 72 years. I'm in a state of disbelief right now (and so is the NHC, I would imagine). This season has also set another record: Most records broken in a season. Don't know what the old record was, but this one certainly broke it.

Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Dennis, Emily, Franklin, Gert, Harvey, Irene, Jose, Katrina, Lee, Maria, Nate, Ophelia, Philippe, Rita, Stan, Tammy, Vince, Wilma, and Alpha.

You all (talking to the storms, stupid, I know) have helped make this season one of the most infamous on record. Satan salutes you (we despise you). Congratulations fellow Wikipedians, we all now live in a world gone completely insane.

Hurricane Eric - my dropsonde 00:47, 23 October 2005 (UTC)

And it probably isn't done yet. The sorority Beta will want to come out to play sooner or later (I am alternating male/female club names based on how they would have been otherwise)... CrazyC83 02:20, 23 October 2005 (UTC)

Let's all hope Alpha isn't a Jeanne wannabe. Let's keep the people of Hispaniola in our prayers. tdwuhs

Advisotry for Alpha from NHC

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM ALPHA (AL252005) ON 20051022 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS... 051022 1800 051023 0600 051023 1800 051024 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON BAMD 16.5N 68.5W 17.7N 70.8W 19.3N 72.9W 22.0N 74.5W BAMM 16.5N 68.5W 18.0N 70.7W 19.7N 72.3W 22.4N 73.5W A98E 16.5N 68.5W 18.1N 70.5W 19.4N 72.4W 21.3N 73.6W LBAR 16.5N 68.5W 17.9N 70.3W 19.7N 71.9W 22.3N 73.2W SHIP 35KTS 41KTS 47KTS 51KTS DSHP 35KTS 41KTS 33KTS 40KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS... 051024 1800 051025 1800 051026 1800 051027 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON BAMD 26.6N 74.4W 38.9N 64.8W 37.7N 40.3W 28.1N 37.8W BAMM 26.9N 72.9W 39.1N 63.4W 39.8N 40.8W 30.2N 33.3W A98E 26.0N 72.2W 34.2N 63.9W 38.6N 46.5W 30.4N 31.4W LBAR 26.5N 72.8W 42.1N 57.3W .0N .0W .0N .0W SHIP 54KTS 57KTS 57KTS 39KTS DSHP 43KTS 46KTS 46KTS 29KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS... LATCUR = 16.5N LONCUR = 68.5W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 13KT LATM12 = 15.4N LONM12 = 66.4W DIRM12 = 287DEG SPDM12 = 13KT LATM24 = 14.7N LONM24 = 63.6W WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 30KT CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D RD34NE = 40NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 40NM

ACE calcs

Adv.	Date	Time	Maximum Sustained Winds (kt)	ACE (104 kt2)
2	22 Oct	5 pm EDT	35	0.1225
3		11 pm EDT	45	0.2025
4	23 Oct	5 am EDT	45	0.2025
5		11 am EDT	Tropical Depression	N/A
6		5 pm EDT	Tropical Depression	N/A
7		11 pm EDT	Tropical Depression	N/A
Total				0.5275

Question... the forecast shows Alpha dipping below storm stregnth, and then regaining stroms strength later. Are the wind speeds from when Alpha is below storm stregnth included in the storm's ACE? Tompw 22:51, 22 October 2005 (UTC)

My understanding was that ACE only accumulates at those 6-hour intervals when the system is at tropical storm or hurricane strength. Periods spent as a TD are ignored for ACE purposes. --DavidK93 02:18, 23 October 2005 (UTC)

Yes, it is calculated when it is above tropical storm strength. As far as the extratropical, it is not included and the NHC discontinues the advisories at that point anyway. The only question I have on it is, typically the last advisory issued says it has become extratropical. Although at that point NOAA will update their page with all the ACE values and it would be a moot point. --Holderca1 15:32, 23 October 2005 (UTC)

Now what if it regains TS strength at an intermediate advisory and then loses it 3 hours later?--Louis E./12.144.5.2 21:25, 23 October 2005 (UTC)

In this case, it depends on the best track data. If the 6-hourly best track data show that it regains TS strength, then it should be included.

In fact, our usual practice is to use the intensity in the best track data to do the calculation. As the intermediate advisory is issued at 00Z, 06Z, 12Z or 18Z (the time used in best track data), the system may be treated as a tropical storm in the best track data.Momoko 08:45, 24 October 2005 (UTC)

Is everybody in Haiti & Dominican Republic okay? --Revolución (talk) 22:02, 23 October 2005 (UTC)

I Googled it and one site reports 3 dead, another only 1 and several report widespread flooding. Hurricane Eric - my dropsonde 03:23, 24 October 2005 (UTC)

91L.INVEST (Erroneous)

The Backup Navy site has a 91L invest on their site, and it's very close to where TD25 is, but the image is centered a little further south. What could this mean? -- RattleMan 17:35, 22 October 2005 (UTC)

It must be some sort of error. TD25 is TD25 with nothing else really "there", and also, that would mean that they skipped 90L, since TD25 formed out of 99L. The Great Zo 17:42, 22 October 2005 (UTC)

I don't know if I would trust it.... It also lists TD25 as 25L.TWENTY-FIVE, which I heard means that they consider it a yet-unnamed-by-NHC tropical storm already. AySz88^-^ 17:44, 22 October 2005 (UTC)

No I don't think that is what it means, click on the all storms button and you will see that they have the following storms 10L.TEN, 19L.NINETEEN, and 22L.TWENTY-TWO. It just looks like the backup site uses the number rather than NONAME as the primary site does. --Holderca1 18:18, 22 October 2005 (UTC)

I say it is an error. The Primary Navy site makes no mention of it. --Holderca1 18:14, 22 October 2005 (UTC)

It's off the backup site now as well. An error, it 'twas. --tomf688^{talk} 03:12, 24 October 2005 (UTC)

Week 4

27L.Beta

Beyond Wilmalpha

In my glances around the internet, I don't believe anyone else has noted this - but nearly every major model is calling for development in the southwest Caribbean in the 3-6 day time span, and this has been consistent over the last few model runs. Otherwise things look quiet but as Wilma writes her last chapter, this may be where our eyes should turn. The Great Zo 12:19, 25 October 2005 (UTC)

Could that be Beta on the horizon? Then again, Wilma seems to still have more to write about... CrazyC83 16:15, 25 October 2005 (UTC)

I don't want anything else to develop. I had betted on Stan being the last, but that didn't work out. So I thought it would be more reasonable to say Beta, and now we're almost to that! I'm getting tired of having to change my prediction. ;-) But seriously, I think there needs to be some peace in the Atlantic for once. --Revolución (talk) 17:27, 25 October 2005 (UTC)

Heck, I originally picked Beta thinking that we wouldn't get close. I picked it just to pick it. Now it is possible to go past Beta. --Holderca1 17:37, 25 October 2005 (UTC)

I'll be changing my vote to Zeta if Gamma forms. And if it gets past Zeta, I'm going to have a heart attack... --Revolución (talk) 17:39, 25 October 2005 (UTC)

A sobering note. The Hurricane Season doesn't officially end until the end of november. We still have a month to go yet!

Does anyone else remember 08L.NONAME (1991)? Wilma is getting wrapped up in a monster Nor'easter. This situation looks very similar. If the extratropical low gets hung out over the Gulf Stream, weird things can and do happen.--Mm35173 18:55, 25 October 2005 (UTC)

I was thinking we might have something like that happen, too, but it's looking like Wilma's moisture isn't going to be brought into the Nor'easter after all. Which is a good thing, because it could be a monster if it did...

On the other hand, the TWO is now mentioning two systems, the first of which was already mentioned by The Great Zo. --Patteroast 19:04, 25 October 2005 (UTC)

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA.  SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ANOTHER AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-
MOVING TROPICAL WAVE...IS LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.

Looking at satellite, the second area is sheared straight to heck. The first area (which Jeff Masters of WUnderground mentioned a few hours after my post here) needs watching, especially because it isn't often the NHC introduces a system to the TWO with "development of this system is possible". The Great Zo 19:33, 25 October 2005 (UTC)

That second one should die before it does anything, although that first area has Beta written all over it (although I can't see it getting to high intensity). If a weird Perfect Storm-style hurricane were to develop out of the nor'easter, would they go ahead and name it Beta (or Gamma), or leave it as 26L.NONAME (Hurricane #26)? CrazyC83 22:24, 25 October 2005 (UTC)

As of the 10/25 @ 530 p.m. TWO, Dr. Avila changed the Caribbean formation bit to "CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO." Sounds like a depression is likely. This could be Beta. Looks like it has more potential than the Lesser Antilles storm. ColdCaffeine 23:15, 25 October 2005 (UTC)

@Crazy: It would have to be tropical or subtropical for it to receive a name. --tomf688^{talk} 00:46, 26 October 2005 (UTC)

I believe he was referring to the "Perfect Storm" which spawned a new tropical system (a hurricane, in fact) that the NHC opted to leave unnamed - to avoid public confusion. If something were to develop in the same way out of the Wilmalpha Nor'Easter, they could opt to do the same again. Of course, that won't happen this time. The Great Zo 02:40, 26 October 2005 (UTC)

90L.INVEST

Here we go again! -- RattleMan 01:30, 26 October 2005 (UTC)

Oh my! Toto, I don't think were in the Atlantic any more! tdwuhs

Looks more like the Western Pacific don't it. -- Hurricane Eric - my dropsonde 19:03, 26 October 2005 (UTC)

Beta, anyone? This is getting out of hand!!! CrazyC83 02:07, 26 October 2005 (UTC)

Just curious... is there a reason you seem to get giddy with every single invest that comes along? I'm a bit of a hurricane-phile (did I just make that word up?) but enough is enough after a while. Sure this season has been unique and interesting to document but honestly there comes a point where you just hope this season slows down a little bit. We're not supposed to see this kind of activity in October, let alone the pace the entire season has been setting. I'm just wondering why the enthusiasm every time a wave shows up. --RPIRED 12:34, 26 October 2005 (UTC)

Has anyone noticed that the Atlantic now is much more active than the east and west pacific? How freaky can you get? RoswellAtup

The basins have often worked in opposite of each other. In 1983, the Pacifc exhausted it's naming list, while the Atlantic only had four named storms the entire season. --tomf688^{talk} 12:18, 26 October 2005 (UTC)

That is not always true at all, 2003 hurricane seasons in both basins were tied at 16 RoswellAtup

16 is only slightly above average for the Eastern Pacific though... CrazyC83 15:56, 26 October 2005 (UTC)

Looking better. Recon is set to check it out in a couple days. Hurricanehink 14:24, 26 October 2005 (UTC)

Honestly, between satellite and quikscat, this thing looks like it's going to be a depression sooner rather than later. The Great Zo 16:14, 26 October 2005 (UTC)

NHC says conditions are favorable for development. There is a chance that it could hit Central America before it develops. -- Hurricane Eric - my dropsonde 19:02, 26 October 2005 (UTC)

OH TOTO!

RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 140 MILES EAST OF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA. IF THIS DEVELOPING TREND CONTINUES ADVISORIES COULD BE INITIATED AT ANY TIME. HOWEVER...EVEN IF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DOES NOT OCCUR...THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST OR NORTHWEST BRINGING TORRENTIAL RAINS AND SQUALLS TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...PRIMARILY OVER COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

tdwuhs

Tropical Depression 26

The Navy Site now lists it at 26L.NONAME... --Patteroast 01:17, 27 October 2005 (UTC)

No surprise. However this one looks like it will be a quick landfall, probably at tropical storm strength. One thing this might do is cross into the Pacific though... CrazyC83 01:53, 27 October 2005 (UTC)

The forecast I saw in the TWO suggest a northwestward drift, which seems more likely to take it over Nicaragua and back over water in the NW Caribbean, rather than the Pacific. --DavidK93 02:25, 27 October 2005 (UTC)

Odd, the Backup Navy site has an additional 92L for this system, most likely the same problem with TD25 and the erroneous 90L. -- RattleMan 02:38, 27 October 2005 (UTC)

Uh-oh this is predicted to go into Central America! Let's hope it's not like Stan or worse Mitch! Beta you better be tame! tdwuhs

[Cocks gun. Puts gun to head and pulls trigger. Blood and brains spill onto floor. Sad music plays.] Tell me I'm dreaming. Will someone please tell me that? Tell me the 26th tropical depression of the season has not formed. The weathered faces of the NHC guys probably have several more wrinkles than they had in May. I'm about ready to go clinically insane here. This is looking more and more like a Western Pacific season and the West Pacific, meanwhile, is quiet. What's wrong with this picture? I cannot believe this is happening. I just cannot believe it. -- Hurricane Eric - my dropsonde 03:19, 27 October 2005 (UTC)

Two things worry me from the discussion:

"WE WERE NOT SUCCESSFUL IN CONTACTING THE COLOMBIAN WEATHER SERVICE TO COORDINATE THE WARNINGS"

... and ...

"THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFDL WHICH MAKES THE DEPRESSION A 94-KNOT HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL."

Both situations aren't positive at all. I assume the Colombians coordinate warnings for Central America, so this means the people in the areas that will be affected are going to have even less warning than usual. Also, this thing could be a hurricane! Very very troublesome indeed. --tomf688^{talk} 03:25, 27 October 2005 (UTC)

I seriously doubt that this will become a hurricane, but it's not impossible. -- E. Brown

No, the tiny islands that they're mentioning in the advisory are owned by Colombia. bob rulz 04:56, 27 October 2005 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Beta

Now listed as Beta. Ajm81 07:07, 27 October 2005 (UTC)

I would have never thought we would have gotten this far...Jane, stop this crazy thing! -- RattleMan 07:11, 27 October 2005 (UTC)

Damn it, Stop you crazy season! Although Alpha wasn't as bad as feared, this is another section of the world that could see major damage from even a tropical storm. SargeAbernathy 09:18, 27 October 2005 (UTC)

From Discussion #2: "SINCE THE 36 HOUR FORECAST IS NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH... IT IS CERTANLY POSSIBLE THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR WITHIN 36 HOURS IN THE AREAS ALREADY UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. HOWEVER...WE HAVE NOT YET BEEN ABLE TO CONTACT NICARAGUA REGARDING THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE WATCH IN ADDITION TO THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING." Rather worrying stuff. The wind chart from advisory #1 implies greater than 20% chance of becoming a hurricane. Tompw 13:39, 27 October 2005 (UTC)

The GFDL brings it to Cat 2 at landfall and the Canadian model is on crack takes it up towards Florida. Obviously, these are the outliers - a general concensus would be a strong tropical storm or weak hurricane to hit Nicaragua. The conditions are insanely ripe, so if it hangs off the coast a bit longer, who knows how rapid it could ramp itself up. The Great Zo 13:40, 27 October 2005 (UTC)

Christ, I thought people were kidding when they guess in Greeks. Good God this can't be happening. The West Pacific seems to have moved to the Atlantic. Let's hope it's not here to stay. I feel like I'm in a car going 150 mph with a murderous psycopath at the wheel. This season has drifted well past insane. -- Hurricane Eric - my dropsonde 13:43, 27 October 2005 (UTC)

Dude, could you not mention "150 mph," please? Might as well chant "Bloody Mary" into a mirror at midnight. --DavidK93 14:06, 27 October 2005 (UTC)

It's better than "150 knots" though...although I'm sure this sorority wants to get there, they don't have much time (thank God!) CrazyC83 15:32, 27 October 2005 (UTC)

...TROPICAL STORM BETA STRENGTHENING AND RE-LOCATED EASTWARD...NEW WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED...

doesn't sound good -there is an 85 KT forecast nowcrandles 14:53, 27 October 2005 (UTC)

60 mph as of 2 pm so most of the strengthening forecast for twelve hours has happened in three.I tend to think of Alpha,Beta,etc. as one co-ed fraternity/sorority of which the storms are members...here's hoping pledge week is a dud!--Louis E./le@put.com/12.144.5.2 18:47, 27 October 2005 (UTC)

I alternate it as if the gender run continued...like Vince (M) - Wilma (F) - Alpha (M) - Beta (F) - Gamma (M) - Delta (F) - etc. CrazyC83 19:12, 27 October 2005 (UTC)

Yes,but Beta is not a sorority all by herself,she's a sister of the Greek Letter Society.--Louis E./le@put.com/12.144.5.2 19:50, 27 October 2005 (UTC)

What's with the Beta sorority jokes? Sororities either have two or three Greek letters. Is there some "joke" I missed? Mike H (Talking is hot) 20:44, 27 October 2005 (UTC)

It could be a short-form being used for something like Beta Beta Beta... CrazyC83 22:11, 27 October 2005 (UTC)

See above. Basically, during the initial discussion about the Greek letters, someone started calling them fraternities. However, that would be sexist so CrazyC decided to continue the alternation of genders, hence the Alpha fraternity and the Beta sorority. PK9 23:13, 27 October 2005 (UTC)

But my point is that the hurricanes are (like the ones with people's names) best considered as individuals who are members of a co-ed fraternity/sorority.Not each of them being a collective group.--Louis E./le@put.com/12.144.5.2 23:50, 27 October 2005 (UTC)

...ALTHOUGH IT WOULD NOT BE ANY SURPRISE IF BETA GOT STRONGER AND BECAME A MAJOR HURRICANE.

Ugh, with this season, I don't know what is a surprise any longer. Titoxd^(?!?) 20:57, 27 October 2005 (UTC)

At this point, anything's possible. Category 5, anyone? (Please, no...) CrazyC83 22:10, 27 October 2005 (UTC)

Ahhh! No! Crazy C, don't take this the wrong way, but everytime you mentioned Category 5 in a storm discussion, something bad happened. It's like in the old Western movies where the good guys walk into town and say, "It's quiet...too quiet." I'm still hoping that it won't get any worse than a low end Category 3. Or, better yet, upwell some cold water and weaken. -- Hurricane Eric - my dropsonde 22:23, 27 October 2005 (UTC)

Well,the future can hold anything from

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION

to

WINDS OF INCONCEIVABLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE GODZILLA REACH SUPERSONIC SPEED...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT LOST AFTER REPORTING EXPLOSION OF DROPSONDE IN CENTRAL VACUUUM...PRESIDENT ORDERS EVACUATION OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN TIME ZONES...MOST OF FLORIDA WILL BE UNDERWATER BY THE TIME YOU READ THIS...IT'S THE END OF THE WORLD...THAT'S ALL FOLKS!--Louis E./le@put.com/12.144.5.2 22:58, 27 October 2005 (UTC) She doesn't want to strengthen right now...that has bought people time and means that she won't get as strong as otherwise first thought... CrazyC83 15:28, 28 October 2005 (UTC)

Wilma, Rita, and Katrina all stalled out at a certain level for a while. As a caveat, so did Lee... but you see what I'm saying is possible. The Great Zo 16:24, 28 October 2005 (UTC)

Almost a hurricane now, up to 70 mph (and they say it is a conservative estimate). Special advisory at 1 am, anyone? CrazyC83 03:13, 29 October 2005 (UTC)

Ouch, this could be really bad. Look at the latest forecast track. It moves it excruciatingly slowly over Nicaragua, Honduras, and Guatemala! That's not good at all. bob rulz 04:05, 29 October 2005 (UTC)

Looks like she wants to go into Stan's ruins? This could be catastrophic, even if Beta doesn't strengthen a whole lot!!! CrazyC83 04:17, 29 October 2005 (UTC)

Hurricane Beta

Beta is now a hurricane according to the NHC. -- RattleMan 06:04, 29 October 2005 (UTC)

Latest intermediate advisory confirms that [29]. Titoxd^(?!?) 06:06, 29 October 2005 (UTC)

Let's hope that expected Cat 2 landfall doesn't happen (at Cat 2, at least). -- NSLE _{(Communicate!)} ^<Contribs> 06:10, 29 October 2005 (UTC)

I know we have to call it Hurricane Beta, but Hurricane β looks really cool. "β is rapidly intensifying!" "β is forecast to ravage Nicaragua." TimL

Looks like she's starting to charge! Could this be the seventh major hurricane of the season? I think she just might reach that! (Although Category 5 seems highly unlikely unless it turns north and northeast) CrazyC83 15:14, 29 October 2005 (UTC)

It seems likely that Beta's going to strengthen like this until it runs outta water. The question is when that will be? NHC says sometime tomorrow...the day before Halloween. Nature's cruel sense of humor strikes again. -- Hurricane Eric - my dropsonde 17:55, 29 October 2005 (UTC)

Not the Trick or Treater you want at your door! But this sorority really wants to do so... CrazyC83 18:13, 29 October 2005 (UTC)

Trick or treat. Smell my feet, give me something good to eat. If you don't, I don't care. I'll fill your life with death and despair. -- Hurricane Eric - my dropsonde - archive 06:01, 30 October 2005 (UTC)

Not again:...

AN 1140Z TRMM OVERPASS SHOWS THAT BETA HAS A PINHOLE EYE UNDERNEATH

ITS CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST...WHICH HAS CONVECTIVE TOPS OF -80C JUST EAST OF THE CENTER. (emphasis mine) [30] Miss Michelle | Talk to Michelle 20:22, 29 October 2005 (UTC)

Beta's pressure has been rising so it might be possible that wave passing by is killing her!Or it could be possible that they're combining to make a more powerful Beta...*shivers*

--HurricaneJeanne 20:51, 29 October 2005 (UTC)

For the record, Beta's pressure never actually rose. They had it estimated at 975, and the plane found 981 - so it never weakened, but it just wasn't as deep as the estimation, er, estimated. The Great Zo 07:12, 30 October 2005 (UTC)

I don't know what to say. The presence of the pinhole eye will make Beta extremely volatile right now - I'd say there is a 60% chance that this thing will go into rapid intensification and become a Category 3 or 4 hurricane (with a slight chance of Category 5), about a 10% chance that she will hold steady, and a 30% chance that she will start to lose her convection due to the rising pressure. Right now I think the pressure was an aberration - the later advisories will tell the tale. CrazyC83 21:08, 29 October 2005 (UTC)

If you look here she is starting to look healthier.But the other wave seems to have dissipated before even coming near her.But her pressure has been the same for the past two advisories so let's hope this means she is starting to die because the water is getting shallow. ^^HurricaneJeanne 00:02, 30 October 2005 (UTC)

Looking at Advisory 13 and Discussion 13,it may be time for a "Major Hurricane Beta" subhead when they reach #14.--Louis E./le@put.com/12.144.5.2 02:52, 30 October 2005 (UTC)

Or 13A, or Special Advisory 14... CrazyC83 05:03, 30 October 2005 (UTC)

Beta is at 105 and has a few hours till landfall only 6 till it's a 3!!! On top of that it's the Anniversay of Hurricane Mitch! Let's hope Beta doesn't want to spook the people of Central America like Mitch did. Let's keep them in our toughts and prayers. tdwuhs

Is it really? That's unsettling. Mitch did more than spook the people of Central America. He murdered 18,000 of them in less than a week. The presence of a pinhole eye is not by itself a bad thing. It simply means that the storm's structure is extremely well organized and set for strengthening. Storms with a pinhole eye are more intense and have a tighter circulation than other storms. But pinhole eyes are very unstable. In an eyewall replacement cycle, they are very prone to complete collapse, causing a dramatic weakening of the storm. Opal briefly developed a pinhole before undergoing a replacement cycle right as it hit as thin bank of dry air. The storm nearly fell apart. Didn't help Florida much though. Most meteorologists will tell you that bigger, symetrical eyes like Katrina's are more stable and can take a serious beating without weakening much. That's what happened with a new and improved Hurricane Wilma. She developed a strong eye and eyewall that resisted the wind shear. Thus the results in Miami. Plus, Beta's eye is not even visible in the satellite imagry. There is no way that's stable. It's like using a thin stick as a cane, not much support to offer. It's not like Wilma's or Gilbert's pinhole eyes. Those were wider, more symetrical and more intense. They were the real Macoys. Beta's is a wannabe.

Hurricane Eric - my dropsonde - archive 04:17, 30 October 2005 (UTC)

Not gonna complain, but looks like one of CrazyC's insane predictions actually DIDN'T turn up true this time! Beta may breifly hit Cat 3 before landfall, but for whatever reason, it just couldn't strengthen too much until it was too late. However it would be prudent to keep in mind that the people inland who are about to be hurt, made homeless, or killed, won't care what category we're ranking it at over water. The Great Zo 07:12, 30 October 2005 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Beta

Beta was just upgraded to Category 3. [31] Ajm81 08:59, 30 October 2005 (UTC)

NHC said that Beta was the eighth major hurricane in Discussion #14. Did they make a mistake? 202.40.137.199 12:48, 30 October 2005 (UTC)

Yes they did...since no other storm even came relatively close to Category 3 (Irene was the only Cat 2 and that was a struggle to reach it)... CrazyC83 15:25, 30 October 2005 (UTC)

And two separate sections below have formed to ask and answer that same question.Meanwhile Beta is now a bare Category 1 at Advisory 15A and will probably be a TS for Advisory 16.--Louis E./le@put.com/12.144.5.2 18:32, 30 October 2005 (UTC)

Meanwhile, check out what CNN writes:

Thousands of residents sought shelter from the storm in boarded-up homes or government shelters.
Beta, the 26th named storm of a record Atlantic hurricane season, made landfall near La Barra,
Nicaragua, at about 7 a.m. ET as a Category 2 storm, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.

Now, everyone knows there are 26 letters in the Roman alphabet, but if we're going by naming storms, the 26th would be Epsilon. -- RattleMan 23:04, 30 October 2005 (UTC)

Can you say T-Y-P-O? -- Hurricane Eric - my dropsonde - archive 04:15, 31 October 2005 (UTC)

roffle Mike H (Talking is hot) 04:26, 31 October 2005 (UTC)

ACE calcs

I have updated the info on Beta and the ACE for 2100UTC. I would not mind someone double-checking the ACE. Based on the advisory figure of 50kt winds, I added 0.25 * 10⁴ kt² to the previous ACE of 0.325. --EMS | Talk 22:17, 27 October 2005 (UTC)

Intensity as of the 11 PM EDT advisory was 55 knots...time to update ACE again.--L.E./12.144.5.2 02:53, 28 October 2005 (UTC)

Maximum sustained winds as of the 10 AM EST Oct 30 2005 advisory were 90 Mph... 80 knots? But the landfall intensity was 90 knots according to the Discussion of the same time. I used the advisory numbers for the ACE calcs, double check me please. Is this the right number to use? Siebren 15:37, 30 October 2005 (UTC)

Adv.	Date	Time	Maximum Sustained Winds (kt)	ACE (104 kt2)
2	27 Oct	5 am EDT	35	0.1225
3		11 am EDT	45	0.2025
4		5 pm EDT	50	0.25
5		11 pm EDT	55	0.3025
6	28 Oct	5 am EDT	55	0.3025
7		11 am EDT	55	0.3025
8		5 pm EDT	55	0.3025
9		11 pm EDT	60	0.36
10	29 Oct	5 am EDT	70	0.49
11		11 am EDT	75	0.5625
12		5 pm EDT	80	0.64
13		11 pm EDT	90	0.81
14	30 Oct	4 am EST	100	1.00
15		10 am EST	80	0.64
16		4 pm EST	55	0.3025
Total				6.59

-- NSLE _{(Communicate!)} ^<Contribs> 03:31, 28 October 2005 (UTC) updated -- NSLE _{(Communicate!)} ^<Contribs> 06:21, 30 October 2005 (UTC) to note end of DST

Please note that the Advisory links won't work until the next advisory is issued. Tompw 08:53, 28 October 2005 (UTC)

With the Discussion 15 numbers (not yet reflected in the article) Beta has passed Franklin to enter the season's Top Ten.--Louis E./le@put.com/12.144.5.2 15:45, 30 October 2005 (UTC)

As of the 10 pm 10/30 advisory, Beta has become a tropical depression dissipating inland. The NHC says that if it regenerates over the Pacific, "it will be given a new name and/or number". On that basis, I would say that the book is closed on Beta and it's ACE. --EMS | Talk 04:25, 31 October 2005 (UTC)

Could Beta cross into Pacific?

NHC said that GFS...GFDL...AND GFDN models take Beta into Pacific? Given the more westward movement recently, I guess Beta may be able to do so. If Beta succeed, it will be the first one to do so since Cesar/Douglas in 1996. Momoko 02:43, 30 October 2005 (UTC)

Even if it does cross over, it wouldn't survive. There's a huge bank of dry air just beyond the Central American isthmus. -- Hurricane Eric - my dropsonde - archive 04:22, 30 October 2005 (UTC)

From NHC Beta discussion 15:

HOWEVER...IN THE UNLIKELY EVENT THAT BETA REMAINS A TROPICAL CYCLONE
THROUGHOUT ITS OVERLAND PASSAGE...IT WOULD RETAIN ITS NAME IN THE EASTERN
NORTH PACIFIC BASIN.

Siebren 15:24, 30 October 2005 (UTC)

From HNC Discussion 17, which notes that Beta has become a dissapating tropical depression:

SHOULD THE SYSTEM REGENERATE OVER THE EAST PACIFIC..
IT WOULD BE ASSIGNED A NEW NUMBER AND/OR NAME

--EMS | Talk 04:21, 31 October 2005 (UTC)

91L.INVEST

The area east of the islands is now an invest. Floater 2 is now on it. We'll see if it pulls an Alpha. Looks like there is a race for the next storm, but I think development will be slower than 90L. Hurricanehink 14:24, 26 October 2005 (UTC)

I'd have to say that this thing won't do much...but I could be wrong. CrazyC83 15:55, 26 October 2005 (UTC)

The NHC says it's entering a more favorable environment, but it appears to have lost a lot of convection. -- Hurricane Eric - my dropsonde 13:47, 27 October 2005 (UTC)

In other words, it is coming into that area dying, so it has to start from scratch...can't see this blob even coming close to becoming Gamma... CrazyC83 15:33, 27 October 2005 (UTC)

10.30pm TWO:

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE DIMINISHED. IT APPEARS THAT THE CHANCES
FOR DEVELOPMENT HAVE ALSO DISMINISHED.

Well, that's it then. -- NSLE _{(Communicate!)} ^<Contribs> 02:20, 28 October 2005 (UTC)

I guess we won't see another fraternity house open from that blob... CrazyC83 02:38, 28 October 2005 (UTC)

5:00 am discussion seems to indicate a potential 'gamma' forming

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED ABOUT 350 NMI NORTHEAST OF BETA HAS DEVELOPED SOME
IMPRESSIVE AROUND THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION... WHICH WILL LIKELY
STRENGTHEN THAT SYSTEM AND RESULT IN SOME POSSIBLE BINARY
INTERACTION

- TimL

Uh, not exactly.... 5.30am TWO:

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE INCREASED THIS MORNING. HOWEVER... ALL OR
A PORTION OF THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY BECOME ABSORBED BY TROPICAL
STORM BETA... WHICH WILL DECREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.

Emphasis mine. -- NSLE _{(Communicate!)} ^<Contribs> 09:36, 28 October 2005 (UTC)