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Opinion polling for the 2024 Romanian parliamentary election

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

In preparation for the next Romanian parliamentary election, which will take place on 1 December 2024,[1] various polling companies and organisations from Romania have already (more specifically since December 2020 onwards) been carrying out a series of opinion polling to gauge and keep track of the voting intention among the overall electorate.

Polls

[edit]
See also: 2020 in Romania, 2021 in Romania, 2022 in Romania, 2023 in Romania, and 2024 in Romania

2024

[edit]
Date Poll source Sample size PSD–PNL United Right AUR UDMR PRO PUSL AER REPER SOS Others Lead
PSD PNL USR PMP FD PER PV
26 - 28 Nov 2024 AtlasIntel 2,116 21.4 13.4 17.5 — 2.5 22.4 5.5 — — — — 1.5 4.6 11.2[a] 1
9 - 13 Nov 2024 Newsweek 1,040 31 20 12 — 2 16 5 — — — — 1 5 2 18
7 -12 Nov 2024 INSCOP 1,100 31.1 16.2 12.7 1.1 20.7 4.5 — — — 1.2 2.6 5.9 4 10.4
30 Oct - 5 Nov 2024 CURS 1,067 32 20 12 3 15 5 — — — — — 6 7 12
24 – 28 Oct 2024 Newsweek 1,150 31 20.5 16.5 3.1 17.5 6.5 — — — — 0.9 2.6 1.2 10.5
11 – 18 Oct 2024 INSCOP 1,106 30.2 13.2 12.7 3.1 18 3 — — — — — 7 3 8.8
11 – 16 Oct 2024 CURS 1,006 31 20 15 1.4 0.6 21.4 3.7 — — 2.1 — 2.5 8.1 4.1 11
7 – 9 Oct 2024 Verified for USR 1,009 28.2 12.6 19.5 1.0 1.7 22.7 4.2 0.7 0.2 0.5 — 2.4 5.3 1.0 8.7
11 - 16 Sep 2024 INSCOP 1,102 30.1 14.3 17.1 0.8 0.9 14.7 5.0 1.4 0.3 — 0.7 1.9 8.9 3.9 13
24 – 30 Aug 2024 The Center for International Research and Analyses 1,099 31.0 22.0 13.0 1.0 1.0 14.0 5.0 — — — — 1.0 10.0 2.0 9
Aug 2024 Verified for USR — 29.3 17.8 13.1 1.6 1.5 16.6 2.9 2.5 0.4 1.4 — 2.5 8.7 1.7 11.5
19 – 27 June 2024 INSCOP Research 1,100 29.4 18.9 12.2 — — 14.7 4.6 1.1 1.5 2.2 1.9 3.6 6.1 3.8 11.5
9 June 2024 2024 European election — 48.55 8.71 14.93 6.48 — 1.48 — — 3.74 5.03 11.08[b] 33.62
9 June 2024 2024 Local Election — 32.52 26.13 11.54 9.61 5.42 0.34 1.47 0.68 0.80 1.39 10.10 6.39
14 Feb-4 Mar 2024 INSCOP 2,000 32.8 19.7 10.6[c] 16.5 3.9 2.5 1 1.4 1 6.2 4.4[d] 13.1
19-20 Feb 2024 Avangarde NA 31 20 15[e] 18 5 — — — — 2 8 1 11
3-8 Jan 2024 Snap Market Research 998 32 12 10[f] 13 6 1 1 — — 1 8 16[g] 19
6 December 2020 2020 Chamber election — 28.90 25.18 15.37 4.82 — 9.08 5.74 4.09 1.19 1.12 0.35 — 6.82 3.72
2020 Senate election — 29.32 25.58 15.86 4.93 — 9.17 5.89 4.13 1.01 1.33 0.40 — 5.12 3.74

2023

[edit]
Date Poll source Sample size PSD PNL USR AUR UDMR PMP PRO[h] PUSL PER PV REPER FD S.O.S. Others Lead
16 - 28 Dec 2023 ARA Public Opinion 1.002 30.6 16.2 14.6 9.6 5.0 3.5 1.0 4.0 2.7 — — 2.8 2.4 7.5 14.4
25–30 Nov 2023 Snap Market Research 983 29 13 8 16 6 5 2 1 — — 1 1 5 13[i] 13
20–27 Nov 2023 INSCOP 1.100 30.2 20.1 11.9 19.5 4.9 1.3 2.0 0.7 — 1.9 0.3 0.6 5.2 1.3 10.1
30 Oct–6 Nov 2023 Mercury Research 1,227 29 17 15 20 4 3 — 0 — — 1 2 4 4 9
23 Oct–2 Nov 2023 INSCOP 1,100 29.5 18.4 14.1 20.2 3.8 1.7 2.6 — — 2.6 0.5 1.0 4.3 1.4 9.3
20–29 Oct 2023 AtlasIntel 2,000 21.4 12.9 17.7 16.0 6.0 8.2 1.2 0.2 — — 3.9 4.6 6.8 1.0[j] 3.7
11–25 Sep 2023 LARICS 1,003 32.0 23.9 14.7 14.3 2.9 4.0 — 0.9 — — — — 4.7 7.3 8.1
15–22 Sep 2023 INSCOP 1,550 29.1 20.4 11 22.4 4.6 1.7 1.5 — — 2.5 0.7 1 3.1 4.9 6.7
12–22 Sep 2023 CURS 1,008 31 19 11 18 4 4 2 4 — — — — 5 7 12
8–19 Sep 2023 Sociopol 1,004 29 15 15 23 5 3 — — 3 — — — 3 4 6
4–10 Sep 2023 PNL 1,032 30 20 14 20 5 4 1 — — — — 1 3 5 10
24–31 Aug 2023 CURS 1,067 32 19 12 19 5 4 — 2 — — — — 4 — 13
8–20 July 2023 CURS — 31 18 12 20 4 4 2 4 — — — — 4 5 11
June 2023 INSCOP — 28.7 18.0 12.7 20.1 — — — — — — — — — 20.5 8.6
May–June 2023 Geeks for Democracy 806 31.0 19.0 11.0 18.0 5.0 — — — — — — — — 16.0 12.0
27 May–11 June 2023 The Center — 28.0 18.0 13.0 22.0 6.0 3.0 2.0 — — — — 2.0 — 6.0 6.0
19–27 May 2023 CURS 1,082 31.0 20.0 11.0 17.0 5.0 5.0 — 4.0 — — — — — 7.0 12.0
12–17 May 2023 CURS 1,067 32.0 20.0 10.0 17.0 5.0 5.0 — 3.0 — — — — — 8.0 12.0
10–20 March 2023 CURS 1,105 33.0 21.0 9.0 16.0 5.0 5.0 — 4.0 — — — — — 7.0 12.0
5–19 Feb 2023 INSCOP 3,000 31.7 22.3 11.2 18.2 4.6 2.9 2.4 — — 1.4 — — — 5.4 9.4
1–13 Feb 2023 INSCOP 1,000 30.4 21.6 10.9 19.1 4.3 3.0 2.9 — 1.6 2.7 0.1 0.7 — 2.7 8.8
27–30 Jan 2023 Atlas Intel 2,000 24.8 17.2 12.4 17.9 6.4 5.9 4.0 — — — 1.9 2.9 — 2.8 6.9
10–20 Jan 2023 CURS 1,067 36.0 22.0 8.0 14.0 5.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 — — — — — 3.0 14.0
6 December 2020 2020 Chamber election — 28.90 25.18 15.37 9.08 5.74 4.82 4.09 1.19 1.12 0.35 — — 6.82 3.72
2020 Senate election — 29.32 25.58 15.86 9.17 5.89 4.93 4.13 1.01 1.33 0.40 — — 5.12 3.74

2022

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Date Poll source Sample size PSD PNL USR PLUS/USR AUR UDMR PMP PRO ALDE[k] PUSL PER ApP[l] REPER FD Others Lead
Dec 2022 INSCOP — 31.5 20.2 10.9 18.1 — — — — — — — — — 19.3 11.3
8–22 Nov 2022 CURS 1,067 34 24 9 12 5 4 — — 4 — — — — 8.0 10.0
Oct 2022 Sociopol — 36 19 11 14 4 2 2 1 0 3 0 4 1 3.0 17.0
8–22 Sep 2022 CURS 1,015 35 22 8 15 5 — 4 — 4 — — — — 8.0 13.0
Aug 2022 Sociopol — 32 15 11 25 6 — — — — — — — — 11.0 7.0
5–17 Aug 2022 CURS — 32 23 10 13 — 4 2 — 4 3 3 — 2 2.0 9.0
22–31 Jul 2022 Avangarde c. 900 37 23 9 11 5 4 1 — 3 — 2 1 2 2.0 14.0
22–30 Jun 2022 Avangarde 903 35 20 9 12 5 5 2 — 4 — 2 2 2 2.0 15.0
17–30 Jun 2022 IPSOS 1,072 37.8 25.4 12.7 10.1 3 3 4 — — — — — — 4.0 12.4
19–26 May 2022 CURS 1,067 35 23 9 10 5 6 — — 4 2 2 — — 4.0 12.0
12–20 Apr 2022 Avangarde 906 36 19 11 14 5 — — — — — — — — 16.0 17.0
28 Mar–11 Apr 2022 CURS 2,750 35 23 11 12 5 5 3 — 2 — 1 — 1 2.0 12.0
22–29 Mar 2022 Avangarde 900 35 16 12 15 — — — — — — — — — 22.0 19.0
2–11 Mar 2022 CURS 1,172 36 20 8 14 5 4 2 — 4 2 2 — — 3.0 16.0
2–7 Mar 2022 INSCOP 1,077 32 19.9 10.8 18.9 — — — — — — — — — 18.4 13.6
9–19 Feb 2022 Sociopol 1,001 35 16 13 22 6 1 2 2 0 0 2 — 1 0.0 18.0
20–31 Jan 2022 Avangarde 903 35 16 12 18 — — — — — — — — — 19.0 17.0
22–29 Jan 2022 CURS 1,003 35 17 10 16 5 4 2 4 4 3 2 — 3 2.0 18.0
10–18 Jan 2022 INSCOP 1,162 34.3 16.6 12.5 20.6 4.2 2.1 2.9 — 1.3 — 1.0 — 1.7 1.5 13.7
6 December 2020 2020 Chamber election — 28.90 25.18 15.37 9.08 5.74 4.82 4.09 1.19 1.12 — — — 6.82 3.72
2020 Senate election — 29.32 25.58 15.86 9.17 5.89 4.93 4.13 1.01 1.33 — — — 5.12 3.74

2021

[edit]
Date Poll source Sample size PSD PNL FD USR PLUS AUR UDMR PMP PRO ALDE PUSL PER ApP[l] Others Lead
15–23 Dec 2021 Avangarde 907 39.0 18.0 — 10.0 17.0 5.0 3.0 2.0 — 4.0 — 1.0 1.0 21.0
17–22 Dec 2021 Sociopol 1,001 33.0 15.0 3.0 12.0 23.0 5.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 — 1.0 1.0 2.0 10.0
13–17 Dec 2021 CURS 1,100 38.0 19.0 — 11.0 13.0 5.0 5.0 — — 4.0 — — 5.0 19.0
25 Nov 2021 The Ciucă Cabinet, supported by a grand coalition consisting of the PNL, PSD, and UDMR/RMDSZ is voted and invested
16–24 Nov 2021 Avangarde 906 40.0 17.0 — 11.0 15.0 5.0 4.0 1.0 1.0 4.0 — — 2.0 23.0
17–22 Nov 2021 CURS 1,100 38.0 18.0 — 11.0 14.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 1.0 3.0 — — 3.0 20.0
9–12 Nov 2021 PPU 1,023 30.5 3.0 7.5 23.0 12.0 5.0 6.5 5.5 1.0 2.5 — 2.5 1.0 7.5
before 3 Nov 2021 FL 1,217 34.0 8.0 20.0 12.0 5.0 6.5 5.5 2.0 1.0 — 2.0 4.0 14.0
25–30 Oct 2021 CURS 1,100 39.0 19.0 — 11.0 12.0 5.0 5.0 3.0 — 4.0 — — 2.0 20.0
17–26 Oct 2021 Avangarde 900 40.0 17.0 — 13.0 14.0 5.0 4.0 2.0 1.0 4.0 — — 0.0 23.0
15–25 Oct 2021 INSCOP 1,100 35.5 21.9 — 12.4 14.2 5.0 2.9 3.2 — 0.5 — 1.7 2.8 13.6
12–20 Oct 2021 CURS 1,202 39.0 21.0 — 11.0 13.0 5.0 — — — — — — 11.0 18.0
12–17 Oct 2021 APP 1,122 30.0 3.0 11.5 17.5 17.0 4.0 6.0 5.0 1.5 — — 3.5 1.0 12.5
12–17 Oct 2021 INSCOP 1,100 36.7 19.8 — 16.4 15.3 3.0 2.1 3.0 — — — — 3.8 16.9
11–15 Oct 2021 Sociopol 1,002 32.0 20.0 — 13.0 21.0 6.0 — — — — — — 8.0 11.0
26–29 Sep 2021 Gazeta Civică 1,202 28.0 17.0 18.0 17.5 5.0 5.5 4.0 1.0 — — 3.0 2.0 10.0
28 Sep 2021 INSOMAR 1,030 31.6 25.9 15.0 17.0 4.6 2.5 2.3 — — — 1.2 0.0 5.7
15–27 Sep 2021 INSCOP 1,204 35.4 21.9 9.8 17.1 — 2.9 4.4 — — — — 8.5 13.5
14–21 Sep 2021 Avangarde 900 37.0 20.0 13.0 14.0 5.0 4.0 1.0 1.0 4.0 — — 1.0 17.0
8–10 Sep 2021 CURS 861 36.0 19.0 11.0 14.0 5.0 5.0 3.0 2.0 4.0 — — 1.0 17.0
3–5 Sep 2021 CURS 853 35.0 20.0 11.0 12.0 5.0 5.0 3.0 3.0 4.0 — — 2.0 15.0
1 Sep 2021 The 2021 Romanian political crisis begins, leading to the break-up of the centre-right governmental coalition and a PNL splinter
20–24 Aug 2021 Avangarde 900 35.0 21.0 14.0 15.0 5.0 5.0 2.0 — 1.0 — — 2.0[m] 14.0
12–20 Aug 2021 CURS 1,067 34.0 20.0 12.0 11.0 5.0 5.0 3.0 3.0 4.0 — — 3.0 14.0
15–19 Aug 2021 IRES 1,006 35.0 27.0 14.0 14.0 5.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 — — — 2.0 8.0
26 Jul 2021 INSOMAR — 38.1 15.1 11.1 15.0 5.1 — — — — — — 15.8 23.0
9–19 Jul 2021 Avangarde 903 34.0 23.0 13.0 15.0 5.0 — — — — — — 10.0 11.0
1–15 Jul 2021 Sociopol 1,100 31.0 27.0 15.0 10.0 7.0 2.0 3.0 — — 2.0 — 3.0 4.0
24 Jun 2021 INSOMAR 1,030 22.9 25.0 15.0 18.0 5.1 — 2.0 2.9 — — — 7.2 2.1
11–18 Jun 2021 CURS 1,067 34.0 22.0 14.0 12.0 4.0 5.0 2.0 3.0 2.0 — — 4.0 12.0
1–15 Jun 2021 INSCOP 1,100 30.2 26.6 13.2 14.2 — 2.8 4.3 — — — — 8.7 3.6
18 May 2021 Sociopol 1,100 36 22 15 11 6 2 5 0 1 1 — 1.0[n] 14.0
18 May 2021 IRES 1,100 36.0 28.0 11.0 14.0 3.0 — 3.0 — — 1.0 — 8.0 8.0
1–8 May 2021 Avangarde 900 36.0 23.0 14.0 15.0 5.0 2.0 2.0 — 1.0 1.0 — 2.0 13.0
7 May 2021 INSOMAR 1,030 22.1 23.5 13.6 15.5 8.6 4.6 4.1 — — — — 8.4 1.4
14–17 Apr 2021 CURS 1,107 33.0 21.0 16.0 12.0 4.0 5.0 3.0 — 4.0 — — 2.0 12.0
30 Mar–11 Apr 2021 BCS[2] 1,420 28.9 22.3 22.5 10.0 4.0 4.2 2.9 — — — — 5.1 6.4
12–28 Mar 2021 Sociopol — 35.0 26.0 17.0 12.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 — — — — 1.0 9.0
22–26 Feb 2021 CURS 1,100 34.0 25.0 16.0 9.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 — 3.0 — — 4.0 10.0
10–14 Feb 2021 PER 1,055 33.0 25.0 20.0 8.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 2.0 — 3.0 — 4.0 8.0
9–11 Feb 2021 INSOMAR 1,030 28.0 27.0 14.0 16.0 6.0 4.0 1.0 — — — — 4.0 1.0
15–17 Jan 2021 Avangarde 710 34.0 24.0 16.0 14.0 5.0 3.0 1.0 — — — — 3.0 10.0
11–15 Jan 2021 CURS 1,100 34.0 26.0 16.0 12.0 5.0 3.0 2.0 — — — — 2.0 8.0
17–21 Dec 2020 CURS 1,100 35.0 26.0 14.0 15.0 4.0 2.0 2.0 — — — — 2.0 9.0
10–20 Dec 2020 Avangarde 900 35.0 26.0 15.0 14.0 5.0 2.0 1.0 — — — — 2.0 9.0
6 December 2020 2020 Chamber election — 28.90 25.18 15.37 9.08 5.74 4.82 4.09 1.19 1.12 — 6.82 3.72
2020 Senate election — 29.32 25.58 15.86 9.17 5.89 4.93 4.13 1.01 1.33 — 5.12 3.74
  1. ^ Party of Young People - 4.6
  2. ^ PDU: 1.79%; Patriots Party: 0.73%; PRM: 0.66%; AD: 0.45%; ARS: 0.42%
  3. ^ In this scenario, USR, PMP and FD are running on the same list
  4. ^ BSR: 0.5%
  5. ^ In this scenario, USR, PMP and FD are running on the same list
  6. ^ In this scenario, USR, PMP and FD are running on the same list
  7. ^ UNPR: 4%; BSR: 9%
  8. ^ Also included ALDE in its overall political score in the 2020 parliamentary elections.
  9. ^ Romanian Sovereignist Bloc: 8%; National Union for the Progress of Romania: 3%
  10. ^ PNȚ-CD 0.4%
  11. ^ ALDE is no longer active at any political level since late March 2022, having been entirely absorbed by the PNL in the meantime.
  12. ^ a b Formerly known as PAINE.
  13. ^ PRM - 1.0%
  14. ^ PRM - 0%

Probable projection of seats in the next parliament

[edit]
See also: 2020 in Romania, 2021 in Romania, 2022 in Romania, 2023 in Romania, and 2024 in Romania

166 seats are needed for a chamber majority.

Date Poll source PSD PNL USR PLUS/USR AUR UDMR PMP PRO ApP[a] FD Nat. min. Lead
19–26 May 2022 CURS 133 88 34 38 19 0 0 0 0 18 45
12–20 Apr 2022 Avangarde 132 70 40 52 18 0 0 0 0 18 62
17–22 Dec 2021 Sociopol 117 53 42 82 18 0 0 0 0 18 35
17–26 Oct 2021 Avangarde 140 59 46 49 18 0 0 0 0 18 81
12–17 Oct 2021 INSCOP 125 68 56 52 11 0 0 0 0 18 57
12–17 Oct 2021 APP 109 42 63 62 14 21 0 0 0 18 46
26–29 Sep 2021 Gazeta Civică 95 57 61 59 17 18 0 0 0 18 34
28 Sep 2021 INSOMAR 104 85 49 56 15 0 0 0 0 18 19
9–19 Jul 2021 Avangarde 118 80 45 52 17 0 0 0 0 18 38
11–15 Jan 2021 CURS 113 88 53 40 18 0 0 0 0 18 25
6 December 2020 2020 Chamber election 110 93[3] 55 33 21 0 0 — PNL[4] 18 17

Approval ratings

[edit]
Date Poll source Sample size Ciolacu
PSD 		Ciucă
PNL 		Cîțu
PNL 		Orban
PNL/FD 		Cioloș
USR PLUS 		Barna
USR PLUS 		Dragu
USR PLUS 		Simion
AUR 		Kelemen
UDMR 		Diaconescu
PMP 		Băsescu
PMP 		President
Iohannis
31 Jan 22 CURS — 27.0 27.0 11.0 10.0 13.0 — — 21.0 13.0 15.0 11.0 18.0
17–26 Oct 21 Avangarde 900 25.0 — 7.0 9.0 13.0 9.0 — 20.0 — — — 14.0
14–21 Sep 21 Avangarde 900 33.0 — 14.0 16.0 12.0 12.0 — 14.0 — — — 30.0
12–20 Aug 21 CURS 1,100 27.0 — 18.0 16.0 14.0 14.0 11.0 15.0 12.0 17.0 11.0 32.0
11–18 Jun 21 CURS 1,067 26.0 — 19.0 18.0 15.0 14.0 14.0 18.0 11.0 17.0 14.0 33.0
6 May 21 INSOMAR 1,030 20.1 — — 21.9 8.2 12.0 — 14.1 — 8.3 — —
14–17 Apr 21 CURS 1,107 26.0 — 24.0 20.0 16.0 15.0 — 21.0 13.0 — — —
11 Apr 21 BCS 1,420 14.0 — 21.6 17.5 18.6 16.8 — 12.2 6.5 11.8 16.6 —
22–26 Feb 21 CURS 1,100 25.0 — 17.0 20.0 14.0 18.0 14.0 20.0 18.0 — — 37.0

2021 political crisis poll

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Polling firm Date Question Iohannis PNL USR Cîțu PSD N/A[5]
Avangarde[6] Oct 2021 Who is the main culprit (i.e. guilty) for the current political crisis? 18% 14% 11% 8% 1% 48%

Approval ratings for former Prime Minister Florin Cîțu (April–October 2021)

[edit]
Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample size Florin Cîțu

(PNL)

checkY ☒N Question? Net
CURS 25–30 Oct 2021 1,100 10.0 81.0 9.0 −71.0
Avangarde 17–26 Oct 2021 900 7.0 74.0 19.0 −67.0
Avangarde 14–21 Sep 2021 900 14.0 61.0 25.0 −47.0
CURS 12–20 Aug 2021 1,100 18.0 77.0 5.0 −59.0
CURS 11–18 Jun 2021 1,067 19.0 75.0 6.0 −56.0
CURS 14–17 Apr 2021 1,107 24.0 69.0 7.0 −45.0
BCS 11 Apr 2021 1,420 21.6 68.5 9.8 −46.9


National approval rating

[edit]
Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample size Is Romania going on a good path/direction?
checkY ☒N Question? Net
Approved Disapproval
Avangarde 17–26 Oct 2021 900 8.0 80.0 12.0 −72.0

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ Formerly known as PAINE.

References

[edit]
  1. ^ Marica, Irina (4 July 2024). "Romania's ruling parties agree on dates for presidential and parliamentary elections". Romania Insider. Archived from the original on 31 August 2024.
  2. ^ BCS - Biroul de Cercetări Sociale (11 April 2021). "Credințe și valori în societatea românească 30 martie - 11 aprilie 2021". Retrieved 10 November 2021.
  3. ^ Subsequently, several deputies decided to leave the PNL and follow former PNL president and former Prime Minister Ludovic Orban in his new political project, Force of the Right (or FD for short), shortly after PNL decided to form a new cabinet with PSD; therefore at one point in time during this legislature of the Romanian parliament, PNL had 81 deputies whereas FD had 16. Currently, PNL has even fewer deputies, namely 79 (more specifically as of late October 2023).
  4. ^ At that time, more specifically in late 2020, 13 deputies previously seating with FD as of late 2021 were part of the PNL parliamentary group in the Chamber of Deputies. Currently, there are 16 deputies seating with FD, 3 more than initially, through party switching from AUR.
  5. ^ Don't know/No opinion
  6. ^ Avangarde (27 October 2021). "Barometrul Opiniei Publice Național Octombrie 2021" (PDF). Retrieved 10 November 2021.
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