Opinion polling for the 2021 Senedd election
In the run-up to the 2021 Senedd election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intentions. Results of such polls are displayed in this list. Most of the pollsters listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules.
The date range for these opinion polls was from the 2016 National Assembly for Wales election, held on 5 May 2016, to 6 May 2021 when the election for the newly named Senedd took place and was the first Welsh election which included 16 and 17-year-olds in the electoral franchise. After January 2020 most opinion polls also included this data set to reflect the enfranchisement in the next election.[1]
Constituency vote
[edit]The opinion polls below are gauge voting intentions for the 40 single member constituency seats elected through the plurality voting system.
Graphical summary
[edit]The chart below depicts constituency vote opinion polls conducted for the Senedd election.
 | Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. Updates on reimplementing the Graph extension, which will be known as the Chart extension, can be found on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Poll results
[edit]| Pollster | Client(s) | Date(s) conducted |
Sample size |
Lab | Con | Plaid Cymru |
Lib Dem | Abolish | Reform UK[a] | Green | UKIP | Other | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 election | 6 May 2021 | – | 39.9% | 26.1% | 20.3% | 4.9% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 3.2% | 13.8% | |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 2–4 May 2021 | 1,071 | 36% | 29% | 20% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 7% |
| Savanta ComRes | N/A | 29 Apr – 4 May 2021 | 1,002 | 36% | 28% | 18% | 6% | 3% | 3% | – | – | 6% | 8% |
| Savanta ComRes | N/A | 23–28 Apr 2021 | 1,002 | 36% | 27% | 19% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 4% | 9% |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 18–21 Apr 2021 | 1,142 | 35% | 24% | 24% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 3% | – | 3% | 11% |
| Opinium | Sky News | 9–19 Apr 2021 | 2,005 | 40% | 30% | 19% | 4% | – | – | – | – | 7% | 10% |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 16–19 Mar 2021 | 1,174 | 32% | 30% | 23% | 5% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 2% |
| YouGov | Wales Online | 19–22 Feb 2021 | 1,004 | 33% | 28% | 22% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 5% |
| ICM | BBC Wales | 28 Jan – 21 Feb 2021 | 1,001 | 39% | 24% | 24% | 4% | 1% | – | 1% | 2% | 4% | 15% |
| Andrew RT Davies officially becomes leader of the Welsh Conservatives[2] | |||||||||||||
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 11–14 Jan 2021 | 1,018 | 34% | 26% | 22% | 4% | – | 5% | 6% | 0% | 4% | 8% |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 26–30 Oct 2020 | 1,013 | 38% | 27% | 20% | 3% | – | 5% | 3% | 0% | 4% | 11% |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 28 Aug – 4 Sep 2020 | 1,110 | 34% | 29% | 24% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 0% | 1% | 5% |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 29 May – 1 Jun 2020 | 1,021 | 34% | 31% | 22% | 5% | 1% | 3% | 3% | 0% | 1% | 3% |
| Survation | Centre for Welsh Studies | 22–31 May 2020 | 1,051 | 40% | 26% | 18% | 7% | – | 8% | – | – | 2% | 14% |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 4–7 Apr 2020 | 1,008 | 31% | 38% | 19% | 4% | 1% | 4% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 7% |
| ICM | BBC Wales | 4–22 Feb 2020 | 1,000 | 31% | 31% | 26% | 6% | – | 2% | 2% | 2% | 1% | Tie |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 20–26 Jan 2020 | 1,037 | 33% | 35% | 19% | 5% | 1% | 4% | 3% | 0% | 1% | 2% |
| 2019 United Kingdom general election | |||||||||||||
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 6–9 Dec 2019 | 1,020 | 33% | 31% | 18% | 7% | 1% | 7% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 2% |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 25–28 Nov 2019 | 1,116 | 32% | 26% | 20% | 7% | 1% | 11% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 6% |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 31 Oct – 4 Nov 2019 | 1,136 | 27% | 24% | 21% | 10% | 1% | 14% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 3% |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 10–14 Oct 2019 | 1,032 | 25% | 23% | 22% | 11% | 1% | 15% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 2% |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 23–26 Jul 2019 | 1,071 | 21% | 19% | 24% | 12% | — | 19% | 4% | – | 2% | 3% |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 16–20 May 2019 | 1,009 | 25% | 17% | 24% | 9% | 1% | 17% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 1% |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 2–5 Apr 2019 | 1,025 | 31% | 23% | 24% | 6% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 7% | 0% | 7% |
| ICM | BBC Wales | 7–23 Feb 2019 | 1,000 | 34% | 23% | 27% | 7% | – | – | 2% | 5% | 2% | 7% |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 19–22 Feb 2019 | 1,025 | 32% | 26% | 23% | 8% | 1% | – | 3% | 7% | 2% | 6% |
| Sky Data | Cardiff University | 7–14 Dec 2018 | 1,014 | 42% | 26% | 22% | 3% | – | – | 2% | 4% | 1% | 16% |
| Mark Drakeford officially becomes leader of Welsh Labour and First Minister[3][4] | |||||||||||||
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 4–7 Dec 2018 | 1,024 | 40% | 25% | 20% | 7% | 1% | – | 2% | 5% | 0% | 15% |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 30 Oct – 2 Nov 2018 | 1,031 | 38% | 28% | 19% | 6% | 1% | – | 1% | 6% | 1% | 10% |
| Adam Price officially becomes leader of Plaid Cymru[5] | |||||||||||||
| Paul Davies officially becomes leader of the Welsh Conservatives[6] | |||||||||||||
| Gareth Bennett officially becomes leader of UKIP Wales[7] | |||||||||||||
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 28 Jun – 2 Jul 2018 | 1,031 | 38% | 28% | 21% | 6% | 1% | – | 1% | 4% | 1% | 10% |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 12–15 Mar 2018 | 1,015 | 39% | 28% | 22% | 4% | 1% | – | 1% | 5% | 0% | 11% |
| ICM | BBC Wales | 8–25 Feb 2018 | 1,001 | 40% | 22% | 24% | 6% | – | – | 1% | 5% | 2% | 16% |
| Alyn and Deeside by-election[8] | |||||||||||||
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 21–24 Nov 2017 | 1,016 | 43% | 26% | 19% | 5% | 1% | – | 2% | 4% | 1% | 17% |
| Jane Dodds officially becomes leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats[9] | |||||||||||||
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 4–7 Sep 2017 | 1,011 | 43% | 25% | 19% | 5% | 1% | – | 1% | 4% | 0% | 18% |
| 2017 United Kingdom general election | |||||||||||||
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 29–31 May 2017 | 1,014 | 42% | 26% | 19% | 6% | 1% | – | 1% | 5% | 0% | 16% |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 18–21 May 2017 | 1,025 | 40% | 27% | 20% | 6% | 0% | – | 2% | 5% | 1% | 13% |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 5–7 May 2017 | 1,018 | 33% | 33% | 20% | 7% | 1% | – | 2% | 3% | 1% | Tie |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 19–21 Apr 2017 | 1,029 | 29% | 30% | 22% | 8% | 1% | – | 1% | 8% | 1% | 1% |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 3–6 Jan 2017 | 1,034 | 31% | 25% | 21% | 8% | 1% | – | 2% | 12% | 0% | 6% |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 18–21 Sep 2016 | 1,001 | 34% | 24% | 20% | 6% | 1% | – | 2% | 13% | 0% | 10% |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 30 Jun – 4 Jul 2016 | 1,010 | 32% | 19% | 23% | 7% | 1% | – | 1% | 16% | 0% | 9% |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 30 May – 2 Jun 2016 | 1,017 | 34% | 18% | 23% | 7% | 1% | – | 2% | 15% | 0% | 11% |
| 2016 election[10] | 5 May 2016 | – | 34.7% | 21.2% | 20.5% | 7.7% | – | – | 2.5% | 12.5% | 1.0% | 13.6% | |
Regional vote
[edit]The opinion polls below are gauge voting intentions for the 20 regional list seats elected through the additional member system.
Graphical summary
[edit]The chart below depicts regional vote opinion polls conducted for the next Senedd election.
| Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. Updates on reimplementing the Graph extension, which will be known as the Chart extension, can be found on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Poll results
[edit]| Pollster | Client(s) | Date(s) conducted |
Sample size |
Lab | Con | Plaid Cymru |
Abolish | Lib Dem | Green | Reform UK[a] | UKIP | Other | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 election | 6 May 2021 | – | 36.2% | 25.1% | 20.7% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 11.1% | |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 2–4 May 2021 | 1,071 | 31% | 25% | 21% | 7% | 4% | 5% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 6% |
| Savanta ComRes | N/A | 29 Apr – 4 May 2021 | 1,002 | 32% | 25% | 19% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 3% | – | 6% | 7% |
| Savanta ComRes | N/A | 23–28 Apr 2021 | 1,002 | 31% | 24% | 21% | 8% | 5% | 3% | 3% | – | 5% | 7% |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 18–21 Apr 2021 | 1,142 | 33% | 22% | 23% | 7% | 4% | 5% | – | – | 6% | 10% |
| Opinium | Sky News | 9–19 Apr 2021 | 2,005 | 38% | 27% | 19% | – | 4% | 5% | – | 2% | 5% | 11% |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 16–19 Mar 2021 | 1,174 | 31% | 28% | 22% | 7% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 2% [b] | 3% |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 19–22 Feb 2021 | 1,004 | 29% | 25% | 24% | 9% | 2% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 4% |
| ICM | BBC Wales | 28 Jan – 21 Feb 2021 | 1,001 | 37% | 22% | 22% | 4% | 3% | 3% | – | 4% | 6% | 15% |
| Andrew RT Davies officially becomes leader of the Welsh Conservatives[2] | |||||||||||||
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 11–14 Jan 2021 | 1,018 | 30% | 25% | 23% | 7% | 4% | 5% | 4% | – | 1% | 5% |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 26–30 Oct 2020 | 1,013 | 33% | 24% | 20% | 7% | 4% | 4% | 5% | – | 2% | 9% |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 28 Aug – 4 Sep 2020 | 1,110 | 33% | 27% | 23% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 4% | – | 2% | 6% |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 29 May – 1 Jun 2020 | 1,021 | 32% | 28% | 24% | 4% | 5% | 4% | 3% | – | 1% | 4% |
| Survation | Centre for Welsh Studies | 22–31 May 2020 | 1,051 | 36% | 23% | 22% | – | 7% | – | 10% | – | 2% | 13% |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 4–7 Apr 2020 | 1,008 | 29% | 37% | 18% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 0% | 2% | 8% |
| ICM | BBC Wales | 4–22 Feb 2020 | 1,000 | 31% | 29% | 25% | – | 5% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 20–26 Jan 2020 | 1,037 | 32% | 32% | 19% | 3% | 5% | – | 3% | 0% | 5% | Tie |
| 2019 United Kingdom general election | |||||||||||||
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 6–9 Dec 2019 | 1,020 | 32% | 28% | 19% | 2% | 6% | 4% | 7% | 0% | 1% | 4% |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 25–28 Nov 2019 | 1,116 | 29% | 26% | 21% | 2% | 7% | 4% | 9% | 0% | 0% | 3% |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 31 Oct – 4 Nov 2019 | 1,136 | 23% | 23% | 21% | 4% | 9% | 5% | 13% | 1% | 1% | Tie |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 10–14 Oct 2019 | 1,032 | 23% | 22% | 21% | 3% | 10% | 5% | 14% | 1% | 0% | 1% |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 23–26 Jul 2019 | 1,071 | 19% | 18% | 23% | — | 12% | 4% | 17% | – | 7% | 4% |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 16–20 May 2019 | 1,009 | 21% | 12% | 22% | 3% | 7% | 8% | 23% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 2–5 Apr 2019 | 1,025 | 28% | 20% | 22% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 6% | 5% | 2%[c] | 6% |
| ICM | BBC Wales | 7–23 Feb 2019 | 1,000 | 32% | 22% | 25% | – | 6% | 3% | – | 6% | 6% | 7% |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 19–22 Feb 2019 | 1,025 | 29% | 24% | 23% | 4% | 6% | 4% | – | 6% | 4%[d] | 5% |
| Sky Data | Cardiff University | 7–14 Dec 2018 | 1,014 | 39% | 23% | 22% | 7% | 2% | 2% | – | 4% | 1% | 16% |
| Mark Drakeford officially becomes leader of Welsh Labour and First Minister[3][4] | |||||||||||||
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 4–7 Dec 2018 | 1,024 | 36% | 24% | 20% | 5% | 4% | 4% | – | 4% | 3%[e] | 12% |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 30 Oct – 2 Nov 2018 | 1,031 | 37% | 26% | 18% | 3% | 6% | 4% | – | 5% | 2%[c] | 11% |
| Adam Price officially becomes leader of Plaid Cymru[5] | |||||||||||||
| Paul Davies officially becomes leader of the Welsh Conservatives[6] | |||||||||||||
| Gareth Bennett officially becomes leader of UKIP Wales[7] | |||||||||||||
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 28 Jun – 2 Jul 2018 | 1,031 | 37% | 25% | 22% | 3% | 5% | 3% | – | 5% | 1%[c] | 12% |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 12–15 Mar 2018 | 1,015 | 36% | 27% | 21% | 3% | 4% | 3% | – | 6% | 1%[c] | 9% |
| ICM | BBC Wales | 8–25 Feb 2018 | 1,001 | 36% | 21% | 22% | – | 6% | 2% | – | 8% | 3% | 14% |
| Alyn and Deeside by-election[8] | |||||||||||||
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 21–24 Nov 2017 | 1,016 | 38% | 27% | 18% | 2% | 5% | 3% | – | 4% | 2%[f] | 11% |
| Jane Dodds officially becomes leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats[9] | |||||||||||||
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 4–7 Sep 2017 | 1,011 | 40% | 23% | 19% | 3% | 5% | 3% | – | 5% | 2%[g] | 17% |
| 2017 United Kingdom general election | |||||||||||||
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 29–31 May 2017 | 1,014 | 38% | 27% | 17% | 3% | 6% | 2% | – | 6% | 2%[h] | 11% |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 18–21 May 2017 | 1,025 | 37% | 26% | 19% | 3% | 5% | 3% | – | 5% | 1% | 11% |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 5–7 May 2017 | 1,018 | 31% | 32% | 20% | 3% | 6% | 3% | – | 5% | 2%[h] | 1% |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 19–21 Apr 2017 | 1,029 | 27% | 28% | 20% | 3% | 6% | 5% | – | 9% | 2%[c] | 1% |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 3–6 Jan 2017 | 1,034 | 28% | 22% | 20% | 4% | 7% | 2% | – | 14% | 1% | 6% |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 18–21 Sep 2016 | 1,001 | 29% | 22% | 21% | 4% | 6% | 3% | – | 13% | 3%[i] | 7% |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 30 Jun – 4 Jul 2016 | 1,010 | 29% | 18% | 24% | 3% | 6% | 4% | – | 15% | 3%[j] | 5% |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 30 May – 2 Jun 2016 | 1,017 | 32% | 18% | 21% | 4% | 6% | 4% | – | 14% | 0% | 11% |
| 2016 election | 5 May 2016 | – | 31.5% | 18.8% | 20.8% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 3.0% | – | 13.0% | 2.1% | 10.6% | |
Leadership polling
[edit]At various dates in the run up to the 2021 Senedd election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge the opinions that voters hold towards political leaders. Results of these polls are displayed in this article. The polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules.
The date range for these opinion polls is from 2019 to 2021, with the exception of Welsh party leaders where the entire polling history is shown.
Most approval polling in Wales is carried out by YouGov/Cardiff University. A single score is then given to each figure, based on where the most common answer for a leader lies, with 0 representing Strongly Dislike and 10 representing Strongly Like.
Welsh party leaders
[edit]Mark Drakeford
[edit]The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Mark Drakeford, leader of Welsh Labour and First Minister of Wales.
| Date from | Date to | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Question wording | Score (0–10) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 March 2021 | 19 March 2021 | YouGov | 1,174 | Like/Dislike | 5.7[11] |
| 3 April 2020 | 7 April 2020 | YouGov | 1,008 | Like/Dislike | 4[12] |
| 29 May 2020 | 1 June 2020 | YouGov | 1,021 | Like/Dislike | 5.1[13] |
| 28 August 2020 | 4 September 2020 | YouGov | 1,110 | Like/Dislike | 5.3[14] |
| 19 February 2019 | 22 February 2019 | YouGov | 1,025 | Like/Dislike | 3.9[15] |
| 16 May 2019 | 20 May 2019 | YouGov | 1,009 | Like/Dislike | 3.8[16] |
| 10 October 2019 | 14 October 2019 | YouGov | 1,032 | Like/Dislike | 3.5[17] |
| 31 October 2019 | 4 November 2019 | YouGov | 1,136 | Like/Dislike | 3.7[18] |
| 22 November 2019 | 25 November 2019 | YouGov | 1,116 | Like/Dislike | 3.9[19] |
| 6 December 2019 | 9 December 2019 | YouGov | 1,020 | Like/Dislike | 3.2[20] |
| 12 March 2018 | 15 March 2018 | YouGov | 1,015 | Like/Dislike | 3.8[21] |
| 30 October 2018 | 2 November 2018 | YouGov | 1,031 | Like/Dislike | 4[22] |
Paul Davies
[edit]The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Paul Davies, the former leader of the Welsh Conservatives and the former Leader of the Opposition in Wales. He resigned as Leader of the Welsh Conservatives and Leader of the Opposition on 23 January 2021, after it was exposed that he was involved in an incident which possibly broke Welsh COVID-19 regulations in December 2020.[23] Andrew RT Davies became the new leader of the Welsh Conservatives and Leader of the Opposition in Wales on 24 January 2021.
| Date from | Date to | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Question wording | Score (0–10) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 April 2020 | 7 April 2020 | YouGov | 1,008 | Like/Dislike | 4[12] |
| 29 May 2020 | 1 June 2020 | YouGov | 1,021 | Like/Dislike | 3.7[13] |
| 28 August 2020 | 4 September 2020 | YouGov | 1,110 | Like/Dislike | 3.7[14] |
| 19 February 2019 | 22 February 2019 | YouGov | 1,025 | Like/Dislike | 3.5[15] |
| 16 May 2019 | 20 May 2019 | YouGov | 1,009 | Like/Dislike | 3[16] |
| 10 October 2019 | 14 October 2019 | YouGov | 1,032 | Like/Dislike | 2.8[17] |
| 31 October 2019 | 4 November 2019 | YouGov | 1,136 | Like/Dislike | 4[18] |
| 22 November 2019 | 25 November 2019 | YouGov | 1,116 | Like/Dislike | 3.4[19] |
| 6 December 2019 | 9 December 2019 | YouGov | 1,020 | Like/Dislike | 3.0[20] |
| 30 October 2018 | 2 November 2018 | YouGov | 1,031 | Like/Dislike | 3.7[22] |
Adam Price
[edit]The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Adam Price, leader of Plaid Cymru.
| Date from | Date to | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Question wording | Score (0–10) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 April 2020 | 7 April 2020 | YouGov | 1,008 | Like/Dislike | 4.9[12] |
| 29 May 2020 | 1 June 2020 | YouGov | 1,021 | Like/Dislike | 4.8[13] |
| 28 August 2020 | 4 September 2020 | YouGov | 1,110 | Like/Dislike | 4.7[14] |
| 19 February 2019 | 22 February 2019 | YouGov | 1,025 | Like/Dislike | 4.6[15] |
| 16 May 2019 | 20 May 2019 | YouGov | 1,009 | Like/Dislike | 3.9[16] |
| 10 October 2019 | 14 October 2019 | YouGov | 1,032 | Like/Dislike | 3.6[17] |
| 31 October 2019 | 4 November 2019 | YouGov | 1,136 | Like/Dislike | 4.2[18] |
| 22 November 2019 | 25 November 2019 | YouGov | 1,116 | Like/Dislike | 4.4[19] |
| 6 December 2019 | 9 December 2019 | YouGov | 1,020 | Like/Dislike | 4.0[20] |
| 30 October 2018 | 2 November 2018 | YouGov | 1,031 | Like/Dislike | 4.3[22] |
Jane Dodds
[edit]The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Jane Dodds, the leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats.
| Date from | Date to | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Question wording | Score (0–10) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 May 2019 | 20 May 2019 | YouGov | 1,009 | Like/Dislike | 3.4[16] |
| 10 October 2019 | 14 October 2019 | YouGov | 1,032 | Like/Dislike | 3.7[17] |
| 31 October 2019 | 4 November 2019 | YouGov | 1,136 | Like/Dislike | 4.2[18] |
| 22 November 2019 | 25 November 2019 | YouGov | 1,116 | Like/Dislike | 3.4[19] |
| 6 December 2019 | 9 December 2019 | YouGov | 1,020 | Like/Dislike | 3.2[20] |
| 30 October 2018 | 2 November 2018 | YouGov | 1,031 | Like/Dislike | 3.8[22] |
Mark Reckless
[edit]The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Mark Reckless, leader of the Brexit Party.
| Date from | Date to | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Question wording | Score (0–10) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 May 2019 | 20 May 2019 | YouGov | 1,009 | Like/Dislike | 2.6[16] |
| 10 October 2019 | 14 October 2019 | YouGov | 1,032 | Like/Dislike | 2.8[17] |
| 31 October 2019 | 4 November 2019 | YouGov | 1,136 | Like/Dislike | 2.8[18] |
| 22 November 2019 | 25 November 2019 | YouGov | 1,116 | Like/Dislike | 2.4[19] |
| 6 December 2019 | 9 December 2019 | YouGov | 1,020 | Like/Dislike | 2.5[20] |
Neil Hamilton
[edit]The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Neil Hamilton, leader of UKIP.
| Date from | Date to | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Question wording | Score (0–10) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 October 2019 | 14 October 2019 | YouGov | 1,032 | Like/Dislike | 2.2[17] |
UK party leaders
[edit]Boris Johnson
[edit]The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Boris Johnson, leader of the Conservative Party and prime minister of the United Kingdom.
| Date from | Date to | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Question wording | Score (0–10) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 March 2021 | 19 March 2021 | YouGov | 1,174 | Like/Dislike | 3.9[11] |
| 3 April 2020 | 7 April 2020 | YouGov | 1,008 | Like/Dislike | 5.3[12] |
| 29 May 2020 | 1 June 2020 | YouGov | 1,021 | Like/Dislike | 4.1[13] |
| 28 August 2020 | 4 September 2020 | YouGov | 1,110 | Like/Dislike | 3.9[14] |
| 10 October 2019 | 14 October 2019 | YouGov | 1,032 | Like/Dislike | 4[17] |
| 31 October 2019 | 4 November 2019 | YouGov | 1,136 | Like/Dislike | 4[18] |
| 22 November 2019 | 25 November 2019 | YouGov | 1,116 | Like/Dislike | 3.9[19] |
| 6 December 2019 | 9 December 2019 | YouGov | 1,020 | Like/Dislike | 3.8[20] |
Keir Starmer
[edit]The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Keir Starmer, the leader of the Labour Party and Leader of the Opposition.
| Date from | Date to | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Question wording | Score (0–10) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 May 2020 | 1 June 2020 | YouGov | 1,021 | Like/Dislike | 5.6[13] |
| 28 August 2020 | 4 September 2020 | YouGov | 1,110 | Like/Dislike | 5.1[14] |
Ed Davey
[edit]The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Ed Davey, the leader of the Liberal Democrats.
| Date from | Date to | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Question wording | Score (0–10) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 August 2020 | 4 September 2020 | YouGov | 1,110 | Like/Dislike | 3.7[14] |
Nigel Farage
[edit]The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Nigel Farage, the leader of the Brexit Party.
| Date from | Date to | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Question wording | Score (0–10) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 May 2019 | 20 May 2019 | YouGov | 1,009 | Like/Dislike | 3.7[16] |
| 10 October 2019 | 14 October 2019 | YouGov | 1,032 | Like/Dislike | 3.1[17] |
| 31 October 2019 | 4 November 2019 | YouGov | 1,136 | Like/Dislike | 3.1[18] |
| 22 November 2019 | 25 November 2019 | YouGov | 1,116 | Like/Dislike | 2.9[19] |
| 6 December 2019 | 9 December 2019 | YouGov | 1,020 | Like/Dislike | 2.8[20] |
Siân Berry
[edit]The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Siân Berry, co-leader of the Green Party.
| Date from | Date to | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Question wording | Score (0–10) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 May 2019 | 20 May 2019 | YouGov | 1,009 | Like/Dislike | 4.2[16] |
| 10 October 2019 | 14 October 2019 | YouGov | 1,032 | Like/Dislike | 3.6[17] |
| 31 October 2019 | 4 November 2019 | YouGov | 1,136 | Like/Dislike | 3.9[18] |
| 22 November 2019 | 25 November 2019 | YouGov | 1,116 | Like/Dislike | 4.0[19] |
| 6 December 2019 | 9 December 2019 | YouGov | 1,020 | Like/Dislike | 3.9[20] |
Jonathan Bartley
[edit]The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Jonathan Bartley, co-leader of the Green Party.
| Date from | Date to | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Question wording | Score (0–10) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 May 2019 | 20 May 2019 | YouGov | 1,009 | Like/Dislike | 3.6[16] |
| 10 October 2019 | 14 October 2019 | YouGov | 1,032 | Like/Dislike | 3.2[17] |
| 31 October 2019 | 4 November 2019 | YouGov | 1,136 | Like/Dislike | 4.3[18] |
| 22 November 2019 | 25 November 2019 | YouGov | 1,116 | Like/Dislike | 3.9[19] |
| 6 December 2019 | 9 December 2019 | YouGov | 1,020 | Like/Dislike | 3.6[20] |
Approval ratings for former party leaders
[edit]Jeremy Corbyn
[edit]The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Jeremy Corbyn, the former leader of the Labour Party.
| Date from | Date to | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Question wording | Score (0–10) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 May 2019 | 20 May 2019 | YouGov | 1,009 | Like/Dislike | 3[16] |
| 10 October 2019 | 14 October 2019 | YouGov | 1,032 | Like/Dislike | 3[17] |
| 31 October 2019 | 4 November 2019 | YouGov | 1,136 | Like/Dislike | 3.4[18] |
| 22 November 2019 | 25 November 2019 | YouGov | 1,116 | Like/Dislike | 3.8[19] |
| 6 December 2019 | 9 December 2019 | YouGov | 1,020 | Like/Dislike | 3.7[20] |
Jo Swinson
[edit]The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Jo Swinson, the former leader of the Liberal Democrats.
| Date from | Date to | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Question wording | Score (0–10) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 October 2019 | 14 October 2019 | YouGov | 1,032 | Like/Dislike | 3.5[17] |
| 31 October 2019 | 4 November 2019 | YouGov | 1,136 | Like/Dislike | 3.3[18] |
| 22 November 2019 | 25 November 2019 | YouGov | 1,116 | Like/Dislike | 3.3[19] |
| 6 December 2019 | 9 December 2019 | YouGov | 1,020 | Like/Dislike | 3.0[20] |
Topical polling
[edit]Coronavirus handling
[edit]The following polls have asked people how well they think key figures have handled the coronavirus pandemic: very well, fairly well, fairly badly, very badly, or don't know. They are then provided with a Total Well or Total Badly figure.
| Date(s) conducted |
Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Mark Drakeford | Matt Hancock | Boris Johnson | Rishi Sunak | Vaughan Gething | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Well | Total Badly | Net | Total Well | Total Badly | Net | Total Well | Total Badly | Net | Total Well | Total Badly | Net | Total Well | Total Badly | Net | |||
| 28 Aug – 4 Sep[14] | YouGov/Cardiff University | 1,110 | 57 | 22 | 35 | 24 | 48 | -24 | 34 | 56 | -22 | 50 | 25 | 25 | 35 | 26 | 9 |
| 29 May – 1 Jun[13] | YouGov/Cardiff University | 1,021 | 49 | 25 | 24 | 29 | 47 | -18 | 37 | 57 | -20 | 51 | 23 | 28 | 32 | 27 | 5 |
| 3 Apr – 7 Apr[12] | YouGov/Cardiff University | 1,008 | 30 | 23 | 7 | 50 | 22 | 28 | 63 | 29 | 34 | 55 | 14 | 41 | 29 | 18 | 11 |
Average popularity
[edit]The following averages are taken from the above breakdown of individual figures' popularity. Note for some figures polling exists prior to 2018 which is not shown here. Some figures may only have a small number of surveys.
| Figure | Average Score (0–10) | 2020 Average Score (0–10) |
|---|---|---|
| Keir Starmer | 5.35 | 5.35 |
| Adam Price | 4.34 | 4.8 |
| Mark Drakeford | 4.018 | 4.8 |
| Boris Johnson | 4.014 | 4.433 |
| Siân Berry | 3.92 | |
| Jonathan Bartley | 3.72 | |
| Ed Davey | 3.7 | 3.7 |
| Jane Dodds | 3.617 | |
| Jeremy Corbyn | 3.38 | |
| Jo Swinson | 3.275 | |
| Paul Davies | 3.18 | 3.8 |
| Nigel Farage | 3.12 | |
| Mark Reckless | 2.62 | |
| Neil Hamilton | 2.2 |
Seat projections
[edit]Professor Roger Scully of Cardiff University's Wales Governance Centre provides seat projections based on individual opinion polls at regular intervals on his blog, known as Elections in Wales.
| Pollster | Client(s)/Publisher(s) | Date(s) conducted |
Sample size |
Lab | Con | Plaid Cymru |
Abolish | Lib Dem | Reform UK[a] | Green | UKIP | Other | Majority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 election | 6 May 2021 | – | 30 | 16 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 short | |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 18–21 Apr 2021 | 1,142 | 27 | 14 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 0 | – | – | – | 4 short |
| Opinium | Sky News | 9–19 Apr 2021 | 2,005 | 29 | 19 | 10 | – | 1 | – | – | 1 | – | 2 short |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 16–19 Mar 2021 | 1,174 | 22 | 19 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 0 | – | – | – | 9 short |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 19–22 Feb 2021 | 1,004 | 24 | 16 | 14 | 5 | 1 | 0 | – | – | – | 7 short |
| ICM | BBC Wales | 28 Jan – 21 Feb 2021 | 1,001 | 30 | 13 | 15 | – | 1 | – | – | 1 | – | 1 short |
| Andrew RT Davies officially becomes leader of the Welsh Conservatives[2] | |||||||||||||
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 11–14 Jan 2021 | 1,018 | 26 | 16 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 0 | – | – | – | 5 short |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 26–30 Oct 2020 | 1,013 | 28 | 16 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 0 | – | – | – | 3 short |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 28 Aug – 4 Sep 2020 | 1,110 | 25 | 19 | 15 | – | 1 | 0 | – | – | – | 6 short |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 29 May – 1 Jun 2020 | 1,021 | 25 | 19 | 15 | – | 1 | 0 | – | – | – | 6 short |
| Survation | Centre for Welsh Studies | 22–31 May 2020 | 1,051 | 29 | 13 | 12 | – | 1 | 5 | – | – | – | 2 short |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 4–7 Apr 2020 | 1,008 | 23 | 26 | 10 | – | 1 | 0 | – | – | – | 5 short |
| ICM | BBC Wales | 4–22 Feb 2020 | 1,000 | 21 | 20 | 18 | – | 1 | 0 | – | – | – | 10 short |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 20–26 Jan 2020 | 1,037 | 24 | 22 | 13 | – | 1 | 0 | – | – | – | 7 short |
| 2019 United Kingdom general election | |||||||||||||
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 6–9 Dec 2019 | 1,020 | 25 | 19 | 11 | – | 1 | 4 | – | – | – | 6 short |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 25–28 Nov 2019 | 1,116 | 25 | 17 | 12 | – | 1 | 5 | – | – | – | 6 short |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 31 Oct – 4 Nov 2019 | 1,136 | 18 | 18 | 15 | – | 2 | 7 | – | – | – | Tie |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 10–14 Oct 2019 | 1,032 | 18 | 14 | 13 | – | 6 | 9 | – | – | – | 13 short |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 23–26 Jul 2019 | 1,071 | 17 | 11 | 15 | – | 7 | 10 | – | – | – | 14 short |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 16–20 May 2019 | 1,009 | 20 | 7 | 13 | – | 2 | 13 | 5 | – | – | 11 short |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 2–5 Apr 2019 | 1,025 | 23 | 15 | 16 | – | 1 | 4 | – | 1 | – | 8 short |
| ICM | BBC Wales | 7–23 Feb 2019 | 1,000 | 25 | 14 | 19 | – | 1 | – | – | 1 | – | 6 short |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 19–22 Feb 2019 | 1,025 | 23 | 17 | 16 | – | 2 | – | – | 2 | – | 8 short |
| Sky Data | Cardiff University | 7–14 Dec 2018 | 1,014 | 29 | 13 | 14 | 2 | 1 | – | – | 1 | – | 2 short |
| Mark Drakeford officially becomes leader of Welsh Labour and First Minister[3][4] | |||||||||||||
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 4–7 Dec 2018 | 1,024 | 29 | 16 | 13 | – | 1 | – | – | 1 | – | 2 short |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 30 Oct – 2 Nov 2018 | 1,031 | 29 | 18 | 11 | – | 1 | – | – | 1 | – | 2 short |
| Adam Price officially becomes leader of Plaid Cymru[5] | |||||||||||||
| Paul Davies officially becomes leader of the Welsh Conservatives[6] | |||||||||||||
| Gareth Bennett officially becomes leader of UKIP Wales[7] | |||||||||||||
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 28 Jun – 2 Jul 2018 | 1,031 | 28 | 15 | 15 | – | 1 | – | – | 1 | – | 3 short |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 12–15 Mar 2018 | 1,015 | 28 | 17 | 13 | – | 1 | – | – | 1 | – | 3 short |
| ICM | BBC Wales | 8–25 Feb 2018 | 1,001 | 30 | 13 | 15 | – | 1 | – | – | 1 | – | 1 short |
| Alyn and Deeside by-election[8] | |||||||||||||
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 21–24 Nov 2017 | 1,016 | 30 | 18 | 10 | – | 1 | – | – | 1 | – | 1 short |
| Jane Dodds officially becomes leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats[9] | |||||||||||||
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 4–7 Sep 2017 | 1,011 | 31 | 16 | 11 | – | 1 | – | – | 1 | – | 2 |
| 2017 United Kingdom general election | |||||||||||||
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 19–21 Apr 2017 | 1,029 | 21 | 18 | 14 | – | 2 | – | – | 5 | – | 10 short |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 3–6 Jan 2017 | 1,034 | 22 | 14 | 14 | – | 2 | – | – | 8 | – | 9 short |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 18–21 Sep 2016 | 1,001 | 26 | 14 | 12 | – | 1 | – | – | 7 | – | 5 short |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 30 Jun – 4 Jul 2016 | 1,010 | 25 | 11 | 15 | – | 1 | – | – | 8 | – | 6 short |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 30 May – 2 Jun 2016 | 1,017 | 27 | 11 | 14 | – | 1 | – | – | 7 | – | 4 short |
| 2016 election | 5 May 2016 | – | 29 | 11 | 12 | – | 1 | – | – | 7 | – | 2 short | |
See also
[edit]- Opinion polling for the 2024 United Kingdom general election in Wales
- Opinion polling for the 2021 Scottish Parliament election
- Opinion polling for the 2022 Northern Ireland Assembly election
- Opinion polling for the 2016 National Assembly for Wales election
Notes
[edit]- ^ a b c Known as the Brexit Party (Plaid Brexit) from 2018 until January 2021.
- ^ Including Propel with 1%
- ^ a b c d e Including the Welsh Christian Party with 1%
- ^ Including the Socialist Labour Party and Welsh Christian Party with 1%
- ^ Including the BNP and Welsh Christian Party with 1%
- ^ Including the Communist Party of Britain with 1%
- ^ Including the BNP with 1%
- ^ a b Including the Socialist Labour Party with 1%
- ^ Including the Welsh Christian Party, BNP and Communist Party of Britain with 1%
- ^ Including the Welsh Christian Party and Communist Party of Britain with 1%
References
[edit]- ^ "16 and 17 year olds get right to vote - a historic day for democracy in Wales". Senedd Cymru. 27 November 2019. Retrieved 19 January 2021.
- ^ a b c "Andrew RT Davies returns as Welsh Conservatives leader". BBC News. 24 January 2021. Retrieved 24 January 2021.
- ^ a b c "Welsh Labour leadership: Mark Drakeford set to be Wales' first minister". BBC News. 6 December 2018. Retrieved 23 May 2019.
- ^ a b c "Wales new First Minister Mark Drakeford is sworn in". BBC News. 13 December 2018. Retrieved 23 May 2019.
- ^ a b c "Plaid Cymru leadership contest: Adam Price wins". BBC News. 28 September 2018. Retrieved 23 May 2019.
- ^ a b c "Paul Davies wins Welsh Tory assembly group leadership poll". BBC News. 6 September 2018. Retrieved 23 May 2019.
- ^ a b c "UKIP Wales members elect Gareth Bennett as assembly leader". BBC News. 10 August 2018. Retrieved 23 May 2019.
- ^ a b c "Jack Sargeant wins Alyn and Deeside by-election". BBC News. 7 February 2018. Retrieved 23 May 2019.
- ^ a b c "Jane Dodds is new Welsh Liberal Democrat leader". BBC News. 3 November 2017. Retrieved 21 May 2019.
- ^ Jones, Helen; Holzinger, Owen (June 2016). Research Briefing 2016 Assembly Election Results (PDF). senedd.wales: National Assembly for Wales Research Service.
{{cite book}}: CS1 maint: date and year (link) - ^ a b McDonnell, Adam (25 March 2021). "2021 Senedd race narrows with six weeks to go". YouGov. Retrieved 6 April 2021.
- ^ a b c d e "The April Welsh Political Barometer Poll" (PDF). YouGov. 9 April 2020.
- ^ a b c d e f "The June Welsh Political Barometer Poll" (PDF). YouGov. 4 June 2020.
- ^ a b c d e f g "The September Welsh Political Barometer Poll" (PDF). YouGov. 14 September 2020.
- ^ a b c "The February Welsh Political Barometer Poll" (PDF). YouGov. 25 February 2019.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i "The May Welsh Political Barometer Poll" (PDF). YouGov. 20 May 2019.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l "The October Welsh Political Barometer Poll" (PDF). YouGov. 15 October 2019.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k "The November Welsh Political Barometer Poll" (PDF). YouGov. 17 November 2020.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k "The November Welsh Political Barometer Poll" (PDF). YouGov. 25 November 2019.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k "The December Welsh Political Barometer Poll" (PDF). YouGov. 9 December 2019.
- ^ "The March Welsh Political Barometer Poll" (PDF). YouGov. 19 March 2018.
- ^ a b c d "The November Welsh Political Barometer Poll" (PDF). YouGov. 6 November 2018.
- ^ "Tory Senedd leader Paul Davies quits over alcohol row". BBC News. 23 January 2021. Retrieved 23 January 2021.
External links
[edit]- Roger Scully's Elections in Wales – Etholiadau yng Nghymru
- Britain Elects Senedd voting intention archive (2015–present)
- Results of the 2016 National Assembly for Wales election
- Elections in Wales Blog at Cardiff University
- YouGov political figures popularity ratings
| Senedd elections | |
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| Leadership approval |
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| Referendums | |
