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October 2024 Bulgarian parliamentary election

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October 2024 Bulgarian parliamentary election
Bulgaria
← June 2024 27 October 2024 Next →
All 240 seats in the National Assembly
121 seats needed for a majority
Turnout38.94% (Increase 4.51pp)
Party Leader Vote % Seats +/–
GERB–SDS Boyko Borisov 25.52 69 +1
PP–DB Kiril Petkov 13.74 37 −2
Revival Kostadin Kostadinov 12.92 35 −3
DPS–NN Delyan Peevski 11.17 30 New
BSP–OL Atanas Zafirov 7.32 20 +1
APS Dzhevdet Chakarov 7.23 19 New
ITN Slavi Trifonov 6.56 18 +2
MECh Radostin Vasilev 4.44 12 +12
This lists parties that won seats. See the complete results below.
Result by constituency
Prime Minister before Prime Minister after
Dimitar Glavchev
(caretaker)
Independent		 Rosen Zhelyazkov
GERB
Politics of Bulgaria
Constitution
Presidency
  • Executive
  • Legislative
Major political parties
Recent elections
Administrative divisions
Foreign relations

Snap parliamentary elections were held in Bulgaria on 27 October 2024,[1][2] after all three attempts to form a government following the latest June 2024 elections failed. This was the country's sixth snap election since 2021. This series of snap elections is the result of a political crisis affecting the country.

Eight parties passed the electoral threshold to win representation in the National Assembly, while Velichie came just 21 votes short to win representation. GERB–SDS had the best results by winning 25.5% of the vote, but were required to form an alliance with at least two other elected parties in order to achieve a voting majority in the National Assembly.[3] The new elected 51st Parliament replaced the 50th Parliament when all elected members were sworn in on 11 November.[4] After 11 voting rounds, Natalia Kiselova (BSP–OL) was elected as speaker of the National Assembly on 6 December.[5] President Rumen Radev granted the first negotiation mandate to the largest party GERB-SDS on 15 January,[6] which formed a minority government alongside BSP and ITN, with support from APS (Dogan). The government is led by GERB politician Rosen Zhelyazkov.[7][8]

The unelected party Velichie and all elected parties, except DPS–NN (Peevski), contested the results and conduct of the parliamentary election by submitting complaint cases to the Constitutional Court; and the court subsequently appointed an independent expert panel with a given deadline on 10 January 2025 to investigate all complaints.[9] The judges of the Constitutional Court are slated to issue their ruling of the case in the beginning of February 2025.[10]

Background

[edit]
See also: 2021–present Bulgarian political crisis, 2023 Bulgarian parliamentary election, and June 2024 Bulgarian parliamentary election

Elections and government breakdown

[edit]

Following several snap elections, the National Assembly had failed to put together a long-lasting government since 'anti-corruption' parties made a breakthrough in the April 2021 election.[11][12] The 2023 election saw little change from 2022, with Boyko Borisov's centre-right GERB–SDS narrowly coming in first place, above the centrist PP–DB alliance. The far-right Revival (VAZ) and the populist There is Such a People (ITN) made gains, with the latter re-entering the Assembly after it failed to reach the electoral threshold in 2022.[13][14]

On 22 May 2023 the PP- and GERB-led alliances agreed to form a government with a rotational premiership. Nikolai Denkov, PP's candidate, would be the Prime Minister for the first nine months of the government and Mariya Gabriel, the GERB candidate, would serve as deputy prime minister and foreign affairs minister. After nine months, the two would switch positions.[15] After nine months, the switch failed to materialise with negotiations breaking down,[16][17][18][19] and no government could be formed. Dimitar Glachev was appointed as caretaker prime minister,[20] and elections were scheduled for 9 June 2024.[21][22]

June elections

[edit]

The June 2024 elections, held at the same time as the European Parliament elections, had the lowest turnout (33%) since the end of communist rule in 1989.[11] It resulted in GERB–SDS winning most of the votes and 68 seats, with no party or alliance obtaining enough seats to form a majority in the National Assembly.[23] The new elected 50th Parliament replaced the 49th Parliament,[24] when all elected members were sworn in on 19 June.[25] Government formation attempts were given to GERB, PP–DB and There is Such a People (ITN), with the final attempt failing on 5 August.[26][27][28]

As a consequence, President Rumen Radev instead appointed the Vice President of the Bulgarian National Audit Office, Goritsa Grancharova-Kozhareva, as the next caretaker prime minister on 9 August.[29] Grancharova-Kozhareva was granted ten days to form a proposal for the next caretaker government to be appointed on 20 August, and the upcoming next parliamentary elections were scheduled for 20 October 2024.[30] Grancharova-Kozhareva made the controversial decision to propose that the incumbent minister of the interior, Kalin Stoyanov, should remain in his role, but this was opposed by President Radev. Radev rejected the government proposal, delaying the upcoming election.[31]

Following the rejection of Grancharova-Kozhareva, Radev re-appointed Dimitar Glavchev as the caretaker prime minister,[32] and his government proposal was sworn in on 27 August, and the elections were set for the 27 October.[33][34]

Changes in the Assembly's composition prior to the election

[edit]

One MP was expelled from the BSP by its national council on 18 June, before being sworn in.[35]

The Velichie parliamentary group comprised 13 MPs after the election. On 5 July, six MPs broke away from the group, dissolving it.[36]

A rift in Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS) surrounding Delyan Peevski saw 17 MPs expelled and a further eight leave.[37]

As of the end of July 2024, the composition of the Assembly was as follows:

Composition of the 50th Parliament
(by the end of July 2024)[38]

  GERB-SDS (68 MPs)
  PP–DB (39 MPs)
  VAZ (38 MPs)
  DPS (22 MPs)
  BSPzB (17 MPs)
  ITN (16 MPs)
  Independents expelled from DPS
(25 MPs, led by Ahmed Dogan)[37]
  Independents expelled from the former Velichie
(7 MPs, led by Nikolay Markov (politician) [bg])[36]
  Independents from the dissolved Velichie
(6 MPs, led by Ivelin Mikhailov [bg])[36]
  Independent expelled from BSPzB
(2 MPs, Kaloyan Metodiev [bg] and Mikhail Stavrev)[35]

Electoral system

[edit]

The 240 members of the National Assembly were elected by open list, proportional representation from 31 multi-member constituencies ranging in size from four to nineteen seats. The electoral threshold was 4% for all parties or electoral coalitions, with seats allocated according to the largest remainder method using a Hare quota.[39][40]

Parties

[edit]

Contesting parties and coalitions

[edit]

Below is the official list of parties and coalitions that registered lists for the Bulgarian Parliamentary elections.[41][42] Boxes shaded in grey are not officially parties in the coalitions according to the electoral commission, but they are key groups in each alliance.

It was reported that despite suggesting they could run, Volt, Bulgarian National Union and VMRO did not submit their lists in time to partake in the elections.[43] NDPS also wished to partake, but its registration was deleted.[44]

# Party or coalition Ideology Leader 2024 result
Votes (%) Seats
1 Democrats for Responsibility, Solidarity and Tolerance Turkish minority interests
Erdoğanism 		Taner Alimolla [bg] DNP
2 People's Voice Right-wing populism Svetoslav Vitkov 0.30%
0 / 240
3 Socialist Party "Bulgarian Way" [bg] Left-wing nationalism
Euroscepticism 		Angel Dimov [bg] DNP
4 Greatness Bulgarian nationalism
Anti-corruption 		Albena Pekova 4.52%
13 / 240
5 Bulgars Bulgarian nationalism
National conservatism 		Georgi Georgiev-Goti 0.04%
0 / 240
6 My Country Bulgaria Bulgarian Left Democratic socialism Boyan Kirov Solidary Bulgaria
United Social-Democracy [bg] Social democracy Yordan Gergov
My Country Bulgaria Anti-Western sentiment
Left-wing nationalism 		Ivaylo Drazhev DNE
7 There is Such a People Populism
Social conservatism 		Slavi Trifonov 5.79%
16 / 240
8 DPS – A New Beginning Movement for Rights and Freedoms Turkish minority interests
Liberalism 		Delyan Peevski 16.56%
47 / 240
New Leaders Direct democracy Georgi Tityukov DNE
Bulgarian Voice National conservatism
Euro-atlanticism 		Georgi Popov 0.15%
0 / 240
9 Brigade [bg] Anti-establishment Arben Khavalyov [bg] DNP
10 Party of the Greens [bg] Green politics
Left-wing nationalism 		Vladimir Nikolov 0.25%
0 / 240
11 Pravoto [bg] Populism Maria Koleva DNP
12 Revival Ultranationalism
Right-wing populism 		Kostadin Kostadinov 13.38%
38 / 240
13 Alliance for Rights and Freedoms Just Bulgaria United Patriots [bg] (SBOR) Dimitar Iliev DNP
Agrarian People's Union Agrarianism Rumen Yonchev Blue Bulgaria
DPS dissidents Liberalism
Turkish minority interests 		Dzhevdet Chakarov DNE
14 Bulgarian National Union – New Democracy Ultranationalism Boyan Rasate [bg] 0.10%
0 / 240
15 Bulgarian Union for Direct Democracy [bg] Direct democracy
Bulgarian nationalism 		Georgi Nedelchev [bg] 0.04%
0 / 240
16 Blue Bulgaria Conservative Union of the Right National conservatism
Anti-communism 		Petar Moskov 1.52%
0 / 240
Bulgarian Democratic Forum [bg] National conservatism
Anti-communism 		Zhaklin Toleva [bg]
Democratic Action Movement Liberal conservatism Stefan Ivanov
Bulgarian New Democracy Liberal conservatism Valeri Georgiev
Conservative Bulgaria National conservatism Boris Yachev
Radical-Democratic Party Social conservatism
Anti-communism 		Zahari Petrov
United Agrarians Agrarianism
Liberal conservatism 		Vacant DNP
17 Morality, Unity, Honour Anti-corruption
Social conservatism 		Radostin Vasilev 2.98%
0 / 240
18 GERB–SDS GERB Social conservatism
Pro-Europeanism 		Boyko Borisov 23.99%
68 / 240
SDS Christian democracy
Anti-communism 		Rumen Hristov
George's Day Movement National conservatism
Bulgarian nationalism 		Lyuben Dilov Jr.
19 Attack Bulgarian nationalism
Ultranationalism 		Volen Siderov DNP
20 People's Party "Truth and Only the Truth" [bg] Anti-vaccination
Anti-establishment 		Ventsislav Angelov [bg] 0.11%
0 / 240
21 Direct Democracy [bg] Bulgarian nationalism
Direct democracy 		Petar Klisarov [bg] 0.24%
0 / 240
22 Free Voters Green Union Green politics Danail Dimov DNP
Republicans for Bulgaria Conservatism
Economic liberalism 		Tsvetan Tsvetanov
Union of Free Democrats Liberal conservatism Radoslav Katsarov
23 Bulgaria of Labor and Reason [bg] Anti-Western sentiment
Hard Euroscepticism 		Georgi Manolov [bg] DNP
24 Competence, Responsibility and Truth [bg] Right-wing populism Svetozar Saev [bg] We the Citizens
25 Russophiles for Bulgaria Bulgarian Communist Party Communism Vladimir Hristov 0.11%
(NB)
0 / 240
Party of the Bulgarian Communists Communism
Marxism–Leninism 		Ivan Penchev
Russophiles for the
Revival of the Fatherland 		Russophilia
National conservatism 		Valentin Grigorov
26 PP–DB We Continue the Change Liberalism
Anti-corruption 		Kiril Petkov
Asen Vasilev 		13.92%
39 / 240
Democrats for a Strong Bulgaria Conservatism
Anti-communism 		Atanas Atanasov
Yes, Bulgaria! Liberalism
Anti-corruption 		Hristo Ivanov
27 Bulgarian Rise National conservatism Stefan Yanev 0.56%
0 / 240
28 BSP – United Left Bulgarian Socialist Party Social conservatism
Social democracy 		Atanas Zafirov 6.85%
(BSPzB)
19 / 240
Ecoglasnost Green politics
Environmentalism 		Emil Georgiev [bg]
Political Club "Trakiya" [bg] Left wing nationalism Stefan Nachev
Stand Up.BG Social democracy
Left-wing populism 		Maya Manolova 1.42%
(SB)
0 / 240
Alternative for Bulgarian Revival Social democracy
Social conservatism 		Rumen Petkov 0.69%
(The Left)
0 / 240
Movement 21 Social democracy Tatyana Doncheva
Political Movement "Social Democrats" Social democracy Elena Noneva
Bulgarian Social Democracy – EuroLeft Social democracy Aleksandr Tomov 0.10%
(Rose Coalition)
0 / 240
Communist Party of Bulgaria Marxism–Leninism Alexander Paunov Neutral Bulgaria
Bulgarian Spring [bg] Left-wing nationalism Svetoslav Mandikov We the Citizens
Movement for Social Humanism Progressivism Alexander Radoslavov DNP
European Security and Integration Roma Minority politics Toma Tomov
Union for the Fatherland Left-wing nationalism Vasil Tochkov
Arise Left-wing nationalism Aleksandr Bogdanov
29 Independent Anti-corruption
Pleven localism 		Chavdar Popov DNP

DPS leadership dispute

[edit]

On 27 August, the central leadership organisation of the DPS removed Delyan Peevski as chairman of the party, and seven MPs close to Peevski were expelled from the party. This move has been linked to Ahmed Dogan, MP and honorary chairman of the party.[45][46][47] Peevski called the move unconstitutional,[16] and gained control of the official party website.[48] This follows the rift in the party following the election, where the parliamentary group split.[37] The controversy surrounding Peevski has led to two groups emerging,[49] DPS – A New Beginning[50] and Democracy, Rights and Freedoms,[51] with both groups registering as electoral coalitions with the acronym DPS in order to get around the rules of the electoral commission.[14][52] After DPS–Peevski was recognized to be the legitimate DPS by the Supreme Administrative Court of Bulgaria, DPS–Dogan changed their name to "Alliance for Rights and Freedoms" (АПС instead of ДПС) and registered without listing DPS as a member of the alliance.[53] The DPS mayors split 50:50 between both groups.[54]

Campaign

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Campaign finances

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Ten days prior to the election, it was reported that 1.2 million BGN (US$680k) was spent on advertising in the media, with ITN spending the most, DPS–Peevski second most, and BPS–OL third.[55]

The spending of each electoral group which won seats is as follows:[56]

Party or coalition Spending (in BGN)
PP–DB 1,309,218
DPS – A New Beginning 1,162,812
Revival 996,540
Alliance for Rights and Freedoms 957,722
GERB–SDS 901,518
There is Such a People 758,536
BSP – United Left 706,987
Morality, Unity, Honour 300,000+

Campaign slogans and websites

[edit]

The following list present the official campaign slogans and websites of parties that contested the election:

Party or coalition Slogan Website
DOST For a better future N/A
People's Voice For a future without political garbage! For a more clean and sacred (republic)! N/A
SP "Bulgarian Way" [bg] N/A Website
Greatness From the ashes - to the sun Website
Bulgars Bulgaria above all! Website
My Country Bulgaria Unity creates strength! N/A
There is Such a People The logical choice Website
DPS – A New Beginning It's time for a new beginning Website
Brigade [bg] To Save Bulgaria N/A
Party of the Greens [bg] Vote for the Greens with No. 10 Website
Pravoto [bg] Give a chance for yourself... Vote for Legality! Website
Revival Enough experiments! Its time for Revival! Website
Alliance for Rights and Freedoms To defend democracy and statehood! Website
BNS–ND N/A Website
Bulgarian Union for Direct Democracy [bg] The system has completely failed! It is time for change to come! Website
Blue Bulgaria Believe strongly, act decisively. Website
Morality, Unity, Honour MECH or the mafia! Website
GERB–SDS Security and stability. Website
Attack The attack continues[57] N/A
Truth and Only Truth [bg] Immediate change N/A
Direct Democracy [bg] New system Website
Free Voters Responsible choice N/A
Bulgaria of Labor and Reason [bg] For an independent Bulgaria of labour and reason outside the EU and NATO Website
Competence, Responsibility and Truth [bg] Who will return our fatherland? N/A
Russophiles for Bulgaria Bulgaria is stronger together with Russia! Website
PP–DB Lets care for Bulgaria. Website
BSP – United Left Time for decisions Website

Opinion polls

[edit]
Local regression of polls conducted, excluding "none of the above"

The opinion poll results below were recalculated from the original data by excluding undecided and non-voters.

121 seats are needed for a parliamentary majority and all parties need to pass the 4% threshold to be elected to the National Assembly.

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample GERB–SDS DPS PP–DB Vaz BSP–OL ITN Vel MECh SB Others NOTA Lead
APS DPS–NN BSP L! IsBg
Alpha Research 20–23 Oct 1,000 26.5
76 		7.9
23 		7.4
21 		14.9
42 		14.2
40 		7.2
21 		6.1
17 		2.6
0 		3.8
0 		2.7
0 		6.7 3.0[a] 11.6
Exacta 19–22 Oct 1,070 26.7
76 		8.1
23 		7.3
21 		14.6
41 		14.3
41 		7.5
21 		6
17 		2.6
0 		3.7
0 		2.8
0 		6.3 2.0[a] 12.1
Trend 16–22 Oct 1,002 24.9
70 		7.8
21 		7
19 		14.8
41 		15.2
42 		6.5
18 		6.6
18 		3.6
0 		4
11 		1.7
0 		7.9 4.3[a] 9.7
Gallup International 10–21 Oct 1,007 26.1
70 		7.8
21 		7.6
20 		16.2
43 		14.9
40 		7.1
19 		6.2
16 		3.8
0 		4.1
11 		1.2
0 		4.9 3.4[a] 9.9
MarketLinks 15–20 Oct 1,014 27.2
71 		9.3
23 		8.1
21 		16.0
42 		14.9
39 		7.9
20 		5.2
14 		4.1
10 		1.8
0 		3.1
0 		2.0 2.7[a] 11.2
Sova Haris 11–17 Oct 800 25.6
68 		8.7
23 		6.5
17 		14.7
39 		14.5
38 		9.8
26 		6.8
18 		4.2
11 		3.1
0 		1.6
0 		4.1 2.6[a] 11.2
Mediana 8–13 Oct 978 27.7
74 		9.8
25 		5.6
15 		13.9
37 		15.5
41 		10.0
26 		7.9
21 		– 2.7
0 		3.4
0 		3.7 11.4[a] 12.2
Gallup International 28 Sep – 6 Oct 806 25.7
72 		8.3
23 		6.9
19 		16.6
46 		15.4
43 		7.1
20 		6.3
17 		3.2
0 		3.8
0 		1.1
0 		5.7 3.1[a] 9.1
Market Links 25 Sep – 1 Oct 1,011 27.1
78 		9.9
29 		7.5
22 		16.5
48 		15.6
45 		6.2
18 		3.99
0 		3.8
0 		– – 9.8 2.4[a] 10.6
Trend 17–24 Sep 2024 1,003 24.8
72 		8.5
24 		5.8
16 		15.1
43 		15.6
45 		6.9
20 		6.9
20 		3.4
0 		3.5
0 		1.6
0 		7.9 3.9[a] 9.2
Alpha Research 18–24 Sep 2024 1,000 26.0
75 		8.6
24 		6.6
19 		15.7
44 		15.4
43 		6.8
19 		5.9
16 		3.5
0 		3.0
0 		2.8
0 		5.5 2.6[a] 10.3
11 Sep 2024 DPS splits into APS and DPS–NN
5 Sep 2024 BSP and other leftist parties join to form BSP – OL
Market Links 14–23 Aug 2024 1,038 26.2
76 		18.4
53 		17.1
50 		13.7
40 		7.4
21 		– – 3.8
0 		2.4
0 		– – 8.0 3.0 7.8
Gallup International 1–9 Aug 2024 802 25.2
74 		14.5
42 		15.2
44 		14.2
41 		7.3
21 		– – 6.2
18 		3.6
0 		3.4
0 		– 10.4 2.5[a] 10.0
Market Links 20–28 Jul 2024 1,008 25.8
71 		14.4
40 		17.2
47 		12.3
34 		7.7
21 		– – 5.8
16 		4.2
11 		– – 8.6 2.8 8.6
Market Links 18–25 Jun 2024 1,014 24.4
66 		18.3
50 		16.2
44 		13.8
38 		5.3
14 		– – 5.4
15 		5.0
13 		– – 6.7 5.8 6.1
June 2024 election results 9 Jun 2024 — 24.7
68 		17.1
47 		14.3
39 		13.8
38 		7.1[b]
19 		0.7
0 		1.5[c]
0 		6.0
16 		4.7
13 		3.0
0 		1.6
0 		7.7 –[d] 7.4
  1. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l This poll reported the percentage respondents do not support any party, however the rest of the data was recalculated to exclude these percentages.
  2. ^ As BSP for Bulgaria
  3. ^ As Solidary Bulgaria.
  4. ^ In official election results, None of the above votes don’t count as a proportion of the total vote. In the June 2024 election, they reached a total number of 63,913 or approximately 2.9%, if measured proportionally.

Conduct

[edit]

Allegations of vote buying are common occurrences in the Bulgarian electoral cycle,[58] with allegations of vote buying happening more often in rural areas, which have more poverty and people who are less educated.[59] During the election campaign, a deputy, Ivaylo Mirchev, from PP–DB, claimed that there was widespread vote buying being conducted by DPS–Peevski, claiming people were being paid up to 500 BGN (US$286) per vote.[60] One of the leaders of the list for DPS–Peevski appeared to admit to vote buying in a social media poll.[61]

The interior minister, Atanas Ilkov, told a parliamentary hearing that he had received two alerts of vote buying by 25 September.[62] A national police operation that was set up to target the practice began operating two days later.[63] On 18 October, Ilkov said his ministry had received 259 allegations of vote buying.[64]

Deutsche Welle received reports, especially in Kardzhali Province, that DPS–Peevski was pressuring people to vote for the party in fear of losing their jobs, with already 60 jobs lost in the municipal administration. They also reported that Peevski personally was paying for various small-scale public repairs.[65]

Dzheyhan Ibryamov case

[edit]

On 2 October, the lead candidate of DPS–Dogan in Shumen, Dzheyhan Ibryamov, was arrested by the Prosecutors Office on the charge of attempting to buy vote and influence peddling.[66] Following a request by the Prosecutors Office, the CEC and Chairwoman of the National Assembly, Raya Nazaryan, agreed to lift Ibryamov's immunity as a candidate in the elections.[67] Despite the criminal case against him and his arrest, Ibryamov was still authorised to participate in the elections.[68]

The arrest and criminal prosecution of Ibryamov provoked negative reactions from key DPS–Dogan figures, with the coalition de facto leader, Dzhevdet Chakarov, calling for the cancellation of the upcoming elections.[69]

Post-result reports

[edit]

In identified polling stations with a risk of high levels of controlled or bought votes, GERB and DPS–Peevski were the leading parties.[70]

According to the Institute for the Development of the Public Environment, there were 827 polling stations with this risk, and bTV reported some voters in Blagoevgrad did not deny that there was vote buying occurring.[71] The coordinator of the 'You Count' organisation, which asks voters to report election misconduct, claimed that there were entire municipalities at risk of high levels of bought and controlled votes. He claimed the results did not reflect the will of the Bulgarian citizens because the results were so skewed.[72]

An investigation was released on the state broadcaster, BNT, claimed to show that discrepancies of up to 100 votes in one electoral district, as well as other malpractices elsewhere.[73]

The Second Glavchev caretaker government, in its official report, stated that they believe that the elections had taken place in a free and fair environment, and cited positive comments made by international electoral observers.[74] In a briefing shortly after the elections, Caretaker Minister of the Interior Atanas Ilkov claimed that no serious differences in the level of vote-buying had been noted by the Ministry and that there was no evidence of the use of state institutions in order to influence the elections outcome.[75]

Results

[edit]

Exit polls showed a GERB victory with 26.4% of the vote, with the PP getting 14.9%, and Revival 12.9%.[76]

The following table outlines the partial results by party. The national electoral threshold at 4% is calculated using the total specified votes cast for parties and independent candidates, and not the total of all valid votes which also include "None of the above" votes. Velichie received 3.9992% of the specified vote, and therefore lost its parliamentary representation by missing just 21 votes to reach the electoral threshold.

As of 22:03 Eastern European Time (UTC+02:00) on 27 October 2024, exit polls showed GERB–SDS was projected to win 65 to 76 seats, with PP–DB securing 37 to 42 seats and Revival claiming 35 to 36 seats. Parallel vote tabulation showed slightly different projections: 63 to 69 for GERB–SDS, 35 to 38 for PP–DB and 35 to 36 for Revival.[77]

PartyVotes%Seats+/–
GERB–SDS642,97325.5269+1
We Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria346,06313.7437–2
Revival325,46612.9235–3
DPS – A New Beginning281,35611.1730New
BSP – United Left184,4037.3220+1
Alliance for Rights and Freedoms182,2537.2319New
There is Such a People165,1606.5618+2
Morality, Unity, Honour111,9654.4412+12
Velichie97,4383.870–13
Blue Bulgaria26,0541.0300
Bulgarian Rise10,3180.4100
Russophiles for Bulgaria8,8600.350New
Direct Democracy [bg]7,9520.3200
People's Voice7,2980.2900
Free Voters6,2930.250New
Party of the Greens [bg]4,8970.1900
Attack3,9650.160New
My Country Bulgaria2,7810.110New
People's Party "Truth and Only the Truth" [bg]2,4630.1000
Pravoto [bg]2,3600.090New
Democrats for Responsibility, Solidarity and Tolerance2,2600.0900
Bulgarian National Union – New Democracy2,2300.0900
Competence, Responsibility and Truth [bg]2,0220.080New
Bulgars1,7370.070New
Bulgarian Union for Direct Democracy [bg]1,6940.0700
Socialist Party "Bulgarian Way" [bg]1,5700.060New
Bulgaria of Labor and Reason [bg]1,4440.060New
Brigade [bg]1,1810.050New
Independent2,0000.080New
None of the above82,6193.28––
Total2,519,075100.002400
Valid votes2,519,07598.00
Invalid/blank votes51,5232.00
Total votes2,570,598100.00
Registered voters/turnout6,601,26238.94
Source: Central Electoral Commission

Maps

[edit]
  • Most voted-for party by province
    Most voted-for party by province
  • GERB-SDS's results by province
    GERB-SDS's results by province
  • PP–DB's results by province
    PP–DB's results by province
  • DPS-NN's results by province
    DPS-NN's results by province
  • Winning party by abroad countries
    Winning party by abroad countries

Aftermath

[edit]

The new elected 51st Parliament replaced the 50th Parliament, when all elected members were sworn in on 11 November.[4] The official start of the process for exploring the first negotiation mandate in order to form a new government, awaited a prior election of the speaker for the 51st National Assembly.[78] After 11 voting rounds, Natalia Kiselova (BSP–OL) was elected as speaker of the National Assembly on 6 December.[5] The unelected party Velichie and all elected parties, except DPS–NN (Peevski), contested the results and conduct of the parliamentary election by submitting complaint cases to the Constitutional Court; and the court subsequently appointed an independent expert panel with a given deadline on 10 January 2025 to investigate all complaints.[9]

Election of the speaker

[edit]
Main article: 51st National Assembly of Bulgaria § National Assembly Speaker and Deputy-Speakers

The election of a speaker for the 51st National Assembly is required before it can begin its work, which include conducting upcoming votes on potential government formation proposals. The Bulgarian President will only start the process of handing out the exploring government forming mandates, once a speaker of the Parliament has been elected.[78]

The election of the speaker of the National Assembly was previously used by GERB as a key part of coalition negotiations. GERB again declared that as the largest party, they should elect the speaker and his party would not partake in coalition talks if this was not to be the case.[79] PP–DB had previously stated they would not vote to elect a GERB speaker.[80]

Initially, the GERB and PP–DB candidates, Raya Nazaryan and Andrey Tsekov respectively, made it into the run-off vote, but neither could get a majority of the votes. The results table of the two run-off votes in round 1 is displayed, which was similar to those of rounds 2 and 3.[81][82][83]

Chairperson of the National Assembly
run-off vote (1st round, 11 Nov)[81]
Raya Nazaryan (GERB–SDS)
Yes
68 / 239
No
121 / 239
Abstentions
50 / 239
Result No ☒N
(120 votes required for majority)
Chairperson of the National Assembly
run-off vote (1st round, 11 Nov)[81]
Andrey Tsekov (PP–DB)
Yes
68 / 239
No
86 / 239
Abstentions
85 / 239
Result No ☒N
(120 votes required for majority)

At the opening of the Assembly, the oldest MP acted as the interim speaker; in this case, it was Silvi Kirilov from ITN. In the third round of voting, ITN suggested Kirilov should be elected as a 'temporary speaker',[84] The vote failed[85] but failed to get to the run-off. However, in rounds 4-9, PP–DB chose to support Kirilov.[86] Kirilov came close in several rounds to get the necessary votes,[87][88][89] and would have been elected in the seventh round if all PP–DB MPs had voted with their group.[90] The results of this run-off are shown below.[91]

Chairperson of the National Assembly
run-off vote (7th round, 28 Nov)[91]
Raya Nazaryan (GERB–SDS)
Yes
69 / 238
No
159 / 238
Abstentions
10 / 238
Result No ☒N
(120 votes required for majority)
Chairperson of the National Assembly
run-off vote (7th round, 28 Nov)[91]
Silvi Kirilov (ITN)
Yes
117 / 238
No
104 / 238
Abstentions
17 / 238
Result No ☒N
(120 votes required for majority)

BSP had attempted to organise a majority around their candidate, excluding GERB and DPS–Peevski[92] In the eighth round, GERB decided to withdraw their support for Nazaryan in favour of BSP's candidate, Nataliya Kiselova.[93] Kiselova made it to the run-off, but failed to reach a majority.[94] Kiselova and Kirilov continued to fail to be elected, with Kiselova almost receiving a majority following the backing of DPS–Peevski in the tenth round.[95] However, finally on 6 December, following BSP agreeing to a cordon sanitaire around DPS–Peevski,[96] Kiselova was elected in the eleventh round with the support of GERB, PP–DB, DPS–Dogan and BSP.[97] One MP from each parliamentary group except DPS–Peevski was also elected as deputy speakers.[98] The result of the final speaker election is below.

Chairperson of the National Assembly
run-off vote (11th round, 6 Dec)[97]
Silvi Kirilov (ITN)
Yes:
• Vaz. (34)
• APS (Dogan) (19)
• ITN (18)
• PP–DB (16)
• MECh (11)
98 / 234
No:
• GERB–SDS (66)
• DPS–NN (Peevski) (29)
• BSP–OL (18)
• PP–DB (6)
119 / 234
Abstentions:
• PP–DB (14)
• GERB–SDS (3)
17 / 234
Result No ☒N
(118 votes required for majority)
Chairperson of the National Assembly
run-off vote (11th round, 6 Dec)[97]
Natalia Kiselova (BSP–OL)
Yes:
• GERB–SDS (68)
• PP–DB (35)
• APS (Dogan) (19)
• BSP–OL (18)
140 / 233
No:
• Vaz. (34)
• DPS–NN (Peevski) (29)
• ITN (18)
• MECh (11)
• GERB–SDS (1)
93 / 233
Abstentions:
0 / 233
Result Yes ✅
(117 votes required for majority)

Government formation

[edit]

Following the results, the parliament remained fragmented, with no clear pre-existing majority being evident.[99] On 29 October, a Bulgarian correspondent from the news network Deutsche Welle suggested the following coalition options were the most likely possibilities to occur, based on the election results and considering the positions stated by the parties during the election campaign:[100]

Coalition Partners Seats Status in the National Assembly Notes
GERB, PP–DB, APS
69+37+19




 Majority (125/240)
GERB, PP–DB, BSP
69+37+20




 Majority (126/240)
GERB, PP–DB, ITN
69+37+18




 Majority (124/240)
GERB, PP–DB, BSP, APS, ITN
69+37+20+19+18



 Qualified majority (163/240) This coalition could exclude one of the latter three parties and still retain a majority.
GERB, BSP, APS, ITN (Final)
69+20+19+18



 Majority (126/240)
GERB
69





 Minority (69/240) A GERB minority government, would require that minimum 62 GERB MPs vote in favour of this among 121 present MPs (or 69 GERB MPs among 121-137 present MPs), in order to satisfy the requirement to achieve a voting majority among the present MPs convened within the minimum quorum of the National Assembly, with the remaining elected MPs forming a silent majority of absentees or abstentions.

A new caretaker government shall be formed by the Bulgarian President, if all three government formation attempts mandated by the constitution fails. The procedure for appointing a caretaker government was recently changed by amendments to the Constitution adopted by the 49th National Assembly, but those changes were challenged for lack of constitutionality by President Radev for a second time on 20 November 2024.[101]

Party positions ahead of the first negotiation mandate

[edit]

GERB's leader, Borisov, claimed victory following the elections and declared that he would be willing to cooperate with all parties except for Revival, if they were willing to support GERB's program.[102] Speaking at GERB's National Forum meant to discuss the election results, Borisov predicted that new elections were the most likely outcome of the next National Assembly.[103] However, Borisov did call for a GERB, PP–DB, BSP, ITN government with himself as the prime minister;[104] the party had ruled out governing with DPS–Peevski, Vaz, DPS–Dogan and MECh.[105]

PP–DB, which finished second, called for a cordon sanitaire around DPS–Peevski, and urged all parties to sign an agreement to this effect, which would also include a commitment to support anti-corruption legislation and judicial reform. They said that signing this was a pre-condition for negotiating with any other party.[106] This cordon was supported by DPS–Dogan, ITN and MECh.[107][108] ITN signed it on the accepted condition PP–DB would agree to fix electoral rolls[109][110][111] GERB rejected the concept of signing agreements prior to negotiations.[112]

DPS–Peevski claimed attempts to exclude them were undemocratic and an attempt to sideline ethnic minority voter interests.[113]

The BSP, in a statement after the election, did not explicitly rule out participation in a government with any of the other parliamentary represented parties, however made clear that any decision about government participation would have to be taken by all parts of the party and broader coalition.[114] BSP also suggested they would not support a government led by Borisov.[115]

DPS–Dogan wanted a Euro-Atlanticist coalition without Peevski, and argued for a GERB–PP–DB government.[116][107]

MECh's leader, Radostin Vasilev, initially proposed a coalition excluding GERB and both wings of the DPS, where MECh would take the interior ministry.[117]

Negotiations ahead of the first mandate

[edit]

On 13 November, GERB met with BSP and ITN in closed negotiations to focus on policy rather than the makeup of a government.[118] BSP also met with representatives of PP–DB, agreeing areas of policy they could jointly work on, though BSP did not sign PP–DB's cordon.[119]

On 14 November, Revival announced that they would also initiate their own negotiations to form government without GERB nor the two wings of DPS.[120] PP–DB for announced that they would not attend any negotiations or govern with Revival.[121][122]

On 22 November, Borisov suggested the leaders of GERB and PP–DB should meet,[123] which was agreed upon on 25 November with Borisov not present. At this stage, GERB declared they wished to choose the Prime Minister, with Borisov himself as the most likely candidate.[124] He would lead a GERB–PP–DB–BSP–ITN government.[104] PP–DB declared they would not support Borisov as Prime Minister,[125] so he withdrew the suggestion on 26 November. Borisov also declared his party would return the first negotiation unfulfilled, likely leading to another election.[126]

Party consultations

[edit]

The official start of the process for exploring the first negotiation mandate was conditioned on the election of a speaker for the National Assembly.[78] Following the speaker's election on 6 December, the President invited all elected parliamentary groups – except DPS–NN – over to consultation meetings between 10–12 December, to discuss initial party positions in regards to the first negotiation mandate.[127] The consultation aimed to facilitate consensus to form a government with the President as a mediator.[128] The President explained he had not invited DPS–NN to consultations as they had ruled themselves out of taking part in forming a government.[129]

During the consultations, GERB leader, Boyko Borisov reiterated that GERB would only negotiate with PP–DB, BSP and ITN and that he should be Prime Minister.[130][131] PP co-leader, Kiril Petkov, made clear that PP would not engage in any negotiations with GERB until they signed the cordon;[132] however, co-chair of the PP–DB parliamentary group and member of Yes, Bulgaria!, Nadezhda Yordanova, indicated that the two Democratic Bulgaria parties were inclined to negotiate with GERB without any preconditions in order to fulfil the first mandate, but this would require GERB to incorporate all of the cordon's policy proposals into the governing agreement.[133]

Vaz stated they would not support or be part of any government formed under the first or second negotiation mandate, and would only work to attempt forming a minority government around their own programme if they were granted the third mandate.[134] BSP stated that they were ready to negotiate with all parties except DPS–NN, but would only support formation of a cabinet under the first mandate if it was a transitional or expert cabinet, and emphasized the future prime minister of such cabinet should not be closely tied to any of the political parties.[134] APS was ready to negotiate for a potential government formation with all parties except DPS-NN and Revival.[135] ITN stated they would be ready to negotiate with all parties except DPS–NN,[136] but would not support Boyko Borisov as Prime Minister.[137] MECh would not support or negotiate with GERB nor DPS–NN.[138]

Government formation following party consultations

[edit]

After the initial consultations, GERB invited ITN, BSP and DB from PP–DB over to bilateral negotiation meetings.[139][140] The President expected to hand over the first negotiation mandate to GERB at the first working day in 2025,[141] which mean the GERB-led initial negotiations should have been concluded before 6 January 2025.[142]

On 16 December, the first round of talks between GERB's negotiation team and representatives of DB took place. The meeting led to a joint declaration, where they came to consensus around building a "stable, pro-European majority", and further rounds of negotiations focusing on policy were scheduled.[143]

During the negotiations, the parliament was asked by the caretaker Prime Minister Dimitar Glavchev to approve the signing of a security cooperation agreement with Ukraine. This was opposed by Vaz, BSP and MECh, but with GERB trying to form a government with BSP, they postponed this decision for a non-caretaker government to take.[144][145]

On 19 December, Borisov suggested that he did not need to be Prime Minister in a GERB-led government, instead he said it would be a collective decision.[146] The following day, GERB and DB began drafting a joint governance agreement reflecting the results of their meetings held so far, with a mind to reach out to BSP and ITN if they could reach consensus on key topics.[147]

Negotiations between GERB and DB broke down after three weeks, reportedly due to disagreement over who should be Prime Minister. GERB was proposing Rosen Zhelyazkov, a key figure in the party, but DB wanted one who was not a leading political figure.[148]

In the attempt to revive the negotiations, President Radev opted to extend the date for when he will hand over the first negotiation mandate to GERB by a few days.[149]

Negotiations with ITN and BSP were resumed by GERB on 8 January.[150][151] On 12 January, the leadership council of DPS–Dogan were presented to a draft government agreement reached between GERB, ITN and BSP (collectively representing 107 MPs), and accepted an official invitation to begin negotiations with these three parties on "support for the formation of a regular government". Negotiations with PP–DB had not been resumed after they were terminated by GERB on 5 January.[152]

The National Council of BSP gathered on 12 January and voted to approve forming a government together with GERB and ITN, where the party had been offered to appoint: Atanas Zafirov as Deputy Prime Minister without portfolio, Borislav Gutsanov as Minister of Labor and Social Policy, Ivan Valentinov Ivanov as Regional Minister, Manol Trifonov Genov as Minister of Environment and Water, and Ivan Maksimov Peshev [bg] as Minister of Sports.[153][154] The speaker of the National Assembly, Natalia Kiselova (BSP), clarified the current draft agreement on governance and the structure and composition of the GERB-ITN-BSP government, had outlined that GERB had the right to appoint the Prime Minister (as long as they did not appoint Borisov), and that each of the parliamentary groups participating in the cabinet negotiations will have the right to appoint a deputy prime minister, meaning the government is expected to have three deputy prime ministers.[155] Most of the wider BSP–OL coalition approved the agreement, but several figures spoke out against joining government with GERB,[156] and Stand Up BG, Movement 21 and Bulgarian Spring subsequently left the coalition.[157]

On 13 January, APS announced that their parliamentary group had received a mandate from their leadership structure to continue negotiations and support regular government. Unofficial sources from APS elaborated they were however not ready to approve the offer that they had received, which saw them support the government and there were no guarantees for a cordon sanitaire surrounding the influence of DPS–NN (Peevski).[158]

First negotiation mandate

[edit]

President Radev announced he would hand over the first negotiation mandate to GERB on 15 January.[159] GERB confirmed they would propose formation of a GERB-ITN-BSP minority government, provided negotiations with APS would end up with an agreement for them to vote in support for such government.[160] On 14 January, APS signed an agreement with the negotiation teams to support formation of the GERB-ITN-BSP minority government led by Prime Minister Rosen Zhelyazkov,[7] and the Central Operational Bureau of APS officially approved the agreement the following day.[8] The National Assembly approved the proposed GERB-ITN-BSP government and inaugurated its 19 ministers (11 from GERB, four from ITN, and four from BSP) in a vote on 16 January.[161]

Investiture
Rosen Zhelyazkov (GERB)
Zhelyazkov Government
Ballot → 16 January 2025
Required majority → absolute majority
among present MPs
(120 of 239)
Yes:
• GERB–SDS (68)
• BSP–OL (20)
• APS (Dogan) (19)
• ITN (18)
125 / 239
No:
• PP–DB (37)
• Vaz. (35)
• DPS–NN (Peevski) (30)
• MECh (12)
114 / 239
Abstentions:
0 / 239
Result Yes ✅
Source: BTA[162]

The Zhelyazkov Government pledged to present its governance and legislative programme within a month after its inauguration, and Prime Minister-designate Zhelyazkov revealed in advance that "its top priority will be requesting a convergence report as part of the procedure to eurozone accession, the 2025 budget, stabilizing the institutions and restoring inter-institutional dialogue".[6]

Contestation of the results and election conduct

[edit]

Velichie, which according to the results remained just below the 4% threshold with exactly 3.9992% of the popular vote,[3] alleged that the elections had been rigged against them and promised to contest the election results.[163] They specifically accused GERB and DPS–Peevski of electoral fraud.[164] The party staged protests in Sofia for multiple days in a row calling for the annulment of the results.[165] There were reports that enough votes to put Velichie into the Assembly were misallocated to other parties in the vote count.[166]

The conduct of the election had allegations of mass vote buying and voter manipulation, leading civil society organisations to call for the annulment of the results.[167] President Rumen Radev noted the large amount of evidence supporting allegations of mass vote buying and called on the Ministry of Interior to reveal which parties were most complicit in the practice.[168] ITN leader Slavi Trifonov endorsed Radev's calls and additionally called for the resignation of the Second Glavchev caretaker government due to their mishandling of the elections.[169] The BSP similarly called on the Prosecutors Office to respond to the allegations of mass vote buying and irregularities.[170] PP–DB said they wanted a comprehensive check of the results, pointing to irregularities like high turnout, high numbers of invalid ballots and discrepancies.[171] Revival have also called for a general recount of the results of the elections,[172] and they claimed to have calculated that between 400,000 and 500,000 votes were bought by all parties except them.[173]

On 7 November, vice-president Iliana Iotova called the new parliament illegitimate.[174] This was criticised by Boyko Borisov, who called on Iotova to apologise or otherwise not go ahead with the first sitting of the parliament if she believed it to be illegitimate.[103] Iotova refused to apologise and reiterated claims serious irregularities in the conduct of the elections.[175]

The following parties have called for a full or partial annulment of the election: the BSP,[176] DPS–Dogan,[106] GERB,[177] ITN,[178] MECh,[179] and Velichie.[163] Multiple parties also announced they would collect signatures to send a partial annulment case to the Constitutional Court, which requires the support of 48 MPs.[178][176] ITN's case was sent with the signatures of 67 deputies of the last parliament, coming from their party, PP–DB, DPS–Dogan, BSP and Velichie.[180] BSP and Vaz also submitted a case with 55 signatures, and argued the president should appoint the cabinet.[181]

On 26 November, the Constitutional Court admitted all five election result complaint cases challenging the legality of the parliamentary election for a combined review. An appointed panel of 18 experts was granted a deadline on 10 January 2025 to investigate all complaints and conduct an independent audit of the election results, including a recount of all votes cast at 1777 polling stations.[9] After completing the hand counting of over 400,000 ballots, the expert panel handed over their investigative report on 14 January 2025, and the judges of the Constitutional Court now have until the beginning of February to issue a ruling.[10]

References

[edit]
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  166. ^ "Discrepancies in Bulgarian Election Results: Did 'Greatness' Lose Votes to Other Parties?". Novinite. Retrieved 1 November 2024.
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  168. ^ "Радев се чуди как е възможно институциите да не виждат купуването на гласове". Mediapool (in Bulgarian). 31 October 2024. Retrieved 31 October 2024.
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  175. ^ "Вицепрезидентът не се извини за думите си за нелегитимния парламент, както поиска Борисов". BTV (in Bulgarian). 9 November 2024. Retrieved 9 November 2024.
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