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Climate change in Azerbaijan

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Greenhouse gas emissions are mostly from oil and gas
Köppen climate classification map for Azerbaijan for 1980–2016
2071–2100 map under the most intense climate change scenario. Mid-range scenarios are currently considered more likely[1][2][3]

Climate change has had serious consequences in Azerbaijan since the start of the 21st century. The climate of Azerbaijan was 1.3 degrees hotter by 2010.[4] The Caspian Sea is shrinking.[5] Azerbaijan will host the 2024 United Nations Climate Change Conference, known as COP29.[6]

Description

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Climate Trace estimates 2022 greenhouse gas emissions will reach 91 million tonnes CO2eq, with over 40% of emissions from fossil fuel production.[7] The petroleum industry in Azerbaijan exports fossil gas. Over 90% of exports from Azerbaijan are petroleum-based.[8] Azerbaijan has over 7 billion barrels of proven crude oil reserves under the Caspian Sea.[9] Energy consumption is estimated at about 16% of GHG, while transportation is estimated at about 10% of GHG.[7]

The climate of Azerbaijan has increased by 1.3 degrees, while extreme weather events are increasing.[4][10] The water level of the Caspian Sea is falling.[5]Forests in the Caucasus are affected.[11] Ecological problems on the coast are being worsened by climate change.[12]

In the post-Soviet economic period, the Azerbaijani economy has become state-controlled and oil-based. Oil is the main contributor to the Azerbaijan economy; decreases in oil prices negatively affect the entire country. [8] Cotton may be the most affected agriculture in Azerbaijan, which is sensitive to climate change.[13][14] In 2023, the Minister of Agriculture reported that the country is engaging in climate-smart agriculture.[15] Fishing is affected.[16] Stranded assets are a long-term risk.[17] Azerbaijani health may suffer from the extreme heat and a longer malaria season.[18]

Mitigation and adaptation

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As of 2023 there is no net zero target.[4] There are intermediate GHG reduction targets.[4] The country's second Nationally Determined Contribution includes a 40% reduction compared to 1990.[19] It may be possible to produce low-carbon hydrogen.[20]

A national adaptation plan is hoped to be published in 2024.[21] COP29 is being hosted in Baku in 2024, probably in November; it will be the third oil-producing country in a row to host the conference.[6][22] Cooperative Mechanisms under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement may be discussed.[23] Some have criticised that the country was chosen to host COP29 and say that environmental activists are repressed.[24] Media freedom in Azerbaijan is restricted, including around discussions of climate change.[6][25]

There is a Youth Climate Envoys programme.[26]

At COP29, negotiators, including those from developing nations, are pushing for $1.3 trillion in climate finance for adaptation and clean energy, while debates continue over the amount, grants vs. loans, and contributor responsibilities, highlighting the need for trust and urgency in reaching an agreement.[27]

Wikimedia Commons has media related to Climate change in Azerbaijan.

See also

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References

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  1. ^ Hausfather, Zeke; Peters, Glen (29 January 2020). "Emissions – the 'business as usual' story is misleading". Nature. 577 (7792): 618–20. Bibcode:2020Natur.577..618H. doi:10.1038/d41586-020-00177-3. PMID 31996825.
  2. ^ Schuur, Edward A.G.; Abbott, Benjamin W.; Commane, Roisin; Ernakovich, Jessica; Euskirchen, Eugenie; Hugelius, Gustaf; Grosse, Guido; Jones, Miriam; Koven, Charlie; Leshyk, Victor; Lawrence, David; Loranty, Michael M.; Mauritz, Marguerite; Olefeldt, David; Natali, Susan; Rodenhizer, Heidi; Salmon, Verity; Schädel, Christina; Strauss, Jens; Treat, Claire; Turetsky, Merritt (2022). "Permafrost and Climate Change: Carbon Cycle Feedbacks From the Warming Arctic". Annual Review of Environment and Resources. 47: 343–371. doi:10.1146/annurev-environ-012220-011847. Medium-range estimates of Arctic carbon emissions could result from moderate climate emission mitigation policies that keep global warming below 3°C (e.g., RCP4.5). This global warming level most closely matches country emissions reduction pledges made for the Paris Climate Agreement...
  3. ^ Phiddian, Ellen (5 April 2022). "Explainer: IPCC Scenarios". Cosmos. Archived from the original on 20 September 2023. Retrieved 30 September 2023. "The IPCC doesn't make projections about which of these scenarios is more likely, but other researchers and modellers can. The Australian Academy of Science, for instance, released a report last year stating that our current emissions trajectory had us headed for a 3°C warmer world, roughly in line with the middle scenario. Climate Action Tracker predicts 2.5 to 2.9°C of warming based on current policies and action, with pledges and government agreements taking this to 2.1°C.
  4. ^ a b c d "Azerbaijan". EU4Climate. Retrieved 2023-12-09.
  5. ^ a b Samant, Rohit; Prange, Matthias (2023-10-07). "Climate-driven 21st century Caspian Sea level decline estimated from CMIP6 projections". Communications Earth & Environment. 4 (1): 357. Bibcode:2023ComEE...4..357S. doi:10.1038/s43247-023-01017-8. ISSN 2662-4435.
  6. ^ a b c Plumer, Brad; Bearak, Max (2023-12-09). "Azerbaijan Is Expected to Host the U.N. Climate Summit in 2024". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2024-01-03.
  7. ^ a b "Country Inventory - Climate TRACE". climatetrace.org. Retrieved 2023-12-09.
  8. ^ a b Vidadili, Nurtaj; Suleymanov, Elchin; Bulut, Cihan; Mahmudlu, Ceyhun (2017). "Transition to renewable energy and sustainable energy development in Azerbaijan". Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews. 80: 1153–1161. doi:10.1016/j.rser.2017.05.168.
  9. ^ Philander, S. George (2012-06-13). Encyclopedia of Global Warming and Climate Change, Second Edition. SAGE Publications. p. 113. ISBN 978-1-5063-2075-5.
  10. ^ "Inputs for OHCHR's Analytical Study on the Impacts of Climate Change on the Enjoyment of the Right to Health (Human Rights Council Resolution 29/15) Contribution by Azerbaijan" (PDF).
  11. ^ Mammadov, Tofig (2021-12-15). "Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on Forestry in Azerbaijan". Natural Products and Biotechnology. 1 (2): 96–105. ISSN 2791-674X.
  12. ^ Mammadov, T. S.; Balapour, Sh. (2015-01-01). "Climate Change Impacts on Azerbaijan Biodiversity in the Caspian Sea". Procedia Environmental Sciences. Agriculture and Climate Change - Adapting Crops to Increased Uncertainty (AGRI 2015). 29: 4. doi:10.1016/j.proenv.2015.07.124. ISSN 1878-0296.
  13. ^ "Climate-Smart Agriculture Shows Promise in Improving Azerbaijan's Cotton Productivity". www.iaea.org. 2023-02-02. Retrieved 2023-12-12.
  14. ^ "Investments and Policy Reforms Towards Low-Carbon Transition and Resilience are in Azerbaijan's Economic Interest, says WBG Report". World Bank. Retrieved 2023-12-12.
  15. ^ "FAO 2023 conference" (PDF).
  16. ^ "Climate change affects amount of fish caught in Caspian Sea". Azernews.Az. 2023-11-03. Retrieved 2023-12-12.
  17. ^ "Climate Change 'Stranded Assets' Are a Long-Term Risk for Some Sovereigns". www.fitchratings.com. Retrieved 2023-12-12.
  18. ^ "risk profile" (PDF).
  19. ^ "Azerbaijan unveils new 2050 climate target in its NDC | Enerdata". www.enerdata.net. 2023-10-12. Retrieved 2023-12-12.
  20. ^ "Green Growth: Mirage or Reality for Azerbaijan's Future?". blogs.worldbank.org. 2022-11-23. Retrieved 2023-12-13.
  21. ^ "World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal". climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org. Retrieved 2023-12-12.
  22. ^ "Event: 2024 UN Climate Change Conference (UNFCCC COP 29) | SDG Knowledge Hub | IISD". Retrieved 2023-12-13.
  23. ^ "COP28 kicks carbon trading down the road as EU blocks deal".
  24. ^ "Controversy as COP29 to be held in Azerbaijan". OC Media. 2023-12-13. Retrieved 2023-12-13.
  25. ^ Lo, Joe (2023-12-09). "Oil-reliant Azerbaijan chosen to host Cop29 climate talks". Climate Home News. Retrieved 2023-12-13.
  26. ^ "Young people in Azerbaijan embark on a climate action journey | UNICEF Europe and Central Asia". www.unicef.org. Retrieved 2023-12-13.
  27. ^ WALLING, MELINA (19 November 2024). "Deadline looms for negotiators seeking a deal for cash to curb global warming". ABC. Retrieved 21 November 2024.
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