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List of election bellwether counties in the United States

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Bellwether counties in the United States are those whose votes back the winning candidate in United States presidential elections.

The strongest bellwether counties are those that do so most frequently. Of the 3,142 counties or county equivalents in the United States[1] only a small handful have voted in alignment with the winner in recent presidential elections.

Significant bellwethers

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Deviation in one election

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The following 30 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in one election since 1980.[2][3]

Overview of bellwether counties in federal elections
Election year of deviation County State County winner Votes National winner Last deviation
1988 Blaine  Montana Michael Dukakis 1,460 1,402 George H. W. Bush 1912
2000 Pinellas  Florida Al Gore 200,657 184,849 George W. Bush 1976
2004 Nicollet  Minnesota John Kerry 8,797 8,689
Sullivan  New Hampshire 11,434 10,142
2012 Albany  Wyoming Mitt Romney 7,866 7,458 Barack Obama
2016 Merced  California Hillary Clinton 37,317 28,725 Donald Trump 1968
San Bernardino 340,833 271,240 1976
San Joaquin 121,124 88,936
Stanislaus 81,647 78,494 1968
2020 Bremer  Iowa Donald Trump 8,294 5,958 Joe Biden 1976
Cortland  New York 10,789 10,369
Essex  Vermont 1,773 1,405
Hidalgo  New Mexico 1,120 823 1968
Juneau  Wisconsin 8,749 4,746 1960
Marquette 5,719 3,239 1976
Otsego  New York 14,382 12,975
Ottawa  Ohio 14,628 9,008 1960
Richland  Wisconsin 4,871 3,995 1976
Sawyer 5,909 4,498 1960
Shiawassee  Michigan 23,149 15,347 1976
Valencia  New Mexico 17,364 14,623 1948
Van Buren  Michigan 21,591 16,803 1976
Vigo  Indiana 23,545 18,213 1952
Warren  Illinois 4,676 3,090 1976
Washington  Maine 10,194 6,761
Westmoreland  Virginia 5,318 4,501 1960
Wood  Ohio 35,757 30,617 1976
2024 Clallam  Washington Kamala Harris TBA TBA Donald Trump 1976

Deviations in two elections

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The following 96 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in two elections since 1980:[2]

Comparison with Random Distribution

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The table above lists counties that have voted for the winning presidential candidate in at least 85% of elections from 1980 through 2020. This yields 125 counties with 11 or more wins during this period. The probability of this occurring by chance in a completely random distribution is quite low and is statistically significant.

However, the relevance of using a random prediction model to evaluate bellwether counties has been questioned by political analysts. Voting behavior in the United States is not random but is shaped by entrenched demographic, cultural, and political factors.[4][5] Most counties vote predictably along partisan lines, with many states and regions consistently favoring one party. This predictability undermines the argument that bellwether counties’ alignment with national outcomes is purely a matter of statistical chance.

Bellwether counties are notable because they deviate from this predictability, reflecting a mix of voter demographics and preferences that align with broader national trends. Studies have shown that bellwether counties often mirror key swing states or represent diverse, politically balanced communities.[6] This alignment suggests that their predictive accuracy arises from real-world dynamics rather than randomness.

Critics of the random model argue that it oversimplifies the complexities of electoral behavior and ignores the systemic factors that make bellwether counties significant. For example, they often serve as microcosms of the national electorate, capturing shifts in voting patterns driven by economic, social, and cultural changes.[7] Reducing their accuracy to mere statistical coincidence disregards these deeper insights.

See also

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Notes

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  1. ^ This county voted with the popular vote each time. The last time it deviated from the popular vote was in 1976, giving it the longest current streak in the nation.[citation needed][as of?]

References

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  1. ^ "How many counties are in the United States?". Reunion Technology Inc. August 3, 2018. Retrieved June 10, 2022.
  2. ^ a b Leip, David. "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections". uselectionatlas.org. Retrieved November 8, 2024.
  3. ^ a b c d e Obeng, Adam (April 26, 2016). "There Are No Bellwether Counties". The Huffington Post. Retrieved November 18, 2020.
  4. ^ Abramowitz, Alan I. (2018). The Great Alignment: Race, Party Transformation, and the Rise of Donald Trump. Yale University Press.
  5. ^ Fiorina, Morris P. (2017). Unstable Majorities: Polarization, Party Sorting, and Political Stalemates. Hoover Institution Press.
  6. ^ Cohn, Nate. (2020). "How the Suburbs Moved America Left." The New York Times. Available at: https://www.nytimes.com.
  7. ^ Abramowitz, Alan I. (2018). The Great Alignment: Race, Party Transformation, and the Rise of Donald Trump. Yale University Press.
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