2025 Prahran state by-election
 | |||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||
Electoral district of Prahran in the Victorian Legislative Assembly | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| |||||||||||||
_2022.svg) Location of the electoral district of Prahran | |||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||
A by-election for the electorate of Prahran in the Victorian Legislative Assembly is scheduled to be held sometime in 2025, following the resignation of incumbent independent MP Sam Hibbins, which was announced on 23 November 2024.[1]
Hibbins had resigned from the Victorian Greens several weeks prior on 1 November 2024, after it emerged that he had been having an extramarital affair with a staff member from his office.[2] Hibbins described the affair as a "human mistake".[3]
Background
[edit]Seat details
[edit]Prahran is an electoral district in the inner-southern suburbs of Melbourne, encompassing the suburbs of South Yarra, Windsor, parts of St Kilda and St Kilda East. The seat has existed since 1889 and has experienced notable political shifts over the years. In 1951, the seat saw a by-election which was won by the Victorian Labor Party. Historically, the electorate has alternated between the Labor and Liberal parties. However, in 2014, the Greens made a significant breakthrough when Sam Hibbins won the seat, despite finishing third in the primary vote, by securing preferences from the two major parties. Before his resignation, Hibbins would go on to retain the seat for the Greens at the time, narrowly in 2018 and increasing the party's margin in 2022.[4]
Demographically, Prahran is one of Victoria's more affluent electorates, with a median weekly personal income of $1,330, significantly higher than the state ($803) and national ($805) averages. More than half of residents hold a bachelor's degree or higher (53.5%), and the median age of residents (35) is slightly younger than both the state and national rates (38).[5]
Electoral history
[edit]| Election | 1992 | 1996 | 1999 | 2002 | 2006 | 2010 | 2014 | 2018 | 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal | 57.80% | 54.60% | 54.00% | 45.60% | 46.40% | 54.80% | 49.63% | 42.55% | 38.00% | |
| Labor | 42.20% | 45.40% | 46.00% | 54.40% | 53.60% | 45.20% | — | — | — | |
| Greens | — | — | — | — | — | — | 50.37% | 57.45% | 62.00% | |
| Government | L/NP | L/NP | ALP | ALP | ALP | L/NP | ALP | ALP | ALP | |
2022 state election results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greens | Sam Hibbins | 14,286 | 36.4 | +8.1 | |
| Liberal | Matthew Lucas | 12,198 | 31.1 | −1.6 | |
| Labor | Wesa Chau | 10,421 | 26.6 | −3.9 | |
| Animal Justice | Alice Le Huray | 1,263 | 3.2 | +0.9 | |
| Family First | Ronald Emilsen | 626 | 1.6 | +1.6 | |
| Independent | Alan Menadue | 449 | 1.1 | +0.8 | |
| Total formal votes | 39,243 | 97.0 | +2.1 | ||
| Informal votes | 1,223 | 3.0 | −2.1 | ||
| Turnout | 40,466 | 82.7 | −1.6 | ||
| Notional two-party-preferred count | |||||
| Labor | Wesa Chau | 23,966 | 61.1 | +2.4 | |
| Liberal | Matthew Lucas | 15,277 | 38.9 | –2.4 | |
| Two-candidate-preferred result | |||||
| Greens | Sam Hibbins | 24,334 | 62.0 | +3.0 | |
| Liberal | Matthew Lucas | 14,909 | 38.0 | −3.0 | |
| Greens hold | Swing | +3.0 | |||
Candidates
[edit]Labor
[edit]The Victorian Labor Party is reportedly considering to field a candidate at the by-election. The party last held Prahran from 2002 to 2010 with Tony Lupton and was narrowly defeated by Hibbins at the 2014 Victorian state election.[9][10]
Liberal
[edit]Victorian Liberal Party leader John Pesutto announced on 25 November 2024 that the party would contest Prahran, having last held the seat with Clem Newton-Brown from 2010 to 2014.
References
[edit]- ^ Andy Yu (23 November 2024). "Prahran MP Sam Hibbins announces he is quitting parliament". ABC News.
- ^ Carmody, Annika Smethurst, Broede (1 November 2024). "'I am angry': Greens leader says co-deputy never welcome back after staffer affair revelation". The Age. Retrieved 20 November 2024.
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link) - ^ "Victorian Greens leader condemns behaviour of MP who resigned over relationship with staffer". ABC News. 1 November 2024. Retrieved 1 November 2024.
- ^ "Prahran by-election, 2025". The Tally Room. 23 November 2024. Retrieved 24 November 2024.
- ^ "2021 Prahran (Southern Metropolitan), Census All persons QuickStats | Australian Bureau of Statistics". www.abs.gov.au. Retrieved 24 November 2024.
- ^ Green, Antony (11 January 2023). "VIC22 – 2-Party Preferred Results and Swings by District". Antony Green's Election Blog. Retrieved 28 January 2023.
- ^ VIC 2021 Final Redistribution, ABC News. [Retrieved 1 January 2023.
- ^ Prahran District results, Victorian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 16 December 2022.
- ^ Kolovos, Benita; correspondent, Benita Kolovos Victorian state (24 November 2024). "Victorian Labor considering push to retake Prahran after surprise resignation of former Greens MP". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 24 November 2024.
{{cite news}}:|last2=has generic name (help) - ^ "Following a shock resignation, a three-way political battle has begun in this affluent Melbourne electorate". ABC News. 24 November 2024. Retrieved 24 November 2024.