2023 Oxford federal by-election
 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Riding of Oxford | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turnout | 39.81% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
.png)
A by-election was held in the federal riding of Oxford in Ontario on June 19, 2023, following the resignation of Conservative MP Dave MacKenzie.[1]
The by-election was held on the same day as three others; Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount, Portage—Lisgar and Winnipeg South Centre.[2]
Background
[edit]Constituency
[edit]The electoral district is a mixed rural and urban constituency which covers Oxford County and a small portion of the County of Brant.[3] The seat is generally considered safe for the Conservative Party,[4] having voted Tory in every election since 1953, except for when the right was divided between 1993 and 2004.
Representation
[edit]The riding of Oxford was vacated on January 28, 2023, following the resignation of Conservative MP Dave MacKenzie, who had held the seat since 2004.
Campaign
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Arpan Khanna, the party's national outreach chair and 2019 candidate in Brampton North[5] defeated Woodstock city-county councillor Deb Tait, MacKenzie's daughter and former ministerial staffer Rick Roth for the Conservative nomination.[6][7] Gerrit Van Dorland, executive assistant to Cypress Hills—Grasslands MP Jeremy Patzer was running for the nomination until he was disqualified by the Conservatives over a dispute about whether he disclosed information to the party.[8][9] In February 2023, MacKenzie accused the party of supporting Khanna, which he argues is a violation of the party nomination rules based on the Conservative's code of conduct, during the race.[10][11]
Running for the Liberals is local realtor, former educator, and past Woodstock mayoral candidate David Hilderley.[12][13][14] Citing concerns with the Conservative nomination process, previous MP Dave MacKenzie endorsed Hilderley in April 2023.[12]
Western University professor Cody Groat defeated Matthew Chambers, the party candidate for the riding in the 2019 and 2021 elections for the NDP nomination.[15][16]
Polling
[edit]| Polling Firm | Last Date of Polling |
Link | CPC | LPC | NDP | PPC | GPC | Others | Undecided | Margin of Error[1] |
Sample Size[2] |
Polling Method[3] |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mainstreet Research | June 14, 2023 | HTML | 36 | 36 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 5 | ±4.5 pp | 473 | IVR |
| 38 | 38 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 7 | — |
Results
[edit]| Canadian federal by-election, June 19, 2023: Oxford Resignation of Dave MacKenzie | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | ||||
| Conservative | Arpan Khanna | 16,688 | 42.92 | -4.13 | ||||
| Liberal | David Hilderley | 14,164 | 36.43 | +15.90 | ||||
| New Democratic | Cody Groat | 4,053 | 10.42 | -7.86 | ||||
| Christian Heritage | John Markus | 1,672 | 4.30 | +3.53 | ||||
| People's | Wendy Martin | 1,278 | 3.29 | -7.36 | ||||
| Green | Cheryle Baker | 854 | 2.20 | -0.52 | ||||
| Independent | John The Engineer Turmel | 171 | 0.44 | |||||
| Total valid votes | 38,880 | 99.38 | ||||||
| Total rejected ballots | 243 | 0.62 | +0.01 | |||||
| Turnout | 39,123 | 39.81 | -25.08 | |||||
| Eligible voters | 98,270 | |||||||
| Conservative hold | Swing | -10.01 | ||||||
| Source: Elections Canada[17] | ||||||||
2021 results
[edit]| 2021 Canadian federal election | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | Expenditures | |||
| Conservative | Dave MacKenzie | 29,146 | 47.05 | -1.09 | ||||
| Liberal | Elizabeth Quinto | 12,720 | 20.53 | +1.24 | ||||
| New Democratic | Matthew Chambers | 11,325 | 18.28 | -1.93 | ||||
| People's | Wendy Martin | 6,595 | 10.65 | +7.73 | ||||
| Green | Bob Reid | 1,683 | 2.72 | -5.12 | ||||
| Christian Heritage | Allen Scovil | 479 | 0.77 | -0.85 | ||||
| Total valid votes | 61,948 | 99.39 | ||||||
| Total rejected ballots | 379 | 0.61 | -0.25 | |||||
| Turnout | 62,327 | 64.89 | -1.04 | |||||
| Eligible voters | 96,055 | |||||||
| Conservative hold | Swing | -1.17 | ||||||
| Source: Elections Canada[18] | ||||||||
References
[edit]- ^ "Dave MacKenzie Announces Retirement Plans". 104.7 Heart FM. Retrieved December 15, 2022.
- ^ "4 federal byelections set for June in Quebec, Ontario and Manitoba | Globalnews.ca". Global News. Retrieved May 31, 2023.
- ^ "Oxford".
- ^ "All eyes on Oxford: Opponents, some Conservatives raise questions about Conservative candidate's commitment to riding".
- ^ "'Hijacked': Riding officials quit after heated Conservative nomination fight". lfpress. Retrieved April 9, 2023.
- ^ Rana, Abbas (January 6, 2023). "Conservative Party's outreach chair Khanna to duke it out with Tory MP MacKenzie's daughter Tait and former Hill staffer Roth in coveted Oxford, Ont., nomination bid". The Hill Times. Retrieved January 9, 2023.
- ^ Rana, Abbas (January 16, 2023). "Tory MP Patzer's Hill staffer, Van Dorland, announces his candidacy for coveted Conservative nomination in Oxford, Ont". The Hill Times. Retrieved January 26, 2023.
- ^ "Conservatives defend ousting Ontario candidate amid anger from anti-abortion group". Global News. Retrieved March 16, 2023.
- ^ "Tory MP Patzer's Hill staffer, Van Dorland, announces his candidacy for coveted Conservative nomination in Oxford, Ont". The Hill Times. Retrieved May 31, 2023.
- ^ "'It pains me to do this': former Tory MP MacKenzie blasts Poilievre and Scheer for favouring Oxford, Ont., nomination candidate". The Hill Times. Retrieved February 26, 2023.
- ^ "Election meddling top of mind in Tory nomination race facing membership fraud complaints". The Hill Times. Retrieved March 24, 2023.
- ^ a b "Former Ontario Tory MP backing Liberal in byelection in riding". The Globe and Mail. April 24, 2023. Retrieved April 25, 2023.
- ^ @liberal_party (May 15, 2023). "David Hilderley is a dedicated community leader, retired educator, and successful real estate agent. As our Liberal candidate for the by-election in Oxford, he's ready to continue working for the people and families across his community as their next Liberal MP" (Tweet). Retrieved May 15, 2023 – via Twitter.
- ^ "Liberal's confirm their nominee, candidates excited for Oxford County federal byelection campaign - London | Globalnews.ca". 980 CFPL. Retrieved May 31, 2023.
- ^ "Amid Conservative divide in stronghold Oxford, NDP eye byelection opening". lfpress. Retrieved April 9, 2023.
- ^ "Professor wins NDP nod for Southwestern Ontario federal byelection". lfpress. Retrieved April 20, 2023.
- ^ "June 19, 2023, by-elections—Official Voting Results". Elections Canada. Retrieved November 13, 2023.
- ^ "forty-fourth general election 2021 — Poll-by-poll results". Elections Canada. Retrieved June 1, 2023.