2012 United States presidential election in New Mexico

2012 United States presidential election in New Mexico
Obama 40-50% 50-60% 60-70% 70-80%	Romney 40-50% 50-60% 60-70% 70-80%
President before election; Barack Obama; Democratic	Elected President ; Barack Obama; Democratic

The 2012 United States presidential election in New Mexico took place on November 6, 2012, as part of the 2012 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. This was the 25th U.S. presidential election in which New Mexico participated. New Mexico voters chose five electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting incumbent Democratic President Barack Obama and his running mate, Vice President Joe Biden, against Republican challenger and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and his running mate, Congressman Paul Ryan.

Prior to the election, 17 news organizations considered this a state Obama would win, or otherwise considered as a safe blue state. President Obama and Vice President Biden carried New Mexico with 52.99% of the vote to Mitt Romney's 42.84%, a victory margin of 10.15%. Libertarian Gary Johnson, a former Republican who served two terms as Governor of New Mexico from 1995 to 2003, garnered 3.55% of the vote, his strongest statewide performance in the nation, and the strongest 3rd party showing in the state since 2000 (although that was easily surpassed by Johnson in 2016, when he received nearly 10% of the vote in New Mexico).

As of the 2020 presidential election, this is the last time where Colfax County, Hidalgo County, and Valencia County voted for the Democratic candidate. (Valencia County picked Donald Trump, Obama's successor, in both his 2016 win and 2020 loss, thus ending its reputation as a pivotal bellwether in presidential elections.) Since its statehood in 1912, no incumbent president of either party has ever won another term in office without carrying New Mexico. This is the last time that the presidential candidate who carried New Mexico won a majority of New Mexico's counties.

Caucuses and primaries

Democratic caucuses

The Democratic caucus in New Mexico was uncontested as no one challenged incumbent President Barack Obama for the nomination. As a result, all of the state's 50 delegates were allocated to Obama.

Republican primary

The 2012 New Mexico Republican presidential primary was proclaimed under state law on January 30, 2012^[1] to take place on June 5, 2012.^[1]^[2] Under New Mexico law it is a closed primary, with only registered members of the New Mexico Republican Party being eligible to vote in the Republican primary.^[3] 20 delegates were chosen, for a total of 23 delegates to go to the national convention.

Federal offices

President of the United States: This is a "proportional primary". The twenty delegates to the National Republican Convention are bound proportionally, according to the percentage of votes received, to presidential contenders who receive 15% or more of the primary vote statewide.^[4]
United States Senate: A single candidate to run for the seat formerly held by Jeff Bingaman.
United States House of Representatives: One candidate from each of the three congressional districts.

Statewide offices

Court of Appeals: One candidate to run for the unexpired term^[1] of Judge Robert E. Robles, currently held by appointee Judge J. Miles Hanisee.^[5]
Public Regulation Commission: One candidate for each of District 1 and District 3 for four year terms.^[1]

Results

New Mexico Republican primary, 2012^[6]
Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Delegates
Mitt Romney	65,935	73.2%	20
Rick Santorum	9,517	10.56%	0
Ron Paul	9,363	10.39%	0
Newt Gingrich	5,298	5.88%	0
Unpledged delegates:			3
Total:	90,113	100.0%	23

Key:

Withdrew prior to contest

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
Huffington Post^[7]	Lean D	November 6, 2012
CNN^[8]	Lean D	November 6, 2012
New York Times^[9]	Lean D	November 6, 2012
Washington Post^[10]	Tossup	November 6, 2012
RealClearPolitics^[11]	Lean D	November 6, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[12]	Likely D	November 5, 2012
FiveThirtyEight^[13]	Solid D	November 6, 2012

Candidate ballot access

Barack Obama / Joe Biden, Democratic
Mitt Romney / Paul Ryan, Republican
Gary Johnson / James P. Gray, Libertarian
Jill Stein / Cheri Honkala, Green
Virgil Goode / Jim Clymer, Constitution
Rocky Anderson / Luis J. Rodriguez, Justice

Results

2012 United States presidential election in New Mexico^[14]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Barack Obama (incumbent) Joe Biden (incumbent)	415,335	52.99%	−3.92
	Republican	Mitt Romney Paul Ryan	335,788	42.84%	+1.06
	Libertarian	Gary Johnson Jim Gray	27,788	3.55%	+3.26
	Green	Jill Stein Cheri Honkala	2,691	0.34%	+0.15
	Justice	Rocky Anderson Luis J. Rodriguez	1,177	0.15%	N/A
	Constitution	Virgil Goode Jim Clymer	983	0.13%	−0.06
Total votes			783,756	100.00%
	Democratic win

By county

County	Barack Obama Democratic		Mitt Romney Republican		Various candidates Other parties		Margin		Total votes cast
County	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%	Total votes cast
Bernalillo	150,739	55.63%	106,408	39.27%	13,822	5.10%	44,331	16.36%	270,969
Catron	560	26.38%	1,494	70.37%	69	3.25%	-934	-43.99%	2,123
Chaves	6,604	32.54%	13,088	64.50%	600	2.96%	-6,484	-31.96%	20,292
Cibola	4,961	60.18%	2,998	36.37%	284	3.45%	1,963	23.81%	8,243
Colfax	2,828	49.06%	2,699	46.83%	237	4.11%	129	2.23%	5,764
Curry	4,022	29.52%	9,251	67.90%	352	2.58%	-5,229	-38.38%	13,625
De Baca	287	31.82%	586	64.97%	29	3.21%	-299	-33.15%	902
Dona Ana	37,139	55.91%	27,322	41.13%	1,962	2.96%	9,817	14.78%	66,423
Eddy	6,142	31.88%	12,583	65.30%	544	2.82%	-6,441	-33.42%	19,269
Grant	7,090	54.95%	5,358	41.53%	454	3.52%	1,732	13.42%	12,902
Guadalupe	1,488	69.70%	557	26.09%	90	4.21%	931	43.61%	2,135
Harding	260	43.26%	327	54.41%	14	2.33%	-67	-11.15%	601
Hidalgo	995	51.42%	899	46.46%	41	2.12%	96	4.96%	1,935
Lea	4,080	23.98%	12,548	73.75%	387	2.27%	-8,468	-49.77%	17,015
Lincoln	2,942	31.83%	5,961	64.50%	339	3.67%	-3,019	-32.67%	9,242
Los Alamos	5,191	48.72%	4,796	45.02%	667	6.26%	395	3.70%	10,654
Luna	3,583	47.77%	3,670	48.93%	247	3.30%	-87	-1.16%	7,500
McKinley	15,841	72.24%	5,546	25.29%	542	2.47%	10,295	46.95%	21,929
Mora	1,955	74.88%	595	22.79%	61	2.33%	1,360	52.09%	2,611
Otero	6,829	34.12%	12,451	62.22%	732	3.66%	-5,622	-28.10%	20,012
Quay	1,383	37.31%	2,202	59.40%	122	3.29%	-819	-22.09%	3,707
Rio Arriba	11,465	74.72%	3,397	22.14%	481	3.14%	8,068	52.58%	15,343
Roosevelt	1,727	28.93%	4,043	67.73%	199	3.34%	-2,316	-38.80%	5,969
San Juan	15,855	34.29%	28,849	62.39%	1,533	3.32%	-12,994	-28.10%	46,237
San Miguel	8,850	76.90%	2,303	20.01%	356	3.09%	6,547	56.89%	11,509
Sandoval	27,236	50.36%	24,387	45.10%	2,455	4.54%	2,849	5.26%	54,078
Santa Fe	50,872	73.47%	15,500	22.38%	2,873	4.15%	35,372	51.09%	69,245
Sierra	1,964	38.49%	2,928	57.39%	210	4.12%	-964	-18.90%	5,102
Socorro	4,058	56.42%	2,722	37.84%	413	5.74%	1,336	18.58%	7,193
Taos	11,978	78.09%	2,730	17.80%	631	4.11%	9,248	60.29%	15,339
Torrance	2,428	37.93%	3,529	55.12%	445	6.95%	-1,101	-17.19%	6,402
Union	472	26.83%	1,236	70.27%	51	2.90%	-764	-43.44%	1,759
Valencia	13,511	48.73%	12,825	46.25%	1,392	5.02%	686	2.48%	27,728
Total	415,335	52.99%	335,788	42.84%	32,634	4.16%	79,547	10.15%	783,757

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Luna (largest city: Deming)

By congressional district

Obama won 2 of 3 congressional districts.^[15]

District	Obama	Romney	Representative
1st	55.25%	39.6%	Michelle Lujan Grisham
2nd	44.9%	51.72%	Steve Pearce
3rd	57.52%	38.67%	Ben Ray Luján

Notes

^ ^a ^b ^c ^d Martinez, Susana (30 January 2012) "Primary Election Proclamation", archived at Archived 2012-04-13 at the Wayback Machine by Webcite on 6 February 2012
^ "Primary and Caucus Printable Calendar". CNN. Retrieved January 11, 2012.
^ "In a primary election, a voter shall not be permitted to vote for a candidate of a party different from the party designation shown on the voter's certificate of registration." New Mexico Statutes Annotated §1-12-7.2(D) (2011), archived by Webcite at Archived 2016-03-04 at the Wayback Machine on 6 February 2012
^ "each candidate and the uncommitted category shall be entitled to a share of the total vote allotted to the delegation that is equal to the proportion that the vote he received in the presidential primary bears to the total combined vote received by all qualified candidates; provided that no candidate shall be excluded who has received at least fifteen percent of the total vote cast for candidates for president of that party, and no candidate shall be excluded in violation of any political party rule" New Mexico Statutes Annotated §1-15A-9(C)(1) (2011), archived by Webcite at Archived 2016-03-03 at the Wayback Machine on 6 February 2012
^ Barbati, Duane (1 February 2012) "Appeals judge wants to retain seat" Alamogordo Daily News, archive at Archived 2012-02-04 at the Wayback Machine by Webcite on 6 February 2012
^ Secretary of State official election results Archived July 10, 2012, at the Wayback Machine. June 26, 2012. Retrieved June 27, 2012.
^ "Huffington Post Election Dashboard". HuffPost. Archived from the original on August 13, 2013.
^ "America's Choice 2012 Election Center: CNN Electoral Map". CNN. Archived from the original on January 19, 2013.
^ "Election 2012 - The Electoral Map: Building a Path to Victory". The New York Times. Archived from the original on July 8, 2012.
^ "2012 Presidential Election Results". The Washington Post. Archived from the original on July 26, 2012.
^ "RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Battle for White House". Archived from the original on June 8, 2011.
^ "PROJECTION: OBAMA WILL LIKELY WIN SECOND TERM".
^ "Nate Silver's political calculations predict 2012 election outcome".
^ "New Mexico Secretary of State". Retrieved November 11, 2012.
^ "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts". Daily Kos. Retrieved August 11, 2020.

External links

The Green Papers: for New Mexico
The Green Papers: Major state elections in chronological order

[Proclamation-1] Martinez, Susana (30 January 2012) "Primary Election Proclamation", archived at Archived 2012-04-13 at the Wayback Machine by Webcite on 6 February 2012

[2] "Primary and Caucus Printable Calendar". CNN. Retrieved January 11, 2012.

[3] "In a primary election, a voter shall not be permitted to vote for a candidate of a party different from the party designation shown on the voter's certificate of registration." New Mexico Statutes Annotated §1-12-7.2(D) (2011), archived by Webcite at Archived 2016-03-04 at the Wayback Machine on 6 February 2012

[4] "each candidate and the uncommitted category shall be entitled to a share of the total vote allotted to the delegation that is equal to the proportion that the vote he received in the presidential primary bears to the total combined vote received by all qualified candidates; provided that no candidate shall be excluded who has received at least fifteen percent of the total vote cast for candidates for president of that party, and no candidate shall be excluded in violation of any political party rule" New Mexico Statutes Annotated §1-15A-9(C)(1) (2011), archived by Webcite at Archived 2016-03-03 at the Wayback Machine on 6 February 2012

[5] Barbati, Duane (1 February 2012) "Appeals judge wants to retain seat" Alamogordo Daily News, archive at Archived 2012-02-04 at the Wayback Machine by Webcite on 6 February 2012

[6] Secretary of State official election results Archived July 10, 2012, at the Wayback Machine. June 26, 2012. Retrieved June 27, 2012.

[7] "Huffington Post Election Dashboard". HuffPost. Archived from the original on August 13, 2013.

[8] "America's Choice 2012 Election Center: CNN Electoral Map". CNN. Archived from the original on January 19, 2013.

[9] "Election 2012 - The Electoral Map: Building a Path to Victory". The New York Times. Archived from the original on July 8, 2012.

[10] "2012 Presidential Election Results". The Washington Post. Archived from the original on July 26, 2012.

[11] "RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Battle for White House". Archived from the original on June 8, 2011.

[12] "PROJECTION: OBAMA WILL LIKELY WIN SECOND TERM".

[13] "Nate Silver's political calculations predict 2012 election outcome".

[14] "New Mexico Secretary of State". Retrieved November 11, 2012.

[15] "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts". Daily Kos. Retrieved August 11, 2020.

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Caucuses and primaries

Democratic caucuses

Republican primary

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Statewide offices

Results

General election

Predictions

Candidate ballot access

Results

By county

By congressional district

See also

Notes

External links