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2018 Arizona's 8th congressional district special election

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2018 Arizona's 8th congressional district special election
← 2016 April 24, 2018 November 2018 →
Arizona's 8th congressional district
Turnout40.43%
 
Nominee Debbie Lesko Hiral Tipirneni
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 96,012 87,331
Percentage 52.37% 47.63%
Precinct results
U.S. Representative before election

Trent Franks
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Debbie Lesko
Republican

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A special election for Arizona's 8th congressional district was held in 2018 subsequent to the resignation of Republican U.S. Representative Trent Franks. Governor Doug Ducey called a special primary election for Tuesday, February 27, 2018, and a special general election for the balance of Franks' eighth term for Tuesday, April 24, 2018.[1][2]

Republican nominee and former Arizona Senate president pro tem Debbie Lesko won a closer-than-expected race against Democratic challenger Hiral Tipirneni.

Background

[edit]

Incumbent representative Trent Franks announced on December 7, 2017, that he would resign effective January 31, 2018, after admitting allegations regarding the issue of surrogacy. However, after his wife was hospitalized, Franks resigned effective December 8, 2017.[3]

Candidates must file nomination forms and petitions within 30 days of the governor's proclamation. Candidates in special congressional elections in Arizona must collect a number of valid signatures equal to at least one-fourth of 1% of the number of qualified signers in the district. For the 2018 special election, a Democratic candidate requires 665 signatures, a Green candidate requires 392 signatures, a Libertarian candidate requires 401 signatures, a Republican candidate requires 860 signatures, and an independent candidate requires 4,680 signatures.[4]

It was initially thought that Arizona's resign-to-run law would have required sitting members of the Arizona Legislature to resign their seats in order to run in the special election. Arizona's resign-to-run law does not require someone to resign if they file to run when they are in the final year of their term. However, the deadline to submit nominating petitions was January 10 and the end of the current term for members of the Arizona Legislature was January 14, 2019.[5] However, legal advice from the legislature's nonpartisan counsel stated that incumbent state legislators would not be required to resign in order to run in the special election.[6]

Republican primary

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Two of the major candidates in the Republican primary drew controversy late in the campaign. Former state senator Steve Montenegro faced calls to withdraw, including by former governor Jan Brewer, after news articles revealing sexually suggestive text messages between Montenegro and a legislative staffer surfaced.[7] Additionally, complaints were filed against former state senator Debbie Lesko over her campaign finance records.[8]

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

Withdrew

[edit]
  • Kevin Cavanaugh, former deputy sheriff[12]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Steve Montenegro

Individuals

Debates

[edit]
  • Dan Nowicki (January 25, 2018). "GOP Congress hopefuls try to outdo each other on border security, loyalty to Trump". The Arizona Republic. Includes video of debate, January 24, 2018.

Polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Debbie
Lesko 		Phil
Lovas 		Richard
Mack 		Steve
Montenegro 		Bob
Stump 		Clair
Van
Steenwyck 		Undecided
ABC 15/OH Predictive Insights (R)[25] January 29, 2018 400 ± 4.9% 21% 12% 1% 21% 10% 5% 24%
Remington Research (R-Jobs, Freedom, and Security PAC)[26] January 20–21, 2018 787 ± 3.5% 22% – – 24% 11% – –
Hypothetical polling

with Clint Hickman and Kimberly Yee

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Travis
Angry 		Clint
Hickman 		Debbie
Lesko 		Phil
Lovas 		Richard
Mack 		Steve
Montenegro 		Tony
Rivero 		Bob
Stump 		Christopher
Sylvester 		Kimberly
Yee 		Undecided
ABC 15/OH Predictive Insights (R)[27] December 11, 2017 400 ± 4.9% 1% 15% 16% 2% – 1% 1% 18% 2% 7% 37%
Data Orbital (R)[28] December 9–11, 2017 400 ± 4.9% – 9% 15% 2% 3% 4% – 10% – 7% 51%

Results

[edit]
Republican special primary results, Arizona 2018[29]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Debbie Lesko 27,047 35.37%
Republican Phil Lovas 18,652 24.39%
Republican Steve Montenegro 18,106 23.68%
Republican Bob Stump 4,032 5.27%
Republican Clair Van Steenwyk 1,787 2.34%
Republican Christopher Sylvester 1,490 1.95%
Republican David Lien 1,341 1.75%
Republican Richard Mack 1,191 1.56%
Republican Mark Yates 871 1.14%
Republican Chad Allen 824 1.08%
Republican Brenden Dilley 823 1.08%
Republican Stephen Dolgos 377 0.49%
Write-in 8 0.01%
Total votes 76,459 100%

Democratic primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Results

[edit]
Democratic special primary results, Arizona 2018[29]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Hiral Tipirneni 23,175 60.22%
Democratic Brianna Westbrook 15,288 39.72%
Write-in 22 0.06%
Total votes 38,485 100%

Green primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]
  • Richard Grayson (write-in), candidate in Green Party presidential primary in Arizona in 2012[9]
  • Gary Swing (write-in), Green Party candidate for U.S. Senator in Arizona in 2016[9]

Each candidate received 13 write-in votes in the primary. Neither was placed on the special election ballot.[33]

Libertarian primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]
  • Kelly Noble (write-in)[34]

The candidate received 22 write-in votes in the primary and was not placed on the special election ballot.[33]

General election

[edit]
Debbie Lesko at a campaign event in Peoria, Arizona
Hiral Tipirneni at a campaign event in Sun City, Arizona

Republican candidate Debbie Lesko received over $1 million in funding from Republican groups outside the state.[35]

Candidates

[edit]

Debates

[edit]
Host
network 		Date Link(s) Participants
Hiral
Tipirneni (D) 		Debbie
Lesko (R)
KAET March 26, 2018 [38] Invited Invited

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[39] Likely R March 2, 2018
Inside Elections/Rothenberg Political Report[40] Likely R February 28, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[41] Likely R March 14, 2018

Endorsements

[edit]
Debbie Lesko

Federal politicians

Local and state politicians

Organizations

Hiral Tipirneni

Federal politicians

Local and state politicians

Labor unions

Organizations

Polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Debbie
Lesko (R) 		Hiral
Tipirneni (D) 		Other Undecided
Emerson College[74] April 19–22, 2018 400 ± 5.2% 49% 43% – 8%
Lake Research Partners (D-Tipirneni)[75] April 14–16, 2018 408 ± 4.9% 44% 44% – 11%
Emerson College[76] April 12–15, 2018 400 ± 5.2% 45% 46% 4% 5%
OH Predictive Insights[77] April 11, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 53% 43% – 4%
Lake Research Partners (D-Tipirneni)[78] March 3–6, 2018 400 – 48% 34% – 18%

Results

[edit]
Arizona's 8th congressional district special election, 2018[79]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Debbie Lesko 96,012 52.37% −16.18%
Democratic Hiral Tipirneni 87,331 47.63% N/A
Total votes '183,343' '100%' N/A
Republican hold

See also

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References

[edit]
  1. ^ "Congressman Franks resigns". Arizona Capitol Times. Retrieved December 12, 2017.
  2. ^ "Gov. Ducey sets dates for special election to fill Rep. Trent Franks' seat". KPNX. Archived from the original on December 13, 2017. Retrieved December 12, 2017.
  3. ^ "Rep. Trent Franks to Resign Immediately After Wife Is Hospitalized". Time. Archived from the original on December 8, 2017. Retrieved December 12, 2017.
  4. ^ "2018 Congressional District 8 Special Primary and Special General Election Information" (PDF). Arizona Secretary of State. Archived from the original (PDF) on December 12, 2017. Retrieved December 12, 2017.
  5. ^ "Franks' immediate resignation puts monkey wrench into special election". Arizona Capitol Times. Retrieved December 12, 2017.
  6. ^ Bob Christie (December 14, 2017). "Legislature's lawyers says "resign-to-run" not triggered". The Associated Press.
  7. ^ Yvonne Wingett Sanchez; Ronald J. Hansen (February 21, 2018). "Steve Montenegro faces calls to quit congressional race; backers largely mum". The Arizona Republic.
  8. ^ "Arizona Special Primary Election Results: Eighth House District". The New York Times.
  9. ^ a b c d e f g h "Updated: Here's Everyone Who's Running To Replace Trent Franks". Phoenix New Times. December 12, 2017. Retrieved December 13, 2017.
  10. ^ "Brenden Dilley for Congress – Vote February 27, 2018 in Arizona District 8's Special Election". Brenden Dilley for Congress. Retrieved December 24, 2017.
  11. ^ "The Amazing YourVoice America Hosts! – YourVoice America". Your Voice America. Archived from the original on April 1, 2022. Retrieved December 24, 2017.
  12. ^ a b c "Arizona Election Information". apps.arizona.vote.
  13. ^ Ronald J. Hansen (December 20, 2017). "Debbie Lesko is officially running for Congress for Trent Franks' seat". The Arizona Republic.
  14. ^ "Tweets with replies by Phil Lovas (@PhilLovas)". Archived from the original on June 6, 2020 – via Twitter.
  15. ^ "12-18-17 Briefs". archives.mcrcbriefs.org. Archived from the original on December 22, 2017. Retrieved December 18, 2017.
  16. ^ a b "Arizona names who could enter the race for Franks' US House seat". KTAR. December 7, 2017. Retrieved December 7, 2017.
  17. ^ "First candidate certified in race to replace Trent Franks | Local | azdailysun.com". Archived from the original on January 4, 2018.
  18. ^ Seipel, Brooke (December 7, 2017). "Rep. Franks resigning after discussing surrogacy with female staff". The Hill. Archived from the original on December 8, 2017.
  19. ^ Ronald J. Hansen; Yvonne Wingett Sanchez; Eliza Collins; Dan Nowicki. "Trent Franks stepping down from Congress amid complaints from 2 former female staffers". The Arizona Republic. Archived from the original on February 26, 2018. Retrieved December 8, 2017.
  20. ^ "Trent Franks, Joe Arpaio endorse Arizona senator for Franks' former seat". KTAR. December 11, 2017. Archived from the original on December 12, 2017. Retrieved December 12, 2017.
  21. ^ Wallace, Jeremy (December 28, 2017). "Ted Cruz weighing in on races in Arizona and Montana". Houston Chronicle. Archived from the original on December 29, 2017.
  22. ^ Roberts, Laurie (December 11, 2017). "Roberts: Is a Trent Franks endorsement a good thing for Steve Montenegro?". The Arizona Republic.
  23. ^ @SteveMontenegro (January 17, 2018). "BREAKING: @SteveKingIA endorses Montenegro! "The establishment is never going to support candidates like Steve Montenegro because he will solve problems and put America first. He's exactly the warrior we need to make America great again!" #AZ08" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  24. ^ "Former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum endorses Steve Montenegro for Congress" – via Facebook. [dead link‍]
  25. ^ ABC 15/OH Predictive Insights (R)
  26. ^ Remington Research (R-Jobs, Freedom, and Security PAC)
  27. ^ ABC 15/OH Predictive Insights (R)
  28. ^ Data Orbital (R) Archived July 3, 2018, at the Wayback Machine
  29. ^ a b "2018 Arizona primary special election results" (PDF). Retrieved June 9, 2019.
  30. ^ "Glendale doctor enters race for Arizona's 8th Congressional District". KTAR. July 19, 2017.
  31. ^ Tipirneni, Kishore. "Dr. Hiral Tipirneni for Congress". Hiral Tipirneni. Archived from the original on November 30, 2019. Retrieved December 27, 2020.
  32. ^ "Campaign finance data". Federal Election Commission.
  33. ^ a b "Write-in Canvass Summary Special Primary Election 2018 Congressional District 8" (PDF). Maricopa County Recorder's Information Systems Center. Retrieved April 14, 2018.
  34. ^ "Special election for Arizona's Congressional District 8". KTVK. February 28, 2018. Archived from the original on April 14, 2018. Retrieved April 14, 2018.
  35. ^ Martin, Jonathan (April 24, 2018). "Debbie Lesko Wins Arizona Special Election for Congress, Rallying G.O.P." The New York Times. Retrieved April 25, 2018.
  36. ^ Bowman, Bridget (February 28, 2018). "Lesko Wins GOP Primary in Arizona Race to Replace Rep. Trent Franks". Roll Call. Retrieved March 1, 2018.
  37. ^ "Hiral Tipirneni defeats Brianna Westbrook in Democratic Congressional District 8 primary". The Arizona Republic. Retrieved March 1, 2018.
  38. ^ "Lesko vs Tipirneni: Eighth Congressional District Special Election Debate". Arizona PBS. March 26, 2018.
  39. ^ Dave Wasserman. "AZ-08: Republicans Retain Advantage in Special Election". Retrieved January 2, 2022.
  40. ^ "Rating Change: Arizona 8 Special Gets More Vulnerable | News & Analysis | Inside Elections". Inside Elections. Retrieved March 1, 2018.
  41. ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2018 House". Center for Politics. Retrieved March 1, 2018.
  42. ^ Brahm Resnik [@brahmresnik] (February 6, 2018). "BREAKING Congressman @andybiggs4az endorses @DebbieLesko in #AZ08 GOP primary. Biggs a leading conservative voice in #MariCo" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  43. ^ a b c "Endorsements". Debbie Lesko.
  44. ^ Debbie Lesko [@DebbieLesko] (January 19, 2018). "Big news! I have been endorsed by @Jim_Jordan for my campaign for #Congress in #AZ 08. For those of you who don't know he was a co-founder of the House Freedom Caucus @freedomcaucus" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  45. ^ Weigel, David; DeBonis, Mike (April 18, 2018). "GOP enlists Trump, leadership to stave off Democratic challenge in Arizona". Washington Post.
  46. ^ Martha McSally [@MarthaMcSally] (April 21, 2018). "We've got to make sure this district knows, this state knows and this country knows that #AZ08 is RED and Arizona is RED. @DebbieLesko @AZGOP" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  47. ^ Debbie Lesko [@DebbieLesko] (January 22, 2018). "So honored to have the support of @RepMarkMeadows for my run for Congress in #AZ 08!" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  48. ^ "Arizona, please get out today and vote @DebbieLesko for Congress in #AZ08. Strong on Border, Immigration and Crime. Great on the Military. Time is ticking down – get out and VOTE today. We need Debbie in Congress!". Twitter.
  49. ^ Debbie Lesko [@DebbieLesko] (January 30, 2018). "I am so excited to announce that @GovBrewer has endorsed my campaign! Thank you Governor!! #AZ08 #MAGA" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  50. ^ Maricopa County GOP [@MaricopaGOP] (April 14, 2018). "Come out and support @DebbieLesko for Congress this Saturday... @GeneralBrnovich is stopping by! Knock some doors, make some calls...keep CD8 Red! Prizes and lunch! #Teamwork #EveryVoteCounts #AZ08 #KeepitRed @AZGOP #LeadRight" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  51. ^ "Endorsed Candidates". KTAR News.
  52. ^ "Endorsed Candidates". Maggie's List.
  53. ^ "National Pro-life Group SBA List Endorses Debbie Lesko in AZ-8". January 12, 2018.
  54. ^ "Debbie Lesko". Women For Winning.
  55. ^ a b c d e "Dr. Hiral Tipirneni Endorsed by Members of Congress" (PDF). Hiral Tipirneni. Archived from the original (PDF) on January 18, 2018. Retrieved December 19, 2017.
  56. ^ a b "Nationwide endorsements for Dr Hiral Tipirneni". India Post. April 5, 2018.
  57. ^ a b c d e f g Kimbrough, Jason; Tipirneni, Hiral; Sinema, Kyrsten (April 5, 2018). "Dr. Hiral Tipirneni Earns Endorsements of Arizona Congressional Leadership" (PDF). Dr. Hiral Tipirneni for Congress. Archived from the original (PDF) on April 14, 2018. Retrieved April 14, 2018.
  58. ^ Tim Kaine. "Special election TOMORROW in #AZ08 - Democrat @hiral4congress is neck-and-neck in a district Trump won by 20+! She's a mom, a physician, and a longtime health care advocate". Twitter.
  59. ^ "AZ-08: Rep. Conor Lamb (D. PA) Helps Dr. Hiral Tipirneni (D) Pull Off A Special Election Victory". Daily Kos. April 21, 2018.
  60. ^ "AZ-08: Kyrsten Sinema (D) Helps Hiral Tipirneni (D) Pull Off Another Special Election Upset Victory". Daily Kos. April 5, 2018.
  61. ^ "Dr. Hiral Tipirneni Endorsed by Maricopa County Supervisor Steve Gallardo" (PDF). December 18, 2017. Archived from the original (PDF) on January 18, 2018. Retrieved March 1, 2018.
  62. ^ "Dr. Hiral Tipirneni Earns Endorsement of United Food and Commercial Workers Union Local 99" (PDF). February 2, 2018. Archived from the original (PDF) on March 1, 2018. Retrieved March 1, 2018.
  63. ^ "Endorsed Candidates". AAPI Victory Fund. Archived from the original on March 1, 2018. Retrieved March 1, 2018.
  64. ^ Gabby Giffords (February 21, 2018). "Giffords Endorses Dr. Hiral Tipirneni to Replace Trent Franks in Special Election for Arizona's 8th Congressional District". GiffordsPAC. Archived from the original on March 1, 2018. Retrieved March 1, 2018.
  65. ^ "C4PC Endorses Hiral Tipirneni, MD, for Congress in AZ-8". Clinicians for Progressive Care. January 2, 2018.
  66. ^ "ECU Endorses Dr. Hiral Tipirneni in AZ-08 Special Election – End Citizens United". End Citizens United. March 21, 2018.
  67. ^ Schriock, Stephanie (April 4, 2018). "EMILY's List Endorses Hiral Tipirneni in Arizona's 8th District". Emily' s List.
  68. ^ Giffords, Gabby (February 21, 2018). "Giffords Endorses Dr. Hiral Tipirneni to Replace Trent Franks in Special Election for Arizona's 8th Congressional District – Giffords". Giffords. Archived from the original on March 1, 2018. Retrieved March 1, 2018.
  69. ^ Urbina, Maria; Phelps, Emily (April 3, 2018). "Indivisible Project Endorses First Five Candidates in Midterm Elections". Indivisible. Archived from the original on April 9, 2018. Retrieved April 9, 2018.
  70. ^ Sittenfeld, Tiernan (April 20, 2018). "LCV Action Fund Endorses Hiral Tipirneni for Congress – League of Conservation Voters". League of Conservation Voters.
  71. ^ Sheyman, Ilya (April 1, 2018). "MoveOn Members in Arizona Vote Overwhelmingly to Endorse Hiral Tipirneni (AZ-08) for Congress". MoveOn.
  72. ^ Hogue, Ilyse (April 16, 2018). "NARAL Pro-Choice America Endorses Hiral Tipirneni on Her Bid For Congress – NARAL Pro-Choice America". NARAL Pro-Choice America.
  73. ^ "Arizona 2018 Primary Election Candidates & Stonewall Democrats Endorsements". Stonewall Dems AZ. Archived from the original on April 9, 2018. Retrieved April 9, 2018.
  74. ^ Emerson College [permanent dead link‍]
  75. ^ Lake Research Partners (D-Tipirneni)
  76. ^ Emerson College Archived November 9, 2018, at the Wayback Machine
  77. ^ OH Predictive Insights
  78. ^ Lake Research Partners (D-Tipirneni)
  79. ^ "Official Canvas of Special General Election" (PDF). Arizona Secretary of State. Retrieved December 25, 2018.
[edit]

Official campaign websites

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