2022 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania
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Elections in Pennsylvania |
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Government |
The 2022 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania will be held on November 8, 2022, concurrently with elections for all other Class 3 U.S. Senators, elections for the U.S. House of Representatives, as well as a gubernatorial election, to select a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania.
Two-term Republican incumbent Pat Toomey announced on October 5, 2020, that he would not run for re-election to a third term.[1][2] Due to this development, the election is expected to be competitive and important to determine whether Democrats or Republicans will control the Senate in 2023. This is attributed to the seat being an open Republican-held one located in a state that President Joe Biden won in the 2020 presidential election.[3] This seat is seen by many Democrats as the best possible pick-up opportunity of all the Class 3 Senate seats.[4]
The primary was held on May 17, 2022, with Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman securing the Democratic nomination[5] and Mehmet Oz securing the Republican nomination.
While Fetterman's nomination was announced soon after the election, in the Republican primary, results were still being tabulated weeks later. Mehmet Oz and David McCormick had finished "neck and neck", separated by a difference of 0.1% or 972 votes. Pennsylvania election law requires an automatic recount if the difference between the top two candidates for a statewide office is 0.5% of the vote or less. On June 3, McCormick conceded the race to Oz, making Oz the first Muslim to be nominated by either major party for U.S. Senate.[6]
Republican primary
Campaign
In October 2020, incumbent Republican Senator Pat Toomey announced that he would not run for re-election, stating that he wished to return to the private sector.[7]
By October 2021, businessman Jeff Bartos, who had posted strong fund-raising totals, and veteran Sean Parnell, who had the endorsement of former President Donald Trump, emerged as the race's front-runners.[8] Parnell's campaign was rocked in November 2021, after Parnell's ex-wife, Laurie Snell, testified in court during a custody hearing for the couple's children that Parnell strangled and spit on her, abused their children, and told her to "go get an abortion".[9] Even prior to these allegations doubts had arisen among Republicans regarding Parnell's ability to fundraise, and it became widely assumed that he would suspend his campaign if he did not win custody of his children.[10] On November 22, 2021, Snell was given custody of the children and Parnell subsequently announced that he was suspending his campaign.[11]
On November 30, with Parnell out of the race, Mehmet Oz, a celebrity doctor and television personality, announced his candidacy.[12] Oz's campaign entered an immediate controversy over whether Oz himself was a resident of Pennsylvania, as he had lived in Cliffside Park, New Jersey, for most of his life and had only registered to vote in Pennsylvania in October 2020.[12][13] The January 2022 entrance of David McCormick prompted attacks for his past detraction of Trump and criticism of "America First" economic policies from Oz allies.[14] Super PACs allied to McCormick hit back with a spate of highly funded television advertisements, accusing Oz of being a "Hollywood liberal".[15]
Republican straw polls in January 2022 indicated strong support for Bartos and Kathy Barnette among party activists as the campaign started to escalate. Bartos won the Republican State Committee Central Caucus's straw poll, placing first with 49 votes, while Barnette finished in second place with 30 votes. McCormick and Sands trailed at third and fourth place; and Oz and Bochetto performed poorly, each receiving only one vote.[16][17]
The McCormick campaign targeted Oz's ties to Turkey and called on him to renounce his Turkish citizenship, accusing the candidate of harboring dual loyalties.[18] Oz later stated that if he were elected to the Senate, he would renounce his Turkish citizenship.[19] Former President Trump endorsed Oz on April 10, citing the popularity of his television show and perceived appeal to female voters.[20]
Oz had been ahead of the other candidates in the polls since the start of his campaign, with McCormick soon rising quickly in the polls to challenge Oz in the low 20s. Barnette had also begun to rise in the polls at this point after a string of attention-getting debate performances and an ad spend in support of her by the Club for Growth, and her late surge prompted a change in tactics from the two frontrunners, who had largely ignored her as irrelevant until then.[21] Pro-Oz Super PAC American Leadership Action launched an ad campaign accusing Barnette of supporting Black Lives Matter, while McCormick stated that Barnette was unelectable, citing her heavy loss in a U.S. House race the previous election cycle.[21] Oz himself also accused Barnette of Islamophobia, pointing to a 2015 tweet in which she stated that "Pedophilia is a Cornerstone of Islam."[22]
Candidates
Nominee
- Mehmet Oz, cardiothoracic surgeon, host of The Dr. Oz Show, and member of the President's Council on Sports, Fitness, and Nutrition (2018–2022)[23][24]
Eliminated in primary
- Kathy Barnette, Armed Forces Reserves veteran, author, political commentator on Fox News, and nominee for PA-04 in 2020[24][25]
- Jeff Bartos, businessman, philanthropist and nominee for Lieutenant Governor in 2018[26][24]
- George Bochetto, former Pennsylvania State Boxing Commissioner (1996–2002)[27][28][24]
- Sean Gale, candidate for the Montgomery County Commission in 2019[29][30][24]
- David McCormick, former U.S. Under Secretary of the Treasury for International Affairs (2007–2009) and CEO of Bridgewater Associates (2020–2022)[31]
- Carla Sands, former U.S. Ambassador to Denmark (2017–2021)[32][33][24]
Disqualified
- John Debellis, small business owner[35]
- John Eichenberg, truck driver[36]
- Robert Jeffries, perennial candidate[37]
- Ronald Johnson, U.S. Army veteran[38]
- Richard Mulholland, HVAC technician[39]
- Max Richardson[40]
- Martin Rosenfeld, Deputy Sheriff of Elk County, Pennsylvania and Treasurer of the Elk County Republican Party[41]
- David Xu, U.S. Army veteran, college professor and IT business owner[42]
Withdrew
- Sean Parnell, U.S. Army veteran, author, and nominee for PA-17 in 2020 (endorsed McCormick)[11]
- Craig Snyder, former Chief of Staff to U.S. Senator Arlen Specter[43][44][45]
- Everett Stern, whistleblower, private intelligence agency owner, and candidate for PA-13 in 2014 and U.S. Senate in 2016 (running as an independent)[46]
Declined
- Kenneth Braithwaite, former U.S. Secretary of the Navy (2020–2021), former U.S. Ambassador to Norway (2018–2020), and former advisor to U.S. Senator Arlen Specter[47]
- Mike Kelly, U.S. representative for PA-16; formerly PA-03 (2011–present)[48][49] (endorsed Parnell)
- Paul Mango, former Deputy Chief of Staff for Policy at the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (2019–2021), and candidate for Governor in 2018[50]
- Keith Rothfus, former U.S. representative for PA-12 (2013–2019)[51][52]
- Kiron Skinner, Taube Professor of International Relations and Politics at Carnegie Mellon University and former Director of Policy Planning at the U.S. State Department (2018–2019)[53]
- Pat Toomey, incumbent U.S. senator[2]
- Donald Trump Jr., businessman and son of former President Donald Trump (endorsed Parnell)[54][55][56]
Debates and forums
No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Participants | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Key: P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn |
||||||||||||
Kathy Barnette | George Bochetto | Jeff Bartos | Sean Gale | David McCormick | Mehmet Oz | Carla Sands | Everett Stern | |||||
1 | Feb. 22, 2022 | BroadandLiberty.com Pennsylvania Chamber of Business & Industry |
Becky Corbin | Video | P | P | P | N | A | A | A | P |
2 | Apr. 25, 2022 | ABC27 | Dennis Owens Lisa Sylvester |
P | N | P | N | P | P | P | W | |
3 | May 4, 2022 | Newsmax TV | Greta Van Susteren Rick Dayton |
P | N | P | N | P | P | P | W |
Endorsements
- Executive branch officials
- Michael Flynn, United States National Security Advisor (2017) (Democrat)[57]
- Sebastian Gorka, Deputy Assistant to the President (2017)[58]
- U.S. Senators
- Joni Ernst, U.S. senator from Iowa (2015–present), Iowa state senator from the 12th district (2011–2014)[59]
- U.S. Representatives
- Scott Perry, U.S. Representative for Pennsylvania's 10th congressional district (2013–present)[60]
- Burgess Owens, U.S. representative for Utah's 4th congressional district (2021–present)[58]
- State legislators
- Cris Dush, Pennsylvania state senator from the 25th district (2020–present), Pennsylvania State Representative from the 66th district (2014–2020)[59]
- Vernon Jones, Georgia state representative (1993–2001, 2017–2021) (former Democrat)[58]
- Doug Mastriano, Pennsylvania state senator for the 33rd district (2019–present)[59]
- Organizations
- Club for Growth[61]
- Pennsylvania State Police Fraternal Order of Police Pioneer Lodge #37[59]
- Gun Owners of America[62]
- Republican National Hispanic Assembly[63]
- Susan B. Anthony List[64]
- Individuals
- Jack Brewer, former NFL Safety[65]
- Tomi Lahren, conservative political commentator and former television host[58]
- John Ratzenberger, actor[59]
- U.S. Representatives
Fred Keller, U.S. Representative for Pennsylvania's 12th congressional district (2019–present), former member of the Pennsylvania House of Representatives from the 85th district (2011–2019)[66] (switched endorsement to Oz)[67]
- Statewide officials
- Stacy Garrity, Pennsylvania Treasurer (2021–present)[68]
- State legislators
- Ryan Aument, Pennsylvania state senator from the 36th District (2015–present), Pennsylvania State Representative from the 41st district (2011–2014)[59]
- Torren Ecker, Pennsylvania state representative from the 193st district (2019–present)[69]
- Sue Helm, Pennsylvania state representative from the 104th district (2007–present)[59]
- John D. Hershey, Pennsylvania state representative from the 82nd district (2018–present)[70]
- R. Lee James, Pennsylvania state representative from the 64th district (2013–present)[71]
- Barry Jozwiak, Pennsylvania state representative from the 5th district (2015–present)[59]
- Aaron Kaufer, Pennsylvania state representative from the 120th district (2015–present)[72]
- Dawn Keefer, Pennsylvania state representative from the 92nd district (2015–present)[69]
- Dan Laughlin, Pennsylvania state senator from the 49th district (2017–present)[69]
- Wayne Langerholc, Pennsylvania state senator from the 35th district (2017–present)[70]
- Scott Martin, Pennsylvania state senator from the 13th district (2017–present), member of the Lancaster County Board of Commissioners (2008–2016)[59]
- Bob Mensch, Pennsylvania state senator from the 24th district (2009–present), Pennsylvania state representative from the 147th district (2007–2009)[69]
- Jack Rader, Pennsylvania state representative from the 176th district (2015–present)[59]
- Frank Ryan, Pennsylvania state representative from the 101st district (2016–present)[59]
- Tommy Sankey, Pennsylvania state representative from the 73rd district (2015–present), Pennsylvania state representative from the 74th district (2013–2015)[69]
- Patrick J. Stefano, Pennsylvania state senator from the 32nd district (2015–present)[70]
- Jesse Topper, Pennsylvania state representative from the 78th district (2014–present)[70]
- Scott Wagner, Pennsylvania state senator from the 28th district (2014–2018), Republican nominee for Governor in 2018[73]
- Judy Ward, Pennsylvania state senator from the 30th district (2019–present), Pennsylvania State Representative from the 80th district (2015–2018)[69]
- Organizations
- Individuals
- John D. Arnold, philanthropist and founder of Arnold Ventures LLC[74]
- Kenneth Langone, billionaire businessman, investor, and philanthropist[74]
- Ross Perot Jr., real-estate developer[74]
- Judges
- Sandra Schultz Newman, justice of the Pennsylvania Supreme Court (1996–2006), judge of the Pennsylvania Commonwealth Court (1994–1995)[59]
- Labor unions
- Fraternal Order of Police Philadelphia – Lodge #5[59]
- Individuals
- Roger Stone, political consultant and lobbyist[75]
- Executive branch officials
- Gary Cohn, Director of the National Economic Council (2017–2018) (Democratic)[76]
- Kellyanne Conway, senior counselor to the President (2017–2020)[77]
- Emil Henry, Assistant Secretary for Financial Institutions (2005–2007)[76]
- Hope Hicks, counselor to the President (2020–2021), White House Communications Director (2017–2018), White House Director of Strategic Communications (2017)[77]
- Larry Kudlow, Director of the National Economic Council[14]
- Robert Lighthizer, United States Trade Representative (2017–2021)[59]
Stephen Miller, Senior Advisor to the President (2017–2021), White House Director of Speechwriting (2017–2021)[77] (switched endorsement to Oz)[78]- Justin Muzinich, United States Deputy Secretary of the Treasury (2018–2021)[76]
- Mike Pompeo, United States Secretary of State (2018–2021), Director of the CIA (2017–2018), U.S. Representative for Kansas's 4th congressional district (2011–2017)[79]
- Matthew Pottinger, United States Deputy National Security Advisor (2019–2021)[80]
- Dina Powell, United States Deputy National Security Advisor for Strategy (2017–2018), Assistant Secretary of State for Educational and Cultural Affairs (2005–2007), Director of the White House Presidential Personnel Office (2003–2005) (McCormick's wife)[77]
- Sarah Huckabee Sanders, White House Press Secretary (2017–2019) White House Deputy Press Secretary (2017), 2022 candidate for Governor of Arkansas[77]
- Tony Sayegh, United States Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Public Affairs (2017–2019)[80]
- Jim Schultz, associate White House Counsel (2017), General Counsel to the Governor of Pennsylvania (2012–2014)[77]
- Cliff Sims, senior advisor to the Director of National Intelligence (2020–2021), Special Assistant to the President (2017–2018)[77]
- Robert K. Steel, Under Secretary of the Treasury for Domestic Finance (2006–2008)[76]
- David Urban, chair of the American Battle Monuments Commission (2018–2021)[77]
- U.S. Senators
- Ted Cruz, U.S. Senator from Texas (2013–present), Solicitor General of Texas (2003–2008), candidate for President of the United States in 2016[81]
- Rick Santorum, U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania (1995–2007), U.S. Representative from Pennsylvania's 18th congressional district (1991–1995)[82]
- Dan Sullivan, U.S. Senator from Alaska (2015–present), Attorney General of Alaska (2009–2010)[83]
- U.S. Governors
- Mike Huckabee, Governor of Arkansas (1996–2007), Lieutenant Governor of Arkansas (1993–1996)[59]
- U.S. Representatives
- Dan Meuser, U.S. Representative for Pennsylvania's 9th congressional district (2019–present)[84]
- Elise Stefanik, U.S. Representative for New York's 21st congressional district (2015–present), Chair of the House Republican Conference (2021–present)[59]
- Glenn Thompson, U.S. Representative from Pennsylvania's 15th congressional district (2019–present), former U.S. Representative from Pennsylvania's 5th congressional district (2009–2019)[85]
- Local officials
- Joel Klein, New York City Schools Chancellor (2002–2011), United States Assistant Attorney General for the Antitrust Division (1996–2000), Deputy White House Counsel (1993–1995) (Democratic)[86]
- Party officials
- Robert Gleason, Chair of the Pennsylvania Republican Party (2006–2017), Secretary of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania (1985–1987)[77]
- Christine Toretti, Member of the Republican National Committee from Pennsylvania (1997–present)[77]
- Labor unions
- Organizations
- Newspapers and other media
- Individuals
- Stanley Druckenmiller, former lead investor for the Quantum Fund and hedge fund manager[86]
- William E. Ford, chairman and CEO of General Atlantic[86]
- Hugh Hewitt, radio host, commentator[88]
- Kenneth C. Griffin, hedge fund manager and CEO of Citadel LLC[86]
- Paul Tudor Jones, hedge fund manager (Independent)[86]
- John F. W. Rogers, executive vice president, chief of staff and secretary to the board of Goldman Sachs[76]
- Stephen A. Schwarzman, chairman and CEO of The Blackstone Group[86]
- Dan Senor, former political advisor to Mitt Romney[76]
- U.S. Presidents
- Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States (2017–2021) (previously endorsed Parnell)[89]
- Executive branch officials
- Ben Carson, Secretary of Housing and Urban Development (2017–2021)[59]
- Louis Freeh, Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation (1993–2001), Judge of the United States District Court for the Southern District of New York (1991–1993)[90]
- Stephen Miller, Senior Advisor to the President (2017–2021), White House Director of Speechwriting (2017–2021)[85] (previously endorsed McCormick)[77]
- Rick Perry, Secretary of Energy (2017–2019), Governor of Texas (2000–2015)[59]
- Wilbur Ross, United States Secretary of Commerce (2017–2021)[14]
- Frank Ursomarso, White House Communications Director (1981)[90]
- Ryan Zinke, United States Secretary of the Interior (2017–2019), U.S. Representative from Montana's at-large congressional district (2015–2017)[59]
- U.S. Representatives
- Mike Castle, U.S. representative from Delaware's at-large congressional district (1993–2011), Governor of Delaware (1985–1992), Lieutenant Governor of Delaware (1981–1985)[90]
- Fred Keller, U.S. representative from Pennsylvania's 12th congressional district (2019–present), former member of the Pennsylvania House of Representatives from the 85th district (2011–2019)[85] (previously endorsed Bartos)[66]
- Guy Reschenthaler, U.S. representative from Pennsylvania's 14th congressional district (2019–present) (previously endorsed Parnell)[91]
- Lloyd Smucker, U.S. representative from Pennsylvania's 11th congressional district (2019–present), former U.S. Representative from Pennsylvania's 16th congressional district (2017–2019), member of the Pennsylvania State Senate from the 13th district (2009–2016)[85]
- Statewide officials
- George Pataki, governor of New York (1995–2006)[92]
- Sean Reyes, Attorney General of Utah (2013–present)[59]
- Local officials
- Rudy Giuliani, mayor of New York City (1994–2001)[92]
- Rudy Washington, Deputy Mayor of New York City (1994–1996)[92]
- Party officials
- Andrea Catsimatidis, chair of the Manhattan Republican Party (2017–present)[92]
- Individuals
- Shmuley Boteach, Orthodox Jewish rabbi, author, and TV host[93]
- John Catsimatidis, businessman and radio talk show host[92]
- Ben duPont, businessman and member of the du Pont family[90]
- Harold Hamm, businessman[85]
- Sean Hannity, conservative political commentator (Conservative Party)[14]
- Ted Nugent, musician and activist[59]
- Nelson Peltz, billionaire businessman and Chairman of The Wendy's Company[94]
- Hilary Geary Ross, philanthropist[94]
- Michael G. Rubin, CEO of Fanatics and co-owner of the Philadelphia 76ers and New Jersey Devils[94]
- Jean Shafiroff, socialite[92]
- Melania Trump, former First Lady of the United States (2017–2021)[82]
- Steve Wynn, real-estate developer and art collector[14]
- Executive branch officials
- Frank E. Baxter, Ambassador to Uruguay (2006–2009)[59]
- Robin Bernstein, United States ambassador to the Dominican Republic (2018–2021)[59]
- Ulrich Brechbuhl, Counselor of the United States Department of State (2018–2021), acting Under Secretary of State for Public Diplomacy and Public Affairs (2020)[59]
- David Cornstein, United States Ambassador to Hungary (2018–2020)[59]
- Randy Evans, United States ambassador to Luxembourg (2018–2021)[59]
- David M. Friedman, United States Ambassador to Israel (2017–2021)[59]
- Callista Gingrich, United States ambassador to the Holy See (2017–2021)[59]
- George Edward Glass, United States Ambassador to Portugal (2017–2021)[59]
- Pete Hoekstra, United States Ambassador to the Netherlands (2018–2021), U.S. Representative for Michigan's 2nd congressional district (1993–2011)[59]
- W. Robert Kohorst, United States Ambassador to Croatia (2018–2021)[59]
- Lana Marks, United States Ambassador to South Africa (2019–2021)[59]
- Jamie McCourt, United States Ambassador to France and Monaco (2017–2021)[59]
- Ed McMullen, United States Ambassador to Switzerland and Liechtenstein (2017–2021)[59]
- Robert C. O'Brien, Former National Security Advisor (2019–2021)[95]
- Robert Pence, United States Ambassador to Finland (2018–2021)[59]
- Adrian Zuckerman, United States Ambassador to Romania (2019–2021)[59]
- U.S. Senators
- Scott Brown, 19th United States Ambassador to New Zealand and Samoa (2017–2020), U.S. Senator from Massachusetts (2010–2013)[59]
- U.S. Representatives
- Newt Gingrich, U.S. representative for Georgia's 6th congressional district (1979–1999) and 50th Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives (1995–1999)[96]
- State legislators
- Matt E. Baker, speaker pro tempore of the Pennsylvania House of Representatives (2011–2018), Pennsylvania state representative from the 68th district (1993–2018)[59]
- Greg Rothman, Pennsylvania state representative from the 87th district (2015–present)[59]
- David Maloney, Pennsylvania state representative from the 130th district (2011–present)[59]
- U.S. Presidents
Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States (2017–2021)(switched endorsement to Oz after Parnell withdrew)[97]
- U.S. Senators
- Josh Hawley, U.S. senator from Missouri (2019–present)[98]
- U.S. Representatives
- Dan Crenshaw, U.S. representative for Texas's 2nd congressional district (2019–present)[99]
- Ronny Jackson, U.S. representative for Texas's 13th congressional district (2021–present)[100]
- Mike Kelly, U.S. representative for Pennsylvania's 16th congressional district (2019–present), U.S. representative for Pennsylvania's 3rd congressional district (2011–2019)[101]
Guy Reschenthaler, U.S. Representative for Pennsylvania's 14th congressional district (2019–present)(switched endorsement to Oz after Parnell withdrew)[101]
- Individuals
- Donald Trump Jr., businessman and son of former President Donald Trump[56]
- Executive branch officials
- Bill Kristol, Chief of Staff to the Vice President (1989–1993) and founder of The Weekly Standard and editor of The Bulwark (Democrat)[44]
- Miles Taylor, chief of staff to the United States Secretary of Homeland Security (2019)[102]
- U.S. Representatives
- James C. Greenwood, U.S. representative for Pennsylvania's 8th congressional district (1993–2005)[44]
- Joe Walsh, U.S. representative for Illinois's 8th congressional district (2011–2013) (Independent)[102]
- Organizations
- Newspapers and other media
Polling
- Graphical summary
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Kathy Barnette |
Jeff Bartos |
David McCormick |
Mehmet Oz |
Carla Sands |
Other[b] | Margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Real Clear Politics | May 3–16, 2022 | May 17, 2022 | 24.2% | 5.4% | 19.6% | 26.8% | 6.0% | 18.0% | Oz +2.6 |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Kathy Barnette |
Jeff Bartos |
David McCormick |
Mehmet Oz |
Sean Parnell |
Carla Sands |
Other | Undecided | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Trafalgar Group (R) | May 14–16, 2022 | 1,195 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 27% | 7% | 22% | 29% | – | 7% | 4%[d] | 6% | |||||
Emerson College | May 14–15, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 24% | 5% | 21% | 28% | – | 6% | 1%[e] | 15% | |||||
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) | May 12–15, 2022 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 27% | 2% | 11% | 28% | – | 3% | 3%[f] | 26% | |||||
Osage Research (R)[A] | May 12–13, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 24% | 6% | 25% | 24% | – | 7% | 1%[g] | 13% | |||||
InsiderAdvantage (R) | May 7–9, 2022 | 750 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 21% | 5% | 19% | 23% | – | 5% | 3%[h] | 26% | |||||
The Trafalgar Group (R) | May 6–8, 2022 | 1,080 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 23% | 7% | 22% | 25% | – | 7% | 2%[i] | 15% | |||||
Fox News | May 3–7, 2022 | 1,001 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 19% | 7% | 20% | 22% | – | 8% | 4%[j] | 18% | |||||
Franklin & Marshall College | April 20 – May 1, 2022 | 325 (RV) | ± 6.9% | 12% | 2% | 16% | 18% | – | 5% | 6%[k] | 39% | |||||
The Trafalgar Group (R) | April 11–13, 2022 | 1,074 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 18% | 8% | 20% | 23% | – | 11% | 3%[l] | 17% | |||||
Franklin & Marshall College | March 30 – April 10, 2022 | 317 (RV) | ± 6.6% | 7% | 6% | 15% | 16% | – | 5% | 8%[m] | 43% | |||||
Eagle Consulting Group (R) | April 7–9, 2022 | 502 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 9% | 6% | 18% | 11% | – | 9% | 2%[n] | 45% | |||||
Emerson College | April 3–4, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 10% | 9% | 18% | 17% | – | 8% | 6%[o] | 33% | |||||
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[A] | March 29 – April 3, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 13% | 8% | 22% | 16% | – | 11% | 1%[p] | – | |||||
Emerson College | March 26–28, 2022 | 372 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 6% | 5% | 14% | 14% | – | 6% | 3%[q] | 51% | |||||
Basswood Research (R)[B] | March 19–21, 2022 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 11% | 5% | 22% | 25% | – | 13% | 1%[p] | 23% | |||||
Fox News | March 2–6, 2022 | 960 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 9% | 9% | 24% | 15% | – | 6% | 3%[r] | 31% | |||||
TargetPoint Consulting (R) | February 25–28, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 5% | 10% | 25% | 19% | – | 11% | 6% | 25% | |||||
Franklin & Marshall College | February 21–27, 2022 | 178 (LV) | ± 10.1% | 6% | 4% | 13% | 10% | – | 11% | 3% | 53% | |||||
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[A] | ~February 23, 2022 | – (LV) | – | 9% | 5% | 24% | 18% | – | 11% | 1%[p] | – | |||||
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[C] | February 16–18, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | – | – | 24% | 18% | – | – | 31% | 27% | |||||
Osage Research (R)[A] | February 13–16, 2022 | 825 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 7% | 6% | 24% | 21% | – | 11% | 3% | 28% | |||||
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[A] | ~February 9, 2022 | – (LV) | – | 9% | 5% | 17% | 23% | – | 17% | 1%[p] | – | |||||
The Trafalgar Group (R) | February 1–4, 2022 | 1,070 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 9% | 7% | 16% | 27% | – | 15% | 6%[s] | 22% | |||||
Osage Research (R)[A] | January 31 – February 2, 2022 | – (LV) | – | – | – | 19% | 29% | – | – | – | – | |||||
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[A] | ~January 6, 2022 | – (LV) | – | 9% | 8% | 13% | 31% | – | 12% | – | – | |||||
The Trafalgar Group (R) | December 13–16, 2021 | 1,062 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 8% | 3% | – | 19% | – | 7% | 12%[t] | 51% | |||||
Echelon Insights (R) | December 1–3, 2021 | 200 (LV) | ± 6.9% | 7% | 4% | – | 11% | – | 5% | 10%[u] | 63% | |||||
Parnell withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
Civiqs (D) | October 31 – November 5, 2021 | 799 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 7% | 6% | – | – | 31% | 8% | 2%[v] | 54% | |||||
Franklin & Marshall College | October 18–24, 2021 | 184 (RV) | ± 8.8% | 3% | 2% | – | – | 11% | 2% | 3%[w] | 78% | |||||
OnMessage Inc. (R)[D] | October 11–14, 2021 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | – | 7% | – | – | 27% | 4% | 5% | 57% | |||||
Franklin & Marshall College | August 9–15, 2021 | 154 (RV) | ± 10.9% | 6% | 4% | – | – | 14% | 1% | 10%[x] | 66% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
David McCormick |
Mehmet Oz |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TargetPoint Consulting (R) | February 25–28, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 56% | 26% | 18% |
Results
Following the first night of results, it became clear that Oz and McCormick were the top two vote-getters in the election; however, the margin between was too close to declare a victor.[105] A mandatory recount then began.[106][105] Former President Trump encouraged Oz to declare victory on election night, stating that Oz would only be defeated as a result of election fraud; these claims were noted by Politico as echoing Trump's claims of election fraud in the 2020 presidential election.[107]
On June 3, McCormick conceded to Oz, saying he could not make up the deficit in the recount.[108]
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Mehmet Oz | 419,999 | 31.1 | |
Republican | David McCormick | 419,048 | 31.0 | |
Republican | Kathy Barnette | 331,864 | 24.6 | |
Republican | Carla Sands | 73,316 | 5.4 | |
Republican | Jeff Bartos | 66,619 | 4.9 | |
Republican | Sean Gale | 20,251 | 1.5 | |
Republican | George Bochetto | 14,480 | 1.1 | |
Total votes | 1,345,577 | 100.0 |
Democratic primary
Campaign
The first two major Democratic candidates to announce were Lieutenant Governor of Pennsylvania John Fetterman and state representative Malcolm Kenyatta.[109] Both Fetterman and Kenyatta were considered to be staunchly progressive Democrats, but the two men were felt to appeal to different demographics.[109] By July 2021, Fetterman was considered the frontrunner in the Democratic primary, as a result of his high name recognition and strong fundraising.[110] U.S. Representative Conor Lamb, a moderate Democrat considered a member of the party establishment, entered the race on August 6, 2021.[111][112]
As the campaign progressed, Lamb and Fetterman became the two most prominent candidates, with Kenyatta and Montgomery County Commissioner Val Arkoosh also receiving media attention. Fetterman had maintained his frontrunner status as of December, and the other three contenders were viewed as mainly competing with each other in order to claim the anti-Fetterman mantle.[113] On February 4, 2022, Arkoosh withdrew from the race, her campaign having previously suffered from poor poll results and low support from party activists, leaving Kenyatta as the only major candidate from the Philadelphia region.[114] Both Kenyatta and Lamb were considered to have a good chance at picking up voters who had previously supported Arkoosh, Lamb for ideological reasons and Kenyatta for geographical ones.[114]
In addition to Fetterman, Kenyatta, and Lamb, two minor candidates also made the Democratic primary ballot, namely Kevin Baumlin, a hospital physician, and Alexandra Khalil, a municipal official. Baumlin withdrew from the race on March 31, leaving only Khalil in addition to the three major candidates.[115]
Candidates
Nominee
- John Fetterman, Lieutenant Governor of Pennsylvania (2019–present), former mayor of Braddock (2005–2019) and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2016[48][116][24][117]
Eliminated in primary
- Malcolm Kenyatta, state representative for the 181st district (2019–present)[118][24]
- Alexandria Khalil, member of the Jenkintown Borough Council (2019–present)[119][24]
- Conor Lamb, U.S. representative for PA-17, formerly PA-18 (2018–present)[120][121][24]
Disqualified
- Kael Dougherty, data operations associate[122]
- Larry Johnson, attorney[123]
- Alan Shank, retail worker[124]
- Walter Sluzynsky, postal worker[125]
- Lew Tapera, retail worker[126]
Withdrew
- Val Arkoosh, member of the Montgomery County Board of Commissioners (2014–present) and physician[127][114]
- Kevin Baumlin, chief of Emergency and Urgent Care Services at Pennsylvania Hospital[128][115]
- John McGuigan, former president of the Norristown Municipal Council (1994–1997)[129][130]
- Eric Orts, professor at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania (endorsed Kenyatta)[131]
- Sharif Street, state senator for the 3rd district (2017–present), vice chair of the Pennsylvania Democratic Party, son of former Mayor of Philadelphia John Street (endorsed Lamb)[132]
Declined
- Brendan Boyle, U.S. representative for PA-02; formerly PA-13 (2015–present)[133]
- Madeleine Dean, U.S. representative for PA-04 (2019–present) (running for re-election)[134]
- Eugene DePasquale, former Pennsylvania Auditor General (2013–2021) and nominee for PA-10 in 2020[135]
- Chrissy Houlahan, U.S. Representative for PA-06 (2019–present) (running for re-election)[136]
- Jim Kenney, Mayor of Philadelphia (2016–present) (endorsed Lamb)[137]
- Joe Sestak, former U.S. representative for PA-07 (2007–2011), former Vice Admiral of the U.S. Navy, nominee for U.S. Senate in 2010, candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016, and candidate for President in 2020[138]
- Josh Shapiro, Pennsylvania Attorney General (2017–present) (running for Governor)[139][140]
- Joe Torsella, former Pennsylvania State Treasurer (2017–2021)[141][142]
- Susan Wild, U.S. representative for PA-07; formerly PA-15 (2018–present) (running for re-election)[143]
Debates
No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Participants | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Key: P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn |
|||||||
John Fetterman | Malcolm Kenyatta | Conor Lamb | |||||
1 | Apr. 3, 2022 | Muhlenberg College | Becky Corbin Jenny DeHuff Ari Mittleman |
Video | A[y] | P | P |
2 | Apr. 21, 2022 | ABC27 | Dennis Owens Lisa Sylvester |
Video | P | P | P |
Endorsements
- State legislators
- Maria Collett, Pennsylvania State Senator from the 12th district (2019–present)[59]
- Judy Schwank, Pennsylvania State Senator from the 11th district (2011–present)[59]
- Tim Briggs, Pennsylvania State Representative from the 149th district (2009–present)[59]
Joe Ciresi, Pennsylvania State Representative from the 146th district (2019–present)(switched endorsement to Lamb after Arkoosh withdrew)[59]- Mary Jo Daley, Pennsylvania State Representative from the 148th district (2013–present)[59]
- Leanne Krueger, Pennsylvania State Representative from the 161st district (2015–present)[59]
Steve Malagari, Pennsylvania State Representative from the 53rd district (2019–present)(switched endorsement to Lamb after Arkoosh withdrew)[59]- Ben Sanchez, Pennsylvania State Representative from the 153rd district (2019–present)[59]
Joe Webster, Pennsylvania State Representative from the 150th district (2019–present)(switched endorsement to Lamb after Arkoosh withdrew)[59]- Pam DeLissio, Pennsylvania State Representative from the 194th district (2011–present)[59]
- Organizations
- Local officials
- Paige Gebhardt Cognetti, Mayor of Scranton (2020–present)[146]
- Labor unions
- American Postal Workers Union – Pennsylvania chapter[147]
- United Food and Commercial Workers Local 1776[148]
- United Steelworkers District 10[148]
- AFSCME – District Council 47[59]
- Organizations
- Council for a Livable World[149]
- Data for Progress[150][151]
- MarchOn[152]
- National Organization for the Reform of Marijuana Laws[148]
- Newspapers and other media
- The Philadelphia Tribune (Democratic primary only)[153]
- Individuals
- Sean McElwee, activist and co-founder of Fetterman polling firm Data for Progress[150][151]
- U.S. Representatives
- Sharice Davids, U.S. Representative for Kansas's 3rd congressional district (2019–present)[59]
- Al Green, U.S. Representative for Texas's 9th congressional district (2005–present)[59]
- State legislators
- Jessica Benham, Pennsylvania state representative from the 36th district (2021–present)[154]
- Matthew Bradford, Pennsylvania state representative from the 70th district (2009–present)[59]
- Donna Bullock, Pennsylvania state representative from the 195th district (2015–present)[59]
- Danilo Burgos, Pennsylvania state representative from the 197th district (2019–present)[59]
- Nancy Guenst, Pennsylvania state representative from the 152nd district (2021–present)[59]
- Joseph C. Hohenstein, Pennsylvania state representative from the 177th district (2019–present)[59]
- Stephen Kinsey, Pennsylvania state representative from the 201st district (2013–present)[59]
- Maureen Madden, Pennsylvania state representative from the 115th district (2009–present)[59]
- Jeanne McNeill, Pennsylvania state representative from the 133rd district (2018–present)[59]
- Local officials
- Kendra Brooks, Philadelphia City Councilor elected at-large (2020–present) (Working Families Party)[59]
- Jamie Gauthier, Philadelphia City Councilor from District 3 (2020–present)[155]
- Katherine Gilmore Richardson, Philadelphia City Councilor elected at-large (2020–present)[155]
- Mark Squilla, Philadelphia City Councilor from District 1 (2020–present) (2012–present)[59]
- Isaiah Thomas, Philadelphia City Councilor elected at-large (2020–present)[155]
- Labor unions
- American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees District Council #33[156]
- American Federation of Teachers[157]
- Service Employees International Union[158]
- Organizations
- Political parties
- Individuals
- Lee Daniels, movie director, screenwriter, and movie producer[163]
- Gloria Steinem, author, women's rights activist[164]
- U.S. Senators
- Joe Manchin, U.S. Senator from West Virginia (2010–present)[165]
- U.S. Representatives
- Bob Brady, former U.S. Representative for Pennsylvania's 1st congressional district (1998–2019), Chair of the Democratic Party of Philadelphia (1986–present)[166]
- Matt Cartwright, U.S. Representative for Pennsylvania's 8th congressional district (2019–present), U.S. Representative for Pennsylvania's 17th congressional district (2013–2019), Co-Chair of the House Democratic Policy and Communications Committee (2019–present)[167]
- Mike Doyle, U.S. Representative for Pennsylvania's 18th congressional district (2019–present), Pennsylvania's 14th congressional district (2003–2019), U.S. Representative for Pennsylvania's 18th congressional district (1995–2003)[59]
- Joe Neguse, U.S. Representative for Colorado's 2nd congressional district (2019–present), Co-Chair of the House Democratic Policy and Communications Committee (2021–present)[59]
- State legislators
- Amen Brown, Pennsylvania state representative from the 190th district (2021–present)[59]
- Ryan Bizzarro, Pennsylvania state representative from the 3rd district (2013–present)[168]
- Jim Brewster, Pennsylvania state Senator from the 45th district (2010–present)[169]
- Michael B. Carroll, Pennsylvania state representative from the 118th district (2018–present)[167]
- Joe Ciresi, Pennsylvania State Representative from the 146th district (2019–present)[59]
- Jay Costa, Democratic Leader of the Pennsylvania Senate (2011–present), Pennsylvania state Senator from the 43rd district (1996–present), Register of Wills of Allegheny County (1992–1996)[170]
- Tina Davis, Pennsylvania state representative from the 141st district (2011–present)[59]
- Dan Deasy, Pennsylvania state representative from the 27th district (2009–present)[59]
- Frank Dermody, Democratic Leader of the Pennsylvania House of Representatives (2011–2020), Pennsylvania state representative from the 33rd district (1990–2020)[120]
- Wayne D. Fontana, Pennsylvania state Senator from the 42rd district (2005–present), Allegheny County Councilor from the 12th district (2000–2005)[169]
- Dan Frankel, Pennsylvania state representative from the 23rd district (1999–present)[59]
- Patrick Harkins, Pennsylvania state representative from the 1st district (2007–present)[59]
- Kristine Howard, Pennsylvania state representative from the 167th district (2019–present)[59]
- William C. Kortz, Pennsylvania state representative from the 38th district (2007–2020)[59]
- Bridget Malloy Kosierowski, Pennsylvania state representative from the 114th district (2019–present)[167]
- Anita Kulik, Pennsylvania state representative from the 45th district (2017–present)[59]
- Mark Longietti, Pennsylvania state representative from the 7th district (2007–present)[59]
- Steve Malagari, Pennsylvania state representative from the 53rd district (2019–present)[59]
- Robert Matzie, Pennsylvania state representative from the 16th district (2009–present)[59]
- Robert Merski, Pennsylvania state representative from the 2nd district (2019–present)[59]
- Dan Miller, Pennsylvania state representative from the 42nd district (2013–present)[59]
- Gerald Mullery, Pennsylvania state representative from the 199th district (2011–present)[167]
- Kyle Mullins, Pennsylvania state representative from the 112th district (2018–present)[167]
- Napoleon Nelson, Pennsylvania state representative from the 154th district (2021–present)[59]
- Eddie Day Pashinski, Pennsylvania state representative from the 121st district (2007–present)[167]
- Nick Pisciottano, Pennsylvania state representative from the 38th district (2021–present)[59]
- Mark Rozzi, Pennsylvania state representative from the 126th district (2013–present)[59]
- Steve Santarsiero, Pennsylvania state Senator from the 10th district (2019–present), Pennsylvania state representative from the 31st district (2009–2016)[59]
- Sharif Street, Pennsylvania state Senator from the 3rd district (2017–present)[171]
- Pam Snyder, Pennsylvania state representative from the 50th District (2013–present)[172]
- Joe Webster, Pennsylvania State Representative from the 150th district (2019–present)[59]
- Jake Wheatley, Pennsylvania state representative from the 19th district (2003–2022)[172]
- Dan K. Williams, Pennsylvania state representative from the 74th district (2019–present)[59]
- Local officials
- Ricky Burgess, Pittsburgh City Councilor (2008–present)[59]
- Anthony Coghill, Pittsburgh City Councilor (2018–present)[59]
- Rich Fitzgerald, Allegheny County Executive (2012–present)[121]
- Rick Gray, Mayor of Lancaster (2006–2018)[59]
- Curtis J. Jones Jr., Philadelphia City Councilor from the 4th district (2008–present)[59]
- Jim Kenney, Mayor of Philadelphia (2016–present)[173]
- Thomas J. Murphy Jr., Mayor of Pittsburgh (1994–2006)[120]
- Corey O'Connor, Pittsburgh City Councilor (2012–present)[59]
- J. William Reynolds, Mayor of Bethlehem (2022–present)[59]
- John F. Street, Mayor of Philadelphia (2000–2008)[171]
- Jack Stollsteimer, Delaware County District Attorney (2020–present)[174]
- Matthew Tuerk, Mayor of Allentown (2022–present)[59]
- Labor unions
- American Federation of Government Employees[59]
- American Federation of Teachers–Pittsburgh chapter[175]
- Communications Workers of America[176]
- International Association of Bridge, Structural, Ornamental and Reinforcing Iron Workers Local #3
- International Association of Heat and Frost Insulators and Allied Workers Local #2
- International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers Local #1044
- International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers Local #5, #98, #269, #654[177][178]
- International Brotherhood of Teamsters Local #205[59]
- International Union of Operating Engineers Local #66[59]
- International Union of Painters and Allied Trades Local #21, #51[59]
- Laborers' International Union of Eastern Pennsylvania[59]
- Laborers' International Union of Western Pennsylvania[59]
- Operative Plasterers' and Cement Masons' International Association Local #592[177][179]
- Pennsylvania Association of Staff Nurses and Allied Professionals[180]
- Philadelphia Building & Construction Trades Council[177]
- Pittsburgh Firefighters IAFF[59]
- Sheet Metal Workers' International Association Local #12[59]
- United Mine Workers Association[59]
- Utility Workers Union of America[59]
- Organizations
- National Organization for Women[181]
- Philadelphia Democratic Party[182]
- Stonewall Democrats PGH[183]
- VoteVets.org[184]
- Newspapers and other media
- Individuals
- Nina Ahmad, 2020 Democratic nominee for Pennsylvania Auditor General[181]
- James Carville, political consultant and head strategist of the 1992 Bill Clinton presidential campaign[186]
- Steve Cozen, founder and chairman of the Philadelphia-based law firm Cozen O'Connor[187]
Polling
- Graphical summary
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
John Fetterman |
Malcolm Kenyatta |
Conor Lamb |
Other [aa] |
Margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Real Clear Politics | March 26 – May 1, 2022 | May 5, 2022 | 43.0% | 6.0% | 12.0% | 39.0% | Fetterman +31.0 |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Val Arkoosh |
John Fetterman |
Malcolm Kenyatta |
Conor Lamb |
Sharif Street |
Other | Undecided | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Franklin & Marshall College | April 20 – May 1, 2022 | 357 (RV) | ± 6.6% | – | 53% | 4% | 14% | – | 6%[ab] | 22% | ||||||
Franklin & Marshall College | March 30 – April 10, 2022 | 356 (RV) | ± 6.2% | – | 41% | 4% | 17% | – | 9%[ac] | 26% | ||||||
GBAO (D)[E] | April 5–7, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | – | 44% | 17% | 19% | – | 4%[ad] | 15% | ||||||
Emerson College | March 26–28, 2022 | 471 (LV) | ± 4.5% | – | 33% | 8% | 10% | – | 12%[ae] | 37% | ||||||
Franklin & Marshall College | February 21–27, 2022 | 185 (LV) | ± 9.9% | – | 28% | 2% | 15% | – | 7% | 50% | ||||||
Impact Research (D)[F] | Early February 2022 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 3% | 47% | 7% | 17% | 5% | 8% | 13% | ||||||
Arkoosh withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
Data for Progress (D)[E] | January 26–31, 2022 | 730 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 4% | 46% | 12% | 16% | – | – | 22% | ||||||
Street withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
GQR Research (D)[G] | December 14–16, 2021 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 6% | 44% | 20% | 15% | – | 2% | 12% | ||||||
GBAO (D)[E] | November 16–23, 2021 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 5% | 42% | 15% | 16% | – | – | 21% | ||||||
Civiqs (D) | October 31 – November 5, 2021 | 929 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 2% | 52% | 5% | 12% | 2% | 6% | 21% | ||||||
Franklin & Marshall College | October 18–24, 2021 | 208 (RV) | ± 8.2% | 4% | 34% | 5% | 12% | 5% | 3% | 37% | ||||||
Franklin & Marshall College | August 9–15, 2021 | 175 (RV) | ± 10.2% | 6% | 33% | 5% | 12% | 0% | 3% | 42% | ||||||
Data for Progress (D)[E] | May 7–14, 2021 | 302 (LV) | ± 6.0% | 5% | 40% | 9% | 21% | 2% | 8%[af] | 14% |
Results
Fetterman won the Democratic primary by a landslide, winning all 67 counties in Pennsylvania, with Lamb in second place. Lamb's loss was attributed by Vanity Fair to numerous reasons, such as his not being known to voters in Eastern Pennsylvania, where the majority of Democratic voters were located, as said by the director of a progressive Democratic organization, and the far more contested Republican primary taking media attention that Lamb might have used to gain recognition.[190] Fetterman was also widely considered to have run an effective populist campaign, with The Atlantic noting that his campaign focused on the issues of "workers, wages and weed".[191]
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | John Fetterman | 751,537 | 58.6 | |
Democratic | Conor Lamb | 336,607 | 26.3 | |
Democratic | Malcolm Kenyatta | 139,121 | 10.9 | |
Democratic | Alexandria Khalil | 54,240 | 4.2 | |
Total votes | 1,281,505 | 100.0 |
Libertarian convention
Candidates
Nominee
Withdrew
- Steve Scheetz, powder coater and former chair of the Libertarian Party of Pennsylvania (2013–2015, 2019–2021)[195][196][197][198]
Green convention
Candidates
Nominee
- Richard L. Weiss, lawyer, nominee for attorney general in 2020, and nominee for judge of the Allegheny County Court of Common Pleas in 2021[199]
Independents
Candidates
Declared
- Quincy Magee (write-in candidate), inspector of elections for Philadelphia's 44th ward[200][201][202]
- Everett Stern, whistleblower, private intelligence agency owner, and Republican candidate for PA-13 in 2014 and U.S. Senate in 2016 (originally ran as a Republican)[203][46]
General election
Predictions
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[204] | Tossup | March 4, 2022 |
Inside Elections[205] | Tilt R | April 1, 2022 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[206] | Tossup | March 1, 2022 |
Politico[207] | Tossup | April 1, 2022 |
RCP[208] | Tossup | January 10, 2022 |
Fox News[209] | Tossup | May 12, 2022 |
Endorsements
- U.S. Presidents
- Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States (2017–2021)[210]
- Executive Branch officials
- Ben Carson, Secretary of Housing and Urban Development (2017–2021)[59]
- Louis Freeh, Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation (1993–2001), Judge of the United States District Court for the Southern District of New York (1991–1993)[90]
- Richard Grenell, Special Presidential Envoy for Serbia and Kosovo Peace Negotiations (2019–2021), U.S. Ambassador to Germany (2018–2020), Acting Director of National Intelligence (2020)[211]
- David McCormick, Under Secretary of the Treasury (2007–2009), Under Secretary of Commerce for Industry and Security (2005–2006)[212]
- Stephen Miller, Senior Advisor to the President (2017–2021), White House Director of Speechwriting (2017–2021)[85][77]
- Rick Perry, Secretary of Energy (2017–2019), Governor of Texas (2000–2015)[59]
- Dina Powell, United States Deputy National Security Advisor for Strategy (2017–2018), Assistant Secretary of State for Educational and Cultural Affairs (2005–2007), Director of the White House Presidential Personnel Office (2003–2005)[213]
- Wilbur Ross, United States Secretary of Commerce (2017–2021)[14]
- Frank Ursomarso, White House Communications Director (1981)[90]
- Ryan Zinke, United States Secretary of the Interior (2017–2019), U.S. Representative from Montana's at-large congressional district (2015–2017)[59]
- U.S. Senators
- Kevin Cramer, U.S. Senator from North Dakota (2019–present)[214]
- Rick Scott, U.S. Senator from Florida (2019–present), Governor of Florida (2011–2019)[215]
- U.S. Representatives
- Mike Castle, U.S. Representative from Delaware's at-large congressional district (1993–2011), Governor of Delaware (1985–1992), Lieutenant Governor of Delaware (1981–1985)[90]
- John Joyce, U.S. Representative from Pennsylvania's 13th congressional district (2019–present)[216]
- Fred Keller, U.S. Representative from Pennsylvania's 12th congressional district (2019–present), former member of the Pennsylvania House of Representatives from the 85th district (2011–2019)[85]
- Mike Kelly, U.S. Representative from Pennsylvania's 16th congressional district (2019–present), U.S. Representative from Pennsylvania's 3rd congressional district (2011–2019)[217]
- Alex Mooney, U.S. Representative from West Virginia's 2nd congressional district (2015–present), Chair of the Maryland Republican Party (2010–2013)[217]
- Guy Reschenthaler, U.S. Representative from Pennsylvania's 14th congressional district (2019–present)[218]
- Lloyd Smucker, U.S. Representative from Pennsylvania's 11th congressional district (2019–present), former U.S. Representative from Pennsylvania's 16th congressional district (2017–2019), member of the Pennsylvania State Senate from the 13th district (2009–2016)[85]
- Statewide officials
- Stacy Garrity, Treasurer of Pennsylvania (2021–present)[216]
- George Pataki, Governor of New York (1995–2006)[92]
- Sean Reyes, Attorney General of Utah (2013–present)[59]
- State legislators
- Dan Moul, Pennsylvania State Representative from the 91st district (2007–present)[219]
- Mike Regan, Pennsylvania State Senator from the 31st district (2017–present), Pennsylvania State Representative from the 92nd district (2013–2016)[220]
- Local officials
- Rudy Giuliani, Mayor of New York City (1994–2001)[92]
- Rudy Washington, Deputy Mayor of New York City (1994–1996)[92]
- Party officials
- Andrea Catsimatidis, Chair of the Manhattan Republican Party (2017–present)[92]
- Organizations
- Log Cabin Republicans[221]
- Pennsylvania College Republicans[222]
- Pennsylvania Republican Party[223]
- National Republican Senatorial Committee[224]
- Republican National Committee[225]
- Individuals
- Shmuley Boteach, Orthodox Jewish rabbi, author, and TV host[226]
- John Catsimatidis, businessman and radio talk show host[92]
- Dinesh D'Souza, political commentator and author[217]
- Ben duPont, businessman and member of the du Pont family[90]
- Harold Hamm, businessman[85]
- Sean Hannity, conservative political commentator (Conservative Party)[14]
- Mike Lindell, businessman, political activist, and far-right conspiracy theorist[216]
- Ted Nugent, musician and activist[59]
- Lisa Oz, television personality and Oz's wife[227]
- Nelson Peltz, billionaire businessman and Chairman of The Wendy's Company[94]
- Hilary Geary Ross, philanthropist[94]
- Michael G. Rubin, CEO of Fanatics and co-owner of the Philadelphia 76ers and New Jersey Devils[94]
- Jean Shafiroff, socialite[92]
- Melania Trump, former First Lady of the United States (2017–2021)[82]
- J.D. Vance, author and Republican nominee in the 2022 United States Senate election in Ohio[228]
- Steve Wynn, real-estate developer and art collector[14]
- U.S. Presidents
- Joe Biden, 46th President of the United States (2021–present), 47th Vice President of the United States (2009–2017), and U.S. Senator from Delaware (1973–2009)[229]
- Executive Branch Officials
- Hillary Clinton, United States Secretary of State (2009–2013), U.S. Senator from New York (2001–2009), First Lady of the United States (1993–2001), Democratic nominee for President of the United States in 2016[230]
- U.S. Senators
- Cory Booker, U.S. Senator from New Jersey (2013–present) and 38th Mayor of Newark (2006–2013)[231]
- Bob Casey Jr., U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania (2007–present), Chair of the United States Senate Special Committee on Aging (2021–present), Ranking Member of the United States Senate Special Committee on Aging (2017–2021), 34th Treasurer of Pennsylvania (2005–2007), and 49th Auditor General of Pennsylvania (1997–2005)[229]
- Dick Durbin, U.S. Senator from Illinois (1997–present), Senate Majority Whip (2007–2015, 2021–present), Chair of the Senate Judiciary Committee (2021–present), Senate Minority Whip (2005–2007, 2015–2021), and former U.S. Representative for Illinois's 20th congressional district (1983–1997)[232]
- Kirsten Gillibrand, U.S. Senator from New York (2009–present) and former U.S. Representative for New York's 20th congressional district (2007-2009)[233]
- Amy Klobuchar, U.S. Senator from Minnesota (2007–present), Chair of the Senate Rules Committee (2021-present), and County Attorney of Hennepin County (1999-2007)[234]
- Jeff Merkley, U.S. Senator from Oregon (2009–present), 64th Speaker of the Oregon House of Representatives (2007–2009), and Member of the Oregon House of Representatives from Oregon's 47th House district (1999–2009)[235]
- Chris Murphy, U.S. Senator from Connecticut (2013–present), former U.S. Representative for Connecticut's 5th congressional district (2007–2013), Member of the Connecticut State Senate from Connecticut's 16th State Senate district (2003–2007), and Member of the Connecticut House of Representatives from the 81st district (1999–2003)[232]
- Ben Nelson, former U.S. Senator from Nebraska (2001–2013), Governor of Nebraska (1991–1999)[236]
- Gary Peters, U.S. Senator from Michigan (2015–present), Chair of the United States Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs (2021–present), Chair of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (2021–present), Ranking Member of the United States Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs (2019–2021), U.S. Representative from Michigan's 14th congressional district (2013–2015), Michigan's 9th congressional district (2009–2013), and Member of the Michigan Senate from Michigan's 14th Senate district (1995–2002)[237]
- Brian Schatz, U.S. Senator from Hawaii (2012–present), Chair of the Senate Indian Affairs Committee (2021-present), Senate Democratic Chief Deputy Whip (2017-present), 11th Lieutenant Governor of Hawaii (2010-2012), Chair of the Hawaii Democratic Party]] (2008-2010), former Member of the Hawaii House of Representatives for 25th District (2002-2006), and former Member of the Hawaii House of Representatives for 24th District (1998-2002)[238]
- Chuck Schumer, Senate Majority Leader (2021–present), Chair of the Senate Democratic Caucus (2017–present), U.S. Senator from New York (1999–present), Senate Minority Leader (2017–2021), Chair of the Senate Democratic Policy Committee (2011–2017), Vice Chair of the Senate Democratic Caucus (2007–2017), Chair of the Senate Rules Committee (2009–2015), Chair of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (2005–2009), former U.S. Representative for New York's 9th congressional district (1993–1999), former U.S. Representative for New York's 10th congressional district (1983–1993), former U.S. Representative for New York's 16th congressional district (1981–1983), and member of the New York State Assembly from the 45th district (1975–1980)[232]
- Debbie Stabenow, U.S. Senator from Michigan (2001–present), Chair of the Senate Democratic Policy Committee (2017–present), Chair of the Senate Agriculture Committee (2011–2015, 2021–present), Ranking Member of the Senate Agriculture Committee (2015–2021), Secretary of the Senate Democratic Conference (2005–2007), former U.S. Representative for Michigan's 8th congressional district (1997–2001), Member of the Michigan Senate from Michigan's 24th Senate district (1991–1994), Member of the Michigan House of Representatives from Michigan's 58th House of Representatives district (1979–1991)[232]
- Elizabeth Warren, U.S. Senator from Massachusetts (2013–present), Vice Chair of the Senate Democratic Caucus (2017–present), Special Advisor for the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (2010–2011), and the Chair of the Congressional Oversight Panel (2008–2010)[232]
- U.S. Representatives
- Bob Brady, former U.S. Representative for Pennsylvania's 1st congressional district (1998–2019), Chair of the Democratic Party of Philadelphia (1986–present)[239]
- Brendan Boyle, U.S. Representative from Pennsylvania's 2nd congressional district (2019–present), U.S. Representative from Pennsylvania's 13th congressional district (2015–2019), Pennsylvania State Representative from the 170th district (2009–2015)[240]
- Madeleine Dean, U.S. Representative from Pennsylvania's 4th congressional district (2019–present), Pennsylvania State Representative from the 153rd district (2012–2018)[241]
- Gabby Giffords, U.S. Representative from Arizona's 8th congressional district (2007–2012), Arizona State Senator from the 28th district (2003–2005), Arizona State Representative from the 13th district (2001–2003)[242]
- Chrissy Houlahan, U.S. Representative from Pennsylvania's 6th congressional district (2019–present)[241]
- Conor Lamb, U.S. Representative from Pennsylvania's 17th congressional district (2018–present) and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2022[165]
- Bill Pascrell, U.S. Representative from New Jersey's 9th congressional district (2013–present) , U.S. Representative from New Jersey's 8th congressional district (1997–2013), Mayor of Paterson, New Jersey (1990–1997), and member of the New Jersey General Assembly from New Jersey's 35th legislative district(1988–1997)[243]
- Mary Gay Scanlon, U.S. Representative from Pennsylvania's 5th congressional district (2019–present) and Pennsylvania's 7th congressional district (2018–2019)[241]
- Susan Wild, U.S. Representative from Pennsylvania's 7th congressional district (2019–present) and Pennsylvania's 15th congressional district (2018–2019), solicitor of Allentown (2015–2017)[241]
- Statewide officials
- Phil Murphy, Governor of New Jersey (2018–present), Vice Chair of the National Governors Association (2021–present), United States Ambassador to Germany (2009–2013), and Finance Chair of the Democratic National Committee (2006–2009)[244]
- Ed Rendell, former Governor of Pennsylvania (2003–2011), former Mayor of Philadelphia (1992–2000), and former District Attorney of Philadelphia (1978–1986)[245]
- State legislators
- Amanda Cappelletti, Pennsylvania State Senator from the 17th district (2020–present)[236]
- Malcolm Kenyatta, Pennsylvania State Representative from the 181st district (2019–present), and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2022[246]
- Darisha Parker, Pennsylvania State Representative from the 198th district (2020–present)[236]
- Anthony H. Williams, Pennsylvania State Senator from the 8th district (1999–present), Democratic Whip of the Pennsylvania Senate (2011–present)[236]
- Local officials
- Paige Gebhardt Cognetti, Mayor of Scranton (2020–present)[146]
- Labor unions
- AFL-CIO[247]
- AFSCME – District Council 47[59]
- American Postal Workers Union – Pennsylvania chapter[147]
- Service Employees International Union[242]
- United Food and Commercial Workers Local 1776[148]
- United Steelworkers District 10[148]
- Organizations
- Council for a Livable World[248]
- Data for Progress[150][151]
- Democratic Majority for Israel[249]
- Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee[250]
- End Citizens United[251]
- Giffords[252]
- J Street[253]
- League of Conservation Voters[254]
- Let America Vote[251]
- MarchOn[152]
- National Organization for the Reform of Marijuana Laws[148]
- Pennsylvania Democratic Party[255]
- Planned Parenthood[256]
- Newspapers and other media
- Individuals
- Gisele Barreto Fetterman, Second Lady of Pennsylvania (2019–present) and Fetterman's wife[258]
- Sean McElwee, activist and co-founder of Fetterman polling firm Data for Progress[150][151]
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Mehmet Oz (R) |
John Fetterman (D) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Data for Progress (D)[E] | December 3–5, 2021 | 581 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 44% | 13% |
- Jeff Bartos vs. John Fetterman
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Jeff Bartos (R) |
John Fetterman (D) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Garin-Hart-Yang (D)[H] | May 10–19, 2021 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 36% | 45% | 19% |
Data for Progress (D)[E] | May 7–14, 2021 | 310 (LV) | ± 5.6% | 38% | 48% | 14% |
- Jeff Bartos vs. Conor Lamb
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Jeff Bartos (R) |
Conor Lamb (D) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Data for Progress (D)[E] | May 7–14, 2021 | 341 (LV) | ± 5.3% | 42% | 43% | 15% |
- Sean Parnell vs. John Fetterman
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Sean Parnell (R) |
John Fetterman (D) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Garin-Hart-Yang (D)[H] | May 10–19, 2021 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 42% | 42% | 16% |
Data for Progress (D)[E] | May 7–14, 2021 | 310 (LV) | ± 5.6% | 40% | 48% | 12% |
- Sean Parnell vs. Conor Lamb
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Sean Parnell (R) |
Conor Lamb (D) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Data for Progress (D)[E] | May 7–14, 2021 | 341 (LV) | ± 5.3% | 44% | 42% | 14% |
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Mehmet Oz | ||||
Democratic | John Fetterman | ||||
Libertarian | Erik Gerhardt | ||||
Green | Richard L. Weiss | N/A | |||
Independent | Everett Stern | N/A | |||
Total votes | N/A |
Notes
- ^ The images in this gallery are in the public domain or are otherwise free to use. This gallery should not be construed as a list of major or noteworthy candidates. If a candidate is not included in this gallery, it is only because there are no high-quality, copyright-free photographs of them available on the Internet.
- ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ^ a b c d e f g h Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ Bochetto and Gale with 2%
- ^ Bochetto with 1%, Gale with 0%
- ^ Bochetto, Gale, and "Other" with 1%
- ^ Bochetto with 1%
- ^ Bochetto and Gale with 1%
- ^ Bochetto and Gale with 1%
- ^ Gale with 2%, Bochetto and "Other" (volunteered response) with 1%
- ^ "Someone else" with 5%, Gale with 1%, Bochetto with 0%
- ^ Bochetto with 3%, Gale with 1%
- ^ "Someone else" with 6%, Bochetto with 2%, Gale with 0%
- ^ Bochetto and Gale with ≤1%
- ^ Bochetto with 4%, Gale with 3%
- ^ a b c d Bochetto with 1%
- ^ Bochetto with 2%, Gale with 1%
- ^ Bochetto, Stern, and "Other" (volunteered response) with 1%
- ^ Bochetto, Gale, and Stern with 2%
- ^ "Another Candidate" with 11%, Gale with 1%
- ^ Gale with 4%; Jeffries with 2%; Xu with 1%; Stern with 0%
- ^ Gale with 2%
- ^ "Someone else" with 3%, Gale with 0%
- ^ "Someone else" with 7%, Gale with 3%
- ^ Fetterman was invited to the debate, but declined to attend
- ^ Conor Lamb received the most delegate votes of 169, but failed to reach the self-imposed threshold of a two-thirds majority vote, meaning that no candidate will receive the endorsement of the Pennsylvania Democratic Party.
- ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ^ "Someone else" with 4%; Baumlin and Khalil with 1%
- ^ "Someone else" with 9%; Baumlin and Khalil with 0%
- ^ Khalil with 4%
- ^ Baumlin with 9%; Khalil with 3%
- ^ Houlahan with 8%
- Partisan clients
- ^ a b c d e f g Poll sponsored by Honor Pennsylvania PAC, which supports McCormick.
- ^ Poll sponsored by Oz's campaign.
- ^ Poll sponsored by McCormick's campaign.
- ^ Poll sponsored by Parnell's campaign.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i Poll sponsored by Fetterman's campaign.
- ^ Poll sponsored by pro-Lamb super PAC Penn Progress.
- ^ Poll sponsored by Kenyatta's campaign.
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by Collective PAC.
References
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{{cite web}}
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solidified Lamb's status as the establishment-favored candidate
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{{cite news}}
: CS1 maint: url-status (link) - ^ Terruso, Jessica (February 9, 2022). "Conor Lamb's Senate campaign is getting a super PAC boost — featuring James Carville". Philadelphia Inquirer. Retrieved February 9, 2022.
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- ^ {{cite web|url=https://aflcio.org/speeches/redmond-were-building-pennsylvania-works-all-us%7Ctitle=Redmond: We're Building a Pennsylvania That Works for All of Us|website=AFL-CIO|date=April 2, 2022|access-date=June 10, 2022}
- ^ "Senate Candidates 2022 Endorsements". Council for a Livable World.
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- ^ @dscc (May 17, 2022). "BREAKING NEWS:@JohnFetterman is Pennsylvania's Democratic nominee for Senate! John rolls up his sleeves and gets things done, and will always put Pennsylvania families first" (Tweet). Retrieved May 18, 2022 – via Twitter.
- ^ a b @StopBigMoney (May 26, 2022). "🚨 ENDORSEMENT ALERT 🚨 Sheetz > Wawa; and @StopBigMoney/@LetAmericaVote endorsed @JohnFetterman > whichever MAGA Republican ends up winning the Republican nomination to Senate" (Tweet). Retrieved May 26, 2022 – via Twitter.
- ^ "Giffords Endorses Lt. Governor John Fetterman for United States Senate". Giffords. June 9, 2022. Retrieved June 2, 2022.
- ^ "UNPRECEDENTED SPENDING BY AIPAC, BILLIONAIRE SUPERPACS FAIL IN EFFORTS TO DECIDE ELECTIONS IN PENNSYLVANIA AND OREGON". J Street. May 18, 2022.
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- ^ "PA DEMS STATEMENT ON ONGOING GOP SENATE RECOUNT". May 27, 2022. Retrieved June 10, 2022.
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- ^ "In the Democratic primary, Fetterman for U.S. Senate Endorsement". May 9, 2022.
- ^ "Gisele Barreto Fetterman speaks on behalf of husband after PA primary win". NBC News. May 17, 2022. Retrieved June 6, 2022.
External links
- Official campaign websites