Talk:Opinion polling for the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election

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Interpolation

For Hungary there are less polling organizations, and the result of different statistical insitutes are quite different, therefore the interpolation set is not smoothing the curves enough. The curves go up and down depending on which institute was the last and always following too much the last result. Or ut it simpler, the interpolation is not smoothin strong enough. 93.218.146.171 (talk) 11:14, 5 March 2023 (UTC)[reply]

Polling Graph

Hi all, taking into account the precedent from the last elections, I wanted to offer creating a LOESS graph for this page, but I wanted to confirm this would be fine with the major page editors first. So, let me know if you're in favour or against it. cc @Leo0502 @Brynixlad @Braganza @ItstheFinal. Thanks Quinby (talk) 19:58, 6 March 2023 (UTC)[reply]

You can do it, the template doesnt allow a proper scale where you can see every party Braganza (talk) 20:03, 6 March 2023 (UTC)[reply]

MKKP

@Leo0502: MKKP *is* part of the left-wing opposition Braganza (talk) 21:09, 11 March 2023 (UTC)[reply]

we could reintroduce Opposition column Braganza (talk) 07:32, 12 March 2023 (UTC)[reply]

We can consider that MKKP is left-wing opposition as they're neither in government, neither right-wing. However polls treat "left-wing opposition" as "I want to vote for United for Hungary, but I'm not sure / don't care which party exactly" e.g. https://nezopont.hu/a-fidesz-es-a-baloldal-is-gyengult-nyaron/

BTW Jobbik is center-right and yet is counted as left-wing opposition, so "left-wing" part serves more as a branding. Leo0502 (talk) 11:23, 12 March 2023 (UTC)[reply]

Yeah but MKKP is not non-alligned like MHM (in Budapest they did join and they withdrew candidate in key districts to help EM), they just did not join EM but when somebody says "left-wing opposition" or "opposition alliance" it can include MKKP too Braganza (talk) 12:01, 12 March 2023 (UTC)[reply]

Currently Nézőpont and Publicus have option for "other opposition" or "left-wing opposition" and both count it into EM. This is best seen in Publicus, which publishes the result with EM and with parties starting independently - results for Fidesz, MKKP and MHM don't change a bit. So I stand for counting "left-wing opposition" the same way as the pollsters. If one day poll with "opposition i.e. not Fidesz" or "EM or MKKP" options will be published, we'll re-calculate results for such poll accordingly. Leo0502 (talk) 15:27, 12 March 2023 (UTC)[reply]

thats just an oversimplification of the opposition, it is not like there is this very united Dialogue-to-Jobbik front which is completely separate from MKKP. MKKP just did not join EM, that is all. For the 2022 election we actually made an extra column for Opposition (quote: Jobbik, MSZP-P, DK, LMP, M and MKKP)

there is not much of a difference if you include MKKP either (only ~1%). When you look at the last Medián poll, there are swings up to 2% between united EM and parties split Braganza (talk) 18:04, 12 March 2023 (UTC)[reply]

What is the point of having the "Coalition polling" graph when only a few polls have polled all of the United for Hungary parties together since the previous election? Does United for Hungary even exist nowadays? Vacant0 (talk) 19:46, 12 March 2023 (UTC)[reply]

i would rather support a broad opposition vs. Fidesz vs. MHM graph (similar to 2022 Serbian general election) Braganza (talk) 20:15, 12 March 2023 (UTC)[reply]

AFAIK they didn't officially dissolve, but you have a point. There are too few polls with EM for the graph. Leo0502 (talk) 23:55, 12 March 2023 (UTC)[reply]

maybe we should move them to like a scenario section alongside polls with "other opposition" in some sort Braganza (talk) 06:21, 13 March 2023 (UTC)[reply]

The polls that polled United for Hungary parties together could be moved to a scenario section. That would be good. Vacant0 (talk) 10:18, 13 March 2023 (UTC)[reply]

The Jobbik is left from the United for Hungary opposition alliance

The Jobbik is not a member of the United for Hungary opposition alliance, because Márton Gyöngyösi and Ágnes Kunhalmi announced, that the Jobbik is no longer a member of the alliance. So, the Jobbik is left from the alliance, and the Jobbik is going for indepedently to the future elections, like the 2024 European Parliamentary election, and the 2024 local elections in Hungary. If the election poll is showing the Jobbik, like the Our Homeland Movement, and the MKKP, which is indepedent from the alliance, like the United for Hungary, and the Fidesz-KDNP Party Alliance. KovZXad1970 (talk) 15:33, 13 June 2023 (UTC)[reply]

What kind of polling?

One of the most important information is not described in the page. What kind of polling is it? What kind of numbers do you take? In Hungary they distinguish 3 kinds of statistics.

1) Support of the parties as a percentage of all voters. Here, there is usually around 33% of voters, who do not chose a party, do not give an answer.

2) Support of the parties amongst does, who chose a party.

3) And support of the parties among those, who say they will vote for sure.

The numbers are really very different according to which statistics you take. Which one is taken?

If I compare your numbers to this article, it seams, you take statistics 2. That is support of parties among those, who chose a party. This is OK, but not described.

2003:C1:B729:A100:1BF:EBC0:CE51:8A09 (talk) 07:24, 7 November 2023 (UTC)[reply]

Votes for "united opposition"

So far, votes for the "united opposition" have been distributed among parties from United for Hungary alliance. As this solution is being reverted for latest Publicius poll, maybe we should reconsider and come up with different solution how to handle such votes. cc: @Victor Knox

For context, "left-wing opposition" and "united opposition" option in polls was explained in MKKP section. Leo0502 (talk) 21:23, 14 January 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Graphical summary by pollster bias

Would it be possible to make a separate graph based on the party affiliation of the pollsters? Or a separate graphical summary about pollsters without strong ties to Fidesz?

Lehetne csinálni olyan diagrammot is, ami csak a FIDESZ-hez nem kötődő közvéleménykutatókat mutatja? Megtennék? 147.161.250.104 (talk) 10:56, 28 November 2024 (UTC)[reply]