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File:Opinion polling for the 2024 Icelandic parliamentary election.svg

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Summary

Description
English: Opinion polling for the 2024 Icelandic parliamentary election using local regressions (LOESS)
Code template: https://gitlab.com/gbuvn1/opinion-polling-graph
ggplot.R 
Sys.setlocale("LC_TIME", "English")
library(ggplot2)
library(anytime)
library(tidyverse)
library(svglite)
library(Rcpp)

polls <- read.table("CAT.csv", header=T, sep=",", fileEncoding="UTF-8", stringsAsFactor=F)
polls$polldate <- as.Date(anydate(polls$polldate))

spansize <- 0.185           # general smoothing parameter for trend line
nnum <- 1000                 # number of points used for trendline (resolution)
startdate <- '2021-09-25'   # date of previous election
enddate <- '2024-11-30'     # (latest) date of next election

# retrieve party names from CSV
party1 <- colnames(polls)[2]
party2 <- colnames(polls)[3]
party3 <- colnames(polls)[4]
party4 <- colnames(polls)[5]
party5 <- colnames(polls)[6]
party6 <- colnames(polls)[7]
party7 <- colnames(polls)[8]
party8 <- colnames(polls)[9]
party9 <- colnames(polls)[10]
party10 <- colnames(polls)[11]
party11 <- colnames(polls)[12]

# define party colors (taken from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Germany_political_party_colour_templates)
col1 <- '#00ADEF'
col2 <- '#87FF91'
col3 <- '#00B878'
col4 <- '#ED1400'
col5 <- '#FFCA3E'
col6 <- '#976dff'
col7 <- '#ff7d14'
col8 <- '#141f6e'
col9 <- '#EF4839'
col10 <- '#04437F'
col11 <- '#322757'

transp <-'55'       # transparency level of points

graph <- ggplot(polls)+
  geom_vline(xintercept = as.Date(startdate), color='#aaaaaabb')+       # vertical line (last election)
  geom_vline(xintercept = as.Date(enddate), color='#aaaaaabb')+         # vertical line (next election)
  geom_segment(aes(x=as.Date(startdate), xend=as.Date(enddate), y=5, yend=5), color='#666666bb', linetype='dashed')+      # horizontal line (election threshold 5%)
  # add poll points
  geom_point(aes_string(x='polldate',y=party1),size=ifelse(polls$polldate==startdate | polls$polldate==enddate,3,1.5),shape=ifelse(polls$polldate==startdate | polls$polldate==enddate,23,21),color=paste0(col1,transp),fill=paste0(col1,transp))+
  geom_point(aes_string(x='polldate',y=party2),size=ifelse(polls$polldate==startdate | polls$polldate==enddate,3,1.5),shape=ifelse(polls$polldate==startdate | polls$polldate==enddate,23,21),color=paste0(col2,transp),fill=paste0(col2,transp))+
  geom_point(aes_string(x='polldate',y=party3),size=ifelse(polls$polldate==startdate | polls$polldate==enddate,3,1.5),shape=ifelse(polls$polldate==startdate | polls$polldate==enddate,23,21),color=paste0(col3,transp),fill=paste0(col3,transp))+
  geom_point(aes_string(x='polldate',y=party4),size=ifelse(polls$polldate==startdate | polls$polldate==enddate,3,1.5),shape=ifelse(polls$polldate==startdate | polls$polldate==enddate,23,21),color=paste0(col4,transp),fill=paste0(col4,transp))+
  geom_point(aes_string(x='polldate',y=party5),size=ifelse(polls$polldate==startdate | polls$polldate==enddate,3,1.5),shape=ifelse(polls$polldate==startdate | polls$polldate==enddate,23,21),color=paste0(col5,transp),fill=paste0(col5,transp))+
  geom_point(aes_string(x='polldate',y=party6),size=ifelse(polls$polldate==startdate | polls$polldate==enddate,3,1.5),shape=ifelse(polls$polldate==startdate | polls$polldate==enddate,23,21),color=paste0(col6,transp),fill=paste0(col6,transp))+
  geom_point(aes_string(x='polldate',y=party7),size=ifelse(polls$polldate==startdate | polls$polldate==enddate,3,1.5),shape=ifelse(polls$polldate==startdate | polls$polldate==enddate,23,21),color=paste0(col7,transp),fill=paste0(col7,transp))+
  geom_point(aes_string(x='polldate',y=party8),size=ifelse(polls$polldate==startdate | polls$polldate==enddate,3,1.5),shape=ifelse(polls$polldate==startdate | polls$polldate==enddate,23,21),color=paste0(col8,transp),fill=paste0(col8,transp))+
  geom_point(aes_string(x='polldate',y=party9),size=ifelse(polls$polldate==startdate | polls$polldate==enddate,3,1.5),shape=ifelse(polls$polldate==startdate | polls$polldate==enddate,23,21),color=paste0(col9,transp),fill=paste0(col9,transp))+
  geom_point(aes_string(x='polldate',y=party10),size=ifelse(polls$polldate==startdate | polls$polldate==enddate,3,1.5),shape=ifelse(polls$polldate==startdate | polls$polldate==enddate,23,21),color=paste0(col10,transp),fill=paste0(col10,transp))+
  geom_point(aes_string(x='polldate',y=party11),size=ifelse(polls$polldate==startdate | polls$polldate==enddate,3,1.5),shape=ifelse(polls$polldate==startdate | polls$polldate==enddate,23,21),color=paste0(col11,transp),fill=paste0(col11,transp))+
  # add trend lines
  # the "span" (smoothing parameter) should be manually changed for individual parties that have less polling data
  geom_smooth(aes_string(x='polldate',y=party1,color=shQuote('col1')),method="loess",span=spansize,n=nnum,se=FALSE)+
  geom_smooth(aes_string(x='polldate',y=party2,color=shQuote('col2')),method="loess",span=spansize,n=nnum,se=FALSE)+
  geom_smooth(aes_string(x='polldate',y=party3,color=shQuote('col3')),method="loess",span=spansize,n=nnum,se=FALSE)+
  geom_smooth(aes_string(x='polldate',y=party4,color=shQuote('col4')),method="loess",span=spansize,n=nnum,se=FALSE)+
  geom_smooth(aes_string(x='polldate',y=party5,color=shQuote('col5')),method="loess",span=spansize,n=nnum,se=FALSE)+
  geom_smooth(aes_string(x='polldate',y=party6,color=shQuote('col6')),method="loess",span=spansize,n=nnum,se=FALSE)+
  geom_smooth(aes_string(x='polldate',y=party7,color=shQuote('col7')),method="loess",span=spansize,n=nnum,se=FALSE)+
  geom_smooth(aes_string(x='polldate',y=party8,color=shQuote('col8')),method="loess",span=spansize,n=nnum,se=FALSE)+
  geom_smooth(aes_string(x='polldate',y=party9,color=shQuote('col9')),method="loess",span=spansize,n=nnum,se=FALSE)+
  geom_smooth(aes_string(x='polldate',y=party10,color=shQuote('col10')),method="loess",span=1.75,n=nnum,se=FALSE)+
  geom_smooth(aes_string(x='polldate',y=party11,color=shQuote('col11')),method="loess",span=1.75,n=nnum,se=FALSE)+
  scale_y_continuous(labels = function(x) paste0(x, "%"),limits=c(0,31))+    # add %, manual limits on y-axis
  scale_x_date(limits = as.Date(c(startdate,enddate)), date_minor_breaks = "1 months", date_breaks = "3 months", date_labels = "%b %Y")+    # grid: 1 month, labels: 3 months
  labs(x = "", y = "")+
  scale_color_manual(name="",
                     breaks = c('col1','col2','col3','col4','col5','col6','col7','col8','col9','col10','col11'),
                     labels = c(party1,party2,party3,party4,party5,party6,party7,party8,party9,party10,party11),
                     values = c('col1'=col1,'col2'=col2,'col3'=col3,'col4'=col4,'col5'=col5,'col6'=col6,'col7'=col7,'col8'=col8,'col9'=col9,'col10'=col10,'col11'=col11))+
  # legend appearance
  theme(
    axis.text.x = element_text(size = 11),
    axis.text.y = element_text(size = 12),
    axis.title.y = element_text(size = 16),
    legend.position="right",
    legend.key.width=unit(24, "pt"),
    legend.key.height=unit(24, "pt"),
    legend.text = element_text(size=16, margin = margin(b = 5, t = 5, unit = "pt")))

graph + theme()

ggsave(file="polls.svg", plot=graph, width=18, height=8)

# workaround since svglite doesn't properly work in Wikipedia
aaa=readLines("polls.svg",-1)
bbb <- gsub(".svglite ", "", aaa)
writeLines(bbb,"polls.svg")
CAT.csv 
polldate,D,B,V,S,F,P,C,M,J,L,Y
2024-11-30,19.36,7.80,2.34,20.75,13.78,3.02,15.82,12.10,3.96,1.04,0.02
2024-11-29,18.4,6.8,3.1,20.0,12.6,4.1,17.6,11.2,4.8,1.4,0.0
2024-11-28,14.7,6.4,3.4,21.8,11.2,5.5,17.6,12.0,5.8,1.2,0.4
2024-11-28,14.5,7.8,3.7,20.4,10.8,5.4,19.2,11.6,5,1.1,0.5
2024-11-22,11.5,4.4,3,18.3,12.5,6.7,22,13.5,6.4,1,0.7
2024-11-21,16,6.2,3.3,20.2,13.1,4.1,18.1,12.2,5.1,,
2024-11-20,14.6,5.9,3.1,22.7,8.8,4.3,20.9,12.6,5.0,1.6,0.6
2024-11-14,12,5.6,2.4,22.4,10.2,3.4,21.5,15.5,5.4,1,0.6
2024-11-14,16.4,6,4.1,20.8,10.2,5.5,15.5,14.3,6.2,1,0.1
2024-11-13,13.4,7.3,3.4,20.1,9.2,5.1,19.9,12.6,6.3,2.1,0.6
2024-11-07,12.3,5.8,2.6,21.6,11.5,5.7,17.1,15.1,6.7,1.4,0.2
2024-11-06,13.3,7.5,3.2,20.9,8.9,4.9,19.4,14.9,4.5,1.7,0.8
2024-10-31,17.3,6.5,4.1,23.8,7.8,5.4,13.5,16.5,4.5,0.6,0
2024-10-31,14.1,5.8,2.6,22.3,11.2,4.9,18.5,14.4,4.0,1.5,0.5
2024-10-28,13.9,6.9,3.8,22.2,9.3,4.5,16.2,15.9,4.0,1.6,0.9
2024-10-24,13.3,5.8,2.4,24.2,11.4,5.8,15.0,16.1,4.3,1.1,0.4
2024-10-18,15.6,6.2,2.2,24.8,10.8,6.1,14.1,15.1,4.2,,
2024-10-18,14.1,8,5.1,21.9,7.3,5.2,13.4,17.7,5.2,2.1,
2024-10-03,12,5,3,26,11,9,11,18,4,,
2024-09-30,14.1,6.2,4.3,26.2,7.5,7.6,10.3,18.7,5.2,,
2024-09-24,13.4,7.6,3.7,25,8.8,8.5,11.3,17.0,4.7,,
2024-08-29,17.1,7.0,3.4,26.4,6.7,7.8,10.1,16.0,5.7,,
2024-08-27,13.9,9.0,4.6,25.5,7.1,8.6,10.7,15.3,5.2,,
2024-07-30,17.2,7.2,3.5,27.6,8.6,7.8,8.8,14.6,4.7,,
2024-06-30,18.5,6.6,4.0,26.9,7.7,8.8,9.4,14.5,3.5,,
2024-06-20,14.7,10.2,5.0,27.1,5.0,9.3,10.1,12.7,5.9,,
2024-06-02,18.0,9.1,3.3,29.9,6.1,8.8,7.7,13.5,3.7,,
2024-05-23,17.5,10.4,5.1,27.3,5.6,8.4,9.3,12.6,3.9,,
2024-04-30,19.0,10.0,4.3,25.4,7.3,8.1,7.9,13.4,4.4,,
2024-04-28,18.0,8.8,4.4,29.7,7.2,8.2,7.5,12.8,3.4,,
2024-04-16,17.2,10.7,5.0,27.3,5.3,8.5,10.2,11.6,4.1,,
2024-04-02,18.2,7.3,5.6,30.9,6.2,7.8,7.1,12.9,3.9,,
2024-03-12,18.0,9.4,6.7,25.6,5.7,9.5,9.7,11.9,3.5,,
2024-02-29,19.9,8.8,4.7,28.2,6.8,8.0,7.5,12.8,3.5,,
2024-02-27,18.4,8.5,5.9,27.2,6.4,9.0,9.2,11.1,4.3,,
2024-01-31,18.2,8.4,5.5,30.6,7.9,8.1,7.0,10.9,3.4,,
2024-01-15,16.6,10.3,5.7,25.7,6.5,7.6,11.7,11.8,4.1,,
2024-01-01,18.1,9.4,6.0,28.4,6.8,9.1,8.8,9.7,3.6,,
2023-12-27,17.3,9.9,5.6,26.3,6.8,8.1,12.2,9.4,4.3,,
2023-11-30,19.8,8.6,5.1,28.1,6.9,9.3,7.9,9.4,4.2,,
2023-11-26,17.9,10.4,6.1,26.0,6.4,10.0,10.3,8.4,4.4,,
2023-10-31,20.5,7.4,6.0,29.1,6.5,10.2,7.5,8.6,4.1,,
2023-10-24,17.7,9.8,5.9,27.8,6.1,10.8,9.3,8.2,4.3,,
2023-10-03,20.4,8.1,5.7,30.1,5.7,9.6,7.9,8.6,3.9,,
2023-09-29,19.6,8.8,6.5,24.4,6.5,10.8,11.6,7.0,4.8,,
2023-08-31,21.1,7.5,5.9,28.5,6.3,10.3,7.2,8.7,4.4,,
2023-08-22,17.6,9.2,6.4,26.1,5.9,13.1,9.5,7.9,4.2,,
2023-07-30,21.0,8.9,6.1,28.6,5.7,10.5,7.0,8.5,3.6,,
2023-07-24,19.3,9.6,8.0,25.3,6.0,11.0,10.4,5.9,4.5,,
2023-07-22,16.1,7.1,7.3,27.4,8.5,14.5,8.9,7.2,2.9,,
2023-07-02,20.8,8.7,6.2,28.4,5.7,9.7,8.1,7.8,4.6,,
2023-06-22,18.5,8.8,7.0,27.2,6.6,11.3,9.7,6.3,4.7,,
2023-05-31,20.8,10.2,5.7,28.4,5.5,10.1,7.6,6.9,4.9,,
2023-05-16,19.2,10.0,6.1,27.3,5.6,11.0,9.1,6.4,5.2,,
2023-05-01,21.9,9.6,6.6,27.8,6.0,10.0,7.4,6.2,4.3,,
2023-04-19,18.7,10.2,8.2,25.7,4.4,11.4,10.6,6.0,4.9,,
2023-04-04,22.3,9.9,7.1,25.1,5.6,9.4,9.1,6.3,5.1,,
2023-03-20,20.2,13.2,6.0,24.4,5.2,10.2,9.1,5.7,6.0,,
2023-02-28,22.5,10.8,6.8,24.0,5.6,12.1,7.7,5.3,5.0,,
2023-02-13,20.1,12.3,6.7,23.3,5.9,12.7,8.2,5.8,5.0,,
2023-02-06,23.2,11.8,5.9,22.1,9.5,12.5,6.9,4.1,4.1,,
2023-01-18,21.8,12.1,8.3,23.6,5.1,10.4,9.1,5.9,3.6,,
2023-01-31,23.5,11.3,6.8,25.3,5.5,10.4,7.3,5.5,4.4,,
2023-01-02,23.8,12.1,6.8,23.4,6.2,11.3,6.9,4.6,4.6,,
2022-12-30,23.2,10.8,6.7,20.5,9.7,14.3,6.2,4.5,4.0,,
2022-12-28,20.0,12.2,7.8,20.1,7.0,12.5,7.5,6.7,6.1,,
2022-11-30,24.1,12.2,7.5,21.1,4.5,12.2,7.4,5.6,5.2,,
2022-11-22,21.8,14.8,7.1,19.0,5.0,13.4,9.0,4.9,5.0,,
2022-11-17,21.1,14.6,8.0,19.1,6.4,11.8,10.6,4.2,4.2,,
2022-10-31,24.4,13.8,8.4,16.6,5.3,12.9,8.4,5.0,5.0,,
2022-10-17,22.8,15.0,7.7,14.4,4.6,14.3,9.5,5.0,6.5,,
2022-10-02,24.1,13.4,8.2,16.3,5.1,13.6,8.5,5.4,5.1,,
2022-09-27,20.8,15.6,8.7,15.2,5.0,12.3,10.4,5.3,6.8,,
2022-08-31,21.8,15.6,8.4,15.5,5.6,14.8,8.4,4.6,5.1,,
2022-08-17,20.9,19.6,7.5,12.9,4.6,13.9,8.9,4.5,7.3,,
2022-08-01,22.1,15.4,8.6,13.7,6.6,15.0,8.6,4.4,5.3,,
2022-07-25,24.4,18.0,7.7,10.9,6.9,12.7,8.3,6.0,5.1,,
2022-06-30,22.8,17.5,7.2,13.7,7.0,16.1,6.7,4.6,4.1,,
2022-06-23,19.3,18.3,8.5,13.4,6.3,14.6,8.8,4.7,6.1,,
2022-06-13,18.5,17.3,9.0,13.5,5.6,17.5,7.8,4.2,6.3,,
2022-05-31,20.1,17.5,8.1,14.1,6.4,14.7,9.5,4.3,5.0,,
2022-04-26,17.9,12.4,9.6,16.8,8.0,16.2,9.6,4.1,5.4,,
2022-04-30,19.8,15.6,10.1,13.7,7.7,14.5,9.6,4.1,4.6,,
2022-04-12,22.4,15.5,8.8,13.0,7.7,13.2,10.5,4.2,4.6,,
2022-03-31,22.7,18.0,11.4,11.2,8.2,11.9,9.1,3.7,3.6,,
2022-02-28,21.9,18.1,10.5,11.1,7.5,13.2,9.7,3.9,3.9,,
2022-02-16,21.9,16.9,12.9,13.4,7.6,10.3,9.7,3.9,3.5,,
2022-01-31,22.4,17.0,10.7,10.8,8.8,12.5,9.4,3.7,4.3,,
2022-01-19,20.1,17.8,11.2,12.3,8.5,13.5,9.2,3.7,3.7,,
2021-12-30,23.3,17.7,10.6,10.5,8.6,12.5,8.7,3.4,4.5,,
2021-11-30,22.7,17.0,13.0,10.7,8.0,11.8,8.4,3.8,4.4,,
2021-10-31,22.8,17.2,13.4,9.8,7.9,11.0,8.9,4.3,4.6,,
2021-10-18,21.1,17.9,12.1,10.1,7.8,11.7,10.0,3.2,5.5,,
2021-09-25,24.39,17.27,12.57,9.93,8.85,8.63,8.33,5.45,4.10,,
Date
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Author PLATEL

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Opinion polling for the 2024 Icelandic parliamentary election using local regressions (LOESS)

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21 October 2024

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