File:2nd Lancet Iraqi death count Figure 4.gif

Figure 4 from Gilbert Burnham, Riyadh Lafta, Shannon Doocy, and Les Roberts (2006) "Mortality after the 2003 invasion of Iraq: a cross-sectional cluster sample survey" The Lancet (published online October 11, 2006) DOI 10.1016/S0140-6736(06)69491-9

Copyright: (c) 2006, The Lancet

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== Graph explanation ==

Figure 4 from the October 2006 Lancet survey of Iraq War mortality, showing a comparison of 3 mortality estimates. Two letters subsequently published in the Lancet journal discuss this graph [1] [2], and the authors of the study replied [3]. The authors wrote: "Josh Dougherty and Debarati Guha-Sapir and colleagues all point out that figure 4 of our report mixes rates and counts, creating a confusing image. We find this criticism valid and accept this as an error on our part. Moreover, Dougherty rightly points out that the data in the US Department of Defense source were casualties, not deaths alone."

The 2006 Lancet study household survey estimate uses the mortality rate scale to the right. The Iraq Body Count project and the Department of Defense (DoD) estimate use the total-deaths scale to the left.

The purpose of the graph according to the Lancet article is to show that these 3 mortality estimates all indicate an increasing rate of deaths over time. The increasing rate is shown by the increasing steepness in the slopes of all 3 graph lines.

DoD estimates are from here:

• http://www.defenselink.mil/home/features/Iraq_Reports/Index.html

The last DoD report before the October 2006 Lancet study came out was the August 2006 DoD report. [4]

The 3 studies come up with different casualty and death totals due to differing methodologies for estimating deaths.

For more info, and for explanations of various mortality methodologies and their wide variation in estimates of deaths, see Casualties of the conflict in Iraq since 2003.