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Hurricane John (2024)

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Hurricane John
John at peak intensity while it approached the coast of Mexico early on September 24
Meteorological history
FormedSeptember 22, 2024
DissipatedSeptember 27, 2024
Category 3 major hurricane
1-minute sustained (SSHWS/NWS)
Highest winds120 mph (195 km/h)
Lowest pressure959 mbar (hPa); 28.32 inHg
Overall effects
Fatalities29
Damage$1 billion (2024 USD)
Areas affectedSouthwestern Mexico (especially Oaxaca and Guerrero)
Part of the 2024 Pacific hurricane season

Hurricane John was a powerful tropical cyclone that caused deadly flooding across southern Mexico for several days in September 2024. The eleventh named storm, fourth hurricane, and second major hurricane of the 2024 Pacific hurricane season, John originated from a low-pressure area offshore Southern Mexico. This low developed into Tropical Depression Ten‑E on the afternoon of September 22, strengthening into Tropical Storm John the following morning. Undergoing rapid intensification, John strengthened from a moderate tropical storm into a Category 3 hurricane on September 24. It was at that intensity that John made landfall in Marquelia, Guerrero, later that day. Once inland, John rapidly weakened, dissipating over Mexico later that day. However, the mid-level remnants of John moved back over the ocean, where favorable conditions enabled John to redevelop. On September 27, after again becoming a minimal hurricane, Tropical Storm John made its second landfall, this time near Tizupan, Michoacán. Hours later, it dissipated for a final time over the coastal mountains.

John resulted in strong winds, significant flooding, and numerous mudslides across much of coastal southwestern Mexico. A total of 950 mm (37 in) of rain fell across parts of Guerrero, with similarly extreme rainfall in neighboring Oaxaca and Michoacán. More than 98,000 people lost power in Oaxaca. As of September 28, twenty-nine deaths have been reported in association with John, and the storm is estimated to have caused US$1 billion in damage to southern Mexico.

Meteorological history

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Map plotting the storm's track and intensity, according to the Saffir–Simpson scale
Map key
Saffir–Simpson scale
  Tropical depression (≤38 mph, ≤62 km/h)
  Tropical storm (39–73 mph, 63–118 km/h)
  Category 1 (74–95 mph, 119–153 km/h)
  Category 2 (96–110 mph, 154–177 km/h)
  Category 3 (111–129 mph, 178–208 km/h)
  Category 4 (130–156 mph, 209–251 km/h)
  Category 5 (≥157 mph, ≥252 km/h)
  Unknown
Storm type
triangle Extratropical cyclone, remnant low, tropical disturbance, or monsoon depression

On September 21, an area of low pressure producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms formed off the coast of southern Mexico.[1] The system became better organized the following day and attained a closed surface circulation, resulting in the formation of Tropical Depression Ten‑E on the afternoon of September 22, about 175 mi (280 km) south of Punta Maldonado, Guerrero.[2] The system continued to develop that night, and strengthened into Tropical Storm John at 06:00 UTC the following morning.[3] While moving slowly to the north-northeast on September 23, caught in the southwesterly flow associated with the monsoon trough near Central America,[4] John commenced to rapidly intensify. It became a Category 1 hurricane at 17:45 UTC that same day,[5] and then, just nine hours later, reached Category 3 major hurricane intensity with sustained winds of 120 mph (195 km/h).[6] It was at that intensity that John made landfall in Marquelia, Guerrero, about 25 mi (40 km) northwest of Punta Maldonado, at 03:20 UTC on September 24.[7] John rapidly weakened inland, with its winds falling to tropical storm strength about 12 hours later.[8] By 18:00 UTC on September 24, John dissipated over the rugged terrain of southern Mexico.[9]

Hurricane Helene and Tropical Storm John both impacting Mexico on September 25

An elongated trough developed in association with John's remnants as the cyclone dissipated.[9] The trough produced a large area of shower and thunderstorm activity, and began showing signs of organization on September 25.[10] Ship observations indicated significant pressure falls within the system, and by 15:00 UTC, John reformed into a tropical storm.[11][12] John moved slowly to the north-northwest after it reformed, and within favorable environmental conditions for strengthening, the storm steadily re-intensified.[13] Continuing its slow motion very close to the southwestern coast of Mexico, John developed a small, closed eye, and re-intensified to a minimal hurricane at 12:00 UTC on September 26.[14][15] John continued to move very slowly near the coast, where its proximity to the rugged terrain of Mexico halted intensification; the cyclone weakened to a tropical storm at 3:00 UTC the following day.[16] After hugging the coast for nearly 36 hours and continuing to weaken, John finally made landfall on southwestern Mexico for the second time at 18:00 UTC on September 27.[17] John's surface center dissipated shortly thereafter, and the United States-based National Hurricane Center issued its final advisory on the storm three hours later.[18]

Preparations

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Upon the formation of John as a tropical cyclone on the afternoon of September 22, a Tropical Storm Watch was issued from Punta Maldonado to Salina Cruz, Oaxaca.[19] At 09:00 UTC the following day, this was changed to a Tropical Storm Warning from Punta Maldonado to Huatulco, with a Tropical Storm Watch extending to Salina Cruz. A Hurricane Watch was declared within the Tropical Storm Warning area.[20] The Hurricane Watch was upgraded to a Hurricane Warning a few hours later.[21] A red emergency alert was issued for Guerrero and Oaxaca.[22] John threatened parts of Mexico still recovering from Hurricane Otis the previous year, which underwent a similar rapid intensification phase. Tourists in Puerto Escondido, Oaxaca, were expected to be evacuated by the Secretariat of Civil Protection (SSPC).[23] Businesses across the city were closed.[24] The Puerto Escondido International Airport also closed for the duration of the storm.[25] More than 80 emergency shelters were prepared and 3,000 people were evacuated.[24] The Federal Electricity Commission (CFE) deployed over 1,400 electricians and several cranes and emergency power plants to respond to power outages in affected regions.[26] Schools were closed in Guerrero and Oaxaca.[22]

Impact

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Costliest Pacific hurricanes
Rank Cyclone Season Damage Ref
1 Otis 2023 $12–16 billion [27]
2 Manuel 2013 $4.2 billion [28]
3 Iniki 1992 $3.1 billion [29]
4 Odile 2014 $1.25 billion [30]
5 Agatha 2010 $1.1 billion [31]
6 John 2024 $1 billion [32]
7 Hilary 2023 $915 million [33]
8 Willa 2018 $825 million [34]
9 Madeline 1998 $750 million [35]
10 Rosa 1994 $700 million [36]

Over 250 mm (10 in) of rain fell across parts of Guerrero and Oaxaca within the first few hours after John's landfall.[37] Over 500 mm (20 in) of rain fell in Acapulco.[38] In total, John dropped 1,442 mm (56.8 in) of rain in Guerrero, five times the amount that fell during Otis's passage the previous year; 19 neighborhoods were left completely underwater, and over 2,000 homes were flooded.[39][40] Some local regions along John's path received 80% of their typical yearly rainfall from the storm.[41][42] Torrential rains also fell across the neighboring states of Chiapas, Veracruz, Michoacán and Puebla.[43] The amount of rain dropped by John was considered historic, bringing 214% more water than Hurricane Pauline, which devastated southern Mexico in 1997.[44]

At least 29 people died in the storm: 23 in Guerrero, 5 in Oaxaca, and 1 in Michoacán.[45][46] Governor of Guerrero Evelyn Salgado reported two deaths caused by a landslide in the municipality of Tlacoachistlahuaca.[47] Additionally, a 70-year-old woman was killed in Malinaltepec when a landslide struck her house.[48] Areas along the southwestern Mexican coast experienced mudslides while tin roofs were blown off several houses.[49] At least 80 landslides occurred in Oaxaca, cutting off roads and communities in the state.[50] 13 restaurants collapsed in Acapulco.[45] The small village of El Espinalillo in southern Guerrero was completely cut off from electricity, potable water and communications outside the town.[41] The Mexican federal government's National Civil Protection Coordination rescued 5,120 people from flooded areas in Acapulco.[44]

According to insurance company Gallagher Re, total losses are estimated to be US$1 billion as of October 2024.[32] Following the hurricane, the Mexican Navy activated Plan DN-III-E, a disaster relief and rescue plan, with 25,000 military units deployed to assist residents affected by John.[39] At least 18,728 members of an international relief task force were sent to assist affected residents by the National Civil Protection Coordination. In the Costa Chica and Costa Grande regions, 5,000 people were placed in temporary storm shelters.[44] In Oaxaca, where over 98,000 people lost power, 18,000 armed services members and government workers were deployed to assist in emergency response operations.[37] The World Central Kitchen distributed over 878,000 meals to those impacted by the hurricane.[51] The Mexican federal government announced it would invest MXN$6.1 billion (US$305.9 million)[a] into caring for the 154,133 homes surveyed following the storm's passage.[52]

See also

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Notes

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  1. ^ Currency value calculated using exchangerates.org, based off the exchange rate for October 27, 2024

References

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  1. ^ Reinhart, Brad (September 21, 2024). Tropical Weather Outlook (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved September 22, 2024.
  2. ^ Reinhart, Brad (September 22, 2024). Tropical Depression Ten-E Advisory Number 1 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved September 22, 2024.
  3. ^ Blake, Eric (September 23, 2024). Tropical Storm John Intermediate Advisory Number 2A (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved September 23, 2024.
  4. ^ Blake, Eric (September 23, 2024). Tropical Storm John Advisory Number 3 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved September 23, 2024.
  5. ^ Brown, Daniel (September 23, 2024). Hurricane John Tropical Cyclone Update (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved September 23, 2024.
  6. ^ Kelly, Larry (September 23, 2024). Hurricane John Discussion Number 7 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved September 23, 2024.
  7. ^ Papin, Philippe (September 23, 2024). Hurricane John Update (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved September 23, 2024.
  8. ^ Cangialosi, John (September 24, 2024). Tropical Storm John Discussion Number 9 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved September 24, 2024.
  9. ^ a b John Canigalosi; Lisa Bucci (September 24, 2024). Remnants of John Discussion Number 10 (Report). Miami, Florida, United States: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved September 25, 2024.
  10. ^ Philippe Papin (September 24, 2024). Tropical Weather Outlook 1100 PM PDT Tue Sep 24 2024 (Report). Miami, Florida, United States: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved September 25, 2024.
  11. ^ Philippe Papin; Jack Beven (September 25, 2024). Special Tropical Weather Outlook 310 AM PDT Wed Sep 25 2024 (Report). Miami, Florida, United States: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved September 25, 2024.
  12. ^ Lisa Bucci; Robert Zelinsky (September 25, 2024). Tropical Storm John Discussion Number 11 (Report). Miami, Florida, United States: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved September 25, 2024.
  13. ^ Lisa Bucci; Robert Zelinsky (September 25, 2024). Tropical Storm John Discussion Number 12 (Report). Miami, Florida, United States: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved September 28, 2024.
  14. ^ Dave Roberts (September 26, 2024). Tropical Storm John Discussion Number 14 (Report). Miami, Florida, United States: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved September 28, 2024.
  15. ^ Larry Kelly (September 26, 2024). Hurricane John Intermediate Advisory Number 14A (Report). Miami, Florida, United States: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved September 28, 2024.
  16. ^ Andrew Hagen (September 26, 2024). Tropical Storm John Discussion Number 17 (Report). Miami, Florida, United States: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved September 28, 2024.
  17. ^ Larry Kelly (September 27, 2024). Tropical Storm John Intermediate Advisory Number 19A (Report). Miami, Florida, United States: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved September 28, 2024.
  18. ^ Larry Kelly (September 27, 2024). Remnants of John Discussion Number 20 (Report). Miami, Florida, United States: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved September 28, 2024.
  19. ^ Brad Reinhart (September 22, 2024). Tropical Depression Ten-E Advisory Number 1 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved September 23, 2024.
  20. ^ Eric Blake (September 23, 2024). Tropical Storm John Advisory Number 3 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved September 23, 2024.
  21. ^ Andrew Hagen (September 23, 2024). Tropical Storm John Intermediate Advisory Number 3A (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved September 23, 2024.
  22. ^ a b Fredy Garcia (September 23, 2024). "Mexico issues red alert as Hurricane John barrels toward southern coast". Thomson Reuters. Retrieved September 24, 2024.
  23. ^ "John rapidly strengthens into a hurricane off southern Mexico's Pacific coast". The Associated Press. The Hill. September 23, 2024. Retrieved September 23, 2024.
  24. ^ a b Monica Garrett; Chris Lau; Gene Norman (September 24, 2024). "Tropical Storm John triggers warnings of life-threatening floods after slamming into Mexico". Cable News Network. Retrieved September 24, 2024.
  25. ^ Daniel Rook (September 24, 2024). "Tropical Storm John hits Mexico's Pacific coast". Agence France-Presse. Yahoo News. Retrieved September 24, 2024.
  26. ^ Austyn Gaffney; Fredy Garcia; Emiliano Rodríguez Mega (September 23, 2024). "Hurricane John Threatens Mexico's Pacific Coast". The New York Times. Retrieved September 24, 2024.
  27. ^ Reinhart, Brad; Reinhart, Amanda (March 7, 2024). "Hurricane Otis – Tropical Cyclone Report (EP182023)" (PDF). National Hurricane Center. University Park, Florida, United States: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. pp. 1–39. Archived (PDF) from the original on March 7, 2024. Retrieved March 7, 2024.
  28. ^ Jakubowski, Steve; Krovvidi, Adityam; Podlaha, Adam; Bowen, Steve. "September 2013 Global Catasrophe Recap" (PDF). Aon Benfield. Archived (PDF) from the original on March 3, 2016. Retrieved October 25, 2013.
  29. ^ Costliest U.S. Tropical Cyclones Tables Update (PDF) (Report). National Hurricane Center. January 12, 2018. Archived (PDF) from the original on January 27, 2018. Retrieved January 12, 2018.
  30. ^ Albarrán, Elizabeth (December 10, 2014). "Aseguradores pagaron 16,600 mdp por daños del huracán Odile" [Insurers Paid 16,600 MDP for Hurricane Odile Damages]. El Economista (in Spanish). Archived from the original on October 21, 2018. Retrieved February 28, 2015.
  31. ^ Beven, Jack (January 10, 2011). Tropical Storm Agatha (PDF) (Report). Tropical Cyclone Report. National Hurricane Center. Retrieved January 14, 2011.
  32. ^ a b Bowen, Steve; Kerschner, Brian; Zheng Ng, Jin (October 2024). "Natural Catastrophe and Climate Report: Q3 2024" (PDF). ajg.com. Retrieved October 20, 2024.
  33. ^ "KCC estimates privately insured loss for Hurricane Hilary at $600m". Reinsurance News. August 29, 2023. Retrieved October 10, 2023.
  34. ^ Navarro, Myriam; Santos, Javier (November 11, 2018). "Ascienden a $10 mil millones los daños que causó 'Willa' en Nayarit" [The damages caused by 'Willa' in Nayarit amount to $10 billion]. La Jornada (in Spanish). Archived from the original on January 15, 2019. Retrieved January 14, 2019.
  35. ^ "South Texas Floods: October 17–22, 1998" (PDF). United States Department of Commerce. 1999. Archived (PDF) from the original on March 3, 2016. Retrieved February 11, 2007.
  36. ^ "Floods in Southeast Texas, October 1994" (PDF). United States Geological Survey. January 1995. p. 1. Archived (PDF) from the original on March 3, 2016. Retrieved October 1, 2008.
  37. ^ a b Austyn Gaffney; Emiliano Rodríguez Mega; Fredy Garcia (September 24, 2024). "Tropical Storm John Pummels Mexico's Pacific Coast". New York Times. Retrieved September 24, 2024.
  38. ^ Michael Rios; Verónica Calderón (September 26, 2024). "'Zombie' Hurricane John regains strength in Pacific, flooding parts of Mexico's southwestern coast". CNN. Retrieved November 17, 2024.
  39. ^ a b "Huracán John deja casi 3 veces más lluvia que Otis" [Hurricane John leaves almost three times more rain than Otis]. Meganoticias (in Mexican Spanish). September 28, 2024. Retrieved September 30, 2024.
  40. ^ "Precipitación acumulada (mm) del 22 al 28 de septiembre de 2024 por el huracán John [Accumulated precipitation (mm) from September 22 to 28, 2024, due to Hurricane John]". Servicio Meteorológico Nacional.
  41. ^ a b Noah Smith (October 2, 2024). "With Roads Washed Away by Hurricane John, First Responders Reach Stranded Patients by Air". Direct Relief. Retrieved November 16, 2024.
  42. ^ Félix Márquez (October 1, 2024). "Along Mexico's Pacific coast, flooding from Hurricane John left devastated towns and 17 dead". Associated Press. Retrieved November 17, 2024.
  43. ^ Jose Cortes (September 24, 2024). "Remnants of Hurricane John drench southern Mexico, leaving three dead". Reuters. Retrieved September 25, 2024.
  44. ^ a b c Mexico: Hurricane John - Flash Update No. 02, as of September 30, 2024 (Report). Reliefweb. September 30, 2024. Retrieved November 17, 2024.
  45. ^ a b "Sube a 29, cifra de fallecidos por el huracán John" [Death toll from Hurricane John rises to 29]. Meganoticias (in Mexican Spanish). September 30, 2024. Retrieved September 30, 2024.
  46. ^ Fernanda González (September 30, 2024). "Los huracanes 'John' y 'Helen' provocan crisis humanitaria y daños millonarios" [Hurricanes 'John' and 'Helen' cause humanitarian crisis and millions in damage]. WIRED (in Mexican Spanish). Retrieved November 17, 2024.
  47. ^ Vázquez Herrera, Olivia (September 24, 2024). "Reportan dos muertos en Guerrero tras impacto del Huracán John; "entró fuerte, con muchas lluvias", señaló AMLO". Infobae. Retrieved September 24, 2024.
  48. ^ "Hurricane John falls apart after causing deadly mudslides on Mexico's southern Pacific coast". AP News. September 24, 2024. Retrieved September 25, 2024.
  49. ^ Luis Alberto Cruz (September 24, 2024). "2 people are dead after John hits Mexico's Pacific coast as a major hurricane". Associated Press. Retrieved September 24, 2024.
  50. ^ Vanessa Buschschlüter (September 30, 2024). "Mexico counting dead from 'zombie storm' John". BBC News. Retrieved September 30, 2024.
  51. ^ "WCK blankets Mexico's Pacific Coast after 'zombie storm' - Hurricane John". World Central Kitchen. October 29, 2024. Retrieved November 17, 2024.
  52. ^ "Informa Bienestar avances en atención a población afectada por huracán John en Guerrero y Oaxaca" [Welfare reports progress in care for population affected by Hurricane John in Guerrero and Oaxaca] (Press release). Gobierno de México. Ministry of Welfare. October 27, 2024. Retrieved November 17, 2024.
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