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Next census of India

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16th census of India
← 2011 TBD 2031 →
General information
CountryIndia
AuthorityMinistry of Home Affairs
Websitecensusindia.gov.in

The 2025 census of India, or the 16th Indian census, is to be conducted in two phases, a house listing phase and a population enumeration phase. Although initially the house listing was to begin in April 2020 along with the updating of the National Population Register, and the population enumeration on 9 February 2021,[1] they have been continuously postponed. Initially the house listing was to be conducted between April and September 2020, with population enumeration in February 2021 and a revision round in March 2021. The reference date was to be 1 March 2021 in most of the states and 1 October 2020 for Jammu and Kashmir and some areas of Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand.[2][3] On 2 January 2023, Additional Registrar General of India communicated to all the states that the date of freezing of administrative boundaries had been extended till 30 June 2023.[4] The 16th census can only begin three months after the administrative boundaries have been frozen. The completion of the census in its two phases takes at least 11 months, so the possibility of the completion of this decennial census exercise in 2024 or early 2025 is ruled out, as the census was expected to begin in September 2024, but due to unexplained reasons, had still not started by early October 2024.[5] It was reported that month that the census would take place in 2025, with a decision on a caste census still not decided. It will also serve the purpose of redistibuting seats in the Lok Sabha for the 2029 national election.[6]

In September 2019, Union Home Minister Amit Shah had stated that the 2021 national census would be done fully digitally through a mobile phone application,[7] and will be carried out in 16 languages.[8] In February 2021, Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman allocated ₹37.68 billion (US$440 million) for the census in the 2021 Union budget of India.[9] It was delayed to 2022[10] and then further delayed to 2023[11] due to the COVID-19 pandemic in India. Following the postponement of the deadline of freezing administrative boundaries to 30 June 2023, and owing to the general elections in 2024, the census can now only take place in late 2024.[12] This was confirmed in July 2023, when the Government of India extended the deadline to freeze the administrative boundaries to 1 January 2024, ruling out the census exercise before the 2024 Indian general election.[13][14] On 20 September 2023, Union Home Minister Amit Shah informed during the discussion on Women's Reservation Bill that census and the delimitation exercise will take place after the Lok Sabha elections in 2024.[15][16] On 30 December 2023, the deadline to freeze the administrative boundaries was further extended to 30 June 2024, thereby postponing the census to at least October 2024 due to it requiring three months to identify and train enumerators.[17]

Information collection

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House-listings

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The House-listing schedule contains 31 questions:[18][19]

No. Information
1 Building Number (Municipal, local authority or census number)
2 Census House Number
3 Predominant material of floor, wall and roof of the census house
4 Ascertain use of census house
5 Condition of the census house
6 Household number
7 Total number of persons normally residing in the household
8 Name of the head of the household
9 Sex of the head of the household
10 Whether the head of the household belongs to SC/ST/Other
11 Ownership status of the census house
12 Number of dwelling rooms exclusively in possession of the household
13 Number of married couple(s) living in the household
14 Main source of drinking water
15 Availability of drinking water source
16 Main source of lighting
17 Access to latrine
18 Type of latrine
19 Waste water outlet
20 Availability of bathing facility
21 Availability of kitchen and LPG/PNG connection
22 Main fuel used for cooking
23 Radio/Transistor
24 Television
25 Access to Internet
26 Laptop/Computer
27 Telephone/Mobile phone/Smartphone
28 Bicycle/Scooter/Motorcycle/Moped
29 Car/Jeep/Van
30 Main cereal consumed in the household
31 Mobile number

Population enumeration

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The population enumeration follows the housing census within a gap of six to eight months. During the second phase of census taking, each person is enumerated and her/his individual particulars like age, marital status, religion, schedule caste/schedule tribe, mother tongue, education level, disability, economic activity, migration, fertility (for female) are collected.[20]

Digital enumeration

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In April 2019, at the conference of data users it was announced that 3.3 million enumerators would be enlisted and that they would be encouraged to use their own smart phones, although a paper option will also be available, which the enumerators will then need to submit electronically.[2] During the census exercise a census portal will be opened, allowing individuals to self-enumerate after logging in using their phone numbers.[21] The building of a mobile app for conducting the census along with the creation of the census portal for information collection is aimed at doing away with paper records in the exercise, making India along with Vietnam and Eswatini, one of the few countries who have tried to do so.[22]

NPR

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National Population Register will be linked to this census.[23][24] NPR was supposed to be updated along with the first phase of census between April and September 2020,[25][26] however that too has been postponed indefinitely.[27] On 24 December 2019, the Central Government approved ₹39.41 billion (equivalent to ₹49 billion or US$570 million in 2023) for updating the NPR across India.[28]

Caste enumeration

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The 15th Indian census, taken in 2011, attempted to estimate the population based on Socio-Economic and Caste Status for the first time since 1931. However, as the enumeration was based on recording the respondents' declaration, it led to creation of hundreds of thousands of caste/subcaste categories. For the 16th Indian census, the government was instead considering enumeration based on a list of educationally or socially disadvantaged castes (known as Other Backward Class) reported by each state.[29] However, in February 2020, the Indian government rejected the demand for OBC data as part of the 2021 census.[30][31]

In September 2018, the then Home Minister, Rajnath Singh, announced that the 2021 census will have Other Backward Class (OBC) data, for the first time since the 1931 census.[32] Despite this announcement, the questionnaire presented in July 2019 did not have a specific OBC category.[33] Several state legislative assemblies passed resolutions for collecting OBC data including the Maharashtra Legislative Assembly,[34] Odisha Legislative Assembly,[35] and Bihar Legislative Assembly,[36] while the government of Uttar Pradesh, rejected the opposition's demand to pass such a resolution.[37] On 29 February 2020, central government refused to conduct caste census despite demands from states.[38] Despite Centre's rejection, Maharashtra legislators were adamant for caste based census at least in the state.[39] Protest march in support of OBC census was carried out in Jammu and Kashmir.[40] Minister of State Social Justice and Empowerment, Ramdas Athawale also demanded carrying of census counting every single caste in India.[41] On 6 June 2022 the Bihar government issued a notification to conduct a caste survey, and began collecting data on 7 January following the dismissal of petitions against it in the supreme court.[42] On 2 October the Bihar government released preliminary data from the survey,[43] with the full detailed report being publicly released in the state assembly on 7 November 2023.[44] On 26 June 2024, the Tamil Nadu legislative assembly unanimously adopted a resolution urging the union government to immediately commence census work along with a caste based population census, however the Chief Minister M.K. Stalin declined to conduct a Bihar style caste survey, as any changes made to reservation based on a survey by the state government could be struck down by the courts, while contending that a full-fledged census can be legally only conducted by the Union government under the Census Act, 1948.[45][46] In July 2024, Union Minister Chirag Paswan backed the demand for conducting a caste census as part of the 2021 census, however he opposed its data from being publicly revealed as he believed it will lead to division in society.[47]

During the 2024 general elections, the inclusion of a caste census became a key demand for the opposition INDIA alliance led by the Congress.[48]

Delays

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The 2021 census is the first census to ever be postponed in India since its beginning under the British in 1872. Even during the Second World War, the census of India was held in 1941 as scheduled, even if the tabulations of the results of the 1941 census were incomplete compared to the detailed reports published after the 1931 census. Before the census, according to the rules, the boundaries of administrative units are to be frozen before conducting a census, this was initially supposed to have happened on 31 December 2019, with the states having to update these changes to the Registrar General of India by 31 January 2020. The house listing phase or the first phase of the census along with the NPR was to be conducted between April 1, 2020, and September 30, 2020.[49] However following the COVID-19 pandemic, the Union government postponed the house listing phase of the census exercise,[50] before the census in its entirety was postponed to 2022[51] However the census was never conducted in 2022 as it was repeatedly delayed. The deadline to freeze administrative boundaries were first extended to 31 December 2020, then to 31 March 2021, then further extended to 30 June, then to 31 December of the same year until it was extended to 30 June 2022, after which it was extended to 31 December 2022, and then another extension was granted till 30 June 2023.[12] The exercise was then given a further extension to 1 January 2024,[13] this was followed by another extension to 30 June 2024.[17] The official rationale for all the nine extensions has been the COVID-19 pandemic, however this has been criticized as during 2021–22, twelve countries in Asia were able to conduct their decennial census including neighbouring Bangladesh and Nepal.[52] An analysis by The Hindu found that 143 countries had conducted their censuses after March 2020, with India being one of the only two countries which are yet to conduct their regular census exercise among the ten most populous countries in the world, with the other being Nigeria.[53]

The delays have also been attributed by analysts to the linking of the census with the NPR exercise which is seen as the first step towards the controversial National Register of Citizens (NRC), the decision to update the NPR and discussions on imposing a nationwide NRC were some of the key issues taken up by the CAA-NRC protests. The demands for a caste census have also been attributed as one of the reasons behind the continuous delays.[54]

The continuous postponement of the census has led to many commentators and newspaper editorials demanding for it to conducted immediately as the information from census is the only way to gain granular data on the country, as sample surveys can only provide state or countrywide data rather than street or village or block level data, with some of these surveys also relying on census data. The lack of census data is said to be a major handicap for policy-makers as without it, they have to rely on outdated census data for local level planning. Many key welfare interventions in India such as the Public Distribution System and the NFSA are reliant on census data, and having outdated data has led to the exclusion of many potential beneficiaries from them. Without data from the census, it is also difficult to validate the outcomes of government interventions using key metrics such as literacy, housing, fertility, urbanization, etc.[55][56][57][54][58] The lack of updated census data also affects the quantum of reservation for SC/ST segments of the population and the delimitation of constituencies for elections.[59]

Final Results

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The Ministry of Home Affairs has announced that the final data from the 2024 Census of India is expected to be released in March 2026. As the census takes 18 months to complete, the Narendra Modi government has made it a priority to gather up-to-date data information on the population and country which it believes would be consistent with its policies on development as of his 3rd term in office, as there has been significant gaps in data collection since the 2011 Census.[60][61]

See also

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References

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  1. ^ "Cabinet approves conduct of Census of India 2021 and updation of National Population Register". pmindia.gov.in. 24 December 2019. Archived from the original on 4 July 2023. Retrieved 4 July 2023.
  2. ^ a b "Census 2021 will be done via mobile app, says officials". The New Indian Express. 10 April 2019. Retrieved 17 July 2019.
  3. ^ "Next Census Of India Will Be Carried Out In 2021". NDTV.com. Retrieved 4 July 2023.
  4. ^ Singh, Vijaita (5 January 2023). "Decennial census put off till September to freeze boundaries". The Hindu.
  5. ^ "India to begin delayed census in Sept as Modi looks to plug data gaps, sources say". Reuters. 21 August 2024.
  6. ^ https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/delayed-for-years-census-process-to-start-in-2025-101730140255388.html
  7. ^ "Digital Census In 2021; Amit Shah Proposes Idea Of Multipurpose ID Card". NDTV. 23 September 2019.
  8. ^ "Census 2021 to be conducted in 16 languages". pib.gov.in. Retrieved 24 September 2021.
  9. ^ "Budget 2021: Census to go digital for the first time with Rs 3,768 crore allocation". India Today. 1 February 2021.
  10. ^ "Government likely to postpone census to 2022". The Hindu. 11 May 2021.
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  12. ^ a b "Census to be delayed again, deadline for freezing of boundaries extended to June 30". The Indian Express. 6 January 2023. Retrieved 16 January 2023.
  13. ^ a b "Census to be delayed again, deadline for freezing administrative boundaries pushed to January 1, 2024". 2 July 2023.
  14. ^ Singh, Vijaita (July 2023). "With new date to fix boundaries, Census unlikely before 2024 Lok Sabha polls". The Hindu.
  15. ^ "Census, delimitation exercise after election: Amit Shah on women's quota bill". 20 September 2023.
  16. ^ "Census a must for women's reservation Bill to become reality". The Hindu. 19 September 2023.
  17. ^ a b Singh, Vijaita (30 December 2023). "With announcement of new notification, Census to be delayed till at least October 2024". The Hindu. ISSN 0971-751X. Retrieved 20 July 2024.
  18. ^ "Census 2021: 31 Questions You Will be Asked in First Phase". India News, Breaking News | India.com. 16 January 2020. Archived from the original on 16 January 2020. Retrieved 24 September 2021.
  19. ^ "India - ORGI Gazette Notification:2020 (Period of Houselisting Operation and Questions in Houselisting & Housing Census)". censusindia.gov.in. Retrieved 4 July 2023.
  20. ^ "CENSUS DIVISION". censusindia.gov.in.
  21. ^ Livemint (10 August 2021). "From 'pen-paper to digital': How India's first digital census will be conducted". mint. Retrieved 4 July 2023.
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  23. ^ Awasthi, Prashasti (6 March 2020). "Preparations for census 2021, NPR update to begin from April 1: Ministry". The Hindu Business Line. Retrieved 7 March 2020.
  24. ^ "No training being imparted for NPR exercise: Punjab government". The Hindu. 7 March 2020. ISSN 0971-751X. Retrieved 7 March 2020.
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  27. ^ Singh, Vijaita (24 May 2023). "Update NPR to enumerate self during next Census". The Hindu.
  28. ^ "Cabinet approves Rs 3,941 crore for NPR, Rs 8,754 crore for Census 2021". Business Standard. 24 December 2019.
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  30. ^ "Real reason no govt wants OBC count in Census – it will reveal inconvenient truths". The Print. 7 April 2021.
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  33. ^ Tripathi, Rahul (31 July 2019). "Despite promise, no OBC category yet in census 2021". The Economic Times. Retrieved 7 March 2020.
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  36. ^ "Bihar assembly passes resolution for caste-based Census in 2021". Deccan Herald. 27 February 2020. Retrieved 7 March 2020.
  37. ^ Pioneer, The (29 February 2020). "UP govt rejects demand for caste-based census". The Pioneer. Retrieved 7 March 2020.
  38. ^ Ghildiyal, Subodh (29 February 2020). "Govt rebuffs plea on Census caste data". The Times of India. Retrieved 7 March 2020.
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  40. ^ "Protest rally taken out for implementation of central reservation policy". Daily Excelsior. 4 March 2020.
  41. ^ Botekar, Abhilash (3 March 2020). "Athawale calls for caste-based census". The Times of India. Retrieved 7 March 2020.
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  43. ^ Tewary, Amarnath (4 October 2023). "The impact of the Bihar caste survey | Explained". The Hindu. ISSN 0971-751X. Retrieved 20 July 2024.
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  47. ^ "'Will Create Division': Chirag Backs Caste Census, But Says Data Should Not Be Made Public". Outlook India. 20 July 2024. Retrieved 20 July 2024.
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  54. ^ a b "No census before 2024 elections?". Hindustan Times. 6 January 2023. Retrieved 16 January 2023.
  55. ^ "Postponing India's census is terrible for the country". The Economist. ISSN 0013-0613. Retrieved 16 January 2023.
  56. ^ "Conduct census immediately". Deccan Herald. 16 January 2023. Retrieved 16 January 2023.
  57. ^ "Urgent need to get on with census process". The New Indian Express. 10 January 2023. Retrieved 16 January 2023.
  58. ^ "The consequences of a delayed census". Free Press Journal. Retrieved 16 January 2023.
  59. ^ Munjal, Diksha (9 January 2023). "Explained | The delay in the decennial Census". The Hindu. ISSN 0971-751X. Retrieved 16 January 2023.
  60. ^ "Long Delayed Population Census may start in September". Indian Express. Retrieved 4 September 2024.
  61. ^ "India's delayed Census to begin in September 2024 with results expected by March 2026". Hindustan Times. Retrieved 4 September 2024.
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