2020 Michigan Democratic presidential primary
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147 delegates (125 pledged, 22 unpledged) to the Democratic National Convention The number of pledged delegates won is determined by the popular vote | |||||||||||||||||||
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| Elections in Michigan |
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The 2020 Michigan Democratic presidential primary took place on March 10, 2020, as one of several states voting the week after Super Tuesday in the Democratic Party primaries for the 2020 presidential election. The Michigan primary was an open primary,[1] with the state awarding 147 delegates towards the 2020 Democratic National Convention, of which 125 were pledged delegates allocated on the basis of the results of the primary.
Former vice president Joe Biden decisively won the primary and every county in the state, getting almost 53% of the vote and 73 delegates. Senator Bernie Sanders received around 36% of the vote and 52 delegates, marking a clear regression in support for him from 2016, when he edged out Hillary Clinton by 1.42% and won 73 of the state's 83 counties.[2] Biden's victory was powered by support from African Americans, older voters, working class voters, and moderate voters.[3]
Despite losing every county and almost all municipalities, Sanders was still able to win some of the major cities in the state including: Ann Arbor, Dearborn, Grand Rapids, Lansing and Kalamazoo.[4]
Procedure
[edit]Michigan was one of six states (along with Democrats Abroad) which held primaries on March 10, 2020, one week after Super Tuesday.[5] Voting took place throughout the state from 7:00 a.m. until 8:00 p.m. local time. In the open primary, candidates had to meet a threshold of 15 percent at the congressional district or statewide level in order to be considered viable. The 125 pledged delegates to the 2020 Democratic National Convention were allocated proportionally on the basis of the results of the primary. Of these, between 4 and 9[6] were allocated to each of the state's 14 congressional districts and another 16 were allocated to party leaders and elected officials (PLEO delegates), in addition to 27 at-large delegates.[7] The March primary as part of Stage I on the primary timetable received no bonus delegates, in order to disperse the primaries between more different date clusters and keep too many states from hoarding on a March date.[8]
After district conventions on May 16, 2020, during which district-level delegates were selected, the state central committee meeting subsequently was held on June 13, 2020, to vote on the 27 at-large and 16 pledged PLEO delegates for the Democratic National Convention. The delegation also included 22 unpledged PLEO delegates: 12 members of the Democratic National Committee, 9 members of Congress (both senators and 7 representatives), and the governor Gretchen Whitmer.[7]
| Pledged national convention delegates | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Type | Del. | Type | Del. |
| CD1 | 5 | CD8 | 6 |
| CD2 | 5 | CD9 | 7 |
| CD3 | 5 | CD10 | 4 |
| CD4 | 4 | CD11 | 7 |
| CD5 | 6 | CD12 | 7 |
| CD6 | 5 | CD13 | 7 |
| CD7 | 5 | CD14 | 9 |
| PLEO | 27 | At-large | 16 |
| Total pledged delegates | 125 | ||
Candidates
[edit]The following people have been included on the list issued by the Michigan Secretary of State for the presidential primary.[9]
Running
Withdrawn
There was also an uncommitted option on the ballot.[10]
Polling
[edit]| Polling aggregation | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Source of poll aggregation | Date updated | Dates polled | Joe Biden |
Bernie Sanders |
Tulsi Gabbard |
Other/ Undecided[e] | |
| 270 to Win[11] | Mar 10, 2020 | Mar 4–9, 2020 | 57.0% | 32.3% | 1.3% | 9.4% | |
| RealClear Politics[12] | Mar 10, 2020 | Mar 4–9, 2020 | 55.7% | 33.3% | 1.3% | 9.7% | |
| FiveThirtyEight[13] | Mar 10, 2020 | until Mar 9, 2020[f] | 55.3% | 31.9% | 1.2% | 11.6% | |
| Average | 56.0% | 32.5% | 1.3% | 10.2% | |||
| Michigan primary results (March 10, 2020) | 52.9% | 36.4% | 0.6% | 10.1% | |||
| Tabulation of individual polls of the 2020 Michigan Democratic primary | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[g] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden |
Michael Bloomberg |
Cory Booker |
Pete Buttigieg |
Kamala Harris |
Amy Klobuchar |
Beto O'Rourke |
Bernie Sanders |
Elizabeth Warren |
Andrew Yang |
Other | Undecided | |
| Swayable[14] | Mar 9, 2020 | 3,126 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 62% | – | – | – | – | – | – | 28% | – | – | 10%[h] | – | |
| AtlasIntel[15] | Mar 7–9, 2020 | 528 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 3% | – | – | – | – | – | 40% | 1% | – | 3%[i] | 5% | |
| Data for Progress[16] | Mar 7–9, 2020 | 320 (LV) | ± 5.5% | 59% | – | – | – | – | – | – | 38% | – | – | 2%[j] | – | |
| Mitchell Research & Communications[17] | Mar 8, 2020 | 602 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 54% | 1% | – | 1% | – | 1% | – | 33% | 3% | – | 3%[k] | 5% | |
| Target Insyght[18] | Mar 8, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 65% | 2% | – | – | – | 1% | – | 24% | 3% | – | 3%[l] | 1% | |
| Concord Public Opinion Partners/ The Welcome Party[19] |
Mar 7–8, 2020 | 305 (LV) | – | 54% | – | – | – | – | – | – | 23% | – | – | 1%[m] | 22% | |
| YouGov/Yahoo News[20] | Mar 6–8, 2020 | –(RV)[n] | ± 5.8% | 54% | – | – | – | – | – | – | 42% | – | – | – | – | |
| Monmouth University[21] | Mar 5–8, 2020 | 411 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 51% | 3% | – | <1% | – | <1% | – | 36% | 1% | – | 7%[o] | 2% | |
| ROI Rocket[22] | Mar 4–8, 2020 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 55% | – | – | – | – | – | – | 45% | – | – | – | – | |
| The Progress Campaign (D)[23][1] | Mar 3–7, 2020 | 417 (RV) | ± 4.7% | 51% | – | – | – | – | – | – | 44% | – | – | 1% | 4%[p] | |
| EPIC-MRA/Detroit Free Press[24] | Mar 4–6, 2020 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 51% | – | – | – | – | – | – | 27% | – | – | 9%[q] | 13%[r] | |
| Warren withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
| Bloomberg withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
| Klobuchar withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
| Buttigieg withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
| GlenGariff Group Inc./Detroit News/WDIV-TV[25] | Feb 28 – Mar 2, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 29% | 11% | – | 6% | – | 3% | – | 23% | 7% | – | 6%[s] | 16% | |
| South Carolina primary; Steyer withdraws from the race after close of polls | ||||||||||||||||
| YouGov/University of Wisconsin-Madison[26] | Feb 11–20, 2020 | 662 (LV) | – | 16% | 13% | – | 11% | – | 8% | – | 25% | 13% | – | – | 14%[t] | |
| New Hampshire primary; Yang withdraws from the race after close of polls | ||||||||||||||||
| Baldwin Wallace University/Oakland University/Ohio Northern University[27] |
Jan 8–20, 2020 | 477 (RV) | – | 27% | 9.1% | – | 6.3% | – | 1.9% | – | 21.6% | 13.6% | 3.5% | 5.3%[u] | 10.6% | |
| Booker withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
| Harris withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
| Bloomberg announces his candidacy | ||||||||||||||||
| Emerson College[28] | Oct 31 – Nov 3, 2019 | 454 | ± 4.6% | 34% | – | 3% | 8% | 3% | 0% | – | 28% | 19% | 2% | 3%[v] | – | |
| O'Rourke withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
| Siena Research/New York Times[29] | Oct 13–26, 2019 | 203 | – | 30% | – | 0% | 3% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 17% | 21% | 1% | 1%[w] | 23% | |
| Kaiser Family Foundation[30] | Sep 23 – Oct 15, 2019 | 208 (LV) | – | 19% | – | 1% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 15% | 25% | 1% | 0%[x] | 27% | |
| Denno Research[31] | Sep 21–24, 2019 | 217 | – | 27% | – | 1% | 4% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 12% | 23% | 1% | 4%[y] | 23%[z] | |
| Climate Nexus[32] | Jul 14–17, 2019 | 324 (LV) | – | 35% | – | 2% | 4% | 8% | 1% | 1% | 16% | 14% | 1% | 2%[aa] | 13%[ab] | |
| Zogby Analytics[33] | May 23–29, 2019 | 268 | ± 6.0% | 27% | – | 1% | 9% | 7% | 1% | 4% | 18% | 8% | 2% | 5%[ac] | – | |
| Denno Research[34] | May 8–10, 2019 | 235 | – | 37% | – | 3% | 5% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 16% | 9% | 0% | 4%[ad] | 23% | |
| Biden announces his candidacy | ||||||||||||||||
| Buttigieg announces his candidacy | ||||||||||||||||
| O'Rourke announces his candidacy | ||||||||||||||||
| Emerson College[35] | Mar 7–10, 2019 | 317 | ± 5.5% | 40% | – | 3% | 0% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 23% | 11% | – | 4%[ae] | – | |
Results
[edit]| Candidate | Votes | % | Delegates[37] |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden | 840,360 | 52.93 | 73 |
| Bernie Sanders | 576,926 | 36.34 | 52 |
| Michael Bloomberg (withdrawn)[b] | 73,464 | 4.63 | |
| Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn)[b] | 26,148 | 1.65 | |
| Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn)[c] | 22,462 | 1.41 | |
| Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn)[c] | 11,018 | 0.69 | |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 9,461 | 0.60 | |
| Andrew Yang (withdrawn)[a] | 2,380 | 0.15 | |
| Tom Steyer (withdrawn)[c] | 1,732 | 0.11 | |
| Michael Bennet (withdrawn)[a] | 1,536 | 0.10 | |
| Cory Booker (withdrawn) | 840 | 0.05 | |
| Joe Sestak (withdrawn) | 757 | 0.05 | |
| Marianne Williamson (withdrawn) | 719 | 0.05 | |
| John Delaney (withdrawn)[d] | 464 | 0.03 | |
| Julian Castro (withdrawn) | 306 | 0.02 | |
| Uncommitted | 19,106 | 1.20 | |
| Total | 1,587,679 | 100% | 125 |
See also
[edit]Notes
[edit]Additional candidates
- ^ a b c d Candidate withdrew during absentee voting, following the New Hampshire primary.
- ^ a b c d Candidate withdrew during absentee voting, following Super Tuesday.
- ^ a b c d e f Candidate withdrew during absentee voting, before Super Tuesday.
- ^ a b Candidate withdrew in January, shortly after absentee voting had begun.
- ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined
- ^ FiveThirtyEight aggregates polls with a trendline regression of polls rather than a strict average of recent polls.
- ^ Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ Gabbard with 1%; "Other" with 9%
- ^ Gabbard with 2%; "Other" with 1%
- ^ Gabbard with 2%
- ^ Steyer with 1%; "Someone else" with 2%
- ^ Steyer with 0%; "Other" with 1%; "Uncommitted" with 3%
- ^ Gabbard with 1%
- ^ Part of a 1,750 registered voter poll of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin
- ^ Gabbard with 1%; Steyer with 0%; "Uncommitted" with 6%
- ^ Listed as "undecided/would not vote"
- ^ "Other" with 9%
- ^ "Declined" with 13%
- ^ Gabbard with 1%; Bennet, Booker, Delaney, Steyer, and Williamson with 0%; Castro and Sestak with no voters; "Refused" with 5%
- ^ "Not sure/other" with 14%
- ^ Steyer with 1.7%; Delaney with 1.6%; Bennet with 0.8%; Gabbard with 0.7%; Patrick with 0.5%
- ^ Gabbard with 1%; Bennet, Bullock, Castro, Delaney, Sestak, and Williamson with 0%; Someone else with 2%
- ^ Gabbard with 1%; others with 0%
- ^ Castro and Steyer with no voters; someone else with 0%
- ^ Bennet with 2%; Gabbard, Delaney with 1%; Bullock, Castro, Messam, Ryan, Sestak, Steyer and Williamson with 0%
- ^ Labelled as "Other/unsure"
- ^ Gabbard and Steyer with 1%; Bennet, de Blasio, Bullock, Castro, Delaney, Gillibrand, Gravel, Hickenlooper, Inslee, Messam, Moulton, Ryan, Sestak and Williamson with 0%
- ^ Labelled as "Other/unsure"
- ^ Castro, Delaney, Gabbard, Gillibrand, and Hickenlooper with 1%; Inslee with 0%
- ^ Bennet, Gabbard, Gillibrand, and Swalwell with 1%; Castro, Delaney, Gravel, Hickenlooper, Inslee, Messam, Moulton, Ryan, Williamson, and Yang with 0%
- ^ Gillibrand and Hickenlooper with 1%; Castro, Gabbard, and Inslee with 0%; others with 3%
References
[edit]- ^ "Election 2020 — Democratic Delegate Count". Real Clear Politics. March 10, 2020. Retrieved March 10, 2020.
- ^ "Live Primary Election Results: Michigan, Washington and More". New York Times. March 10, 2020. Retrieved March 10, 2020.
- ^ "Live results: 2020 Michigan Democratic presidential primary". Washington Post. Retrieved February 21, 2021.
- ^ "20 Presidential Election Results - Michigan".
- ^ Putnam, Josh. "The 2020 Presidential Primary Calendar". Frontloading HQ. Retrieved June 23, 2019.
- ^ "2020 Delegate Selection Plan FINAL" (PDF). Michigan Democratic Party. Retrieved March 5, 2020.
- ^ a b "Michigan Democratic Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. May 3, 2019. Retrieved June 23, 2019.
- ^ "Democratic Timing Penalties and Bonuses". The Green Papers. November 24, 2021. Retrieved March 19, 2022.
- ^ "SOS—Upcoming Elections". Michigan Secretary of State. January 29, 2021. Retrieved March 28, 2022.
- ^ Barrett, Malachi (November 8, 2019). "Michigan Secretary of State issues 2020 presidential primary candidate list". mlive. Retrieved March 29, 2022.
- ^ 270 to Win
- ^ RealClear Politics
- ^ FiveThirtyEight
- ^ Swayable Archived 2020-03-18 at the Wayback Machine
- ^ AtlasIntel
- ^ Data for Progress
- ^ Mitchell Research & Communications
- ^ Target Insyght
- ^ Concord Public Opinion Partners/
The Welcome Party - ^ YouGov/Yahoo News
- ^ Monmouth University
- ^ ROI Rocket
- ^ The Progress Campaign (D)
- ^ EPIC-MRA/Detroit Free Press
- ^ GlenGariff Group Inc./Detroit News/WDIV-TV
- ^ YouGov/University of Wisconsin-Madison
- ^ Baldwin Wallace University/Oakland
University/Ohio Northern University - ^ Emerson College
- ^ Siena Research/New York Times
- ^ Kaiser Family Foundation
- ^ Denno Research
- ^ Climate Nexus
- ^ Zogby Analytics
- ^ Denno Research Archived 2019-05-29 at the Wayback Machine
- ^ Emerson College Archived 2019-03-10 at the Wayback Machine
- ^ "2020 Michigan Election Results". Michigan Secretary of State. Retrieved June 11, 2020.
- ^ "Associated Press Election Services - Delegate Tracker". Associated Press. Retrieved November 23, 2022.