Draft:Earth4All
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Earth4All is an international initiative launched in 2022 that aims to promote transformational systems change for sustainable development and social equity within planetary boundaries..[1] The project builds upon the legacy of The Limits to Growth report from 1972 and is convened by the Club of Rome, the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, the Stockholm Resilience Centre and the BI Norwegian Business School.
Background
[edit]The initiative emerged from discussions among economic thinkers, scientists, advocates and policy experts about the need for new models to address 21st-century challenges. It was conceived as a follow-up to the influential Limits to Growth study, which used computer modelling to examine the implications of exponential economic and population growth with finite resources.
Main components
[edit]Earth for All: A Survival Guide for Humanity
[edit]The initiative's cornerstone publication, Earth for All: A Survival Guide for Humanity (2022)[2], presents analysis and recommendations based on state-of-the-art computer modelling. The book is co-authored by Sandrine Dixson-Declève, Owen Gaffney, Jayati Ghosh, Jørgen Randers (co-author of The Limits to Growth), Johan Rockström and Per Espen Stoknes, with a foreword by climate activist Elizabeth Wathuti. It outlines five "extraordinary turnarounds" needed to achieve sustainable prosperity and wellbeing on a finite planet:
- Eliminate poverty
- Reduce inequality
- Empower women
- Transform food systems
- Transform energy systems
The analysis stresses that these turnarounds must be implemented simultaneously in order to achieve the desired outcomes.
Alongside the five turnarounds, the book proposes a transformation of the current economic system to one that prioritises human and planetary wellbeing above economic growth.
The book has been published in 11 languages and the Argentinian version was recognised in 2024 as a book of legislative interest by the City of Buenos Aires[3]. A further book applying the Earth4All modelling to Germany, Earth for All: Germany was published in October 2024 and reached number nine on the Der Spiegel nonfiction bestseller list[4].
System dynamics modelling
[edit]Earth4All employs system dynamics modelling to analyse potential future scenarios. The model is based on the World4 computer simulation model, an updated version of the World3 model used to produce The Limits to Growth. The project developed two main scenarios:
- "Too Little Too Late" - modelling current policy trajectories
- "Giant Leap" - modelling transformative policy changes
These scenarios are detailed in the book Earth for All: A Survival Guide for Humanity and are used by the Earth4All initiative as a basis for policy proposals to achieve the "Giant Leap" scenario. In this scenario, rapid global cooperation to enact the five "extraordinary turnarounds" results in stabilised temperatures, reduced material use, and the end of extreme poverty. According to the model, in this scenario social tension falls, inequality is reduced, and wellbeing rises.[2]
The computer modelling, alongside the Millennium Institute's iSDG model[5], has since been used to model these scenarios for Kenya[6], Germany[7] and Austria[8], and to analyse pathways towards the SDGs in Sub-Saharan Africa[9] and globally.[10]
The global[11] and regional[12] models are available open source and are subject to ongoing academic analysis and discussion[13][14][15].
Reception and impact
[edit]The book and initiative have generated discussion across academic[13][14], policy, and public spheres since its launch. It was featured prominently at the 2023 European Parliament "Beyond Growth" conference, with Executive Chair Sandrine Dixson-Declève giving a keynote address[16]. Its 2024 research[17] into public attitudes to progressive tax policies was quoted by influential economist Gabriel Zucman in support of a G20 initiative for a global wealth tax[18][19]
Its analysis has influenced a broad range of organisations and initiatives, from H&M Foundation[20][21] to the European Youth Orchestra, who based its 2023 tour on the initiative[22]. In 2023, Italian newspaper La Repubblica dedicated its annual Green&Blue festival to Earth4All.[23][24]
References
[edit]- ^ Jessop, Simon (September 5, 2022). "Tackling inequality key to climate fight - study". Reuters. Retrieved 9 January 2025.
- ^ a b Dixson-Decleve, Sandrine (2022). Earth for All: A Survival Guide for Humanity. Owen Gaffney, Jayati Ghosh, Jorgen Randers, Johan Rockstrom, Per Espen Stoknes (1st ed.). Gabriola Island: New Society Publishers, Limited. ISBN 978-0-86571-986-6.
- ^ Argentina, Club de Roma (2024-12-19). "El libro "La Tierra para Todos" es declarado de Interés Legislativo en Buenos Aires". Club de Roma Arg. (in Spanish). Retrieved 2025-01-09.
- ^ Institut, Wuppertal. "Earth for All Deutschland: Jetzt auch als Hörbuch erhältlich". wupperinst.org (in German). Retrieved 2025-01-09.
- ^ Onasanya, Adedoyin (2023-06-22). "Assessing Earth4All's 5 Turnarounds with the iSDG Model". millennium2024. Retrieved 2025-01-09.
- ^ "Kenya could eradicate poverty and achieve economic prosperity by 2050 – and Kenyan citizens strongly support bold and immediate action - Earth4All". Retrieved 2025-01-09.
- ^ "Earth for All Germany: Towards a future for all - Earth4All". Retrieved 2025-01-09.
- ^ "A new vision for Austria: From Too Little Too Late to a Giant Leap for sustainability - Earth4All". Retrieved 2025-01-09.
- ^ "How Sub-Saharan Africa can achieve SDGs by 2100 - CNBC Africa". www.cnbcafrica.com. Retrieved 2025-01-09.
- ^ "SDGs for All: Strategic Scenarios. Earth4All System Dynamics Modelling of SDG Progress". www.stockholmresilience.org. 2024-10-16. Retrieved 2025-01-09.
- ^ "Box". stockholmuniversity.app.box.com. Archived from the original on 2024-07-18. Retrieved 2025-01-09.
- ^ "e4a-regional (3871)". Kumu. 2024-04-29. Retrieved 2025-01-09.
- ^ a b Feder, Christophe; Callegari, Beniamino; Collste, David (2024-04-01). "The system dynamics approach for a global evolutionary analysis of sustainable development". Journal of Evolutionary Economics. 34 (2): 351–374. doi:10.1007/s00191-024-00866-6. ISSN 1432-1386.
- ^ a b Crescenzi, Pierluigi; Gambosi, Giorgio; Nasti, Lucia; Rossi, Aurora; Natale, Emanuele (2024). "A sensitivity analysis of the Earth for all model: Getting the giant leap scenario with fewer policies". Journal of Industrial Ecology. 28 (6): 1481–1492. doi:10.1111/jiec.13582. ISSN 1530-9290.
- ^ "The science behind Earth4All". 2023-05-21. Retrieved 2025-01-09.
- ^ The Club of Rome (2023-05-15). Beyond Growth opening plenary - Limits to Growth: where do we stand and where do we go from here?. Retrieved 2025-01-09 – via YouTube.
- ^ "Global Survey 2024 - Earth4All". 2024-06-23. Retrieved 2025-01-09.
- ^ Elliott, Larry (2024-06-25). "International scheme to tax billionaires' wealth technically feasible, study finds". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 2025-01-09.
- ^ Zucman, Gabriel (2024-08-06). "Taxing the Superrich Is More Possible – and More Necessary – Than Ever | by Gabriel Zucman". Project Syndicate. Retrieved 2025-01-09.
- ^ "Gathering the industry to co-create for a just and fair net-zero future – H&M Foundation". hmfoundation.com. 2024-10-23. Retrieved 2025-01-09.
- ^ "Our vision – H&M Foundation". hmfoundation.com. 2024-10-10. Retrieved 2025-01-09.
- ^ "European Union Youth Orchestra". euyo.eu. Retrieved 2025-01-09.
- ^ "La prima giornata del festival - Pichetto Fratin: "Dobbiamo arrivare ad una produzione di energia per due terzi da rinnovabili"". HuffPost Italia (in Italian). 2023-06-05. Retrieved 2025-01-09.
- ^ "Festival Greenandblue 2023". la Repubblica (in Italian). Retrieved 2025-01-09.
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